Auction Market Theory and Market Profile | Page 77 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Auction Market Value Theory & Analytics 1,757 replies

market Theory 101 Supply and Demand,Market Cycles 7 replies

Market Profile And Volume Profile MT5 7 replies

MarketProfile/Volume Profile/Auction Market Theory indi? 17 replies

Market profile trader-Merged profile 0 replies

Attachments: Auction Market Theory and Market Profile
Exit Attachments

Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,521
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:01pm Apr 2, 2011 6:01pm
Quoting mzvega
Relative to where were sitting on the quarterly, imo, again this is just my opinion. From the Quarterly Chart perspective. We ended the quarter above the QVAH @ 1.40065 "above value" "Overvalued" "Overpriced". If I feel that price will be higher in the future and I need to buy in bulk, I need to buy at a discount, "on sale". If I was trading this Quarterly TF where would prices be "on sale" ? "Below Value".
We seem to be forming balance. I merged the 2 Quarters and from the merged profile we closed inside value. Until we can hold a...
I see. Thank you very much for taking the time to explain.

No problem with your analysis, but that's what I would call medium-term, as described in my post #1136 a week ago.

My long-term analysis starts from the macro-event of the G7 meeting in April 2006. The VAH, VAL and POC of the period since then are 1.4240, 1.2510, and 1.2820 (marked red, red, and green in the chart). The next few "local POCs" above are at 1.3600, 1.4720 and 1.5580 (blue in the chart).

So from that perspective still within value, and in that context the break of 1.40 at unprecedented volume followed by two weeks of confident buying around 1.4050-80 is an indication that a long-term event in the form of a break above 1.4280 may be about to happen.

Such a break could be followed by a strong rally to 1.4720 in the first instance, which would be a major opportunity.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MP 17 march 06 to 1 april 2011.PNG Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Eu Weekly w levels 2 April.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #1,522
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:52pm Apr 2, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting medici
OK, thanks for the clarification. Makes a lot of sense. If I understand you correctly, you share my observation that the size of sell orders above 1.42 are minuscule. Which says that the long-term participants aren't selling, and neither are the medium-term folks. It's only late-comers to the party like me squeezing the short side this eve.

So who, if anyone, is left on the selling side? I suppose we'll find out on Thursday. Then again, I'd trust the charts much more than any news event. After all, today's NFP was dollar bullish and look where...
Creepy vid brah
  • #1,523
  • Apr 2, 2011 7:43pm Apr 2, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting mzvega
I wanted to include a 3hour Market Profile video. Its for slightly more advanced MP users. This man has 2 other videos "MP 101" & "MP 102"
he considers this "MP 103"

http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html
Great resources. This guy is the balls
  • #1,524
  • Apr 2, 2011 10:43pm Apr 2, 2011 10:43pm
Quoting medici
I see. Thank you very much for taking the time to explain.

No problem with your analysis, but that's what I would call medium-term, as described in my post #1136 a week ago.

My long-term analysis starts from the macro-event of the G7 meeting in April 2006. The VAH, VAL and POC of the period since then are 1.4240, 1.2510, and 1.2820 (marked red, red, and green in the chart). The next few "local POCs" above are at 1.3600, 1.4720 and 1.5580 (blue in the chart)....

Thank You for your Longterm analysis! Much appreciated, I often wonder why after spending alot of time on analysis, I get "Run down" by price. I totally disreguard, these "Maco" things. I am not strong in fundamentals, at all. A G7 meeting means absolutly nothing to to me. I told you I was work in progress.
Anyway, I added profile to your analysis, with this mp thing, I find it hard to read the market if I cant see its structure.
The poc is still the highest volume point. The next highest volume point is @ 1.3600, but it doesnt have more. Woulnt we need more volume above, to pull that poc higher? Indicating higher prices? The wider the base, harder to tip the balance of volume. But again that volume peak @1.472. That indeed looks like the best place to make a run to. My mid term analysis wants me to say I want to see a pullback @1.3600 . Thats why I dislike longterm analysis. Delvelopment is slow. I just assume anything can happen between now and then. And before I know it, Ive long track of Longterm perspective.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: medici's long term analysis a.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: medici's long term analysis.jpg Size: 135 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,525
  • Apr 3, 2011 1:35am Apr 3, 2011 1:35am
Quoting mzvega
I wanted to include a 3hour Market Profile video. Its for slightly more advanced MP users. This man has 2 other videos "MP 101" & "MP 102"
he considers this "MP 103"

http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html
I should have included these first, sorry.

MP 101
http://www.tradingclinic.com/mp201/mp101_benjamin_021705.wmv
MP 102
http://www.tradingclinic.com/downloads/mp201/MP102_media/MP102.wmv
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,526
  • Edited 8:25am Apr 3, 2011 4:38am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting mzvega
Thank You for your Longterm analysis! Much appreciated, I often wonder why after spending alot of time on analysis, I get "Run down" by price. I totally disreguard, these "Maco" things. I am not strong in fundamentals, at all. A G7 meeting means absolutly nothing to to me. I told you I was work in progress.
You're welcome! I appreciate this discussion. To me it's an essential part of planning. Even though I focus on the very short-term, I couldn't do that without putting things into context.

Quote
Anyway, I added profile to your analysis, with this mp thing, I find it hard to read the market if I cant see its structure.

And I did produce a profile in Excel (attached above) as I thought that would be more accurate than what MT4 is able to produce.

Quote
The poc is still the highest volume point. The next highest volume point is @ 1.3600, but it doesnt have more. Woulnt we need more volume above, to pull that poc higher? Indicating higher prices?

No, why? Look at the lack of volume around 1.30. No trains are stopping there...

Quote
The wider the base, harder to tip the balance of volume. But again that volume peak @1.472. That indeed looks like the best place to make a run to. My mid term analysis wants me to say I want to see a pullback @1.3600 .

To me the value of analysis is not prediction, but the consideration of possible scenarios: If 1.4280 breaks (more likely) then 1.4720 is the likely next station. If 1.3930 breaks, then 1.36 is the likely next station. And so on.
  • #1,527
  • Apr 3, 2011 2:30pm Apr 3, 2011 2:30pm
Jeez... This thread moves faster than a Rabbit F**ks..
  • #1,528
  • Edited 7:50pm Apr 3, 2011 7:30pm | Edited 7:50pm
There were quite a few good posts on the longer term profiles on EU this weekend, i thought i'd add one more to the mix to start a discussion around one-timeframing vs value areas and which are more dominant

Attached is a chart of yearly EU profiles for 2007-current. I've marked areas which are of interest longer term up top, they are roughly 1.4400, 1.4700 and 1.5500.

1.4400 is the closest target which many are calling the next major resistance. From the chart we can see it is a LVN over the last 4 years. While I'm still learning what to expect from LVN's, there was one interpretation I found very intriguing (to paraphrase because I can no longer find the site): Comparing volume to gravity, an LVN is an area of low gravity, where as HVN is an area of high gravity. Price in low gravity areas have little attraction, so expect quick movement there. So, the 1.4400 LVN could be a quick place to turn around, or a place to quickly pass thru to get to 1.4700, which should prove to be stronger supply.

We'll see when price gets there, but one possiblity is a quick move thru 1.44 to 1.47 then a bounce back to fill in the LVN...or the other alternative is a quick turnaround at 1.44 back to the current years VAH, etc.

But that is not what i wanted to post...

2010 stopped one-timeframing on the yearly scale. Yet its VAL was not lower than 2009's VAL, and in fact was equal to the 2006 yearly POC. and this year's low bounced rights off that same POC.

This is essentially the same pattern we saw last week, where Friday's low stopped one-timeframing, but held the prior VAL.

It would appear to me that the strength of POC's/VAL/VAH are more predominant than one-timeframing. Certainly caution should be taken once one-timeframing stops, but i would not base bias solely on that but also take into accounr the VAL/VAH/POCs

thoughts?

As a side note, Bandung, while your mp-text indy is really awesome, I've found it quite sluggish when dealing with yearly profiles. Not a big deal really since i don't look at them often (and to be honest i was just paying arround with your indy and that's how i came across this). But I thought you should know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU TPO Y 2011-04-03 at 8.08.55 PM.png Size: 308 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #1,529
  • Apr 3, 2011 7:33pm Apr 3, 2011 7:33pm
Looks like I should have stayed in the long from friday...EU on the move already and broken Friday's high...i'm still waiting to see what london does though, hoping it will offer some sort of retrace to get back in long again!

Good luck to all!

mzvega, thx for the doc links! looking forward to reading them both!
Change is the only constant
  • #1,530
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:19pm Apr 3, 2011 8:19pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1301674469

MZVEGA I was wondering if you could post the indicators that are used in the pic that you are using in the link above. A pic showing the Data window to the left of the pic would be great if you could do that. Thanks if you could do that.

Cheers.
  • #1,531
  • Apr 3, 2011 8:44pm Apr 3, 2011 8:44pm
Quoting tgwhbb
There were quite a few good posts on the longer term profiles on EU this weekend, i thought i'd add one more to the mix to start a discussion around one-timeframing vs value areas and which are more dominant

Attached is a chart of yearly EU profiles for 2007-current. I've marked areas which are of interest longer term up top, they are roughly 1.4400, 1.4700 and 1.5500.

1.4400 is the closest target which many are calling the next major resistance. From the chart we can see it is a LVN over the last 4 years. While I'm still learning what to expect...

T, adjust text height setting, I use 50 or 80 for Yearly profile...
Increasing text height will reduce number of text that mt4 should draw/redraw



cheers...
...
  • #1,532
  • Edited 8:43am Apr 4, 2011 6:12am | Edited 8:43am
Sell gbpusd at 1.6153, if she play below POC 1.6125 i think VAL will be a nice target....

KG

PS: Closed +10 pips, waiting another moment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _athread_026.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #1,533
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:46am Apr 4, 2011 8:46am
4250... seem holding

but ny open above london IBR and POC...
4300 ...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-long-00002.png Size: 90 KB
...
  • #1,534
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:52am Apr 4, 2011 8:52am
Quoting Kang_Gun
Sell gbpusd at 1.6153, if she play below POC 1.6125 i think VAL will be a nice target....

KG

PS: Closed +10 pips, waiting another moment
nice kg...

eh kg... I am not in the mood for coding this days... so i dont know if i can code your indi request this week... sabar ya.
...
  • #1,535
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:56am Apr 4, 2011 8:56am
Quoting bandung
nice kg...

eh kg... I am not in the mood for coding this days... so i dont know if i can code your indi request this week... sabar ya.
No problem bro, tahu rasanya kalau gak mood kok...

KG
  • #1,536
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:04am Apr 4, 2011 9:04am
Sell gbpusd at 1.6172. target POC 1.6125

KG

PS: close +35 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _athread_027.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #1,537
  • Apr 4, 2011 9:07am Apr 4, 2011 9:07am
Good Morning! I just took additional short @1.42339.
Durning the london I went short @1.42268, @ 1.42195. Set a sl and went to sleep. I added as soon as price in US session came back below the daily (24h) open 1.4233. My personal bias is still short side. Ill manage the trade carefully.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today short 123.jpg Size: 267 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: today short 12.jpg Size: 177 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,538
  • Apr 4, 2011 10:41am Apr 4, 2011 10:41am
Quoting mzvega
Good Morning! I just took additional short @1.42339.
Durning the london I went short @1.42268, @ 1.42195. Set a sl and went to sleep. I added as soon as price in US session came back below the daily (24h) open 1.4233. My personal bias is still short side. Ill manage the trade carefully.

I closed 2 trades @ DIBL. Im still holding @1.42268 & 1.42339. Ill place a sl @Slightly above DIBH
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,539
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:03am Apr 4, 2011 11:03am
Quoting tgwhbb
There were quite a few good posts on the longer term profiles on EU this weekend, i thought i'd add one more to the mix to start a discussion around one-timeframing vs value areas and which are more dominant

Attached is a chart of yearly EU profiles for 2007-current. I've marked areas which are of interest longer term up top, they are roughly 1.4400, 1.4700 and 1.5500.

1.4400 is the closest target which many are calling the next major resistance. From the chart we can see it is a LVN over the last 4 years. While I'm still learning what to expect...
Good analysis!
I appreciate you sharing that view of the chart. For some reason I cant view the yearly that way. Interesting.... As per the basic MP set ups. I keep track what levels to look for and this was the analysis the info came up with the first day of the year on the open. I do this for yr, q, mon, wk,. But, its uncanny how traders did buy previous years val as per basic MP set up
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yearly.jpg.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: t.jpg Size: 169 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,540
  • Apr 4, 2011 11:17am Apr 4, 2011 11:17am
Quoting mzvega
Good analysis!
I appreciate you sharing that view of the chart. For some reason I cant view the yearly that way. Interesting.... As per the basic MP set ups. I keep track what levels to look for and this was the analysis the info came up with the first day of the year on the open. I do this for yr, q, mon, wk,. But, its uncanny how traders did buy previous years val as per basic MP set up
here's the same chart but with the text height adjusted as per bandung's instructions. (that solved the sluggishness problem as well as read-ability).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-04-04 at 12.16.13 PM.png Size: 187 KB
Change is the only constant
8 traders viewing now