Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Need Help to Make Good Win Ratio System 1 reply

I lose 40 pips and win 6 to 10 pips... 17 replies

How to get 1-5 pips with 100% win ratio? 89 replies

Win/Loss Ratio and R/R Ratio Link? 11 replies

Win 2 trades out of 10 and win 180 pips 8 replies

Attachments: Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day
Exit Attachments

Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day

  • #41
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:48pm Mar 19, 2011 2:48pm
Quoting Feliks
Actually I prefer to look the price. But if your method is profitable, it would great to see your statement))))
I am a dumb ass and my statement shows nothing but losses.
Good Luck.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #42
  • Mar 19, 2011 3:17pm Mar 19, 2011 3:17pm
The last genius with a 100% system was certain he could win 1 pip per trade with a 20 pip SL

This kind of posting seems to appear every few months and always stays in the Rookie Discussion forum. That should tell you a lot.
  • #43
  • Mar 19, 2011 4:55pm Mar 19, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting Forexia
That has to do with your risk or money management policy, nothing to do with designing a strategy that earns you 10 pips per trade with certain % of probability.
I'm afraid I must disagree. Return is impossible without some kind of risk; the two are inextricably linked. Understanding the relationships that exist between return and risk is a prerequisite to becoming a successful trader.

In attempting to make your 10 pips per trade, what will you do if the market moves unfavorably? If you don't have a loss exit strategy, there's the possibility that price might move several hundred pips against you, before it returns to +10. Or it might never reach +10 during that day. You need to manage that downside, as much as you do any upside.

The key is not pips made, nor is it win probability%. It is risk adjusted return, or profit factor, which I discussed in an earlier post (#31). Quoting return, or even probability of return, without reference to risk, is effectively meaningless.

I will end by asking a question:
Trader 'A' averages +5% return per month.
Trader 'B' averages +10% return per month.
Which one is the more skilled/successful trader?
  • #44
  • Mar 19, 2011 5:55pm Mar 19, 2011 5:55pm
Quoting Feliks
Actually I prefer to look the price. But if your method is profitable, it would great to see your statement))))
*!$#@, it's about the skill. Rank your skill FIRST: Discipline to see if you are consistent in performing your skill, whether or not you've bucks on it.
Lots of people do highly skilled jobs without pay. They get the job done, is all that counts.
If your motivation is money without something to show for it, then what do you expect?
  • #45
  • Mar 19, 2011 6:21pm Mar 19, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting Feliks
I thought about you can do it by this way also... I am about 10 pips per day..
50 pips for a week or 200 pips for a month..
But I think 50 pips a week sounds so easy. One order per week, get 50 pips thats all

hi feliks,

no one asked you these questions so i'm asking you this.

first, how do you determine your entry with your ea??

second, which TF do you execute this ea on?? probabilities are higher for you to get 10 pips on larger TF. it's not impossible but it's hard!! you're not the first one with this idea!!

third, if it is easy, then your acct in 2004 wouldn't have blown up!!! why don't you just aim for 1 pip?? isn't getting 1 pip easier!! it's whether you have the discipline to stick to it.

market conditions have changed abit in the last few months. trend seems to be heading in one direction. but suddenly shoot the other way by 40 or 50 pips. due to some big mouth or a report from some hedge funds. it's been more volatile with the japanese crisis now.

can your EA adapt?? thanks
  • #46
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:34pm Mar 19, 2011 9:34pm
Quoting hanover
I'm afraid I must disagree. Return is impossible without some kind of risk; the two are inextricably linked. Understanding the relationships that exist between return and risk is a prerequisite to becoming a successful trader.

In attempting to make your 10 pips per trade, what will you do if the market moves unfavorably? If you don't have a loss exit strategy, there's the possibility that price might move several hundred pips against you, before it returns to +10. Or it might never reach +10 during that day. You need to manage that downside, as...
Yes but these returns do not specify amount of pips being made. How much you are willing to risk before making 10 pips has to do with your money or risk management policy. It's a totally different concept. You need to set that policy regardless whether you want to make 10 pips or 20 pips or 1000 pips. What this thread is discussing is whether it's possible to make 10 pips 100% of the time and how. That has to do with trading strategies. If that strategy is only successfuly, say, 95% of the time of being able to generate 10 pips of profit, for that 5% of the time, you still need to determine how much you are willing to lose and that's your money management policy.

That's how I see it.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #47
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:17pm Mar 19, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting Forexia
How much you are willing to risk before making 10 pips has to do with your money or risk management policy. It's a totally different concept.
........
What this thread is discussing is whether it's possible to make 10 pips 100% of the time and how.
Just for starters, your probability of making 10 pips depends a great deal on where you set your stoploss. For example, if Mr A has TP=10 and SL=10 (sets his SL 10 pips from entry), and Mr B has TP=10 and SL=20 then (assuming everything else is equal, and ignoring costs), Mr B's win probability will be approximately double Mr A's, even though both are aiming for 10 pips profit. Hence I don't see how it makes any sense to talk about the probability of making 10 pips, without factoring in the risk.

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is that it's impossible to devise a system that will make 10 pips 100% of the time.

Anyway, no matter. Let's simply agree to differ.
  • #48
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:21pm Mar 20, 2011 2:21pm
Quoting hanover
Just for starters, your probability of making 10 pips depends a great deal on where you set your stoploss. For example, if Mr A has TP=10 and SL=10 (sets his SL 10 pips from entry), and Mr B has TP=10 and SL=20 then (assuming everything else is equal, and ignoring costs), Mr B's win probability will be approximately double Mr A's, even though both are aiming for 10 pips profit. Hence I don't see how it makes any sense to talk about the probability of making 10 pips, without factoring in the risk.

One thing we can say with absolute certainty is...
Hanover, we just have different definition of what's "probability of win". I define it as the probability of earning a profit each time when I put in a trade. You define it as the profitability in the long run. Those are two different concepts and we are talking about the former here. How can I achieve as close as 100% win ratio which is really "probability of win" for just 10 pips each trade. In another words, if I enter 100 trades, what kind of trading strategy should I have to allow me to just make 10 pips 100% or as close as to 100% of the time. Where I set the SL is money management; it should be considered seperately from trading strategies which is what we are discussing here.

Like I said before, risk is NOT amount of loss; it's the probability of loss. If your trading strategy has a low probability of loss, as long as you set the SL at a reasonable amount of pips, you will still profit in the long run. But if your strategy has a high probability of loss, regardless how low you set your SL at, eventually it will bleed you dry and you end up closing your account and this is why majority of the new traders fail. It's because they don't understand the concept of risk. They think as long as they stop out their trades at small amount of loss, they can eventually make money. They will only "eventually" make money if their trading strategy change to a one that has higher probability of win.

Examples: Person A has a SL = 20 pips but has trading strategy that generates a "win probability" of 80%

Person B has a SL = 10 pips but has trading strategy that generates a "win probability" of 40%

If both of them funded their account with $1,000, at the end of 10 trades $1 each:

Person A's Loss: 0.2 * 1,000 * 0.0020 * 10 = $4

Person B's Loss: 0.6 * 1,000 * 0.0010 *10 = $6

As you can see, with everything else equal, even though Person B's SL is tighter than Person A's by half but because his/her trading strategy also only has 1/2 of Person A's winning probability, Person A still came out on top even though he/she's sustaining higher losses because Person A is sustaining them at half of the frequency as Person B. If Person B has just improved his winning probability to 50%, he/she would've reduced the loss by 17%.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #49
  • Mar 20, 2011 6:09pm Mar 20, 2011 6:09pm
Quoting Forexia
Hanover, we just have different definition of what's "probability of win"........
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe our definitions of "win probability" are the same. I'm talking about win% or win rate.

What I'm saying is that the locations of the SL and TP have a direct bearing on this win probability, given the same trading (entry) strategy.

For example, if I have TP=10 and SL=1,000 I will achieve a very high win% because the probability of price moving just 10 pips favorably is much more likely to occur, before it moves 1,000 pips unfavorably. This might attain a win rate (or "win probability") of > 90%, but then when that one 1,000 pip loser comes along, it will wipe out all of all of the prior wins, and then some. That's why I've been saying that win% (or "win probability") is meaningless without also taking the exit/risk into account.

Whereas if I have TP=10 and SL=1 then the win rate will be very low, because price has to move only 1 pip unfavorably, and I get stopped out. But my avg win size will be 10 times my avg loss size (if we ignore costs).

IMO your example is unrealistic, because win% and R:R tend to operate in approximate inverse proportion to each other (high win% = low R:R, and vice versa). Hence it would take an impossibly massive disparity in the quality of the entry systems for one with SL=10 to generate double the win rate of the one with SL=20. If the SL and TP are equally distant from entry (SL=TP, or 1:1 RR, after costs), then it's extremely rare to find any TA-based entry strategy that will deliver a win rate of > 60%, if it is traded over several thousand trades, and many years of changing markets. The good news is that anything above 50%, when combined with some proficient trade management (e.g. trailing a SL) is enough to get you into the winner's circle.

The only way of attaining a win probability of > 90% is to skew the TP/SL like I described, or artificially by using MM, e.g. hedging, progressive staking like Martingale, etc. After which one ignores the relationship between return and risk at one's peril.

Speaking generally, many newcomers apparently believe that it's possible to unearth a combo of indys and analysis that nobody else has discovered, that will deliver a superior entry system with a significantly high "win probability". They fail to realize that there is an upper limit to the efficacy of ANY system, that is caused by the extent of randomness in price movement. All TA-based systems are based on price, and price movement is ultimately determined by the sentiment and agenda of a number of heavyweight participants, of which TA knows nothing about. That has a big effect on equalizing the efficacy of all technical trading systems.

A win rate of 90% at 1:1 R:R, at 1 trade per day, would easily be enough to make several million % return per year. Consider what the world's top traders might aim to make, and then decide for yourself whether threads like this are realistic enough to be of any real value.
  • #50
  • Mar 20, 2011 9:45pm Mar 20, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting Forexia
Like I said before, risk is NOT amount of loss; it's the probability of loss. If your trading strategy has a low probability of loss, as long as you set the SL at a reasonable amount of pips, you will still profit in the long run. But if your strategy has a high probability of loss, regardless how low you set your SL at, eventually it will bleed you dry and you end up closing your account and this is why majority of the new traders fail.
I do not agree on this statement. A trading strategy with high probability of loss does not mean that it will bleed you dry as long as you have a positive profit factor. Yes you may be bleed for most of the time and it gives you a bad feeling, but you will not blow up if you win big. It is misleading to say that a system with low losing probability is better than a system with high losing probability because you need to know the 4 elements that constructs the profit factor in order to evaluate the system profitability. It is futile to judge a system by losing probability and magnitude of loss only.

Yes I agree that a system with >90% winning probability is possible but 99.999999% of them is vulnerable to black swan. This kind of system does not bleed everyday and give you a good feeling for being profitable almost everyday. However when black swan strikes, they usually blow up their account.

Like hanover mentioned, it is risk adjusted return that counts. If anyone manage to find a single system with long term profit factor >3, congratulation, you found a holy grail!
  • #51
  • Mar 20, 2011 10:04pm Mar 20, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting Chicky
4. Look at the sky through your window, if Mercury collides with Jupiter execute your short order.
You forgot 4a. Buy a telescope.
  • #52
  • Mar 21, 2011 12:49am Mar 21, 2011 12:49am
Quoting winningfx
hi feliks,

no one asked you these questions so i'm asking you this.

first, how do you determine your entry with your ea??
If you ask about 10Pips10Ema, the rule written below that post. I just want to see rules that i can include the EA and backtest, then show the results..
Quote
second, which TF do you execute this ea on?? probabilities are higher for you to get 10 pips on larger TF. it's not impossible but it's hard!! you're not the first one with this idea!!
I used that on on M5 or M15. But if you want to gain 50 pips per week and 200 per month i'd look to H4, Daily and Weekly.

Quote
third, if it is easy, then your acct in 2004 wouldn't have blown up!!! why don't you just aim for 1 pip?? isn't getting 1 pip easier!! it's whether you have the discipline to stick to it.
Broker hasn't allow for 1 pip. minimum pip distance 5 pips, so i set the minimum. The result differ with other brokers by the way...

Quote
market conditions have changed abit in the last few months. trend seems to be heading in one direction. but suddenly shoot the other way by 40 or 50 pips. due to some big mouth or a report from some hedge funds. it's been more volatile with the japanese crisis now.
can your EA adapt?? thanks
If you will use 50 pips..or 200 pips.. Yes you will get risk. But if you find a better way to gain 1 pips per order (10 order) or another equal, i can help you with coding..
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #53
  • Edited Mar 22, 2011 10:40am Mar 21, 2011 11:50am | Edited Mar 22, 2011 10:40am
What we are trying to figure out here is how to achieve win probability of 100% or as close as possible to it to just make 10 pips BEFORE you get stopped out obviously. Once you are stopped out, you are OUT. Why would you still care about that statistic?

And the SL at 1000 pips is NOT what I call a reasonable SL. That is actually not only not realistic but impractical. Nobody in the trading arena set SL this high given the price volatility that we see today in whatever timeframe; this is equivalent of not setting SL at all and that is not the assumption that we are working with here.

And I do believe that with a trading strategy that has high-probability loss does bleed you dry eventually no matter how low you set your SL at. Because for all of those times that you are losing, if your SL is low, then you are getting stopped all the time. Your losses add up. And when you do hit a win before your SL, you won't even know what's the probability of that win overcoming your stream of losses. And because of your high probability of losses, you will eventually start to erode away your win with your losses until you are able to make your win again of unknown amount. So you might not lose everything right away, eventually you will "bleed dry".
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #54
  • Mar 21, 2011 5:46pm Mar 21, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Feliks
If you ask about 10Pips10Ema, the rule written below that post. I just want to see rules that i can include the EA and backtest, then show the results..

I used that on on M5 or M15. But if you want to gain 50 pips per week and 200 per month i'd look to H4, Daily and Weekly.


Broker hasn't allow for 1 pip. minimum pip distance 5 pips, so i set the minimum. The result differ with other brokers by the way...


If you will use 50 pips..or 200 pips.. Yes you will get risk. But if you find a better way to gain 1 pips per order (10 order) or another...
hi feliks,

entry: so your EA enters a trade when price closes above or below the ema? or when price bounces off the ema? what is your stoploss?

if the aboves are the case, then you will get more losses than you imagine. due to whipsaw and fakeouts. your ea is a robot that cannot see whether prices are in a range. it also does not know when news is coming out and stay out from entering trades. it also cannot see whether trend might be changing direction. it might enter a trade according to entry rules. but the move maybe losing momentum and reverse. handing you another loss.

open a chart and put the 10ema on. see it with your own eye and see whether your entry rules will work. how many winner can you see versus how many losses can you get!! then you'll get the idea!!

next is finding a broker where your EA can work and prosper. some traders got kicked out by their brokers. due to being profitable whether by skills or robots.

i recommend you lower your profit targets. because it's easier to get small pips. also to cut exposure to the market. especially if the markets are too volatile to trade. A ROBOT DOES NOT KNOW WHEN TO STAY OUT OF THE MARKETS!! unless you can programm them to do so.

i'm not trying to pour cold water on your efforts. but many people have written and tried EAs. they found out the cold hard truths that EAs don't work. because EAs cannot adapt to the MARKET and for the reasons i've listed. that why you have more negative remarks than good ones in this thread.

but there are traders that possess EAs that work. but they're not sharing or telling anyone about it. this should serve as an inspiration for you. so just keep on developing it and make it consistently profitable and you'll have a winner.

thanks. trade well.
  • #55
  • Mar 22, 2011 4:14am Mar 22, 2011 4:14am
Quoting winningfx
hi feliks,

entry: so your EA enters a trade when price closes above or below the ema? or when price bounces off the ema? what is your stoploss?

if the aboves are the case, then you will get more losses than you imagine. due to whipsaw and fakeouts. your ea is a robot that cannot see whether prices are in a range. it also does not know when news is coming out and stay out from entering trades. it also cannot see whether trend might be changing direction. it might enter a trade according to entry rules. but the move maybe losing momentum and...
I don't argue against all you sad. That 10 EMA strategy isn't my rules and i don't professional coder. I just know it can be 10 pips, maybe with another rules. But can! Just i believe it. 10 pips gaining isn't need so much giving attention to news, trend and another factors. Thats why i wrote 10 pips. This number of pips market can do every day. We just need to find a better way to achieve from this much as we can. Losses can be, i don't deny. For example i can prefer such as simple strategy.

Daily
21EMA and 8EMA
RSI(21)

8>21 and RSI(21)>50 Buy
8<21 and RSI(21)<50 Sell

But it's for long term trading and I don't think all traders have so patience to wait for this setup.

Regards...
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #56
  • Mar 22, 2011 9:13am Mar 22, 2011 9:13am
Quoting Feliks
I don't argue against all you sad. That 10 EMA strategy isn't my rules and i don't professional coder. I just know it can be 10 pips, maybe with another rules. But can! Just i believe it. 10 pips gaining isn't need so much giving attention to news, trend and another factors. Thats why i wrote 10 pips. This number of pips market can do every day. We just need to find a better way to achieve from this much as we can. Losses can be, i don't deny. For example i can prefer such as simple strategy.

Daily
21EMA and 8EMA
RSI(21)

8>21 and RSI(21)>50...
Agreed. 10 pips a day can be achieved by even some simple moving average crossing system or by observing the Ichimoku. Try the Ichimoku!

Good luck!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #57
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:38am Mar 22, 2011 10:38am
MA crosses can be profitable, but one should never trade the cross just because it crosses. Looking to the candles will give you better set ups. One example would be to wait until a candle high or low is broken before entering in the direction of the MA cross.
  • #58
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:41am Mar 22, 2011 10:41am
Quoting Forexia
Agreed. 10 pips a day can be achieved by even some simple moving average crossing system or by observing the Ichimoku. Try the Ichimoku!

Good luck!
Ichimoku on it's own is NOT profitable.
  • #59
  • Mar 22, 2011 10:42am Mar 22, 2011 10:42am
Quoting LetterBlack
MA crosses can be profitable, but one should never trade the cross just because it crosses. Looking to the candles will give you better set ups. One example would be to wait until a candle high or low is broken before entering in the direction of the MA cross.
I know, this is absolutely true.

MA cross will kill you long term.
  • #60
  • Mar 22, 2011 11:50am Mar 22, 2011 11:50am
Quoting qwertymyfx
Ichimoku on it's own is NOT profitable.
Did I say Ichimoku alone on its own? I just said try Ichimoku which means add it to your arsenal of indicators, take a look at it.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
1 trader viewing now