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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #10,341
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:35am Mar 20, 2011 8:35am
I know most successful tradres are trend followers but I still have not managed to master it.
  • #10,342
  • Mar 20, 2011 6:57pm Mar 20, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting dddd
I dont understand why the YEN just keeps going up. I mean, i read the financial explanation, it just doesnt make any commonsense to me.

FINALLY, ALL MY JPY shorts paid off.

The market intervention by all the major global thanks rule the day.

Naturally, i cleared out everything. why? because market intervention never really, really works.

i was reading mortician post on the matter
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8488
  • #10,343
  • Mar 20, 2011 6:59pm Mar 20, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting azlan80
im looking for sell short most of the week as chf and jpy currency demanding...int the earlier week tsunami effect kept sight that bond may safe place to buy.. but the intervation by BOJ make its spike to upside during friday....morning asian season...2 trillion! how to do sell short?
hehhehehe

How do you sell short? because the bank of england, federal reserve, boj. etc, all decided to sell trillions of yen.

that check the advance(bullishness) of the yen.

I was in pain for a while there...i kept shorting and the yen kept appreciating. then....the central banks came to the rescue.

(is your are short yen on eur/jpy--that means you are long eur/jpy. i hope that explains things)
  • #10,344
  • Mar 21, 2011 8:08am Mar 21, 2011 8:08am
Quoting dddd
FINALLY, ALL MY JPY shorts paid off.

The market intervention by all the major global thanks rule the day.

Naturally, i cleared out everything. why? because market intervention never really, really works.

i was reading mortician post on the matter
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8488
normally market interventions by national banks are sterilized. But this one was unsterilized suggesting that it has a long-term effect.
  • #10,345
  • Mar 21, 2011 9:49pm Mar 21, 2011 9:49pm
Quoting Custos
normally market interventions by national banks are sterilized. But this one was unsterilized suggesting that it has a long-term effect.
You are right. But i am want to be careful. I will leave the JPY alone for a while.

And to your point, Also, most interventions are done by one bank...this was done by all the major banks
  • #10,346
  • Mar 23, 2011 3:32am Mar 23, 2011 3:32am
Hello everybody! well since nobody has posted any recent trades i decided to post the trade im in at the moment.
http://img607.imageshack.us/img607/4...tatrader4e.png
  • #10,347
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:23pm Mar 28, 2011 12:23pm
Hi peeps, here is what i'm seeing on the currency index and dashboard indicator.. cheers!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: currency index.gif Size: 9 KB
Attached Image
As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he.
  • #10,348
  • Mar 30, 2011 2:56am Mar 30, 2011 2:56am
Quoting Custos
normally market interventions by national banks are sterilized. But this one was unsterilized suggesting that it has a long-term effect.
You are right.;They just keep going up and up...damn! that would have been my bet of the year..
  • #10,349
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:40am Mar 30, 2011 3:40am
Quoting dddd
You are right.;They just keep going up and up...damn! that would have been my bet of the year..
yeah, and if you do some fundamental analysis, then it would have been the bet for the upcoming months to years:

 

  1. First measures are taken in ports in europe that all tankers from asia must be screened for radioactivity (that measure alone will make products from asia more expensive than before).
  2. All the fish in the ocean next to japan is now radioactive probably, making exports of fish drop
  3. The japanese reputation of being hard working and so on will now go in favor of their products maybe being radioactive, even if it's not warranted. Some consumers will for sure not buy any products coming from japan.
  4. Wind is changing directions to tokyo. If the radioactivity in tokyo gets so high that nobody can work there, then the economy will break down even further.
  5. a lot of factories are destroyed due to the tsunami. Thousands of workers cannot work, cause they have no home and are in temporary camps.
  6. the yen might lose its status as a safe haven currency due to the reasons stated above.
  7. the central banks wanna keep the yen low, so that japan can rebuild an economy.
  8. and finally the measures they take will not make the radioactive disaster go away. It will slow it down, but experts from all around the world are saying that it is unstoppable. Plutonium is also already leaking with a half-life of 24.000 years.

Now if yen is not a short for the upcoming months to years, then I don't know what is.

  • #10,350
  • Mar 30, 2011 8:58am Mar 30, 2011 8:58am
Quoting Custos
yeah, and if you do some fundamental analysis, then it would have been the bet for the upcoming months to years:

[list][*]First measures are taken in ports in europe that all tankers from asia must be screened for radioactivity (that measure alone will make products from asia more expensive than before).[*]All the fish in the ocean next to japan is now radioactive probably, making exports of fish drop[*]The japanese reputation of being hard working and so on will now go in favor of their products maybe being radioactive, even if it's not warranted....

Compelling reasons all around. Originally i had strong beleive about short the YEN, i kept shorting despite the strong bullish moves, almost to the top. What initially threw me off was the YEN rising due to "repatriation" stories i was reading....that weakened my confidence.
  • #10,351
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:16am Mar 30, 2011 9:16am
Quoting Mortician.
See more examples here:

bottom line: trade with the trends. trend trade all pairs. the break of the weekly and daily, especially the weekly, when backed by fundamental, can the serious. USD/DKK netted me +3,700 pips alone. and that is just one position(my earliest one after bpc of the weekly trendline), and i had pyramind a few more positions into usd/dkk using hector techniques along the way on H1 and H4.... even use it on XAG/USD and XAU/USD. Trade with the trend, that is all there is to it.

I wish i was in your XAG, XAU and SGD, they are currently in heaven.
  • #10,352
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:18am Mar 30, 2011 9:18am
Quoting Custos
yeah, and if you do some fundamental analysis, then it would have been the bet for the upcoming months to years:

[list][*]First measures are taken in ports in europe that all tankers from asia must be screened for radioactivity (that measure alone will make products from asia more expensive than before).[*]All the fish in the ocean next to japan is now radioactive probably, making exports of fish drop[*]The japanese reputation of being hard working and so on will now go in favor of their products maybe being radioactive, even if it's not warranted....
This reminds me why technical is great and everything but fundamentals is indispensable too.
  • #10,353
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:35am Mar 30, 2011 9:35am
Quoting dddd
This reminds me why technical is great and everything but fundamentals is indispensable too.
Yes, I actually am studying a lot now about the "origins" of price movement. The quest is more and more leading me away from technical analysis.
Now my two favorites have become statistical behavioral analysis & fundamental analysis (even though I still need to work on the fundamental part quite a bit).

The more I read and test things out, the more I realize how utterly important the fundamental part is. Why try to capture 50 to 100 pips each and every day, if you could just make one or two really great calls about a trend a year, and then ride it out till the fundamentals change.

Of course the time-frames required for this fundamental approach are much longer-term than the average trader in this forum can stomach (weeks to years).

But I become more and more aware, that the missing ingredient to all the technicals is the fundamental part. They both complement each other so well. With technicals you never know when the top is reached, you don't know when there is a trend until it is over. With fundamental analysis, you know in advance that there will be a trend, but have no clue when it will start.
A combined approach cancels out the weaknesses of both. But of course this requires you to hold positions for very long times. You are then not a trader (short-term) anymore, but a speculator (intermediate-term).
  • #10,354
  • Mar 30, 2011 9:22pm Mar 30, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Custos
Yes, I actually am studying a lot now about the "origins" of price movement. The quest is more and more leading me away from technical analysis.
Now my two favorites have become statistical behavioral analysis & fundamental analysis (even though I still need to work on the fundamental part quite a bit)
Makes complete sense. i honestly dont think one can exist without the other. You've read the market wizard book? The forex traders in that book combined tech with fundamentals.

Quoting Custos
The more I read and test things out, the more I realize how utterly important the fundamental part is. Why try to capture 50 to 100 pips each and every day, if you could just make one or two really great calls about a trend a year, and then ride it out till the fundamentals change.
And adding/pyramiding all the way, if one can. This reminds me of your post about PIPEASY guy:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7764
Quoting Custos
I really recommend you guys reading this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149


I was reading it over the last couple of days. It is something I also still have to learn and am not good at in the moment.

It's about position trading, about letting your profits run thousands of...
I think the weakness in his method is the lack of robust use of fundamental. I think fundamental direction will help fine tune his approach.

Quoting Custos

Of course the time-frames required for this fundamental approach are much longer-term than the average trader in this forum can stomach (weeks to years).
I say AMEN to that!

Quoting Custos
But I become more and more aware, that the missing ingredient to all the technicals is the fundamental part. They both complement each other so well.
This reminds me of the trade by mortician, when he postulated that australian vs usd will continue to go up because of fundamentals.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7892
He nailed it.

Quoting Custos
With technicals you never know when the top is reached, you don't know when there is a trend until it is over. With fundamental analysis,...
You hit the nail on the head. I was busy selling YEN(based on fundamental outlook) while it continuously appreciates.

Quoting Custos
A combined approach cancels out the weaknesses of both. But of course this requires you to hold positions for very long times. You are then not a trader (short-term) anymore, but a speculator (intermediate-term).

Most eloquently put.
  • #10,355
  • Mar 31, 2011 1:39am Mar 31, 2011 1:39am
Quoting dddd
Makes complete sense. i honestly dont think one can exist without the other. You've read the market wizard book? The forex traders in that book combined tech with fundamentals.
yep, but since previously I wanted to trade short-term, I shied away from using fundamentals.

Quoting dddd
And adding/pyramiding all the way, if one can. This reminds me of your post about PIPEASY guy:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=7764

I think the weakness in his method is the lack of robust use of fundamental. I think fundamental direction will help fine tune his approach.
yes, the problem with his approach is that you never know when to put on your trade or when there is a change in trend, or continuation. Technicals are just always the RESULT of price action, not the cause of it.
It really doesn't make sense to try to put on trades on the 5 min chart each day and then see one after the other fall apart.
We should also not forget why we went to the trading arena in the first place. Cause we want to make money and have a good life-style as well. Now if you try nailing entries each and every day, then that is definitely not something contributing to a relaxed life-style & you probably won't make any money.
On the other hand, if you can analyze the fundamentals well and then time your entry/exit once every couple of weeks to months, then guess what: the money starts working for you, and you are not working anymore for the money.
  • #10,356
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:58am Apr 1, 2011 5:58am
hi all

guys i need help at the grave yard
any interesting indicator plz post it @ the grave yard
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246111
  • #10,357
  • Apr 1, 2011 8:46am Apr 1, 2011 8:46am
Quoting dddd
You are right.;They just keep going up and up...damn! that would have been my bet of the year..
and they still keep going shooting to the moon. I am smelling a couple of thousand pips lying around the corner.
  • #10,358
  • Apr 2, 2011 12:36am Apr 2, 2011 12:36am
Quoting Custos
and they still keep going shooting to the moon. I am smelling a couple of thousand pips lying around the corner.
Oh yes, i went back in, but with a much, much smaller size than my original set of bets.

Smelling a coule thousand pips? I am willing to bet you are right.

What is your bet like? if you dont mind me asking. The way i did it was to go long every thing coupled to JPY. I did that and let the market sort out the best pair from the best crosses. I did not use hector Forex Strength Indicator to determine the best one.
  • #10,359
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:13am Apr 2, 2011 2:13am
Quoting dddd
Oh yes, i went back in, but with a much, much smaller size than my original set of bets.

Smelling a coule thousand pips? I am willing to bet you are right.

What is your bet like? if you dont mind me asking. The way i did it was to go long every thing coupled to JPY. I did that and let the market sort out the best pair from the best crosses. I did not use hector Forex Strength Indicator to determine the best one.
I am personally in with 10% of my account. 5% with cad/jpy and 5% with aud/jpy.
I looked at the strongest forces driving the markets right now, which is china's never ending boom and the unrest across the middle east.
china's boom means a boom to australian economy, cause of the commodities that china needs. I think half of australia's economy is based on exporting commodities. So there you got a case for a strong aud.

The case for cad is just the unrest in middle east. Since they all got oil over there, and you got lybia in a full blown crisis, price of oil will shoot up. Since canada is exporting lots of oil, it's also more likely that it will rise than fall.
So that's how I came up with those two pairs.
  • #10,360
  • Apr 4, 2011 8:40am Apr 4, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Custos
I am personally in with 10% of my account. 5% with cad/jpy and 5% with aud/jpy.
I looked at the strongest forces driving the markets right now, which is china's never ending boom and the unrest across the middle east.
china's boom means a boom to australian economy, cause of the commodities that china needs. I think half of australia's economy is based on exporting commodities. So there you got a case for a strong aud.

The case for cad is just the unrest in middle east. Since they all got oil over there, and you got lybia in a full blown crisis,...
Makes sense, ....BASED on your logic, i guess XAU/jpy and XAG/jpy are good candidates too. Since world chaos are generally good for silver and gold. XAU/JPY already went from 110,000 to 120,000. While XAG/JPY has gone from 2800 to 3200. The yearly chart of XAG/JPY is insane. Oanda spreads for these are only 4.1 and 2.5 respectively.

So i should be looking at my CAD/JPY, AUD/JPY, XAU/JPY, XAG/JPY to be the main leaders.

Like i said, i spread mine around, letting the market gods sort out the good from the bad.

Thanks for the insight.


On fundamental vs technical. I personally, i think i have learn almost all i need from technicals, the real challenge now is fundamentals. Again, i appreciate the input.
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