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vsa with Malcolm

  • #17,481
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:23am Mar 27, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Magix
Keep in mind, that the more you complicate things, the tougher it is on you.

The market is always here, consuming people who fail to take that time to commit to an understanding.

This isn't a battle of who is right and who is wrong, it is about basic overall market perception...

I mean really...just because somebody doesn't use an indicator or because somebody does, doesn't take away from the quality of person they are or the size of profits they can expect...

The only side you should really be on, is your own.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=281299...
Well said.
  • #17,482
  • Mar 27, 2011 11:26am Mar 27, 2011 11:26am
monthly chart of usd-index... ring a bell?
Attached Image
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #17,483
  • Mar 27, 2011 1:25pm Mar 27, 2011 1:25pm
I attached hourly USDCHF.

Do gurus think it's a ND bar, or just a herd jump into market top?
I'm worried there's hidden selling in that bar.
Price is also very close to strong reversal in MML.

If I correlate with EU hourly, there's also strength in the down move, and the last candle looks like a test.

Wonder how it'll be played out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 244 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.jpg Size: 337 KB
  • #17,484
  • Mar 27, 2011 1:52pm Mar 27, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting ivonivon
I attached hourly USDCHF.

Do gurus think it's a ND bar, or just a herd jump into market top?
I'm worried there's hidden selling in that bar.
Price is also very close to strong reversal in MML.

If I correlate with EU hourly, there's also strength in the down move, and the last candle looks like a test.

Wonder how it'll be played out.
Well if that bar was all selling the next bar couldn't be up... acutually 3 of the next 4 were up... looks like 4060 was bought again as it was on Thursday.

I don't know if 4280 will fall until after EU rate announcement but if we test it early enough this week we could very well see 4400 which has been another level of price conjestion were bulls and bears spent some time bouncing back and forth.

If EU rate hike has truly been priced in we could see a real nice drop off if they maintain rates.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,485
  • Edited 2:47pm Mar 27, 2011 2:16pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting pres78
Well if that bar was all selling the next bar couldn't be up... acutually 3 of the next 4 were up... looks like 4060 was bought again as it was on Thursday.

I don't know if 4280 will fall until after EU rate announcement but if we test it early enough this week we could very well see 4400 which has been another level of price conjestion were bulls and bears spent some time bouncing back and forth.

If EU rate hike has truly been priced in we could see a real nice drop off if they maintain rates.
There seems to hard buyers at 4050 again.
The weekly is showing strong background, two weeks ago closing on high volume. I have a feeling that we will see a new high in the coming second week. it seems that last week has closed on a downbar ns, but still closing above highs, and it may very well continue to test demand.
  • #17,486
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:27pm Mar 27, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting PipPipPip
There seems to hard buyers at 4050 again.
The weekly is showing strong background, two weeks ago closing on high volume. I have a feeling that we will see a new high in the coming second week. it seems that last week has closed on a downbar ns, but still closing on highs, and it may very well continue to test demand.
we are currently at 4025, we broke 4050 during non retail market hours which is significant. 4000 should be tested withing 24hours.
  • #17,487
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:31pm Mar 27, 2011 2:31pm
Quoting ivonivon
I attached hourly USDCHF.

Do gurus think it's a ND bar, or just a herd jump into market top?
I'm worried there's hidden selling in that bar.
Price is also very close to strong reversal in MML.

If I correlate with EU hourly, there's also strength in the down move, and the last candle looks like a test.

Wonder how it'll be played out.
The eur usd 1 hour chart you posted and the highlighted bar to me does not look like stopping volume. We will have to wait and see in the next 24 hours but that bar at that level could be position squaring and selling pushing through previous support. Last week the up bar which I incorrectly thought was demand had the same behavioristics as the one we see now.

Markets will have a lot to digest this week. Having said that; 4000 is the next level to watch.
  • #17,488
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:32pm Mar 27, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
we are currently at 4025, we broke 4050 during non retail market hours which is significant. 4000 should be tested withing 24hours.

We could see 1.4 before most of our brokers ever open... Based on this significant move down since Friday close I still see Monday as an upday. SO over the weekend before heading higher.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,489
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:39pm Mar 27, 2011 2:39pm
Quoting pres78
We could see 1.4 before most of our brokers ever open... Based on this significant move down since Friday close I still see Monday as an upday. SO over the weekend before heading higher.
Why?
  • #17,490
  • Mar 27, 2011 2:40pm Mar 27, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting Sonofsin5
Why?
Daily and Weekly downbars don't look they have enough downward strength to break 1.4.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,491
  • Edited 3:00pm Mar 27, 2011 2:41pm | Edited 3:00pm
Quoting ivonivon
I attached hourly USDCHF...Do gurus think it's a ND bar, or just a herd jump into market top?...
Not a guru but here's what I see. The bar in question is a type of No Buying Pressure Bar. Its range has increased over the prior bar but it closes in the middle on volume less than the previous two bars.

Let's back up for a second.

Take a look at the third Herd bar, which you have called Pushing thru supply. It is tested on the very next interval. However, this test fails. The market is then re-tested on the next interval and this one is good, but it passes on the NBP bar.

I would be looking for another test in the area of the close of the herd bar if this market is strong. If price falls below that level, I would be looking for a No Demand moving into that level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #17,492
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:06pm Mar 27, 2011 3:06pm
they seem to have gone on a little stophunt below 4050 in early interbank. but i still cant decide whether this is going up or down. the stophunt seems to have been done so no reason for it to drop under 4050 again other than legitimate selling (assuming it gets back above 4050, probably will on the gap close).

if its going to attempt 4280 again this would be a nice 4h double bottom to do it from, im just not convinced its going up, and rsi doesnt show bullish divergence on it either. hmmmmmm
  • #17,493
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:33pm Mar 27, 2011 3:33pm
4020-4000 should be tought level for bears to crack...This is first re-test since breaking through...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.jpg Size: 190 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,494
  • Mar 27, 2011 3:38pm Mar 27, 2011 3:38pm
buy one get one free:
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #17,495
  • Mar 27, 2011 4:11pm Mar 27, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting mima
buy one get one free:
Do you ever actually post any charts or analysis or anything that remotely resembles VSA?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,496
  • Mar 27, 2011 4:40pm Mar 27, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting pres78
Do you ever actually post any charts or analysis or anything that remotely resembles VSA?
I held my tongue/fingers earlier but I was wondering the same thing as well.
  • #17,497
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:31pm Mar 27, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting pres78
Do you ever actually post any charts or analysis or anything that remotely resembles VSA?
Quoting KinsaleForex
I held my tongue/fingers earlier but I was wondering the same thing as well.

Thank you for reply...I started to learn VSA since Shamus started his thread...and I use it all the time...in present time...Anyway my comments shouldn't affect you or anyone else...have a fun and good time...

P.S. these guys are here again...
Attached Image
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #17,498
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:34pm Mar 27, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting mima
Thank you for reply...I started to learn VSA since Shamus started his thread...and I use it all the time...in present time...Anyway my comments shouldn't affect you or anyone else...have a fun and good time...

P.S. these guys are here again...
Well done ...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #17,499
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:44pm Mar 27, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting mima
Thank you for reply...I started to learn VSA since Shamus started his thread...and I use it all the time...in present time...Anyway my comments shouldn't affect you or anyone else...have a fun and good time...

P.S. these guys are here again...
You sound very certain and confident.

Oh, and There is a cute one on the bottom left.
  • #17,500
  • Mar 27, 2011 9:20pm Mar 27, 2011 9:20pm
Not VSA related, but hourly EU seems repeating the H&S pattern on the first March.

According to pattern we'll see a retracement back to lower low (possibly 1.4000), before moving up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 72 KB
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