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Higher low, lower high system

  • #3,981
  • Mar 21, 2011 7:15am Mar 21, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Vantage
From memory they were around 3 pips and apart from doji's thats about the limit that i'd like to enter on.
That's great, thanks.
Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #3,982
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:43am Mar 22, 2011 5:43am
I missed the hl at 8.15 gmt, not happy so moving on. PA got very lazy before the UK news, got this hl, stop to BE sitting at about +14. Will look to exit with something if we don't push up to RN. Could of course be 85/15 trade but we have R2 and 62% ext of Y's range just above 6400.

We'll see.
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  • #3,983
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:45am Mar 22, 2011 5:45am
Quoting Vantage
I missed the hl at 8.15 gmt, not happy so moving on. PA got very lazy before the UK news, got this hl, stop to BE sitting at about +14. Will look to exit with something if we don't push up to RN. Could of course be 85/15 trade but we have R2 and 62% ext of Y's range just above 6400.

We'll see.
Exited at RN. A fairly lazy pa day so happy to have those pips at least.
  • #3,984
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:12am Mar 22, 2011 10:12am
GU 1hr had 2 shooting stars, 15 min sell divergence. Mrs V sold 6378 it went nowhere and exited at BE.

Eur had hammers, suggesting up then 15 min flipped over also with sell divergence. It of course fell nicely.

Mrs V picked gu, bad luck.
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  • #3,985
  • Mar 23, 2011 7:27am Mar 23, 2011 7:27am
A great mornings trading. We didn't get all of these possible trades but it shows how we are looking at charts. I'll show 1hr charts also because the market profile indi we are using has been a great help also.

The 1hr has market profile key levels at 4168 and 4213 (also 50% of Y's range and D P area).

Left arrow down 2b at frankies half hour reversal at key level with divergence.

Left arrow up a 15 min shooting star reject of move below mornings lows, 2b with divergence also. Our 2b rules are very simple in and around LO, at key level with divergence.

2nd arrow down from left, 2b below RN/days open with divergence.

Right arrow up, hl in line with 1hr and 15 min pos close.

Right arrow down, price moves strongly to 85/15 trade area at the market profile high vol/50% of Y's range/D P combo. 15 min doji, 5 min lh with divergence at that key level.

5 possible trades for eur I'll post gu shortly.

I'm using cci 14 and macd 5 15 for looking at divergence for 2b trades, looks like I'll prob stick with cci. TWT on that.
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  • #3,986
  • Mar 23, 2011 7:39am Mar 23, 2011 7:39am
1hr Y shows market profile high vol at 6375 ie at psych level and days open. W M4 pivot at 6383.

Left arrow down shows frankies half hour reversal, 5 min lh at the extreme, key levels mentioned with divergence on the move up just before the lh. In this case the FH reversal trade didn't matter if you took eur or gu both worked nicely.

Middle arrow down was a lh but we weren't happy with 15 min candles. Right arrow down had 1 hr neg close and 15 min neg close, 100% system trade.

Another 2 or 3 great trades. Between eur and gu 7 poss trades perhaps more than normal. We had 3 with 1 BE so a good morning (no losing trades always a bonus).

Anyway we are looking at the market profile indi on 1 hr as an additional key SR area and looking to trade reactions to that area as per normal ie 2b's or hl/lh's.
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  • #3,987
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:50am Mar 23, 2011 11:50am
Quoting Vantage
1hr Y shows market profile high vol at 6375 ie at psych level and days open. W M4 pivot at 6383.

Left arrow down shows frankies half hour reversal, 5 min lh at the extreme, key levels mentioned with divergence on the move up just before the lh. In this case the FH reversal trade didn't matter if you took eur or gu both worked nicely.

Middle arrow down was a lh but we weren't happy with 15 min candles. Right arrow down had 1 hr neg close and 15 min neg close, 100% system trade.

Another 2 or 3 great trades. Between eur and gu 7 poss trades perhaps...
Isnt that middle arrow down a Higher low instead of a lower high ? i understnad why you said it is a lower high becuase of the previous major swing high ...but that move up (towards the middle arrow down) has several higher lows, doesnt this mean that the trend has changed ans is now bullish ? how did you know it would continue down ?

Thanks
Dan
  • #3,988
  • Mar 24, 2011 3:01am Mar 24, 2011 3:01am
Quoting dan89
Isnt that middle arrow down a Higher low instead of a lower high ? i understnad why you said it is a lower high becuase of the previous major swing high ...but that move up (towards the middle arrow down) has several higher lows, doesnt this mean that the trend has changed ans is now bullish ? how did you know it would continue down ?

Thanks
Dan
Middle arrow down was (as Mrs V says) a bigger picture lh, but as you quite rightly say was a hl/hh. We didn't take that one as I said and we waited for the 1hr and 15 min to turn and give 100% system lh entry.

So we didn't know it would continue down but when the 1hr closed with a shooting star, and all the other reasons stated above (reject of high vol, key area) and that failure indicated the move up was LO headfake. We were then happy to sell.
  • #3,989
  • Mar 24, 2011 3:02am Mar 24, 2011 3:02am
We have just exited eur 2b counter trend move for +10.
  • #3,990
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:28am Mar 24, 2011 7:28am
Quoting Vantage
We have just exited eur 2b counter trend move for +10.
thanks for the reply .. have you got a chart for this trade ?

Thanks
Dan
  • #3,991
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:46am Mar 24, 2011 7:46am
Quoting dan89
thanks for the reply .. have you got a chart for this trade ?

Thanks
Dan
Was discussing this one on psych levels, pivots + trend lines thread.

Left arrow up. At frankies half hour reversal time slot, 50 psych level, 38% fib on D chart (11 Mar low to high) ie a key level + divergence. Entry 4060.

All rules met 2b in and around LO at key level with divergence.

From there immediate range was broken at 4088, 15 min ma's had good upwards angle + 15 min hammer. We wanted to buy 5 min flag/hl at 4107 ish but lost contact, see right arrow up.
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  • #3,992
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:29am Mar 24, 2011 8:29am
thanks for the help v, appreciate it
  • #3,993
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:40am Mar 24, 2011 8:40am
HEy V, sorr yfor all the questions but i seem to be constantly entering the wrong side of the trade. could you have a look at this trade that i took that didnt exactly work out

i say that 15m had hammer indicating upwards move which was also at supoort level on daily pivots. i then wated for a higher low on 5 min and then entered on the break of the high first arrow down. Is there anything you can see wrong with this trade as price went up a little then flat then droped.

15m

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5 min

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thanks
Dan
  • #3,994
  • Mar 24, 2011 8:53am Mar 24, 2011 8:53am
Quoting dan89
HEy V, sorr yfor all the questions but i seem to be constantly entering the wrong side of the trade. could you have a look at this trade that i took that didnt exactly work out

i say that 15m had hammer indicating upwards move which was also at supoort level on daily pivots. i then wated for a higher low on 5 min and then entered on the break of the high first arrow down. Is there anything you can see wrong with this trade as price went up a little then flat then droped.

15m

Attachment

5 min

Attachment

thanks...
Hi Dan
To go counter trend before US open on the basis of a 15 min candle is very very dangerous and (for me) a very low prob trade. There was a small winning trade on the 2nd 15 min hammer, see arrow up, meaning that price had hung around at the lows for 75 mins before a small move up.

What works for us is in and around LO we will take 2b's as discussed (and hl/lh's with good 15 min candles) after that we are following 1hr.

So in and around LO we are thinking reversal, in and around US open we are thinking trend and rather miss a trade than jump in too quickly.

I'll post 1hr and 5 min chart shortly.
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  • #3,995
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:06am Mar 24, 2011 9:06am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Dan
To go counter trend before US open on the basis of a 15 min candle is very very dangerous and (for me) a very low prob trade. There was a small winning trade on the 2nd 15 min hammer, see arrow up, meaning that price had hung around at the lows for 75 mins before a small move up.

What works for us is in and around LO we will take 2b's as discussed (and hl/lh's with good 15 min candles) after that we are following 1hr.

So in and around LO we are thinking reversal, in and around US open we are thinking trend and rather miss a trade than...
hey v thanks for the reply, but im a little confused, you said in and around US open look for trend trades but you also said that counter trend before US open is dangerous, doesnt this mean that counter trend in and around US is what we would look for ?

or is it more like this :

Frankies half hour + LO look for REVERSAL

after 9:30 gmt ish look for TREND following 1 hr and 15m pos/neg close hh/hl

towards US open and after US open continue to look for TREND trades ?

Thanks
Dan
  • #3,996
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:11am Mar 24, 2011 9:11am
Quoting dan89
HEy V, sorr yfor all the questions but i seem to be constantly entering the wrong side of the trade. could you have a look at this trade that i took that didnt exactly work out

i say that 15m had hammer indicating upwards move which was also at supoort level on daily pivots. i then wated for a higher low on 5 min and then entered on the break of the high first arrow down. Is there anything you can see wrong with this trade as price went up a little then flat then droped.

15m

Attachment

5 min

Attachment

thanks...
The left arrow up on 5 min is before the pos 1hr close (red line) but a small hl win, took 75 mins for that move up to follow through. After a good morning we were not interested in any buying from what we saw. Pre US session take great care counter trend.

Anyway after the red line which shows the 1hr close there is a hl BUT it fails at the clear 6195 res level and IF we were buyers at right arrow up we would NOT be letting trade hit a resistance area come back and take our stop out.

We were done for day and I was posting like mad but normally we would be waiting for res level area to turn around for a sell.

Interestingly again the market profile POC area 6130 got hit post news giving a bounce.

Supp/res areas and trading those levels is key, not that we get it right always BUT its a major focus to be trading the right levels and POC becoming a bigger and bigger target area.

Hope this helps. In and around LO pa can turn quickly, in and around US open can take much longer 1-2 hours. If in doubt go back and check charts. NB remember to amend for summer time changes.
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  • #3,997
  • Edited 9:31am Mar 24, 2011 9:20am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting dan89
hey v thanks for the reply, but im a little confused, you said in and around US open look for trend trades but you also said that counter trend before US open is dangerous, doesnt this mean that counter trend in and around US is what we would look for ?

or is it more like this :

Frankies half hour + LO look for REVERSAL

after 9:30 gmt ish look for TREND following 1 hr and 15m pos/neg close hh/hl

towards US open and after US open continue to look for TREND trades ?

Thanks
Dan
Posted a million times in last 1hr and mind might not be working to word posts clearly.

I agree with your summary above. I would just say US session can obviously have a turn counter to London morning session and I'll be looking to follow those BUT like today (see charts above) the turn to buy gu could never break what became an obvious 6195 res area.

If 6195 had been broken upwards chances for hl buys would have been pretty good.

If in doubt have a look at 15 min ma's that never confirmed move up.

So in summary Lin and around LO, think reversal think quick. Pre US direction changes are much slower. If you try move pre US and it fails watch for London session trend resumption.

Watch S/R areas closely, they are key.

As I said on psych levels thread, LO for turns after that follow 15 min ma's (as EV has done for ages there) is a pretty good day trading strategy to follow.
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  • #3,998
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:23am Mar 24, 2011 9:23am
Quoting dan89
or is it more like this :

Frankies half hour + LO look for REVERSAL

after 9:30 gmt ish look for TREND following 1 hr and 15m pos/neg close hh/hl

towards US open and after US open continue to look for TREND trades ?

Thanks
Dan
See above post, this is the bit I agree with subject to above comments I made in post 3997.
  • #3,999
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:29am Mar 24, 2011 9:29am
Head spinning Mrs V wants me to go be hunter gatherer with credit card and buy some goodies, so I'm outta here. Dan I hope all those posts aren't confusing!! If they are we'll chat tomorrow. Cheers.
  • #4,000
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:39am Mar 24, 2011 9:39am
Quoting Vantage
Posted a million times in last 1hr and mind might not be working to word posts clearly.

I agree with your summary above. I would just say US session can obviously have a turn counter to London morning session and I'll be looking to follow those BUT like today (see charts above) the turn to buy gu could never break what became an obvious 6195 res area.

If 6195 had been broken upwards chances for hl buys would have been pretty good.

If in doubt have a look at 15 min ma's that never confirmed move up.

So in summary Lin and around LO, think...
I have been posting so much missed all trading last couple of hours but thats not a problem!!

6130 is the POC (only shown on 1hr). Have a look at above 15 min chart. Great hammer with divergence. 1hr has closed with a hammer, 15 min divergence at POC key area.

The 5 min hl that follows ALL OF that around 6170 is a nice trade.

Anyway now I'm definitely outta here.
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