Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#29,081
Mar 31, 2011 3:02pm Mar 31, 2011 3:02pm

spot
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Speculator | 40 Posts

Great. We will see, by no means i think couple hundred of pips drop scenario impossible, it is just that i think it as a less propable than it would start ranging/heading up.

Point was, if you feel like sharing some insight of yours about where market could be heading, why it would be heading there and when, could allso be done with proper justification and some clues about why you feel this way. A novel from couple bulls and bears is not what i would think as a proper way to do that. I can allso look in to my crystall ball and tell you that it will be on 1.05. when? why? My crystall ball wont tell me that. But truth is, given infinite ammount of time, probability of all scenarios you could think becomes 1 or in other words, 100%.

Pointless bear or bullshit imo.

Feeding a trollish participants makes them fat and healthy.

#29,082
Mar 31, 2011 3:03pm Mar 31, 2011 3:03pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting USD-Bear

Disliked

Although on the same road, this attitude will kill your account, just wait and see.....

Ignored

OK? AS I posted my short on the AUD/USD it is currently down thirty pips from when I called the trendline resistance at 1.038 ish..but I started my position building at 1.0355 1.0360 and a whopper load at 1.0369. Just because I traded this bad boy the right way...waiting and waiting and waiting for that trend to be touched...shouldnt I get rewarded for this? I even posted my strategy online with a little story to go with it....? Is that so bad? Anyways.....my account is not getting killed and if we go to 1.04 i will surely come on here and "PAY" YES "PAY" everybody that went against me 100.00 dollars! YES 100.00 dollars. I will wire the money, send it via money order..whatever

Currently we are at 1.0345....???

China PMI tonight.. and NFP tomorrow....we could see 1.02 and 1.01 area.

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,083
Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting spot

Disliked

Great. We will see, by no means i think couple hundred of pips drop scenario impossible, it is just that i think it as a less propable than it would start ranging/heading up.

Point was, if you feel like sharing some insight of yours about where market could be heading, why it would be heading there and when, could allso be done with proper justification and some clues about why you feel this way. A novel from couple bulls and bears is not what i would think as a proper way to do that. I can allso look in to my crystall ball and tell you that...

Ignored

Ok...strategy was simple...I waited for the aud/usd trendline resistance to be touched.....Simple..not complex...I just waited. I got into aud/usd before but got stopped out. I felt the trend was strong so I just drew a resistance line or otherwise an upper trendline and waited to see if it would get hit. I added an alert to my mt4 account. My bb started going off when it approached 1.0350 and so I waited to see if it would hit it. I wasnt sure because volume was dead and things were slow ( considering tomorrow is NFP and PMI tonight). I am pretty sure it hit the trendline...i thought maybe 1.0380 was the high but I guess 1.0370 ish was the top...anyways..this is always good for a 150 to 200 pip reversal. Not saying the trend is broken..just saying looks good for a150 to 200 pip downturn...maybe more..I will readjust my stops accordingly. Anyways..enjoy the ride...take profit when you need too...but I will be moving my stops up accordingly.

P.S....I posted my STOP at 1.0401 and 1.0410 and 1.0415 and 1.0420...SO ALL THE BIG BANKS CAN SWEEP IT! ahahah...NOT

GBP/AUD still looks good...only 20 pips off its low.. I think you will get a better risk/reward ratio with this one. GBP/AUD could be a 1000 pip move. GBP is strong and word says they will raise interest rates.

we are now at 1.0336 from the 1.0370 high

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,084
Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm Mar 31, 2011 3:18pm

spot
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Speculator | 40 Posts

USD demand came in, E/A and G/A didnt move a thing, so your bets are on USD strengh, not on AUD weakness?

this move looks like very fragile to me, but i could allso be wrong, oh well, does not matter to me, got SL's at B/e, will take whatever it gives. enything above 1.3 looks like bullish to me.

#29,085
Mar 31, 2011 3:28pm Mar 31, 2011 3:28pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting spot

Disliked

USD demand came in, E/A and G/A didnt move a thing, so your bets are on USD strengh, not on AUD weakness?

this move looks like very fragile to me, but i could allso be wrong, oh well, does not matter to me, got SL's at B/e, will take whatever it gives. enything above 1.3 looks like bullish to me.

Ignored

Dont do it spot! My bets are on usd strength and bgp strength. GBP pmi tomorrow...CHINA PMI tonight killing aud and NFP tomorrow boosting usd. GBP PMI will be good and this will keep the gbp/usd pair neutral from the NFP but the aud/usd is not immune..which will send the gbp/aud pair higher...way higher! aud/usd lower.

This is my opinion good luck!

P.S i dont know about the eur/aud anymore......thats a 50/50...could be stale. r/r not in my interest.

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,086
Mar 31, 2011 3:37pm Mar 31, 2011 3:37pm

Citiboy
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts

Look out below if we get bearish engulf on 4H

Twitter: @TrendersGame

#29,087
Mar 31, 2011 3:37pm Mar 31, 2011 3:37pm

alter
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 450 Posts

Quoting Olu

Disliked

are we looking at the same currency pair here? I see no drop...

Ignored

how come u dont see?

#29,088
Mar 31, 2011 3:42pm Mar 31, 2011 3:42pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting Citiboy

Disliked

Look out below if we get bearish engulf on 4H

Ignored

citi boy look at gbp/aud.....rounded bottom on the 1/2 hour! these pairs are going to get smashed!!!

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,089
Mar 31, 2011 3:47pm Mar 31, 2011 3:47pm

Citiboy
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts

Sry froth, I dont play crosses. My view is AUD is over extended, and USD will strengthen. Im am neutral on GBP.

Average short on A/U is at 1.0345. 3 lots.

TP @ at 1, .9780 and .9550

Stops at .0385, .04 and .0425

Twitter: @TrendersGame

#29,090
Mar 31, 2011 3:52pm Mar 31, 2011 3:52pm

Citiboy
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts

8 minutes till a beautyfull daily candle

Twitter: @TrendersGame

#29,091
Mar 31, 2011 4:31pm Mar 31, 2011 4:31pm

ely
| Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Trader | 248 Posts

Quoting frothy

Disliked

Ok...strategy was simple...I waited for the aud/usd trendline resistance to be touched.....Simple..not complex...I just waited. I got into aud/usd before but got stopped out. I felt the trend was strong so I just drew a resistance line or otherwise an upper trendline and waited to see if it would get hit. I added an alert to my mt4 account. My bb started going off when it approached 1.0350 and so I waited to see if it would hit it. I wasnt sure because volume was dead and things were slow ( considering tomorrow is NFP and PMI tonight). I am pretty...

Ignored

Great call that frothy

I had my order set at 1.0410 like an idiot...and almost pressed it for another batch at 1.0362!!!!!...should have known better!
Anyway...its a drip down towards 0.9400 or a top-up at .0410!

Ely McShagger

Fed's Lacker Says Worth Re-Examining Bond Purchase Program
31/03/2011

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker Thursday said the central bank should re-examine its $600 billion bond-buying program even as it nears an end.
"Every $100 billion counts," Lacker told reporters on the sidelines of a Richmond Fed conference. "Even if we are getting close to the end I think it's still worth reconsidering at every meeting."

The U.S. central bank is buying $600 billion in Treasurys in an effort to keep interest rates low and stimulate the economy. The program started last year and is scheduled to run through June.
But several regional Fed presidents in recent days have discussed options for tightening monetary policy amid indications of stronger economic growth and potentially worrying signs of inflation.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Tuesday said the program could stop about $100 billion short of its $600 billion target. "We have to get started on the process of getting back to normal on the balance sheet. We are fueling the fire right now, and it needs to be turned around," Bullard said at a conference in Prague.
Lacker said he hadn't made up his mind on whether or not to complete the program, but economic indicators so far this year make a case for considering an early end.
Notably, inflation has ticked up. U.S. consumer prices in February rose at their fastest pace since mid-2009 as energy and food prices surged.

#29,092
Mar 31, 2011 6:09pm Mar 31, 2011 6:09pm

Olu
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Trend Trader | 6,405 Posts

Quoting frothy

Disliked

OLU....you havent seen a drop because I "just" predicted it. YES! I PREDICTED A DROP...WHY? because I am the god of currency trading...and yes...I have made millions trading currencies..MILLIONS! OANDA and FXCM have cancelled my accounts...now I resort to my currenex platform..running a bloomberg pipeline directly to "the banks".

MWAHAAHAHA....

P.S...I bought gbp/aud too....because I like crosses....they make me frothy at the mouth

My opinion on GBP/AUD is that I seriously think (all jokes aside) this could move 1000 pips UP....jmho...

Ignored

I get it now...

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct

#29,093
Mar 31, 2011 6:27pm Mar 31, 2011 6:27pm

jacob_ice
| Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 119 Posts

Frothy

I have a question regarding your prediction on AUD/USD and GBP/AUD.

Do you foresee a dip slide in AUD as early as tomorrow or perhaps next week?

Your analysis does a strong merit in it. Just wanted some further clarification if possible.

Many thanks in advance.

#29,094
Mar 31, 2011 6:43pm Mar 31, 2011 6:43pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Quoting jacob_ice

Disliked

Frothy

I have a question regarding your prediction on AUD/USD and GBP/AUD.

Do you foresee a dip slide in AUD as early as tomorrow or perhaps next week?

Your analysis does a strong merit in it. Just wanted some further clarification if possible.

Many thanks in advance.

Ignored

Jacob ice.....

ok so....as I look into my crystal ball.....the smoke clears...and I see...I see....I see......shrek naked? (gross) LOL

Ok in all seriousness.....lets say you played the bounce off the 1.0370...or your catching it now...your still good in my view. I would put your stop loss around 1.0378..another around 1.0402 ish another at 1.0410 another at 1.0425. If it pushes to these zones, I have put sell orders in between my stops. This is risky jacob ice! I am only using this method because I am confident 1.04 area is too early for this pair. I am averaging into my position every 20 pips. I will move my stop loss to 1.03 once we see 1.02. Be mindful that we are working against a currency that has the highest interest rate and against a currency pair that has the lowest. My target will always change...but RIGHT NOW i see 1.0070 sometime soon. If you have the balls to hold below par..your awesome in my view and I would like to go on a date with one of your relatives in order to reproduce your awesome genes...

Umm GBP/AUD is a whole new ball game....This pair is RIPE!! its a complete bull move up! alteast 600 pips...maybe 1000. I really do see 1000 pips. Based on this I would assume aud/usd falls 300 pips, and gbp/usd goes up 300 pips from here. That makes sense to me...aud/usd at 1.0050ish range and gbp/usd at 1.63 ish..back to normal as we see a correction in the equity markets looming. Rumor that GBP will raise rates?
Buy now...stop loss at 1.5480 range....so you lose 40 pips for 600? thats freakin awesome!! AWESOME!!!!!!!!!

Be careful with your stop loss...put one around 1.5480...1.5470...1.5460 or something like that...you dont wanna get caught for outlier moves..they really suck! JMHO

I personally dont have a stop loss on the gbp/aud...because I used a small amount for this pair. Until I see consistent moves up like a break above 1.5660 into 1.57 i will be averaging in and adding my stop loss once I see the break. This pair I will average in every 40 to 50 pips.

Good luck jacob. I Honestly hope I make you money!

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,095
Mar 31, 2011 6:49pm Mar 31, 2011 6:49pm

jacob_ice
| Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 119 Posts

Quoting frothy

Disliked

Jacob ice.....

ok so....as I look into my crystal ball.....the smoke clears...and I see...I see....I see......shrek naked? (gross) LOL

Ok in all seriousness.....lets say you played the bounce off the 1.0370...or your catching it now...your still good in my view. I would put your stop loss around 1.0378..another around 1.0402 ish another at 1.0410 another at 1.0425. If it pushes to these zones, I have put sell orders in between my stops. This is risky jacob ice! I am only using this method because I am confident 1.04 area is too early for this...

Ignored

Frothy.

My most sincere gratitude for providing a detailed overview of your vision on the two correlating currencies. I shall dwell on what you envisioned and consider in full prior to executing it live.

Again, thanks for putting the effort and time to compose an articulate explanation.

#29,096
Mar 31, 2011 7:06pm Mar 31, 2011 7:06pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Just look how awesome gbp/aud looks! It is so scrumptious I could take it under the covers and talk sweetnothing to it all night...then make it breakfast in the morning and give it a shoulder massage!

Don't be fooled by randomness

#29,097
Mar 31, 2011 7:55pm Mar 31, 2011 7:55pm

jacob_ice
| Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 119 Posts

Frothy

After long consideration and careful thoughts - I jumped into your wagon to enjoy the smooth ride up to the greens. Hopefully it becomes greener as the time progresses.

Yeahhhhh....The breeze is pretty awesome from where I'm sitting :-)

Jacob

#29,098
Mar 31, 2011 8:21pm Mar 31, 2011 8:21pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

Yaa! Alright my friend! Its going to be a sweeeeeet ride! I wish us both luck!

P.s....this is a swing trade for me...so I will be holding for a week maybe two. But I think this is an optimal entry point for short term and long term.

Don't be fooled by randomness