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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #24,021
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:57am Mar 18, 2011 9:57am
I maybe make 8 trades a month, sometimes more, some less. As I get more experience I imagine that will increase. I'm trying to take trades that I'm very sure of and stay away from ones that I am not. I'm coming up on 4 yrs of doing this and finally becoming more consistant. I'm always learning and will continue to do so.
Raymond
  • #24,022
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:00am Mar 18, 2011 10:00am
Thanks
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #24,023
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:55pm Mar 18, 2011 9:55pm
Well a positive trade, but could have been a lot better. I'm still making mistakes/learning after about 4 yrs of doing this. The 1st chart is the daily. I always start with the daily. It shows a general uptrend with some consolidation over the last 8-10 days. Based on that I'm thinking of looking for primary long trades. The arrow shows a candle that broke above previous price resistance (yellow horizontal line) and the trendline. The second chart shows the 4hr. The 1st thing to notice is the strong 4 hr candle with the arrow just above it. It was a strong bullish engulfing candle that closed above the red resistance line. Now on to my mistake. The red fib (not part of this system, but this is where I get my price targets) is from the previous up move. Price pulled back to approx the 32% retracement (mine are backwards b/c of my extensions). I count 3-4 fibs on to get my price targets, see the white #'s on the right. I chose my price targets from the 1 hr chart which is the next chart. Now on to the 1 hr chart. I got in a little after the close of the candle below the arrow. I wanted to get a better price than I did, but I had to go to sleep. I set my price target based on the 1 hr - MISTAKE. That cost me a bunch of pips. 40 pips is better than nothing, but still very upsetting. I left 90 pips on the table, by not using the 4hr fib. Live and learn I suppose.
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  • #24,024
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:51pm Mar 22, 2011 7:51pm
Looking at GBP for possible trade...pull back to the break out level and then a pull away or maybe just a nice bullish pattern/candle(s) or TC. I did not take the break out b/c of the great distance b/t price and the MA's
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  • #24,025
  • Mar 23, 2011 2:44am Mar 23, 2011 2:44am
Quoting Morelands
Looking at GBP for possible trade...pull back to the break out level and then a pull away or maybe just a nice bullish pattern/candle(s) or TC. I did not take the break out b/c of the great distance b/t price and the MA's
Hello Raymond

I am interested in following the strategy as it now suits my style of trading
I will be visiting this thread every day
I started to read it , but to be honest after post 1 , it is really a painful process of reading , so many page and posts most of which our commenting on day to day trade analysis
I obvioulsy want to get the the meat of the strategy and follow on a day to day basis thereon
What do you recommend I look at to start with ? Just all the links on post 1 is enough and pdf, mp3 or is there anything else hidden in the thread which is too valuable not to miss
  • #24,026
  • Mar 23, 2011 5:25pm Mar 23, 2011 5:25pm
Hi Everybody,

I was reading this thread and it looks very interesting. But I'm having a tough time entering the Trade.

I decided that i would only look for confirmed Entry Signals like the RT and RB..
in this ScreenShot below, it looked like a RT and I Got into the trade,
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300919032


it eventually truned out to be a CT (CRAPTOP)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300919053

Is there any way of knowing ? And the worst part is waiting for another 4 Hours to eventually understand that you got screwed
Attached Images
  • #24,027
  • Mar 23, 2011 7:56pm Mar 23, 2011 7:56pm
Quoting peterporter
Hello Raymond

I am interested in following the strategy as it now suits my style of trading
I will be visiting this thread every day
I started to read it , but to be honest after post 1 , it is really a painful process of reading , so many page and posts most of which our commenting on day to day trade analysis
I obvioulsy want to get the the meat of the strategy and follow on a day to day basis thereon
What do you recommend I look at to start with ? Just all the links on post 1 is enough and pdf, mp3 or is there anything else hidden in the...
.

I would not expect you to read the entire thead, but look at the 1st page with all the pd'sf and that would be a good start. A lot of people stopped taking the RT and RB do to inconsistant results. However, I find that they can be profitable IF you are in a consolidating market. If you are in a market making consistantly higher highs/higher low (for instance) resist the urge of taking the RT and only take TC's (trend continuations) If you want a video on what is a trending market vs consolidating market go to Youtube and type in Sion Smith and look for lesson 4. Hope this helps
Raymond
  • #24,028
  • Mar 23, 2011 8:03pm Mar 23, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting jacksonphili
Hi Everybody,

I was reading this thread and it looks very interesting. But I'm having a tough time entering the Trade.

I decided that i would only look for confirmed Entry Signals like the RT and RB..
in this ScreenShot below, it looked like a RT and I Got into the trade,
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300919032


it eventually truned out to be a CT (CRAPTOP)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1300919053

Is there any way of knowing ? And...
See my previous post regarding RT and RB. If you think 4 hrs is too long this may not be the method for you. If you have the time and want quicker trades there of plenty of methods that will get you in and out faster. Just be aware the shorter the time frame the more inconsistant your trading will be. Some people like it that way and that is fine as long as it work for them.
Raymond
  • #24,029
  • Mar 23, 2011 9:52pm Mar 23, 2011 9:52pm
Hi everyone
This is my first post in this thread, but i`m following it since a long time ago.
One thing that i`ve noticed is that the daily madc configuration presented by phillip in his weekly anticipation presented the same tradeable patterns than those formed in the 4 hour configuration

I attach a possible entry using the daily chart

Bernardo.
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  • #24,030
  • Mar 25, 2011 8:57am Mar 25, 2011 8:57am
I took a trade last night for a loss. My 1st loss in quite some time. The 1st chart is the daily, as usual, showing we are in a trending market and we should be looking for long positions. The blue rectangle shows a tweezer bottom. The only part I did not like was the fact that the bullish candle did not close above the bearish candle, but it was not by much. The second chart shows the TC on the 4hr. I liked the fact that price closed above the 8 and 21 MA a few candles before I took the trade.
As for why it did not work out, which is a little beyond the scope of this thread, we may be in an abc correction and I entered at the end of the b wave. If we are in a correction price should go down to the 89 MA at 1.4028
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  • #24,031
  • Mar 25, 2011 9:04am Mar 25, 2011 9:04am
Quoting Morelands
I took a trade last night for a loss.
Thanks for still posting it. It's sometimes quite helpful to see not only the success stories.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #24,032
  • Mar 27, 2011 6:15pm Mar 27, 2011 6:15pm
It was an abc correction. Live and learn
  • #24,033
  • Mar 28, 2011 10:28am Mar 28, 2011 10:28am
This is a trade that i´ve just take. The price is in the 89 sma and in the daily in the 21 ema. The Macd formed a RB, so i get in.

Any comments?

Bernardo
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  • #24,034
  • Mar 28, 2011 11:17am Mar 28, 2011 11:17am
have been saw the tread for several months,try this strategy also for the time,feel somethings to say.

as the trade above,the price is moving down to 89SMA,get the support,pull back to the 21ema,but get a resist,so i feel that maybe end of the uptrend,though macd show RB,it already get to the 21ema, so ,waiting maybe the best way, see what would happen.
  • #24,035
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:23pm Mar 28, 2011 4:23pm
Quoting balba77
This is a trade that i´ve just take. The price is in the 89 sma and in the daily in the 21 ema. The Macd formed a RB, so i get in.

Any comments?

Bernardo
I would not have taken that trade. I don't follow Phillip's rules as much as others so correct me if I'm wrong. I believe price is suppose to find support off the 89 and return to the 21. Since it did not close above the 21, it might return to the 89.
However, here is my assessment as to what is going on and you can do with it what you will. We are currently in a bearish wedge indicated by the red trendlines. I believe at some point in time price will break the supporting trendline. After that 2 situations may arise. 1) Price will return to the trendline and then continue south or 2) price will consolidate (blue rectangle) and then look for some sort of candle formation/TC and price will continue south
  • #24,036
  • Mar 28, 2011 4:25pm Mar 28, 2011 4:25pm
Here's the chart
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  • #24,037
  • Mar 28, 2011 10:20pm Mar 28, 2011 10:20pm
i still use the group of 5,13,1, as it show wrong signal sometime, i want to know you guys, have any better group,or it just the same ,not very important
  • #24,038
  • Mar 29, 2011 6:20am Mar 29, 2011 6:20am
Quoting benjamiin000
i still use the group of 5,13,1, as it show wrong signal sometime, i want to know you guys, have any better group,or it just the same ,not very important
I'm using 5,13,1. Phillip did change to slower #'s at some point b/c of an increase in volitity. As for giving some bad signal, there is no indicator that is 100%. Additionally, I pay attention to the price action much more so than the indicator. I use the MACD as a confirmation only. I never just use it to decide to take a trade. Hope this helps
Raymond
  • #24,039
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:08am Mar 29, 2011 7:08am
Quoting balba77
This is a trade that i´ve just take. The price is in the 89 sma and in the daily in the 21 ema. The Macd formed a RB, so i get in.

Any comments?

Bernardo
This trade finally went wrong. I didn´t noticed the close of the candle below the 21 EMA, as Raymond and benjamin000 did.
I supossed that today i´m a little more poor but wiser than yesterday.

Thankx for the comments, i really appreciate them.
Bernardo.

PD: English is not my native language, so, please forgive me if i make some spelling or grammar mistakes
  • #24,040
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:13am Mar 29, 2011 7:13am
Quoting Morelands
I'm using 5,13,1. Phillip did change to slower #'s at some point b/c of an increase in volitity. As for giving some bad signal, there is no indicator that is 100%. Additionally, I pay attention to the price action much more so than the indicator. I use the MACD as a confirmation only. I never just use it to decide to take a trade. Hope this helps
Raymond
thanks raymond,that is give me more confience as a new trader
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