How long have you been this trading thing? I've watched your posts over the years, it looks like you've found your stride.
Best-
K.I.S.S.
- #521
- Mar 30, 2011 7:04am Mar 30, 2011 7:04am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: In Fibonacci We Trust | 2,397 Posts
Best-
K.I.S.S.
- #522
- Mar 30, 2011 8:22am Mar 30, 2011 8:22am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
No timeframe SC and my observations are sometimes incorrect. ...
was just curious, as u are far ahead of me when it comes to studying/implementing ratios.
Thanks LVG. Got serious in 2007 and decided to try to get good enough to make a living at it. J16 got me profitable. Im not always right but I can eeek out a decent lifestyle....
trading & riding (sometimes? with family) is a fantastic lifestyle. i envy u, my friend
- #523
- Mar 31, 2011 5:20am Mar 31, 2011 5:20am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
We could..
..and Euro will lose its biggest supporter - Mrs. Merkel or Merkel will lose Germany..
But the consumer nations got addicted with this almost free money and started to depend upon it and when access to that free money was getting harder things got ugly.
Imagine a classic situation of a heroin addict. His dealer will give him the substance at very low costs or almost free to get him on it. Than the rates will go gradually up as the addict becomes more addicted. Eventually the addict will go broke. Than he will start to sell his assets or hand them over as a collateral at very cheap prices to the drug dealer. All goes well until the addict runs out of his assets and than the dealer cant see how his customer will able to payback debt. Now the dealer has two options keep on lending the addict or move on to find another one.
One big difference between above example and Eurozone is that Germany cant move on like the dealer.
So its a very tricky situation for Mrs.Merkel indeed.
.
- #524
- Mar 31, 2011 10:32am Mar 31, 2011 10:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Germany supports EU cause they have too. ..
.
or maybe they will stop buying US debt...
. I can smell 'bad things' if that ever happens.
What do you think it's going to happen in Europe if, let's say next German government comes up with a referendum: are Germans in support of Euro or would they prefer to use their own currency. Just like Sweden, England, etc...?
I don't think Germans will ever see that choice presented to them, but... you never know. It's a strange world we live in.
Having said that, let's start some fireworks.. It's been steady-boring lately...lol.
How about... tomorrow?
- #525
- Edited 5:45am Apr 1, 2011 5:21am | Edited 5:45am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
...........
What do you think it's going to happen in Europe if, let's say next German government comes up with a referendum: are Germans in support of Euro or would they prefer to use their own currency. Just like Sweden, England, etc...?
I don't think Germans will ever see that choice presented to them, but... you never know. It's a strange world we live in.
EUR will have a long life to live in one way or another, there is a good reason why they call it the Old Continent.EUR will outperform the dollar and we would see 1.5 this year and even beyond like 1.6 next year.
In the EU zone interest rates are gone to be raised in the near future, this is cernanity and they are left without any options but to raise them if not now lately for sure ,that will expand this current movement in the EURUSD further up, and also the QE2 is still in progress and will further depreciate the USD.
But if you think that the end of QE2 will mean something, I'll tell you what it means = the start of the QE3
The Fed will keep their short-term interest rates low to stimulate further the economy, so everything is pointing up, but nothing goes straight up or straight down.
And also my projection are pointing up, the line of least resistance is still to the upside
now did I bring enough fireworks to the table or what
PS: there are only good things happening to me lately
, I'm searching for a broker that could handle up to 1M order, I've been pushing my lot size exponential lately, I'm going for the jugularHow about... tomorrow?
if they will drive price to far .
- #526
- Apr 1, 2011 6:38am Apr 1, 2011 6:38am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
Based on the same theory China supports $US because they also have to...
I can smell 'bad things' if that ever happens.
What do you think it's going to happen in Europe if, let's say next German government comes up with a referendum: are Germans in support of Euro or would they prefer to use their own currency. Just like Sweden, England, etc...?
I don't think Germans will ever see that choice presented to them, but... you never know. It's a strange world we live in.
Having said that,...
Trigger i dont know if EU have a long life or not but the thing is
QE2 is gone, Markets are forward looking and they have already start to price in the end of QE2 even before Fed announce that are ending it. Cause your smart money people have started to take profits. You know the basic reason of QE2 is to bring down interest rates on treasuries. Couple of Feds have also started to speak towards the end of QE2, ohh yeah i know cant believe those guys but Have a look at yield curves for the month of the March they have started to rise from the middle of the month in face of a QE2 still going on.
Coming back to ECB rising rates, well yeah every ones sure that they will rise the rates and this is what irritates Mrs. Market that every one sounds to be so much sure about it. The thing is rate hike is pretty much priced in cause again repeating myself markets are forward looking they are discounting every possibility of any event that could happen in future. People are talking about rate hike for more than a month now and i think it was enough to get it price in. Yeah i agree market will go up for a day or two after the rate hike but dont see it enough to get it going for months.
In the end your are Left with one Currency who's rates have been risen and priced in, Two member already defaulted, one on the verge of a bailout and perhaps more to come as high interest rates will make payments difficult on future maturities and their biggest funding source (Germany) is having a problem at home loosing votes.
On other hand u have a Ccy which is just gonna get free from two long QE programs, It has performing worst against its rivals (GOLD, JPY,CHF) in times of risk aversion cause of that QE program, Interest rates on worlds safest assets (Gov Treasuries) have started to rise, Economy has started to recover in recent months, Inflation is picking up.
So if (Ceteris paribas) which Ccy will you choose?
IMHO.
.
- #527
- Apr 1, 2011 7:51am Apr 1, 2011 7:51am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
fade them.......... fade them................. and punish them
I'll show you who is the master))
live action, better than any live show
prepare for big money to come to you)
I'll show you who is the master
))live action, better than any live show
prepare for big money to come to you
)
- #528
- Edited 9:26am Apr 1, 2011 8:18am | Edited 9:26am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
............
I'm prepare to fade some upward momentum if NFP will give me any chances....but I'm wating for them to show me their intention and I'll punsih them if they will drive price to far .
I fade them and punished for that 2.5 standard lots on each ...grrrrr ...time for some praying
anyone got my tip, was sure money in your pockets
, but stay nimble and protect yourselfnow lets see how far can it go
I hope not smell blood on my shoes, just to add some melodrama
Mark hope you would not be angry when you read this, but is part of the FIREWORKS
Edit: need to see some push here,need to see some conviction in the next hour
Edit2: my timing was all wrong, I should have wait another hour before begin my operations I forgot we shifted to daylight saving, I would have done the same just that I missed this important piece.... I almost bit the bullet bc of it--> need for that to scale out reduce my exposure. Left only 0.5 lots to mange and to raid this thing out of it
I Gotta Feeling:
Inserted Video
- #529
- Apr 1, 2011 8:30am Apr 1, 2011 8:30am
- | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: shoe shine boy | 1,146 Posts
I would fade your overconfidence if such chart exists.
- #530
- Apr 1, 2011 9:25am Apr 1, 2011 9:25am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Based on the same theory China supports $US because they also have to...
I can smell 'bad things' if that ever happens.
What do you think it's going to happen in Europe if, let's say next German government comes up with a referendum: are Germans in support of Euro or would they prefer to use their own currency. Just like Sweden, England, etc...?
....
- #531
- Edited 9:55am Apr 1, 2011 9:42am | Edited 9:55am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
- #532
- Apr 1, 2011 10:19am Apr 1, 2011 10:19am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
How much is that Debt like 1.4 Trillion right? But the thing is USA is not Ireland or Greece, they can print their own money of any amount they want to and keep Interest rates and CCY rate in a comfortable range, unlike PIIGS who are tied to a Central bank. SO i dont think China will be that much worried.
Trigger i dont know if EU have a long life or not but the thing is
QE2 is gone, Markets are forward looking and they have already start to price in the end of QE2 even before Fed announce that are ending it. Cause your smart money people have...
The charts you posted looks like some big tsunami waves, like the colors.
I'm speaking just from my own experience, not trying to show up some Ego here but I have an almost 100% accurate rate when it comes to predicting large movements over a much more longer period of time, and I did speak about some of my long term view here on FF wich all of them are self fullfiling profecy,and are currently materializing, I'm the next market profet
of course after Soros, Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Steinhardt and Konver I developed a 6 sense in timing the market actually this is what I'm doing in a maicro view also.I myself am 80% pure technical and the rest 20% goes to fundamental where I have strict rules regarding my view and how far I can go bc otherwise I end up with a lot of confusing thoughts. I try to keep things simple as possible and try to look for a catalyst that will trigger that trade and also for the person who may be on the other side of my trade,simple things nothing sophisticated
I'll be honest with you but you sound like one of the TV analyst, hope you don't get mad with me but I myself was confronted with the same appreciations
)Mark hope you did received what you have been asking for : FIREWORKS
Nasir just an advice be aware from where do you get educate yourself, those threads you are following are full of all kind of sukers, when I read those posts I laugh out loud on those suckers. I'm seeing from your speaking that you "borrowed" from their speaking.
Thats the main reason I'm restricting myself and post only in 1 or 2 threads, but I'm planning to delete my user name in the near future had to manage a serious business.
Just stay away from those sukers, it can be contagious so be aware.
After some time being in this business you begin to smell who is doing well in this business and who is just a sucker puppet.
Thats the bottom line, are you doing it or not, anything else is just noise.
I was just read it again before to submit the message and had to make a disclaimere: it is not directed to you Nasir whatsoever, just to make things clear bc after read it again I tought I'm to harsh.
PS: Mark apologize for the language
- #535
- Apr 1, 2011 10:30am Apr 1, 2011 10:30am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
this kind of scenario are only good for entertainment
) about possibility of soviet union and Berlin wall collapsing...EUR will outperform the dollar and we would see 1.5 this year and even beyond like 1.6 next year.
But if you think that the end of QE2 will mean something, I'll tell you what it means = the start of the QE3
- #536
- Apr 1, 2011 10:41am Apr 1, 2011 10:41am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
How much is that Debt like 1.4 Trillion right? But the thing is USA is not Ireland or Greece, they can print their own money of any amount they want to and keep Interest rates and CCY rate in a comfortable range, unlike PIIGS who are tied to a Central bank. SO i dont think China will be that much worried.
.
I am very well aware of the fact that US as a country is bankrupt, period. There is no question about it, but for now there is nothing else that can act as currency reserve. IMHO, $ will prosper for another 5-10 years just fine. After that, who knows.
Maybe Chinese currency will takeover, we'd need to wait and see. There is writing allover the wall, (even if trigger can't see it
- blame it on the young age) that we're heading towards another recession and it will not be pretty. The faster oil goes up, the faster it'll come. This will lead to eventual $ appreciation. But..., who really cares.. This is a chart thread, so let's leave fundamental and political tips for those in the KNOW. Back to charts.
- #537
- Apr 1, 2011 10:48am Apr 1, 2011 10:48am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
Mark hope you would not be angry when you read this, but is part of the FIREWORKS
Young, naive and angry go to wars and....
Old dogs pull the strings, I was told many, many Easters ago and try to remember..
- #538
- Apr 1, 2011 10:50am Apr 1, 2011 10:50am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2005 | 2,899 Posts
i believe there was a survey that says most Germans prefer the Deutschemark over the Euro (not sure if survey was prior or after the Euro introduction).
- #539
- Apr 1, 2011 10:50am Apr 1, 2011 10:50am
- Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,891 Posts
Hey Nasir boy
The charts you posted looks like some big tsunami waves, like the colors.
I'm speaking just from my own experience, not trying to show up some Ego here but I have an almost 100% accurate rate when it comes to predicting large movements over a much more longer period of time, and I did speak about some of my long term view here on FF wich all of them are self fullfiling profecy,and are currently materializing, I'm the next market profet
Its good that u have developed that 6th sense about market and i hope u even make more money than Soros. But stay humble my friend you cant call anyone sucker, you have no right to do it. There are people on system thread who are trading MA crossovers u cant call them suckers cause everyone goes through that stage. Even there was a time when Rac was involved in those threads to a small extent though.
Every one learn their way out of those levels but it does not mean that when you cross that hurdle you start to call other who are still stuck behind you,.. suckers.
Be humble and respect your fellow traders even if their trading methodologies and mindset does not make any sense to you.
.
- #540
- Apr 1, 2011 10:54am Apr 1, 2011 10:54am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: LIFE ITSELF | 1,058 Posts
If that happens drinks are on me till the end of 2011..
That won't happen. If Feds proceed, congress will block it and dissolve D'Feds... you can write it down..
(even if trigger can't see it
Thats is how PTJ have beaten the Market in Oct 1987 and Soros and Drunkmiller have been left behind that year.
He had a strong personality like mine