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AUD/USD

  • #28,981
  • Mar 24, 2011 6:57am Mar 24, 2011 6:57am
I am out at least for now

Holding my last long pair at the low point during Japan Crisis.

The trend index is neutral now.
should be seeing some oversold soon.
This will be a shorting opportunities.
Possible shorting level @ 1.0181.

- Imagine that 1.0173 still a good buy @ 15-mins trending.
  • #28,982
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:04am Mar 24, 2011 7:04am
Yes magix - I agree with you.
Co-relation trading is complex ~ more tricky than average movement.
But I do observe this for Long/Short (seldom cz i am bad at this =P) for some check point.

Well - it is hard to explain. =P
  • #28,983
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:10am Mar 24, 2011 7:10am
Quoting evelee8
Yes magix - I agree with you.
Co-relation trading is complex ~ more tricky than average movement.
But I do observe this for Long/Short (seldom cz i am bad at this =P) for some check point.

Well - it is hard to explain. =P
A good tool to have if you are trading multiple pairs in the USD stream is the USDX chart. Watching this can help you understand if pairs are moving against on their own strength or on USD weakness...

Just thought it worth mentioning.

I run Demo charts from Windsor Forex for this tool (USDX)...that and because they are only 4 digits, easier math without that fraction of a pip...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #28,984
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:27am Mar 24, 2011 7:27am
Quoting evelee8
I think this is my personal observation - might be right or might be wrong.
If there is a big buy for eur VS usd - the aud normally will follow with some spike.
Check this out you can determine the correlation yourself, nice tool and it's free http://www.actionforex.com/markets/d...2009031181561/
Never been vouched
  • #28,985
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:55am Mar 24, 2011 7:55am
I am unsure where to take profit, the normal me says partial now, let the rest untill 1.0245, the greedy me says partial 1.0245, rest @ 1.0345...

I do expect a small pullback tho... would make sense now
  • #28,986
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:03am Mar 24, 2011 8:03am
Thanks iono and magix.
These are quite useful tools and good reference to traders..

still out from market now.
It is too bullish to reenter the market at least for now..

Technical indicator from 1 hour trend show some potential SELLING:
WILLIAMS % = 0 (Sell)
STOCH = 93.1581 (sell)
RSI = 76 (Neutral)
  • #28,987
  • Edited 9:18am Mar 24, 2011 8:59am | Edited 9:18am
I am out of this position, the aud/usd did me well! I will wait for the right time to go short. This is one bad boy! My only problem with this pair is that as soon as hint of USD bullishness, this pair will rocket down 500 pips in days....Thats scary. Its easy to go long on this pair...but difficult to go short. I can't think of any hedge funds going "full out long" here...mostly commercial is driving the pair higher these last week, which I think is what we are seeing. I can see hedge funds opening long term short positions or atleast starting too..which is why we are seeing cap on the 1.0250. This is why I think we are seeing the steady range (slow trend higher). I mean think about it....Australia, a population of 20 or so million and a market of 1/ 15th of the USA is above par with the dollar....LOL. Any hint of any bullishness on the Dollar and this baby is smoked. Look at the corrections in that past....its insane....on average three weeks and this baby is down 1500 pips..LOL and on average 18 weeks and this puppy is up 1500 pips...1/6th the momentum to the upside. and 6 times the momentum to the downside...SCARY! HAHA...look back at 2008....12 weeks 5000 pips..LOL. Same wit the USD/CAD......weeks and weeks of pure boredom...followed by days of SHEAR TERROR!!! I think I talked myself into going short!! LOL
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #28,988
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:46am Mar 24, 2011 9:46am
Quoting frothy
I am out of this position, the aud/usd did me well! I will wait for the right time to go short. This is one bad boy! My only problem with this pair is that as soon as hint of USD bullishness, this pair will rocket down 500 pips in days....Thats scary. Its easy to go long on this pair...but difficult to go short. I can't think of any hedge funds going "full out long" here...mostly commercial is driving the pair higher these last week, which I think is what we are seeing. I can see hedge funds opening long term short positions or atleast starting...
All about the interest mate! These big boys are loving loading the boat getting 10+ free pips a week. May not seem like a lot, but the lot sizes that these guys are playing with it's just icing on the cake from the profits they make running it up.

This thing will fall, and will fall hard when it does. But I truly believe we need to see a reduction of interest first for that to happen. Then let those who are loaded for a long time start uncoiling this baby!
  • #28,989
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:51am Mar 24, 2011 9:51am
sell limit at major resistance @ 1.02.
Or anyone expecting for breakout?
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-M...audusd_d11.png
Regards
  • #28,990
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:44am Mar 24, 2011 10:44am
possible up towards 1.03.... but
Logics do not apply in FOREX
  • #28,991
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:49am Mar 24, 2011 10:49am
Quoting ely
Hi, don't know why you want proof..but two batches of shorts below from 1.0006 and 1.0060 ..and i closed twice this morning, on the ones i opened at 1.0097. Also sometimes i close knowing it will go higher...hence closed 1.0049 and re opened 1.0060....hence when i get a better price, i don't re post
Much Better prices available for ya Ely...

Quoting ely
See this.
Its my call...whats yours to what price its heading. ..what are your current positions to back your theory?
I suppose you're gunna be really crabby today huh?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #28,992
  • Mar 24, 2011 12:46pm Mar 24, 2011 12:46pm
Quoting ely
See this.
Its my call...whats yours to what price its heading. ..what are your current positions to back your theory?
last post 18 hrs ago. I hear crickets chirpping. All kidding aside, I hope ely did not get hurt to bad on this most recent run up. There may well be some downside ahead--- seems more or less up to the equity markets at the present moment.

Regards,
  • #28,993
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:01pm Mar 24, 2011 1:01pm
Thanks for your concern boys....but i got a batch 1.0200 in the afternoon..cancelled the 1.0240 order...not to bothered about the 40 pip wait.

Didn't post today...my little'n broke his arm falling off the bouncy castle!
Kept waiting in hospital A&E for about 6 hours!

All the best which ever way it goes.
  • #28,994
  • Mar 24, 2011 2:06pm Mar 24, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting ely
Thanks for your concern boys....but i got a batch 1.0200 in the afternoon..cancelled the 1.0240 order...not to bothered about the 40 pip wait.

Didn't post today...my little'n broke his arm falling off the bouncy castle!
Kept waiting in hospital A&E for about 6 hours!

All the best which ever way it goes.
i read this post all the time. hope ely your little one is ok and hope you don't lose any money. hope nobody on here loses anything, may we all make money.
  • #28,995
  • Edited 8:33pm Mar 24, 2011 7:00pm | Edited 8:33pm
OK Guys, is it going to be up or is it going to be down…I know what ely will say.
Well, take a look at my monthly chart.
Does that look like a Dragonfly Doji and only 5 days to go before April?
If it stays as a Dragonfly then be watchful, because Dragonflies can go either way. If it comes down a little, then we have a Hammer and a Hammer is a reversal pattern.
One word of advice: don’t sit watching the Monthly chart all day, your eyes may begin to see spots.


Just for you ely...sorry I couldn't resist. I hope you enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMjVN...eature=related
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  • #28,996
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:31pm Mar 24, 2011 8:31pm
All the technical indicator are bearish now.
It has broken below the 1.0192 few times.
Daily heat map also show a strong selling interest.
There will be a Long opportunities if it break below 1.0180.

Event on the risk:
USD ~ Final GDP q/q Exp 3%
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Exp 68.1%
  • #28,997
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:22pm Mar 24, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting ely
Didn't post today...my little'n broke his arm falling off the bouncy castle!
Kept waiting in hospital A&E for about 6 hours!

All the best which ever way it goes.
Hope your little one is ok.

Price seems to be supported at H1 20EMA for now. If the bullish engulfing candle plays out it may retest the 1.025 high.
Attached Image
  • #28,998
  • Mar 24, 2011 11:18pm Mar 24, 2011 11:18pm
Personally, I would be cautious with the recent rally, it happened very (too) easily. Historically that has always yielded a warning sign. I am expecting some downward movement from this point...
  • #28,999
  • Edited 4:27am Mar 25, 2011 1:07am | Edited 4:27am
It’s as if buying AUDUSD is a favourite pastime of many.

Cable and Euro are tanking. Yeah, let’s buy AUDUSD. Markets are slow today. So? Let’s buy AUDUSD. Chinese economy may be going downhill. Who cares! Let’s buy AUDUSD. Gee, I’m bored. Whatever, let’s buy AUDUSD.
  • #29,000
  • Mar 25, 2011 2:08am Mar 25, 2011 2:08am
Quoting mags01
It’s almost if buying AUDUSD is a favourite pastime of many.

Cable and Euro are tanking. Yeah, let’s buy AUDUSD. Markets are slow today. So? Let’s buy AUDUSD. Chinese economy may be going downhill. Who cares! Let’s buy AUDUSD. Gee, I’m bored. Whatever, let’s buy AUDUSD.
It may retest the historic high of 1.025 today, will look for sell opportunity if we get there.
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