angle of incidence

there is a law that might occasionally apply to forex..... the angle of incidence == the angle of reflection...... the weak link of that law is the reflecting surface....

it will be interesting to see if the world banks recent agreement as to the yen can provide such a surface.....

this is meant as long range planning..... will add more this weekend, unless today's nfp breaks the mirror that is...... in which case it's 7 more years of bad luck.......h

if ya have ever shot long distances, 1000 yards or so, you'll know there are many factors that must be considered long before the safety is ever touched......

assume those were met......

let's first consider the cadjpy...... it was 80 the other day and 120 a few years back......

that's quite a move ...... due in part because of the canadian interest rates decline..... odds are they will rise at some point in the future......

the overnight rate is 1 now, if we aim at 4% a realistic target might be a cad/jpy of 100........

what would help us in this would be to lower our average price..... and i mean lower to a price the world has yet to see...... we might attempt to raise the total lots, but the real focus should be to lower the average price..... or least that is how it appears to me.......

segregating the cadjpy trades should allow this......

comparable plans on other pairs will follow......h

the pound is in pretty much the same boat...... or should i say the same house of cards, as all this hinges on the world supporting the yen......

the gbp/jpy was 122 the other day...... has been 119 a few years back...... and 6 months prior to 119 it was 214.......

the bank of england says rates now are .5 and back then, 214, they were 10 times higher......

so if we shoot for a 4% rate, a long shot indeed, the gbp/jpy might be in the 200 neighborhood.....

over lookin any guilt by association , ie euro, it seems to me a worthwhile voyage...... or gamble depending on your view...... again, the need to get the average price below the prior 119 low would be a positive.......h

the aussie d is a horse of a different color..... and must be looked at as so......

commodities lead..... both up and down...... in the business cycle basic/raw material producers will improve first...... austraila is and has.....

rba rates now are 4.75 ...... were 4 times higher in 91...... but 6 seems more sensible today......

with that in mind it makes me wonder how much near term a/j interest rate powder is left.....

lookin at the chart, we're about 2000 pips from the top and 3000 pips from the bottom...... so averaging down below the low is out of the question......

the a/j was 80 the other day...... and 104 back in 08, just before the smart money learned the true meaning of, "there'll be hell to pay"...... should have followed patience's advice back then..... ssshhhhh...........

100 appears to be a possible target....... but for sure, need to study on it abit more........h

as opposed to other currencys, it seems to me when considering the chf to the jpy it's more like comparing apples to apples..... both have lower rates and both are safehavens....... as witnessed by the cci did not hit -300.......

it was 105 in 08 and 6 months later 75..... almost dead in the middle now.....

not sure how to approach it....... perhaps a rate of 1% might bring chf/jpy of 95........ studyin on it......h


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chf.................. now 0.25% .... prior 0.50% last change on 03-12-2009

http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-12-1014.jpg


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jpy......................... now 0.10 % .... prior 0.10% last change on 10-05-2010

http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-12-1012.jpg

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the nzd/jpy looks like a possible potential..... wide swinging rates and a somewhat uncomplicated economy.......

when the nzd/jpy was 97 in 07, rates were 8 and a quarter..... started falling a full year before wall street..... by 08 it was 44..... rates bottomed in 09 at 2.5......

if we aim at a 4% rate again, 75 would look like a likely target......

if we don't shoot we can't miss....... h


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which brings us to the last on the list..... us......

who knows.......

if there ever was someone that shoots in the dark it's the,,,,,,,...... no, let me rephrase......

if there ever was someone that shoots in the dark blindfolded it's the,,,,,,,..... no, let me rephrase.......

if there ever was someone that shoots in the dark blindfolded with their eyes closed it's the fed.....

now i'm not sayin i could do better, course not...... but a hayseed can spot a hayseed 1000 miles away...... isn't ben just short for bubba.....

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admit upfront, we're just rollin dice here...... but rates surely must go up sometime this century.......

was 124 in 08 and 77 the other day....... we should be able to lower our average price below that..... shootin for 4, hoping not to hit my foot, it's dark ya know.....h


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http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-12-1002.jpg


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someone already in the aud/jpy might think tradin the aud/chf would be plowin the same ground twice....... and while they are highly correlated there is at least a row or two between'em.....

always liked spreadin my losses around, so what the heck......

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the snb threat of intervention might actually help here.....

swiss inflation is low and it's currency is strong, both of which lessen the chance of a rate increase.....

given that the snb would like it's currency weaker and austraila would like to export a boat load of iron ore per capita, the audchf might take a slow leisurely upward path......

either that or it'll sink like a rock......h


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if inflation alone was the factor in interest rate hikes, the boe's job would be a no-brainer....... but it ain't so it ain't......

inflation in england is about 4.4%...... the boe is down playing that abit because they know their in a damned if ya do, damned if ya don't position...... what they really need is to get some pointers from our fed on how to fudge the cpi index....... a missplaced decimal can sure make bogus numbers look even better.....

in any event, england is in the eye of the storm they did not create......

kinda thought the austerity measures would suffice, maybe not......

also thought the prior low would be takin out with full force, also maybe not.....

well so much for thinkin, well maybe......

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last weeks latest gbp rate hike rumblings whacked me in the shorts...... and hard...... that sting could last well into next week.....

so what's it gonna be..... regroup..... retreat...... or buy another tractor.......h

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england inflation

http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-13-2060.jpg

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england unemployment
http://www.google.com/chart?cht=lxy&...0%25|4%25|8%25

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the standard meaning of r and r is rest and relaxation..... a new meaning might be on the horizon.......

Young Einon: The peasants are revolting.
Brok: They've always been revolting, Prince. But now they're rebelling.

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coming from a poor southern background, peasantry is familar to me.....

coming from an irish background, rebellion is familar to me......

now all i need is red hair......

2 outa 3 ain't bad......

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so, inflation hit 2.6...... and the European Central Bank wants to raise rates to bring down the cost of a hamburger 2 years from now......

this might temporarily help the euro but it will also make it even tougher for ireland, portugal and friends to make ends meet..... they were already wound up about the euro deal...... to make matters worse now they've had 6 months to get drunk......

wonder who's going to throw the first punch..... my money is on ireland.... for both the first and last punch.....


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new zealand is here to stay...... the euro is here but on thin ice.......

all in all, thinkin about lightin my eur/nzd load abit...... just in case......h

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inflation in switzerland is like the rodents of unusual size........ i don't think they exist......

or so it appears from lookin at the worlds cpi figures....... the chf has nil and the usd is in denial.......

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for an idea you can take a quick gander at the "experts usdchf forecast", but odds are direction will be determined solely by which country can blow the most smoke......

washington will win that, hands down........

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buyin against the trend takes on unnecessary risks but have my excuse ready..... it was all the smoke.......h

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us

http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-13-2004.jpg


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chf

http://www.global-rates.com/images/c...rt-13-2058.jpg

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cleaned house yesterday.......

with the exception of chf/jpy, closed all yen trades which were above their last weeks low..... about 90 of'em..... this of course now lowers the remaining average price on each pair.....

the remaining average price is one thing but more important , to me, is if we consider the pips from the 90 closed trades now my true average breakeven price on each pair is lower still......

have full intentions of re-entering those closed trades during the week if proper conditions exist.......h

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I lol'ed IRL Fantastic thread Hayseed

hey intensity...... thanks.......

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to be honest, a week from now i'll probably not remember anything from today......

occasionally i'm brave enough to look back at my prior trades..... if someone is makin many a day it can be a real pain scratchin thru'em all to find those you need......

here's an indicator that will remind me..... it will point out real quick, the good, the bad, and the ugly........h

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on second thought......

it might be better for me to drag up here all together..... both angela merkel and axel weber have 3 e's, but diverge from then on....... really not interested in being a wounded innocent bystander of the merkel wars..... hayseeds bleed so easy......

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hmmm....... it appears public opinion is begining to favor the long range yen plan......h


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and now the fx bookies have established odds of the euro's demise..... 1 in 7 ...... wonder if that's the same group that lays the 95% odds of a fx traders, my, failure....... i'm still standin......

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speakin of odd failures, the euro just seconds ago fell thru the uptrend channel....... wonder what the odds are of a retest of that channel......h

Ah ha, found ya So this is where it's all happening. Nice charts. Now be a gentleman and leave some pips on the table for the rest of us won't you ......

.

hey miss p...... don't worry...... fixin to crank up our a/j hedge again....... so more than likely i'll be sendin my typical monthly pal-aj-money check your way........ spend it well......h

so...... let me get this straight......

first we had the dollar is doomed..... then the euro is dead...... and now the yen is collapsing into a coffin.......

this ghoulish morbidity is gittin kinda creepy........ lightin up guys.......

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somebody turn on martha stewart.....

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still, it got me studyin....... wrote a quickie indicator that counts consecutive up and down bars......

lookin at the usd/jpy...... 12 daily ups in a row is as rarer than a angela merkel smile and 13,,,,,, ...... well heck, everyone knows 13 is flat unlucky......h

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several times eur/aud has taken a peak at 1.3600 and backed off.......

uncertainity due to rates unrest no doubt.......

the euro might rise a quarter, might rise a half or might even sit pat..... but certainly the aud is 4.75 .....

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figurin on givin her plenty rope here...... just not enough to make a noose.......

it's kinda scratchy and anyway, my neck is still sore from the last time.......h


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