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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #981
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:18am Mar 22, 2011 5:18am
Quoting Oxford
Kave, did you take today's VAL for your stop?

Ox
Initially it was the VAH of yesterday then, i move it slightly to the recent swing low point of today ard 4215

So far i have yet to base any of my levels on development area ..
  • #982
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:33am Mar 22, 2011 5:33am
Let me clarify what i meant by entry on European open, it means the trade entry is made from opening price of European market. right now is equivalent to London time 7pm.

tks @mel for the question
  • #983
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:37am Mar 22, 2011 5:37am
Today's VAL hold, great to see! As we did not go far away from today's VAH, I first had a short bias, but now it looks different. Let's see.

Quoting kave
Initially it was the VAH of yesterday then, i move it slightly to the recent swing low point of today ard 4215

So far i have yet to base any of my levels on development area ..
  • #984
  • Edited 7:14am Mar 22, 2011 7:00am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting kave
GU; 1st target reach at 6350, reduce exposure & raise stop above BE to 6315

EU slight positive, reduce exposure to 4215.
GU tested 2nd target of 6400 again, close out my position with 93pips..(6450 seems likely though)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_45 Mar. 22 20.12.gif Size: 25 KB



EU move stops up to 4220..looks like a basic VSA spring test now. Slight positive.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_44 Mar. 22 20.00.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #985
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:02am Mar 22, 2011 9:02am
well done!!
Quoting kave
GU tested 2nd target of 6400 again, close out my position with 93pips..(6450 seems likely though)
Attachment


EU move stops up to 4220..looks like a basic VSA spring test now. Slight positive.
Attachment
  • #986
  • Edited 10:28am Mar 22, 2011 9:46am | Edited 10:28am
Quoting kave
GU tested 2nd target of 6400 again, close out my position with 93pips..(6450 seems likely though)
Attachment


EU move stops up to 4220..looks like a basic VSA spring test now. Slight positive.
Attachment
nice GU trade!

yesterday's virgin POC at 4168 was almost tested. hoping for a further shakeout down to catch my buy limit at 4170 which is also near yesterday's VAL. price couls also fall to 4150 which is yesterday's VAL since it has been accepted back into value on the 30M.

EDIT: given UHV vol near DIBL, i adjusted my buy limit higher to 4182. Just pulled in. may need to give this one some room to breath, but i am thinking 2 options form here:

1. if price hangs around this level, then TP set to today's developing POC around 4240, since price filling LVN between 4240 and 4179.

2. if price moves up sooner and does not build too much value here, will keep for higher TP.

at the moment #2 seems more likely since current profile is P shaped - short covering - indicating higher prices.

Sorry, can't screen shot right now, will do so later.
Change is the only constant
  • #987
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:25am Mar 22, 2011 10:25am
Quoting kave
GU tested 2nd target of 6400 again, close out my position with 93pips..(6450 seems likely though)
Attachment


EU move stops up to 4220..looks like a basic VSA spring test now. Slight positive.
Attachment
Close out with -11 pips l
  • #988
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:31am Mar 22, 2011 10:31am
@tgwhbb

yesterday's virgin POC at 4168 was almost tested. hoping for a further shakeout down to catch my buy limit at 4170 which is also near yesterday's VAL. price couls also fall to 4150 which is yesterday's VAL since it has been accepted back into value on the 30M.[/quote


It seems to be responsive selling today back down to VA now & tested of POC @ 4175..

It seems likely for price to test the VAL too.

Potential here is, if the VPOC of 4070 were to play out then I suspect a initiative sellers tomorrow could bring price down to VPOC, Since price now is below DVAL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_47 Mar. 22 23.20.gif Size: 35 KB



Edit (add): Another interesting perspective on the VSA front, trigger level of 4163.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_49 Mar. 22 23.34.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #989
  • Mar 22, 2011 1:36pm Mar 22, 2011 1:36pm
Quoting kave
It seems to be responsive selling today back down to VA now & tested of POC @ 4175..

It seems likely for price to test the VAL too.

Potential here is, if the VPOC of 4070 were to play out then I suspect a initiative sellers tomorrow could bring price down to VPOC, Since price now is below DVAL.
Given the lack of initiative selling today outside the IB extensions, i'm not convinced yesterday's naked POC will be touched just yet. We got a nice shakeout to 4177, the NY DIBL, which was heavily bought. this level is a close test to yesterday's wide range high vol bar as well, where buyers stepped in also. IMO it was a test of the sellers that were absorbed yesterday at this level.

yesterday's VAH was rejected as well, therefore the virgin POC may remain virgin until sellers are found higher up to drive the price back down...

But it doesn't look like price is being accepted back into today's VA either, so direction not really clear ATM, therefore sticking with the trend and SL set to BE+1 just in case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M30 Mar 22.png Size: 31 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #990
  • Mar 22, 2011 4:30pm Mar 22, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting tgwhbb
But it doesn't look like price is being accepted back into today's VA either, so direction not really clear ATM, therefore sticking with the trend and SL set to BE+1 just in case.

SL hit. Per this post, EU starting to look bearish to me in the short term. Today's profile is no longer looking like a P shape but rather a non-trend profile.

watching PA in asia, weakness around 4240 area and i'm short to at least this week's VAL around 4160, and possibly down to last week's VAH in the 4015 area. That's a long way though, one step at a time...
Change is the only constant
  • #991
  • Mar 22, 2011 5:21pm Mar 22, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting tgwhbb
SL hit. Per this post, EU starting to look bearish to me in the short term. Today's profile is no longer looking like a P shape but rather a non-trend profile....
Looks like we're creating a big range the last two days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trend.png Size: 143 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #992
  • Mar 22, 2011 7:07pm Mar 22, 2011 7:07pm
Hey guys

Took 4 entries today, the first two were no supply's at the 15m trigger for a responsive buy, moved my stop to break even as we got to today's developing value area low, stopped on those 2 for +0. Cautious with longs here, as we're at a major daily supply level that's just below a major weekly supply level.

I took two entries off of the 30m EU which is attached here, they're no demands. I entered these NDs not following climactic volume, so much as a rejection of the value area in combination with daily supply. Moving stops to break even as we take the virginity of yesterday's point of control.

The moving average on the (M30) chart is 24, and it doesn't contribute anything but the general 12 hour direction. It didn't influence my trades today. I do like to use 15m hull though to help me from trying to pick bottoms.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #993
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:51pm Mar 22, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting kave
@tgwhbb


Edit (add): Another interesting perspective on the VSA front, trigger level of 4163.
Attachment
Now on trigger level. Note that 4150 is the round number magnet here...

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  • #994
  • Mar 22, 2011 8:56pm Mar 22, 2011 8:56pm
Quoting Kang_Gun
Target POC 1.6251

KG

PS: Jessss... just finish posting it and the target already hit

hi kang
in post #701
do you used real balance with ray
am i correct??
i am proud to be KGers..!!!
  • #995
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:38pm Mar 22, 2011 9:38pm
Not AMT but I wanted to clarify the supply levels I was talking about. Blue is monthly, yellow is weekly and the tan box is the daily supply.
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  • #996
  • Mar 22, 2011 11:35pm Mar 22, 2011 11:35pm
I found this article by Robin Mesch.

http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/pdfs/robinmesch-082510.pdf

Hope it help us to understand market profile better and use it wiser.

May the Force be with you.
  • #997
  • Mar 23, 2011 12:00am Mar 23, 2011 12:00am
Quoting alexm
I found this article by Robin Mesch.

http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/pdfs/robinmesch-082510.pdf

Hope it help us to understand market profile better and use it wiser.

May the Force be with you.
Great stuff bro thanks
  • #998
  • Mar 23, 2011 2:06am Mar 23, 2011 2:06am
Quoting alexm
I found this article by Robin Mesch.

http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/pdfs/robinmesch-082510.pdf

Hope it help us to understand market profile better and use it wiser.

May the Force be with you.
Thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #999
  • Edited 3:05am Mar 23, 2011 2:50am | Edited 3:05am
Eu seems be stalling after some initiative selling. With yesterday's rejection of 4250, price then makes a ABC like correction..anyway strengths is building up now on 4150 as we speak.

Strategy for me will be to trade a break of 4220 or 4130. (Round off from 4217 & 4315 as shown in my chart.

Target to 4300 for long & 4050 (just below VPOC) for short. Initial Risk is 45 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_52 Mar. 23 15.43.gif Size: 32 KB


FYI trigger line of 4163 tested again...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_53 Mar. 23 16.04.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #1,000
  • Edited 4:07am Mar 23, 2011 3:19am | Edited 4:07am
GU seems to be holding well with a normal balance initial profile that falls as an inside day. I am cautiously bullish for this pair for now...

Trade a break above 6400 or below 6330 (LVN). Target to long to 6450 & 6500. Shot target to 6250 & 6200.

Initial risk to trade is 50pips..

Edit: errata LVN is 6330 not 6300.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_54 Mar. 23 16.18.gif Size: 37 KB
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