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  • #741
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:02am Mar 24, 2011 1:02am
short eurgbp closed @breakeven...

8750-60 area is just too strong at the moment...

Might do this another way by putting a sell order @8745 or thereabouts...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #742
  • Mar 24, 2011 6:05am Mar 24, 2011 6:05am
A trader could always drop to the H4 and trade the bottom bounces with the stochcastics and price bars. There have been 6 good trades since this channel formed. The pair looks like a good short is in the making but it might take another 2-3 weeks before the move starts. On the weekly look the pair is sitting right at a 50% level on the fibs. A break up of that level (0.87398) would probably take the pair to (0.88087) a previous resistance level. From there it would be to the 61.8 level and maybe the short starts. Price action should tell us the way at these levels.
  • #743
  • Mar 24, 2011 6:33am Mar 24, 2011 6:33am
Quoting packtrain52
A trader could always drop to the H4 and trade the bottom bounces with the stochcastics and price bars. There have been 6 good trades since this channel formed. The pair looks like a good short is in the making but it might take another 2-3 weeks before the move starts. On the weekly look the pair is sitting right at a 50% level on the fibs. A break up of that level (0.87398) would probably take the pair to (0.88087) a previous resistance level. From there it would be to the 61.8 level and maybe the short starts. Price action should tell us the...
You are right on this one. I do not think we are going down soon. My longer term chart points up as well on the weekly chart.

In fact gbp is very weak at the moment and even with portugal issues cannot take on the euro. I think I am going to concentrate on trading the breakout of the top downtrend line. This pair has proven that the path of least resistance (the trend) is up

Thanks for your contribution
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #744
  • Mar 24, 2011 6:46am Mar 24, 2011 6:46am
I have uploaded a monthly chart. We are in a triangle trying to break upwards
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #745
  • Mar 25, 2011 1:09am Mar 25, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Olu
A week ago it seemed this pair was going to the moon. However it has fallen back into the range it broke out of. It has now flagged a sell according to my system

Price has closed below the 100sma
Stoch has turned and is heading down

an initial target is the bottom of the channel
Lower channel target reached. Will we continue to the downside. The aussie is showing a lot of strength at the moment. If we break down from 1.5750 area 1.52 area is the target
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud-daily-25032011-0808uk.jpg Size: 59 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #746
  • Mar 25, 2011 5:30am Mar 25, 2011 5:30am
Gbp is generally weak at the moment and this weakness is showing glaringly against the jpy.
I dont know about you but because of the fear of intervention it is riskier going long the jpy. It is said that there is a line in the sand around 80.80 thereabouts that is being watched for intervention. I for one think nothing can be done gbp decides to weaken on its own. Also the BOJ said it is not the strength of the jpy that was the problem but the speed with which it got stronger

We are back below the 100sma
stoch has turned down (would like to see it below 80 though)
Nice red candles after the doji
Price still below the MAs on the weekly
MACD on the weekly is about to cross downwards

A quick travel to 125 might be on the cards... Smaller than usual stakes should be used for this
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #747
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:59am Mar 25, 2011 10:59am
this pair has had a good rally from the lows and is now attacking the 100sma on the daily chart. A frw days is a long time in forex. 2 weeks ago we were looking for a confirmed entry got a short to the .62xx area. It might still happen but only price will tell when. It is now very overbought as shown by the stoch on the chart. Its behaviour around the 100sma in the coming days will determine whether its time to short
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #748
  • Mar 25, 2011 12:00pm Mar 25, 2011 12:00pm
half taken off @1.5631
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #749
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:05pm Mar 26, 2011 1:05pm
An ending diagonal points to reversal in elliott wave theory.

This could mean the euro is topping and the us$ is bottoming. A short in the euro cannot be taken until there is a breakdown from the formation
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #750
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:30am Mar 28, 2011 2:30am
Was not able to do more analysis over the weekend. This will hamper my ability to enter trades this week. Will need to catch up on this asap

I go into this week with the following positions

Short gbpaud from 1.5739 stop @breakeven (half taken off @1.5631)
Short May Sugar @27.37 stop @2837 (Currently under water...)


Wishing everyone loads of pips...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #751
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:00am Mar 28, 2011 3:00am
Are we seeing early signs of weakness here?

Price has taken a stab at the 100sma and subsequent candle patterns is showing a topping (not closed yet).
Stoch has turned wown from lofty highs as well.

This pair is bullish imho but maybe a substantial retracement is due
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #752
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:48am Mar 28, 2011 3:48am
This pair is rolling over. Abreak down fron current levels could spell the beginning of a stong wave downwards
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #753
  • Mar 28, 2011 1:53pm Mar 28, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting Olu
Was not able to do more analysis over the weekend. This will hamper my ability to enter trades this week. Will need to catch up on this asap

I go into this week with the following positions

Short gbpaud from 1.5739 stop @breakeven (half taken off @1.5631)
Short May Sugar @27.37 stop @2837 (Currently under water...)


Wishing everyone loads of pips...
Final half closed @1.5584.

Beautiful hammer formed. There might be short term respite for this pair. So the plan is to sell after after a possible correction...

May Sugar trade is still on...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #754
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:53pm Mar 28, 2011 4:53pm
This pair formed an inside bar on the daily chart yesterday. This in itself is not that much but couple this with an overbought state (stoch). Also price is finding the 100sma difficult to cross
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #755
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:01pm Mar 28, 2011 6:01pm
Big charts guys.

We need to close below .7325 or above .7950...till then we're stuck

We will find the true trend soon I would think.

good hunting,


golfer
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  • #756
  • Mar 28, 2011 6:12pm Mar 28, 2011 6:12pm
Quoting golferfx
Big charts guys.

We need to close below .7325 or above .7950...till then we're stuck

We will find the true trend soon I would think.

good hunting,


golfer
Sticking my neck out here. But I dont think we will be going to .7950. However will keep an eye so as not to be blindsided by my nzd bearishness

Thanks Golfer

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #757
  • Mar 29, 2011 12:22am Mar 29, 2011 12:22am
Morning chaps,

I uploaded a daily chart of GBPCAD, as you can see it is now threatening 1.5600 support after having gained more than 400 pips since last week it looks to be even ready to go further down, RSI is favorable.
I will watch for a 4h red candle closing below 1.5600 to short and target 1.5300
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  • #758
  • Edited 12:15am Mar 30, 2011 12:08am | Edited 12:15am
Long time no post

Yes I can see gbpcad is bearish. I even went out to the weekly and my conclusions are the same. Today price is trying to form a hammer at previous support but that may be nothing as a hammer is only a hammer whwn the candle is closed.
Stoch is oversold on the daily too.

check out the euraud as well. we have broken below last week's low...

Have not been able to post overnight because of my dayjob and afterwork committments. But will post asap.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #759
  • Edited 3:35am Mar 30, 2011 3:20am | Edited 3:35am
@3675

General euro weakness today. I believe 1.4000 is a tradable top and that we are going way down from here (actually late to the party...).

Weekly chart with my favorite MAs have not give a sell signal but when/if they do it would be time to add more to the position
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #760
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:43am Mar 30, 2011 3:43am
This pair has me a bit confused. Weekly chart says up but the daily chart says down. There is a struggle at the 8800 level which might resolve as it is doing today to the downside. If this turns out to be the high for the moment then we will have a huge fall on our hands. We have a fall today but is that because we are in the early stages of a reversal or because of temporary weakness of the euro today?

I would suggest that if any selling is done a break of the steep uptrend channel must be seen first
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-daily-30032011-1140uk.JPG Size: 83 KB
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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