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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #1,021
  • Edited 9:23pm Mar 23, 2011 8:58pm | Edited 9:23pm
Quoting Oxford
Just read that PDF. This idea is great but how to realize? I've once seen an demo of MarketDelta where they put small bell curves together. Is anyone here use this tool?

Ox
I think no one here use that idea at the moment, Robin's chart are mostly on weekly and Monthly. And she use daily to form the big monthly bell curve.

I'm still half way digesting the PDF article. She is the only few that use market profile on currency trading.

her website: http://www.robinmesch.com/

I wonder how much she charge to teach MP. Anyone interested?

So far we have seen many people teaching MP, but everyone seems like using and interpreting the bell curve with slight different idea.
  • #1,022
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:16pm Mar 23, 2011 11:16pm
Just did a quick glance of the PDF. I need to take more time and study it.

Her Hypothesis seems to be that the only valid profile shape is the Normal distribution or bell shaped profile. Therefore you should merge profiles day after day until the composite profile approximates a Normal distribution.

Most here are currently using profile tools that don't even have the ability to merge.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #1,023
  • Mar 23, 2011 11:22pm Mar 23, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Just did a quick glance of the PDF. I need to take more time and study it.

Her Hypothesis seems to be that the only valid profile shape is the Normal distribution or bell shaped profile. Therefore you should merge profiles day after day until the composite profile approximates a Normal distribution.

Most here are currently using profile tools that don't even have the ability to merge.
You can use Market_Statistic indicator to merge it, i think somebody already post it here or you can do a google search for it.

KG
  • #1,024
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:03am Mar 24, 2011 1:03am
The amount of days/intervals one should go back to collect data for the bell curve must be very crucial - if you go back far enough you'll always find a bell curve. Let's see if we can find more about this idea.

Quoting HiddenGap
Just did a quick glance of the PDF. I need to take more time and study it.

Her Hypothesis seems to be that the only valid profile shape is the Normal distribution or bell shaped profile. Therefore you should merge profiles day after day until the composite profile approximates a Normal distribution.

Most here are currently using profile tools that don't even have the ability to merge.
  • #1,025
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:12am Mar 24, 2011 1:12am
Thanks KG.

Quoting Kang_Gun
You can use Market_Statistic indicator to merge it, i think somebody already post it here or you can do a google search for it.

KG
  • #1,026
  • Edited 3:19am Mar 24, 2011 1:19am | Edited 3:19am
USDCHF:

With price centered on 9035 for last 2 days, Uchf have seen some buying interest below 9010 & yesterday ending with a secondary HVN of 9080.

Today's muted initiative selling bring price back to HVN 9080 level initial balance. market is finding value higher.

Long on European open. Target to 9150 & 9200. initial stop at 9065 (few pips below recent swing low)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,027
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:31am Mar 24, 2011 1:31am
Hi Bandung,
Just realised that the POC of last Friday (2011.03.18, #5) has changed: yesterday we had 1.4068 and today it shows a POC of 1.4131. The only thing I changed was the LoopBack number, from 5 to 7. Do you know why is this so?

Thanks,
Ox
  • #1,028
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:46am Mar 24, 2011 1:46am
pass 2days Market Profile suggest some form of responsive selling (profit taking) after price hit 6400, which bring the bear the down side move down to new HVN level of 6245. I expect the negative sentiment to follow through today. I remain cautious for this pair.

Initial balance is in line with HVN of 6245 after some selling tail inside value area.

Short on European open. Target to 6200 & 6150, initial stop at 6270.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_61 Mar. 24 14.33.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #1,029
  • Mar 24, 2011 1:58am Mar 24, 2011 1:58am
Intial session indicates initiative selling on EU. I expect the negative sentiment to continue..

Short on European open. target to 4050 & 4000. Initial stop at 4105.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_62 Mar. 24 14.54.gif Size: 38 KB
  • #1,030
  • Mar 24, 2011 2:47am Mar 24, 2011 2:47am
Quoting kave
pass 2days Market Profile suggest some form of responsive selling (profit taking) after price hit 6400, which bring the bear the down side move down to new HVN level of 6245. I expect the negative sentiment to follow through today. I remain cautious for this pair.

Initial balance is in line with HVN of 6245 after some selling tail inside value area.

Short on European open. Target to 6200 & 6150, initial stop at 6270.

Attachment
GU update: 1st target of 6200 was hit (25pips), reduce exposure & move stop to 6250.
  • #1,031
  • Edited 3:21am Mar 24, 2011 3:04am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting kave
Let me clarify what i meant by entry on European open, it means the trade entry is made from opening price of European market. right now is equivalent to London time 7pm.

tks @mel for the question

Correction. Is London Time @ 7am.

Apologies.
  • #1,032
  • Mar 24, 2011 3:19am Mar 24, 2011 3:19am
Quoting kave
USDCHF:

With price centered on 9035 for last 2 days, Uchf have seen some buying interest below 9010 & yesterday ending with a secondary HVN of 9080.

Today's muted initiative selling bring price back to HVN 9080 level initial balance. market is finding value higher.

Long on European open. Target to 9150 & 9200. initial stop at 9065 (few pips below recent swing low)

Attachment

With a close above yesterday's high, stop is raise to 9085
  • #1,033
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:00am Mar 24, 2011 4:00am
Quoting kave
Intial session indicates initiative selling on EU. I expect the negative sentiment to continue..

Short on European open. target to 4050 & 4000. Initial stop at 4105.

Attachment
Initial move down form european open have attracted buyers. Trade is close out with negative 32pips.
  • #1,034
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:05am Mar 24, 2011 4:05am
Quoting kave
GU update: 1st target of 6200 was hit (25pips), reduce exposure & move stop to 6250.
2 hours after the European open price seems to be stalling with potential buyers entering the market.

Close out remaining on break even. Net 25 pips gain on 1st exposure.
  • #1,035
  • Mar 24, 2011 4:08am Mar 24, 2011 4:08am
Quoting alexm
I think no one here use that idea at the moment, Robin's chart are mostly on weekly and Monthly. And she use daily to form the big monthly bell curve.

I'm still half way digesting the PDF article. She is the only few that use market profile on currency trading.

her website: http://www.robinmesch.com/

I wonder how much she charge to teach MP. Anyone interested?

So far we have seen many people teaching MP, but everyone seems like using and interpreting the bell curve with slight different idea.

Hi Alexm,

I have send an email to her 3 weeks ago, asking about her teaching program. She mailed back, saying that she does not take new clients for now....

Mel
  • #1,036
  • Edited 4:47am Mar 24, 2011 4:36am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting kave
2 hours after the European open price seems to be stalling with potential buyers entering the market.

Close out remaining on break even. Net 25 pips gain on 1st exposure.
Good news is i made 25 pips net, bad news is it hit my 2nd target of 6150... I suppose is good news nonetheless...since is a good call.
  • #1,037
  • Edited 6:02am Mar 24, 2011 4:41am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting kave
USDCHF:

With price centered on 9035 for last 2 days, Uchf have seen some buying interest below 9010 & yesterday ending with a secondary HVN of 9080.

Today's muted initiative selling bring price back to HVN 9080 level initial balance. market is finding value higher.

Long on European open. Target to 9150 & 9200. initial stop at 9065 (few pips below recent swing low)


Attachment
Uchf have been stalling since European open for the last 2.5 hours, after initial gain; I reduce exposure with small gain (10pips) & tighten stop to 9100 (close to BE) for remaining.

update: stop out for remaining with a small 5pips net gain.
  • #1,038
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:26am Mar 24, 2011 7:26am
A better strategy for EU for European session would have been to buy on VPOC of 4070. Stop at 4050 (nearest 50 pip round number) & target to 4100 & 4150 With buyers coming in below 4070. the momentum was swift for this pair. Hitting above mention target just.

Of cause there is a VPOC of 4177 yet to be hit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,039
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:41am Mar 24, 2011 7:41am
European open sell on GU provide a better risk reward ratio as compare to EU on expectancy of target to VPOC of 6160

With that say, the potential strategy to buy on reverse is compelling as price approaching unfair low at 6160.

A buy on 6160 VPOC with target all the way to 6365 could provided a huge potential. Initial risk could be set 6125.

With more room to travel up to VPOC of 6365 I am considering a trade
with a break above 6220, target to 6250 & 6350 initial risk at 6200.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_68 Mar. 24 20.28.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #1,040
  • Mar 24, 2011 7:46am Mar 24, 2011 7:46am
Quoting HiddenGap
Just did a quick glance of the PDF. I need to take more time and study it.

Her Hypothesis seems to be that the only valid profile shape is the Normal distribution or bell shaped profile. Therefore you should merge profiles day after day until the composite profile approximates a Normal distribution.

Most here are currently using profile tools that don't even have the ability to merge.
I read through it, and I don't think that she's saying other distributions are invalid. She says that "Market consensus looks like a completed bell curve" and goes on to outline a trading strategy that involves range trading "pockets of low usage" areas as well as trend trading once "consensus" is reached (completed bell curve).

When looking at monthly and weekly profiles, maybe this kind of outlook could help us anticipate direction by identifying consensus or if we're filling in pockets.
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