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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,041
  • Edited 8:54am Mar 24, 2011 8:36am | Edited 8:54am
Quoting kave
A better strategy for EU for European session would have been to buy on VPOC of 4070. Stop at 4050 (nearest 50 pip round number) & target to 4100 & 4150 With buyers coming in below 4070. the momentum was swift for this pair. Hitting above mention target just.

Of cause there is a VPOC of 4177 yet to be hit.

Attachment
pre NY session yesterday's VAL was accepted and back tested, giving more weight IMO to a possible push thru to yesterday's VAH/naked POC. price is now testing the breakout of 4110 on what looks like decreasing volume from the recent high. This level is also the NY DIBL so should provide some good resistance. If it does not hold, then 1.4 may be in the cards today. If this level does hold, then we should see a move to near yesterday VAH IMO.

EDIT: image attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M15 Mar 24.png Size: 36 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #1,042
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:04am Mar 24, 2011 9:04am
.. another great experience when watching the text profile...
weird at first... and then seeing something that never seen before...

I guest kave have another story about it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-mp-letter2.png Size: 61 KB
...
  • #1,043
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:16am Mar 24, 2011 9:16am
Cool chart. I'd like to play around with that indicator, can you share?

Also, I was wondering if everyone uses the 70% rule. Has anyone tried playing a different value percentage since the forex market is a 24 hour market, the value area can be pretty large making it diffucult to determine market balance. Just thinking out loud, not saying anyone is wrong. Best of luck to all.
  • #1,044
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:16am Mar 24, 2011 9:16am
Quoting bandung
.. another great experience when watching the text profile...
weird at first... and then seeing something that never seen before...

I guest kave have another story about it...
Yeah...nice chart... no story yet but when are u letting us beta test your scrabble set ?
  • #1,045
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:20am Mar 24, 2011 9:20am
Quoting tgwhbb
pre NY session yesterday's VAL was accepted and back tested, giving more weight IMO to a possible push thru to yesterday's VAH/naked POC. price is now testing the breakout of 4110 on what looks like decreasing volume from the recent high. This level is also the NY DIBL so should provide some good resistance. If it does not hold, then 1.4 may be in the cards today. If this level does hold, then we should see a move to near yesterday VAH IMO.

EDIT: image attached.
I just got in on NY open. Long with initial stop at just below 4100, the spring just now did not hit that which is lucky. hoping for a test now on open price...

Target to 4150 & 4200.
  • #1,046
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:24am Mar 24, 2011 9:24am
Quoting kave
Yeah...nice chart... no story yet but when are us letting us beta test your scrabble set
LOL - some scrabble - and you guys got there first.......my comment to Bandung was going to be I do hope that's an MT 4 chart.....

My use of his indy on € so far - I trade off my annotated 5 min chart.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 24 eu 30m amt 1330.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 24 eu 5m 1500 cet.gif Size: 21 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,047
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:31am Mar 24, 2011 9:31am
Quoting kave
Yeah...nice chart... no story yet but when are u letting us beta test your scrabble set ?
haha...

wait till sun/monday buddy... I recreated it again... I forgot where i put the initial version...
...
  • #1,048
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:32am Mar 24, 2011 9:32am
BTW, I guess you guys noticed the 13:30 GMT hit of last Thursdays VPOC level in a high volume 15m hammer - or a 5 min semi tweezers - either way, a nice excuse to buy whilst waiting for € to hit my 4111 support area http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,049
  • Edited 10:13am Mar 24, 2011 9:34am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting kave
European open sell on GU provide a better risk reward ratio as compare to EU on expectancy of target to VPOC of 6160

With that say, the potential strategy to buy on reverse is compelling as price approaching unfair low at 6160.

A buy on 6160 VPOC with target all the way to 6365 could provided a huge potential. Initial risk could be set 6125.

With more room to travel up to VPOC of 6365 I am considering a trade
with a break above 6220, target to 6250 & 6350 initial risk at 6200.

Attachment
Price drop below VPOC & 6150 round number & spring back up on reaction to NY open, i enter a long on 6165.

Target to 6200 & 6250 or maybe to 6300. Depending on momentum...

*My alternate strategy was to enter on break of LVN of 6203 (or 6200 round down).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_70 Mar. 24 22.35.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #1,050
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:38am Mar 24, 2011 9:38am
Pleeeeease

Btw: did you see my Post regarding your indi:

Quoting Oxford
Hi Bandung,
Just realised that the POC of last Friday (2011.03.18, #5) has changed: yesterday we had 1.4068 and today it shows a POC of 1.4131. The only thing I changed was the LoopBack number, from 5 to 7. Do you know why is this so?

Thanks,
Ox


Quoting kave
Yeah...nice chart... no story yet but when are u letting us beta test your scrabble set ?
  • #1,051
  • Mar 24, 2011 9:54am Mar 24, 2011 9:54am
Quoting kave
I just got in on NY open. Long with initial stop at just below 4100, the spring just now did not hit that which is lucky. hoping for a test now on open price...

Target to 4150 & 4200.
1st exposure out on 4175 near my 4177 VPOC level (+54pips), remaining to 4217 maybe?..stop move up to 4150 for now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_71 Mar. 24 22.52.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #1,052
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:07am Mar 24, 2011 10:07am
Quoting kave
1st exposure out on 4175 near my 4177 VPOC level (+54pips), remaining to 4217 maybe?..stop move up to 4150 for now.

Attachment
Excellent! My tp at 4180 was hit. At airport now so didn't want to take a chance by letting it run without a proper stop in place.
Change is the only constant
  • #1,053
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:11am Mar 24, 2011 10:11am
Quoting tgwhbb
Excellent! My tp at 4180 was hit. At airport now so didn't want to take a chance by letting it run without a proper stop in place.
haha, i ought to try trading in an airport...nice pips.
  • #1,054
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:13am Mar 24, 2011 10:13am
Quoting kave
Price drop below VPOC & 6150 round number & spring back up on reaction to NY open, i enter a long on 6165.

Target to 6200 & 6250 or maybe to 6300. Depending on momentum...

*My alternate strategy was to enter on break of LVN of 6203 (or 6200 round down).

Attachment
Move price to BE for risk free trade now still with full exsosure & will let it ride out. Price stalling as compare to EU's momentum...
  • #1,055
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:19am Mar 24, 2011 10:19am
Quoting tgwhbb
Excellent! My tp at 4180 was hit. At airport now so didn't want to take a chance by letting it run without a proper stop in place.

Nice - I exited part based on the S1 level of 4181 and the remainder 5 pips below yesterdays high, immediatly I saw it stall after breaking the 00 level.....with todays DR now158 pips vs a 10ADR of 139 I'm happy to call it a day
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,056
  • Mar 24, 2011 10:47am Mar 24, 2011 10:47am
Quoting Islander
Nice - I exited part based on the S1 level of 4181 and the remainder 5 pips below yesterdays high, immediatly I saw it stall after breaking the 00 level.....with todays DR now158 pips vs a 10ADR of 139 I'm happy to call it a day
Excellent reasoning! My choice for 4180 was due to vpoc at 4177 and VAH around 4190 along with yesterdays NY DIBH at 4189.

So, thoughts on the next move??

A move to 4030 is still possible IMO. That is March's VAH, plus the breakout area. Today's low came close (4050), but was it close enough? Time will tell. But i think first is a revisit of this week's VAH around 4230. I'll have more faith in that if yesterday's POC at 4177 holds.

EDIT: keep in mind there is still a vpoc at 4240...makes for a nice target from 4177
Change is the only constant
  • #1,057
  • Mar 24, 2011 11:14am Mar 24, 2011 11:14am
Hey guys,

Just noticed we've past the 1000th post on this thread. Thanks to all who contribute here. there are some really good analysis using market profiles and auction market theory, and some really good indicators have been shared here as well!

Keep up the good work!
Change is the only constant
  • #1,058
  • Mar 24, 2011 11:17am Mar 24, 2011 11:17am
Here is a great profile indicator to create mergered profiles. It has IB ranges, profile splits based on time or volitility, many, many, uses! I found it on an Italian website. Here is the google tranlate link. The page explains so much more than I can. Here is the link http://translate.google.com/translat...%26prmd%3Divns
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 126 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 R-MarketProfile.mq4   28 KB | 1,577 downloads
File Type: mq4 R-Alarms_0.9.4.mq4   11 KB | 1,220 downloads
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,059
  • Mar 24, 2011 11:18am Mar 24, 2011 11:18am
Hi,
Today morning I saw this profile and thought, this day cannot end with such a profile top and that big gap/hole in the middle (see circle and square) - never seen a end of day profile like this. As we see now, today's profile has been shaped well - even if not a clear bell curve. It helped me a lot by deciding to go long at the turning candle on the bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15.jpg Size: 56 KB
  • #1,060
  • Mar 24, 2011 11:40am Mar 24, 2011 11:40am
Quoting tgwhbb
Hey guys,

Just noticed we've past the 1000th post on this thread. Thanks to all who contribute here. there are some really good analysis using market profiles and auction market theory, and some really good indicators have been shared here as well!

Keep up the good work!
Yeah tks to all...i notice most of us here are VSA practitioner too. It's all HG's fault...
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