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Higher low, lower high system

  • #4,001
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:19pm Mar 24, 2011 4:19pm
Hi Vantage,

Interested to hear your take on a trade which didn't work out. Just before Dan's trade discussed earlier but going the opposite way.

1hr 900 gmt negtive close after news, 15 min SS/inside bar rejecting 75 level/S1, 5 min lh sell at 6167 just below monthly pivot. Took a loss on this one, should have been a break even. There was a lower wick on the prior 15 min bar and neither the hourly or the 15 min could close below the MP.

Just wondering if you consider this valid as a system trade? Are 15min bars good enough and would you take after such a large fall (already done 100 pips since asian high). Thanks.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,002
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:08am Mar 25, 2011 2:08am
Quoting Ian
Hi Vantage,

Interested to hear your take on a trade which didn't work out. Just before Dan's trade discussed earlier but going the opposite way.

1hr 900 gmt negtive close after news, 15 min SS/inside bar rejecting 75 level/S1, 5 min lh sell at 6167 just below monthly pivot. Took a loss on this one, should have been a break even. There was a lower wick on the prior 15 min bar and neither the hourly or the 15 min could close below the MP.

Just wondering if you consider this valid as a system trade? Are 15min bars good enough and would you take...
I hate to take a trade so deep into a move if I am not up already.

We were up and took that same trade (posted on psych levels thread if I recall) BUT because the possibility was there that it would reverse we got to about +6 and decided if it goes fine if it doesn't we are not giving back good pips because of the lower wicks that had come up.

So yes we did take it but we didn't leave to hit stop. Out at BE.

After that as discussed at great length above we were not interested in buying as the reversal was too quick pre US open.
  • #4,003
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:12am Mar 25, 2011 2:12am
Quoting Vantage
After that as discussed at great length above we were not interested in buying as the reversal was too quick pre US open.
The only way to satisfy yourself on the concepts discussed above (ie quick FH/LO turns and slow pre US turns/resumption of London trend) is to look back at a lot of charts and see how often they work. Yes of course there will always be exceptions but if something works 70% of time would you rather run with those odds and trade around that plan?
  • #4,004
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:19am Mar 25, 2011 2:19am
Oh and with market profile POC giving such good SR levels have a look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...277528&page=72 kave and others doing some great work. A must read thread that one can hopes just keeps rolling on.
  • #4,005
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:58am Mar 25, 2011 2:58am
Quoting Vantage
Oh and with market profile POC giving such good SR levels have a look here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...277528&page=72 kave and others doing some great work. A must read thread that one can hopes just keeps rolling on.
Yes have started looking at this thread since you and Islander have been discussing Market Profile. Need to study from the beginning.

Thanks for your reply and all your very informative posts yesterday on this and Psych thread.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,006
  • Mar 25, 2011 4:03am Mar 25, 2011 4:03am
The POC line is clear but whats wierd is the line showing up on this pic at 6130 IS NOT showing on my live chart. Aha it does now when I make chart slightly wider, mmmmh.

No excuse I missed this head and shoulder in live action. The head is a clear 2b (right on LO so we left) and for whatever reason we missed the right shoulder lh.

Not our finest hour, oh well NEEEEXXXXTTTTTTT trade please!!

If you look again at how price respected the POC levels yesterday it is quite impressive.
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  • #4,007
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:01am Mar 28, 2011 4:01am
5980 was a major low from D chart. We broke through this am and had a small bounce which did suggest some more downside.

Left arrow down shows a nice lh after a neg 15 min close.

Then a small 15 hammer, we sold the lh that took out its low. Happy with +20.
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  • #4,008
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:13am Mar 28, 2011 4:13am
Took the same trade myself V. I notice you are now using CCI for divergence - me -I am sticking with CII. Cheers.
  • #4,009
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:27am Mar 28, 2011 4:27am
Quoting orientos
Took the same trade myself V. I notice you are now using CCI for divergence - me -I am sticking with CII. Cheers.
Hi Orietos
Nice to 'see' you again. I was hoping a few stops might have triggered for a decent move down but after missing out on Fri just happy to keep the account ticking over.

I'm trying wherever poss to stick to standard indi's. CCI does do a good job spotting div (as of course CII does also) which is quite important for those 2b trades.

Cheers
  • #4,010
  • Mar 28, 2011 12:54pm Mar 28, 2011 12:54pm
Dear Mrs. and Mr. Dave,
Hope u r doing good..

Since u keep an eye on market profile while trading, i wud like to attach a link that u think wud b helpful (provided u havnt seen it before.)

the entire site is very useful.

http://www.trading-naked.com/MarketProfile.htm

Regrds,
K Singh.
  • #4,011
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:12am Mar 30, 2011 3:12am
Quoting King Singh
Dear Mrs. and Mr. Dave,
Hope u r doing good..

Since u keep an eye on market profile while trading, i wud like to attach a link that u think wud b helpful (provided u havnt seen it before.)

the entire site is very useful.

http://www.trading-naked.com/MarketProfile.htm

Regrds,
K Singh.
Thanks will have a look.
  • #4,012
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:13am Mar 30, 2011 3:13am
Missed some opportunites on gu from hl's, some upper wicks and divergence kept us out.
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  • #4,013
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:16am Mar 30, 2011 3:16am
Eur 1hr closed positive, 15 min was all hammers and the last hammer that closed lower was a cause of concern but the 1hr pos close trumped that. We took the 5 min hl waited until we got to top of 15 min hammer. Missed a few pips there.

Anyway we got to 4103 D pivot with no real worries so we exited days open/fib combo at 4108.
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  • #4,014
  • Mar 30, 2011 3:17am Mar 30, 2011 3:17am
Quoting Vantage
Eur 1hr closed positive, 15 min was all hammers and the last hammer that closed lower was a cause of concern but the 1hr pos closed trumped that. We took the 5 min hl waited until we got to top of 15 min hammer. Missed a few pips there.

Anyway we got to 4103 D pivot with no real worries so we exited days open/fib combo at 4108.
15 min chart for above trade.
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  • #4,015
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:40am Apr 1, 2011 5:40am
Probably a little unwise taking this today (NFP) but worked.

1 hr hammer off today's open, yest. low and MS1, 15 min pos close, 5 min hl.
Long at 6038, out at daily pivot 6065 for +27.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,016
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:42am Apr 1, 2011 5:42am
Quoting Ian
Probably a little unwise taking this today (NFP) but worked.

1 hr hammer off today's open, yest. low and MS1, 15 min pos close, 5 min hl.
Long at 6038, out at daily pivot 6065 for +27.

Attachment

Attachment
Very nice trade, if you're gonna go for it on NFP day might as well do it when everything is lining up 100%. Mrs V was watching the charts and decided to leave due to the coming news.

I'll post some charts on that same trade just now.
  • #4,017
  • Apr 1, 2011 5:46am Apr 1, 2011 5:46am
As you can see nice divergence at Y's low, POC 6014 combo. A nice move up to the D pivot 6065. I recall Seth Gregory saying gu tends to gravitate to pivot on nfp days and it certainly did today.
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  • #4,018
  • Edited 4:32pm Apr 4, 2011 6:37am | Edited 4:32pm
Two break even trades this am.

Missed the 2b at LO.

FH closed as shooting star rejection of R1. Shortly afterwards a 15 min negative close and 5 min lh. Sold at 6145. Went to b/e at Friday's high waiting to see if we could push down to 25/MR1/Monthly pivot combo. Got taken out on the pullback from Fri high.

Second trade 1 hr hammer rejection of Friday's high MR1 and monthly pivot. Waited for 15 min shooting star to fail after 5 min hl. Entry at 6144. Stop to b/e when 50 initially held. Targeting today's high at 75 level/R1. Stopped at b/e.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #4,019
  • Apr 4, 2011 7:16am Apr 4, 2011 7:16am
Quoting Ian
Two break even trades this am.

Missed the 2b at LO.

FH closed as shooting star rejection of R1. Shortly afterwards a 15 min negative close and 5 min lh. Sold at 6145. Went to b/e at Friday's high waiting to see if we could push down to 25/MR1/Monthly pivot combo. Got taken out on the pullback fron Fri high.

Second trade 1 hr hammer rejection of...
Hi Ian
Mrs V also had 2 BE trades this am.

I was busy with normal everyday stuff ie a family member shot a kudu or something similar yesterday (yes they do that here but you eat what you shoot). We packed this thing in our chest freezer and then took to the butcher this morning. The bottom bag stuck in ice and we waited to defrost first. Anyway that whole lot (plus clearing up some blood and gunk in the garage) took a while.

With little follow through we can just hope that US session will be OK.

Personally I don't hunt, at my age I'm not going to complete the ritual for first kill.
  • #4,020
  • Apr 4, 2011 7:24am Apr 4, 2011 7:24am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Ian
Mrs V also had 2 BE trades this am.

I was busy with normal everyday stuff ie a family member shot a kudu or something similar yesterday (yes they do that here but you eat what you shoot). We packed this thing in our chest freezer and then took to the butcher this morning. The bottom bag stuck in ice and we waited to defrost first. Anyway that whole lot (plus clearing up some blood and gunk in the garage) took a while.

With little follow through we can just hope that US session will be OK.

Personally I don't hunt, at my age I'm not going...
Wow that's a different world down there! I'm shortly off out of the office to buy a prawn sandwich for lunch. Maybe tuna if they've sold out of prawn. That's about as exciting as it gets around here.
Follow, don't anticipate.
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