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  • #29,021
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:46am Mar 25, 2011 9:46am
I looked at my chart and thought "Where's this baby going?" and so I thought I'd come here and say hello. I never thought a pair could create such passion and vitriol! Looking a bit toppy? (Cringes and wraps head in arms...)

Friday afternoon profit taking? I'm thinking a little short. Just something that might look good when I post a chart in a couple of months time. Have a great weekend everyone.
Gone to a better place
  • #29,022
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:55am Mar 25, 2011 9:55am
Wow! that was one hell of a jump, perhaps running it up before a nice drop, I"m underwater right now, can still breath ....but sometimes AUSUSD is my drug...I can't leave it alone....LOL...fundementally no reason to short other then the bonce and rejection from previous high as a motivator, I'm sure a lot of stops just got hit
Never been vouched
  • #29,023
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:59am Mar 25, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Warwick
Rubbish .... Because price levels have moved strongly against his positions, he should be banned? Thats absurd.

Sure many of us may stand on a soap box once in a while but thats what forums are for - to voice opinions.

What if he were correct, i'll be all good then right?


Cmon.... calm down.
The point is, not only was he incorrect, he was rude about it. Calling people toilets does not exactly endear positive feelings. Also, calling for a price of .8600 in the face of one of the strongest uptrends ever seen is, in a word, reckless. This thread is full of new and easily impressioned traders. To continue to post, many many times, the same theory is potential very harmful. Most experienced traders are here for some fun banter and to help others.... not to watch trainwrecks.

Regards,
  • #29,024
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:04am Mar 25, 2011 10:04am
Quoting FX-Petra
The point is, not only was he incorrect, he was rude about it. Calling people toilets does not exactly endear positive feelings. Also, calling for a price of .8600 in the face of one of the strongest uptrends ever seen is, in a word, reckless. This thread is full of new and easily impressioned traders. To continue to post, many many times, the same theory is potential very harmful. Most experienced traders are here for some fun banter and to help others.... not to watch trainwrecks.

Regards,
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29,025
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:06am Mar 25, 2011 10:06am
dont short this baby...earthquake money coming thru from usa to aud to nzd...thats why we are seeing this pair go higher. type in eqc in google and you can see all the claims that go thru. further research will show that the money from insurers is coming from europe and usa.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,026
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:28am Mar 25, 2011 10:28am
Quoting frothy
dont short this baby...earthquake money coming thru from usa to aud to nzd...thats why we are seeing this pair go higher. type in eqc in google and you can see all the claims that go thru. further research will show that the money from insurers is coming from europe and usa.


I am at loss about what you have been saying. Earlier today you were clearly for shorts:
Quoting frothy
Anybody who reads this post is gonna owe me beers...
Start shorting this piece of crap..... Short this MUTHER #!*&#&
Yet, based on the same reasoning in relation to EQC, you are now for longs.
  • #29,027
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:10am Mar 25, 2011 11:10am
mags...i am sorry for your loss...but I think if you are short....dont worry ....shorting here is a pretty good strategy....just dont overleverage...and we will test par again..sometime in the future. I took a loss too...but I am not standing in the way of this train....I think we are capitulating at these levels....but leave room for 1.03 + just in case..

Also look at the volume on the 4 hour charts...it looks very commercial. Alot of the other pairs are down today. So I am expecting that when the buying ends...this puppy is heading south in a fat hurry.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,028
  • Mar 25, 2011 11:33am Mar 25, 2011 11:33am
Quoting frothy
mags...i am sorry for your loss...but I think if you are short....dont worry ....shorting here is a pretty good strategy....just dont overleverage...and we will test par again..sometime in the future. I took a loss too...but I am not standing in the way of this train....I think we are capitulating at these levels....but leave room for 1.03 + just in case..

Also look at the volume on the 4 hour charts...it looks very commercial....
Um... You might want to re-read my last post, as you got it completely wrong. The term at loss means confused, rather than taking a financial loss.
  • #29,029
  • Mar 25, 2011 10:49pm Mar 25, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting frothy
going long.....im seeing this baby at 1.0350
Yes possible indeed. That's exactly where I'll be looking for shorts. Around 1.0320-1.0360. Difficult to say, can't find any good trendlines at the top of this chart. There is a (minor) horizontal one, back from Apr 1982 @ 1.04, but it'll probably drop before that. Time will tell.
  • #29,030
  • Mar 26, 2011 10:44am Mar 26, 2011 10:44am
Quoting bazooki
Yes possible indeed. That's exactly where I'll be looking for shorts. Around 1.0320-1.0360. Difficult to say, can't find any good trendlines at the top of this chart. There is a (minor) horizontal one, back from Apr 1982 @ 1.04, but it'll probably drop before that. Time will tell.
I know this might seem like I am picking on you here, but your statement is generally the Number 1 failure for traders in market.

Rather then trending with price to a point you would view as resistance, you have a statement that you will be looking for a counter position in a place where you don't really see any reason, except a minor horizontal one...

Over the last week, if you read back, it is quite apparent that some have a bearish mind because the chart looks toppy...how many of them have actually capitalized on a short position, and wouldn't it have made more sense to follow the immediate trend?

Nobody likes to be the buyer of the tops and the seller at bottoms, but really how many market traders are Margined Out on trying to pick tops and bottoms for counters?

Have a look at the daily chart for a sec...and lemme ask you this...if this was a 5, 15, or 30m time frame, would you still be looking to short?

Yes, historical prices can have an impact on value, and yes, we can see price point reactions....but on the short side...if you got your price...really, what sort of profit would you be looking to take?

I know, most are going to do what they continue to do...just thought I would drop down a couple of points to ponder...Enjoy the weekend all..

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29,031
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:42pm Mar 26, 2011 12:42pm
Number 2 would be relying on zigzags, stochs, macds, volume indicators in forex...
  • #29,032
  • Mar 26, 2011 12:46pm Mar 26, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting bazooki
Number 2 would be relying on zigzags, stochs, macds, volume indicators in forex...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29,033
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:14pm Mar 26, 2011 1:14pm
yeah j/k, anyway I'm just looking for a pullback/short as a counter-trade of this latest uptrend. I'm not really trading of that TL I mentioned was minor, but on market sentiment, and markets are topping in general. Whether this is a false breakout (of the March highs) or not, nobody knows. My first target would be ~1.0050. If the markets continue to be happy, the dollar continues to go down (dollar index still holding support though), I'm wrong and will have a SL in place.
  • #29,034
  • Mar 26, 2011 1:32pm Mar 26, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting bazooki
yeah j/k, anyway I'm just looking for a pullback/short as a counter-trade of this latest uptrend. I'm not really trading of that TL I mentioned was minor, but on market sentiment, and markets are topping in general. Whether this is a false breakout (of the March highs) or not, nobody knows. My first target would be ~1.0050. If the markets continue to be happy, the dollar continues to go down (dollar index still holding support though), I'm wrong and will have a SL in place.
I keep an eyeball on Dixy too...Trading it's S/R zones with trade related pairs on the strongest correlations...and really nobody has an idea of where this is going...

I stopped by a few days ago to see the ongoing set of banter and just had to comment...one fella posting the next 1000 pip directional move...These are the ones that really make ya laugh...A soap box bear, screaming to all others...today, really who looks the fool...

Anyways...

The reason I posted on what you had said is because I see this same logic eminate with a lot of traders, and not much different when I used to hold a consistent pattern of loss in my own account...price looks toppy, I must sell, price is at bottom, I must buy...5 accounts later, I have had to take a long time to rid myself of this logic and bad habit and try to share my experience with others so they won't have to follow the same path...

On the indicator side of things, well, to a certain extent, I will 100% agree with ya...if somebody doesn't understand the relation, these can all spell certain death in market. No indicator on it's own will make you a trader, but utilizing them under the proper conditions will improve your chance of survival.

The ZigZag...

Anybody that uses this as an indicator to trade will die a fast and horrible death in market. It is not an indicator, it tells the story of highs and lows...supports and resistance.

I have a historical 30m chart to show you the effect of using the ZZ, as well as to show how when resistance gets broken how much further price can move. Look at the 30m chart and compare it to the last chart I posted on the daily...2 peaks of sells, and when price moved out of this zone, took a long time to come back to test if for support.

Support to resistance trading...When support is broken, look to this line for resistance. When resistance is broken, look to this line for support.

Yeah dude, I know it looks like I was singling you out...really nothing personal, just wanted to take time during the weekend to make sure that people will approach the opening bells and the new week with a fresh set of eyes, maybe even stir up a Technical Conversation...

Best to you in the days coming...

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #29,035
  • Mar 28, 2011 3:14am Mar 28, 2011 3:14am
very disappointed, seems on manipulation.

I was trying to catch a prise on SR, but, unfortunately, got stopped at long from purple S and price never touch a green S, then been stopped shorting from high purple R and got stopped again. seems 1.0370 is a next try to short, or 1.4, otherwise only longs on retrace

Attached Image


correct me where I wrong, I rarely trade this one, seems is mad
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #29,036
  • Mar 28, 2011 2:24pm Mar 28, 2011 2:24pm
I am not short nor am i long...but I did stay at a holiday inn last night...
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #29,037
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:16pm Mar 28, 2011 4:16pm
Short.

First chart is showing a long cycle complete (pending pivot candle)

Second chart is assuming this is a pivot candle where my short targets will be to start off. (stop at red highlight...tp green lines)

Good luck
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  • #29,038
  • Mar 28, 2011 7:18pm Mar 28, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting JanPoko
What about trying to read a post before you jump on your keyboard? I said the man uses insulting and foul language and this is not allowed generally, therefore the ban. The fact that he hijacked the thread and that his forecasts are as stupid as any forecast can be is another thing. That was the reason for starting new thread, where he is not allowed to post - does it say anything to you?
So, once more: next time kindly read a post carefuly before you answer and don't make yourself a fool...

Thats because many genuine nobjockular traders..are exactly that, and i respect you for that

Did add shorts on at 1.0297 and 1.0254 to compliment their cousins at 1.02 and below, which i posted, as someone wanted to see proof!
Level 4 Audi target moved from 0.8900-0.9200..towards the best part of 0.9650. Got orders in to add at 1.0410, if some genuine one decides to help.
For the record, i have no worries on the "bubbling" effect on any given session per session basis...playing this solely on the daily chart.

Hope this helps
Sanks
  • #29,039
  • Mar 28, 2011 8:00pm Mar 28, 2011 8:00pm
Support Level are so strong @ 1.0220/30 ....
I've been holding short positions for a while ...
Just closed my short positions for - 9 PIPS
That's hurt ... been holding for 3 days ...
Pay painful interest rates...
Now i'm going long ...
watch it dropped .... the market seem to do
the opposite of what i always did ....
  • #29,040
  • Mar 28, 2011 9:09pm Mar 28, 2011 9:09pm
Quoting Magix
I know this might seem like I am picking on you here, but your statement is generally the Number 1 failure for traders in market.

Rather then trending with price to a point you would view as resistance, you have a statement that you will be looking for a counter position in a place where you don't really see any reason, except a minor horizontal one...

Over the last week, if you read back, it is quite apparent that some have a bearish mind because the chart looks toppy...how many of them have actually capitalized on a short position, and wouldn't...
agree, I rekon for the aud especially in the asia sesson, markets hardly work on Fibonacci or support/resists line. The typical asia style of manipulating the market
For instance, markets normally hesitate before reach a fib level, then shakeup for a while(20-40 mins), then went up through.

for that case, you have to sense the market, because the top leverl based on your analysis is just merely an indicator.
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