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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #24,021
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:25am Mar 31, 2011 1:25am
Quoting FX Plankton
Hello Everyone,

Below is a clarification attempt about what some thought was my asking for Blotters, P&Ls, etc.

As you know, in addition to being a newbie,
I am trying to learn FTI's Approach.

While reading the first 400+ pages of postings I have come across some nasty and unconstructive postings.
The solution I suggested (in my previous posting)
for this situation was posting earnings ($$$).
I believe that this is the most effective way to show that
FTI's Approach does work.
I do not agree that one demonstrates that FTI's Approach does work...
Hi Plankton,

hmhm - I think the thread has changed a little from it's early days.

In the beginning there have been much people who where upset with that Thread titel of "Technical Analysis Fallacy". They tried to prove fti wrong.

Then there have been some members who felt that their big ego is not appropriate in that thread and cuased a lot of distractions to the flow of the thread

Then there have been some very interested members, who discovered that this way of trading and teaching is just not their cup of tea.

Right now we are a big family with some seniors, who are willing to help others and especially newcomers to stay on track. And also - like in a real family - there is a lot of chit chat, just for entertainment. Finally that's just life. There are periods of time for highly focussed training and some time for relaxing and also "human" stuff ...

I assume you will start to love or to hate it when reading on. But thats the way it is.

I have a reserach background too. And unlike in the masses of papers that most researches are going to create during their scientific life, it is not a question of being wrong or right. There is no need to prove to others that this trading MO is right.

If you read it in all it's depth you will discover, if it fits to you or not. And there is no doubt, this way of trading in it self has to be successful, cause it does not give you any fixed rules about when to enter the market, when to kill or when to take profit. It just provides a deep understanding of the markets, their moving forces and of managing risks. And it is up to you to translate that into trades. Because of that it is up to you to make it successful ..

Just my 2 cents.

All the best and welcome to the family, Plankton!

Cu,
Niels
  • #24,022
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:47am Mar 31, 2011 1:47am
Much Agreed

Quoting MaMood
Hi Plankton,

hmhm - I think the thread has changed a little from it's early days.

In the beginning there have been much people who where upset with that Thread titel of "Technical Analysis Fallacy". They tried to prove fti wrong.

Then there have been some members who felt that their big ego is not appropriate in that thread and cuased a lot of distractions to the flow of the thread

Then there have been some very interested members, who discovered that this way of trading and teaching is just not their cup of tea.

Right now we are a...
  • #24,023
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:02am Mar 31, 2011 2:02am
Plankton,
I don't know how others feel. For me, this sounds like you are planning for an adventure. You want to see others dead or survived to decide your path. It's reasonable on your side. The problem is you don't have the first hand information to count the dead bodies. So, you ask the bodies, "Are you dead or survived?".

Think for the "bodies", everyone is fighting for their own survival. Nobody is here to try out the adventure for you.

Think about the "High Probability" systems, why people bother telling you their performence? When people advertise their performence, they expect some return. It's reasonable on their side, and many of us have got used to be served by the advertisement of high probabilities.

Now, you are visiting TAF family-- It's not a marketing place so that nobody serving you advertisement. Between our battle times we come here for some inforamtion or knowledge or nutrition, or just some discussions to release our nerves. You can count dead body here before you decide to join our path. You can also use your own pocket to test the path. If you meet difficulties on the path, we may help.
  • #24,024
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:25am Mar 31, 2011 2:25am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Plankton,

hmhm - I think the thread has changed a little from it's early days.

In the beginning there have been much people who where upset with that Thread titel of "Technical Analysis Fallacy". They tried to prove fti wrong.

Then there have been some members who felt that their big ego is not appropriate in that thread and cuased a lot of distractions to the flow of the thread

Then there have been some very interested members, who discovered that this way of trading and teaching is just not their cup of tea.

Right now...
Well said and I believe this is one of the few threads that has survived the time test in Forex Factory, without everybody leaving or getting scammed. So that is a good sign.
  • #24,025
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:27am Mar 31, 2011 2:27am
Quoting piccolo
Well said and I believe this is one of the few threads that has survived the time test in Forex Factory, without everybody leaving or getting scammed. So that is a good sign.
there are scam threads ? :/
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #24,026
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:29am Mar 31, 2011 2:29am
Quoting imjscn
Plankton,
I don't know how others feel. For me, this sounds like you are planning for an adventure. You want to see others dead or survived to decide your path. It's reasonable on your side. The problem is you don't have the first hand information to count the dead bodies. So, you ask the bodies, "Are you dead or survived?".

Think for the "bodies", everyone is fighting for their own survival. Nobody is here to try out the adventure for you.

Think about the "High Probability" systems, why people bother telling you their performence? When...

Hi Jen,
you just tickle my heart there but what you've said is so true...

and thanks for keeping us updated about fti, please keep us posted.

regards,
eddy
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #24,027
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:52am Mar 31, 2011 2:52am
Quoting MaMood
----
Then there have been some very interested members, who discovered that this way of trading and teaching is just not their cup of tea.
---
I assume you will start to love or to hate it when reading on. But thats the way it is.
---
If you read it in all it's depth you will discover, if it fits to you or not. And there is no doubt, this way of trading in it self has to be successful, cause it does not give you any fixedrules about when to enter the market, when to kill or when to take profit. It just provides a deep understanding of the markets,...
well said, Niels.

Just want to add underneath the at times esoteric and mythical wrappings (and some random herring ) the basics is pure common sense, freely given by our teacher fti and gratefully received.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #24,028
  • Mar 31, 2011 2:55am Mar 31, 2011 2:55am
Quoting imjscn
Plankton,
I don't know how others feel. For me, this sounds like you are planning for an adventure. You want to see others dead or survived to decide your path. It's reasonable on your side. The problem is you don't have the first hand information to count the dead bodies. So, you ask the bodies, "Are you dead or survived?".

Think for the "bodies", everyone is fighting for their own survival. Nobody is here to try out the adventure for you.

Think about the "High Probability" systems, why people bother telling you their performence? When...
well said, and thank you for the fti updates.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #24,029
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:04am Mar 31, 2011 3:04am
Quoting imjscn
Plankton,
I don't know how others feel. For me, this sounds like you are planning for an adventure. You want to see others dead or survived to decide your path. It's reasonable on your side. The problem is you don't have the first hand information to count the dead bodies. So, you ask the bodies, "Are you dead or survived?".

Think for the "bodies", everyone is fighting for their own survival. Nobody is here to try out the adventure for you.

Think about the "High Probability" systems, why people bother telling you their performence? When...
Hi imjscn,

very well said.

BTW: anything new from fti?
Has he recovered from his "non stop trading" event?

Regards,
Niels
  • #24,030
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:36am Mar 31, 2011 3:36am
Quoting indianguyinny24
What i am trying to achieve is save this entire TAF thread on the Kindle...so for that i need to save it one big file and i want only Printable version(http://www.forexfactory.com/printthread.php?t=57639) and create one web page with all the pages linked inside..... so i just need this forum ...

anyone knows how to save multi link pages... to pdf and then i can convert to kindle

V
V, Niels, - Pagezipper ( http://www.printwhatyoulike.com/pagezipper) I don't think it saves as one pdf and its not for the Kindle specifically but a usefull browsing add on tool nevertheless.

Hope this helps and keep up the good work.
  • #24,031
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:49am Mar 31, 2011 3:49am
Hi guys,
No message from fti since yesterday. Hope he regain some energy soon and won't abuse-using it again.
  • #24,032
  • Mar 31, 2011 3:50am Mar 31, 2011 3:50am
hi FX Plankton,
i believe MaMood and imjcsn have already put it well.
but still i want to add my two cents. still a newbie. only followed TAF for one year. certainly i can't show you a consistant daily, weekly ROI. in fact spend most of my time in rescuing. but i believe fti sir's teaching. i have learned it for one year. the reason i can't show you a convicing ROI sheet is me. but i see it as a natrual process.
you are taking a very scentific approach to trading. i can understand that. we are all used to the way we see things in the past. but when we learn new things, maybe we can adapt to the new climate? based on my personal experience, my rigid way of thinking proved quite painful when i was exposed to new things. it could be just me.
the way i see trading, it is scinence as well as art.
and thx for your comments to those unsavory postings. it has been a long time ago and i try to ignore those negative people. so i didn't bring it up.
regards.
  • #24,033
  • Edited 4:36am Mar 31, 2011 4:26am | Edited 4:36am
My own rant:

lots of the things in fti's MO is common sense. It's just our ego, fear, greed ect that gets in the way of common sense. To be able to trade well, the learning has to be permanently inside you so it becomes second nature. How best is it to do this? I think the best way would be to change our life's mindset, to free ourselves in our daily lives from the "scorpions". Once we have achieved this self-actualization, the general (mind) and the officer (action) will become one.

Thus, if we live by the fti principles of kindness, humblness, common sense ect, our trading will be an extension of our normal operation anyways. Not only do we learn trading, but we learn a lot about ourselves and our own personal development as humans (a very precious ROI worth more than any amount of currency). Seeking ROI on an account without having first developed the self will be difficult. fti has been through his fair share of experience and he's trying to guide us to develop oiur minds before we encounter these problems within ourselves. Basically, if we are seeking ROI before developing ourselves, we are putting the cart before the horse.

Do we treat life rigidly? Do we have to analyze everything or do things just "feel right" after much experience? Do we fight things that we cannot handle? Do we operate in the same MO in any situation? Is life always certain? Do we watch indicators constantly? Can we recognize when we are being stubborn? All will be contained by life experience, it just needs to be adapted to trading.
  • #24,034
  • Edited 5:40am Mar 31, 2011 5:18am | Edited 5:40am
Quoting Zoran
FYI, I'll be a full time trader as of Monday. My work contract has finally come to an end. Time to boogie!
Hi Zoran,

by the FTI and this thread I learned a lot ... thank you ...
I have good results.
Now living with my family in England...
For the past few weeks I'm dancing with the market ...
Just like you ... "I'll be a full time trade" ...
Only broker Dukascopy ...

PS because I am a scalper is not the place for me, unless ...
I'm glad that someone has some good results on the retail FX ...
This hard work is still ...
because if I have to be flexible, it can only be done in seconds TF ...
with adequate capital and financial leverage ... that is my modus operandi ...

Regards
gart
  • #24,035
  • Mar 31, 2011 5:30am Mar 31, 2011 5:30am
The Bruce Lee videos are fantastic . I do however have 1 question. Humans a fallible, it's something that is constantly reinforced... however is this also an important part to our existence? If we are like water all the time, does that mean we lose our human side? In trading, being like water is great, but as FTI pointed out in his very early posts of this thread with the scorpion and the turtle story (my interpretation of it was somewhat consistent with his explanation of the story however it looked at it a little bit more generally I think... my interpretation encapsulated in 1 word is inevitability)... in other words, there are certain parts of our psyche/mind/whatever you wanna call it, which makes us inevitably self destructive in order to rebuild what we have destroyed and we can not get away from it which in turns makes us human. That is my interpretation of it (partly repeated what fti said but it was necessary to put my point across).

So my question is... is does becoming water like Bruce Lee suggests make us not human? The interesting thing in all of my rambling is that I don't believe that being water does in fact push us away from being human despite all my logical reasoning behind it. I just wanted to hear other peoples opinions on this to learn a little bit more about all this.

I'm just interested in this whole topic because to me it appears that temptation through various mediums such as advertising, our knowledge which creates things such as drugs and various other things which cause our bodies to lose balance and essentially cause various psychological effects which give us quirks is what causes people to say that humans are inherently fallible.

I'm just starting to get the feeling that maybe this pursuit of the jeffersons or whatever its called (trying to keep up with your neighbours is what I mean) is causing us to fall into the trap of taking us away from our natural state of balance psychologically which in turn causes us to have problems in life and the point I'm trying to make (may sound crazy) for some reason people reinforce this and either I'm crazy but they seem to glorify the fallibility of human nature whereas I believe that given the right grounding, this need not be the case i.e. people need not live with the idea that they must be fallible in order to belong, which I think is the root cause of all this i.e. since we're social creatures, not belonging is more important to us than our own happiness and success despite the fact that we are all I believe capable of pretty much the same things if we want them and put our minds to them.

So what I'm trying to figure out is whether this human nature which fti pointed out by his story is actually necessarily totally unavoidable or whether we can be like Bruce Lee and simply be water ALL the time and be happy? So maybe what I'm trying to say is... human nature of fallibility and being like water are two contradictory things/are mutually exclusive and we have a choice to select which one we are. We certainly can't be both at any one time and I don't think that any sane person who has experienced the latter will ever want to go back to the former and will do his/her best to relive the same state and to get to a level whereby they are constantly within it???
  • #24,036
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:12am Mar 31, 2011 6:12am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
The Bruce Lee videos are fantastic . I do however have 1 question. Humans a fallible, it's something that is constantly reinforced... however is this also an important part to our existence? If we are like water all the time, does that mean we lose our human side? In trading, being like water is great, but as FTI pointed out in his very early posts of this thread with the scorpion and the turtle story (my interpretation of it was somewhat consistent with his explanation of the story however it looked at it a little bit more generally I...
One key word : Complexity
  • #24,037
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:23am Mar 31, 2011 6:23am
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
The Bruce Lee videos are fantastic
So the USD/JPY blip took you out and you lost your account. Time to step back and look within. Discover yourself and your emotions. Do not trade for a while until you have recovered. This is an important lesson and it is something you have to discover yourself.

Being like water, yes Bruce Lee mentioned it but read the Art of War as it is covered there. When trading you are in a battlefield so learn the lessons of warfare, again in Art of War.

You don't need a University degree to drive a car so don't over complicate matters. Stick to basics as fti keeps repeating.

31. Water shapes its course according to the nature
of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works
out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.

32. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape,
so in warfare there are no constant conditions.
  • #24,038
  • Mar 31, 2011 6:33am Mar 31, 2011 6:33am
This is a good topic Atomic! I personally believe that while the "scorpions" make us human, they can just as easily make us inhuman (some dealers become empty vessels). We need not think in black and white in terms of our personalities. But if I were to, I would say that at one end of the spectrum is our human nature and the other is will power/nurture. The key is to strike a balance between the two and use our nature to our advantage when possible (for example, we tend to be brave when all is lost). Essentially, we "can" be both destructive and like water at the same time (the tsunami in Japan is very clear. While water can be destructive, it can also be harnessed for good depending on its use and how careful we are. In terms of human control, teh idea is similar to use of nuclear energy. It is only when ego comes into play that things get UGLY.). In Chinese martial arts we talk about being fast and slow, powerful yet soft. These ideas seem contradictory, but I assure you they are not. They are actually very good compliments to each other (hard to describe, there is a certain "momentum" that builds through powerful and soft movements that feel like water.

Also about rigidity, I think fti mentions you should know market structure is basic because they give hints to the general undercurrent. Knowing their MO, is helpful as a basis for strategy, but it will not be the basis for our deployment (based on multiple multiple factors)

I agree with your statement that (america at least, sorry to offend anyone) tends to glorify the scorpions. But the key is to BE YOURSELF. You need not buy into the culture. There are many people with genuine good hearts that share our philosophy where human nature can be positive.

We will never be able to get rid of all our scorpions, that would indeed (at least for me) take away part of the human aspect. But what we can do is keep the scorpion "caged". If we lash out or hurt anyone, the best we can do is apologize, make things better and hope our offence is forgiven.

Best
  • #24,039
  • Mar 31, 2011 7:24am Mar 31, 2011 7:24am
Originally Posted by fti http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (june 2 2010)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU0wXxDEenk

I am laughing at myself

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #24,040
  • Mar 31, 2011 7:26am Mar 31, 2011 7:26am
Quoting fti
rofl:
hihi friend,
yes can skew.
Thanks nothing there.
Thanks for nice price.
Have a nice day.

regards

Oh jack,
need ask favour while still breathing.
Any chance put those risk/complance managers and rocket science var scientist out of their misery.
No need too many blind lead the able down that spiral.
The deal boys know how manage their behinds inspite. Not everyone is rogue.
Them breathing down their necks is killing the vibrance and liquidity in marketplace.
evryone's complaqining run out of sparing partners due to technical...
Leadership and Balls
Took me a couple of days to understand.
Good trading all.
Regards,
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