Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Need Help to Make Good Win Ratio System 1 reply

I lose 40 pips and win 6 to 10 pips... 17 replies

How to get 1-5 pips with 100% win ratio? 89 replies

Win/Loss Ratio and R/R Ratio Link? 11 replies

Win 2 trades out of 10 and win 180 pips 8 replies

Attachments: Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day
Exit Attachments

Help me get 100% Win Ratio & 10 pips a day

  • #21
  • Mar 9, 2011 1:26am Mar 9, 2011 1:26am
Quoting hanover
Let me try to understand where you're coming from.

You've been trading for more than 2 years, yet you still believe that it's possible to attain a 100% win rate, and a guaranteed +10 pips per day, every day. And all this by simply running an EA.

Some questions for you to ponder:

--- Do you believe that the world's best forex traders - including the elite few that have a net worth of over 100 million dollars - attain a 100% win rate? Do you believe that they never have a losing day?

--- How big do you think your positions would need to...
İf you are looking for 100%, you just try to find more closely 100%. So 95% or 98% also acceptable.))
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #22
  • Mar 9, 2011 1:45am Mar 9, 2011 1:45am
Quoting Feliks
İf you are looking for 100%, you just try to find more closely 100%. So 95% or 98% also acceptable.))
also if you say that statement 10 times, it doesn't make it more achievable or even desirable.
  • #23
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:40am Mar 15, 2011 11:40am
if somebody has a setup with 95% probability or more, he will not share it.

just finished a forwardtest with no losing trade over 8 Month.
so it is possible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 100.jpg Size: 68 KB
  • #24
  • Mar 15, 2011 11:52am Mar 15, 2011 11:52am
Quoting Climber
just finished a forwardtest with no losing trade over 8 Month.
There are plenty of losing trades.
Perhaps you meant to say something else?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-03-15_124942.png Size: 48 KB
  • #25
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:15pm Mar 15, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting hanover
Let me try to understand where you're coming from.

You've been trading for more than 2 years, yet you still believe that it's possible to attain a 100% win rate, and a guaranteed +10 pips per day, every day. And all this by simply running an EA.

Some questions for you to ponder:

--- Do you believe that the world's best forex traders - including the elite few that have a net worth of over 100 million dollars - attain a 100% win rate? Do you believe that they never have a losing day?

--- How big do you think your positions would need to be,...
10 pips is not a lot. It's just ONE candle. Many of the Moving Average Crossover systems should be able to achieve that.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #26
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:26pm Mar 15, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting Intu
There are plenty of losing trades.
Perhaps you meant to say something else?
each trade has at least 2 leggs (2 positions), most of the time 1 position ends with a profit and 1 with a loss, but the profitposition earns more than the losingposition los. it is a kind of correlaton method
  • #27
  • Edited 5:40pm Mar 16, 2011 5:07pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting Forexia
10 pips is not a lot. It's just ONE candle. Many of the Moving Average Crossover systems should be able to achieve that.
The key is how much you must risk in order to make your 10 pips.
___________________________________

Here's an interesting quote from a trader with 25+ years' experience. I'm not saying that I believe he's right, or that he's wrong. Read it, weigh it up for yourself, and draw your own conclusions:

".......I've had good years and slow years, while very successful over the long haul, thought I better tell those who think that trading can replace their job have the better odds winning the Powerball. Really! There are hundreds more who have won big in the Powerball than actually earn their money from private trading

.........

All of the professional traders I know, whether they trade forex or futures markets, do not make "so much per day". That is a phrase used by marketers, because they know what beginners are looking for, and that is a steady income so they can get rid of their jobs. Money from the market that you can count on does not come steady or nicely "so much per day". Real traders make profits, budget their expenses, save some profits, add some profits to their accounts for further building of the account, etc. Just like any business, which is what real trading is.

.........

Almost like the chicken and the egg. To know something has an edge you have to know what an edge is.

Quickly, name all your friends who have that going for them. A couple of great trades, or a month of great trades, or a year of great trades is nowhere near enough. To make 50 thousand-plus trades and be ahead, to be able to survive years of changing markets, politicians, governments, wives, ex-wives, good health, bad health--- while trading profitably is what you need from an edge.

.........

I will tell the only way a trader is able to make $1,000,000 from trading.

Here's an example of 10 thousand trades. Of these trades, you might lose on 6000 of them for small losses, win on 3800 of them for moderate profits, and win fairly big on 200 of them. You make your million from this series of trades by losing only $9 million on your total of losing trades while making $10 million dollars on your total of profitable trades...........

But this is nothing like you've been promised by the "gurus" and promoters of the "money per day" foolishness........"


You can read the whole post here, if you wish.
  • #28
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:47am Mar 18, 2011 4:47am
the Japan-event was the "Stress-Test" for my method.

still no losing trade
the open Drawdown was larger then usual, but also the profit was bigger

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18.03.2011.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #29
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:40pm Mar 18, 2011 1:40pm
Quoting Climber
the Japan-event was the "Stress-Test" for my method.

still no losing trade
the open Drawdown was larger then usual, but also the profit was bigger

Attachment
As Intu noted, your test results say explicitly that you have losing trades.
  • #30
  • Mar 18, 2011 2:43pm Mar 18, 2011 2:43pm
Your previous post and this most recent post show the same Absolute, Maximum, and Relative Drawdown. (~15%)

...so I can assume your open or in-trade drawdowns are larger.

Quoting Climber
the open Drawdown was larger then usual, but also the profit was bigger
Can you give us an idea of the "true" in-trade drawdown of your fant-abulous method?
  • #31
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:49pm Mar 18, 2011 4:49pm
Quoting Climber
if somebody has a setup with 95% probability or more, he will not share it.

just finished a forwardtest with no losing trade over 8 Month.
so it is possible.
Attachment
You can have a setup with 95% probability and still lose money overall. Conversely, there are trend traders with a 35% win rate who trade successfully for a living. The critical measure is not win rate, but risk-adjusted-return (aka expectancy or profit factor), and maximal drawdown.

Profit factor = (win rate x average net win size) - (loss rate x average net loss size)

You can see all of these stats in the MT4 tester report that you posted.

I recall reading somewhere that trading billionaire Paul Tudor Jones said that he could count on the fingers of one hand, the number of traders whom he's met, that have been able to maintain a profit factor of 2.0 over the course of their career.

By way of comparison, your EA currently has a PF of 2.2

Most EAs lack a real edge. By that I mean that they lack the intelligence needed to understand the forces that drive the markets, and the price patterns that ensue. Instead, most EAs tend to be built around optimized test results, and/or MM (hedging, staking strategies, etc). Gaming theory tells us that MM in itself can not provide an enduring edge, while optimization requires many thousands of trades to attain any kind of statistical validity.

An edgeless system is effectively making random entries and exits, and will eventually be beaten by transaction costs (spread, swap, etc). This may take some time, during which the system can have sequences of several winning weeks, followed by several losing weeks. If you run several systems alongside each other (check out websites like Collective2 and Zulutrade), you'll see that, due to the law of large numbers, some of these systems will start with a spectacular winning sequence. But this is merely fortuitous, and the win/loss patterns tend to even themselves out over time, just like the ratio of heads to tails tends toward 50/50, if you toss a coin for long enough.

Your system has completed only 169 trades. I'll be interested to see its profit factor after it's completed 2,000 trades. If the PF remains above 1.2 after that, then you might just be able to say with some confidence that you're not being "fooled by randomness".

Perhaps you think I'm a jaded troll who's trying to bash your purported success. Well, all I ask is that you reserve your judgement until you've completed the 2,000 trades that I suggested. If your EA remains profitable, I'll be the first to congratulate you. I wish you good luck.
  • #32
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:30pm Mar 18, 2011 5:30pm
Hi knukk,

a Trade with this method is not be long or short in one Currency pair but, for exemple, be long in one currency pair and be short (or long) in a oder currency pair at the same time.
so the result of one currency pair is not important but, the result of both positions together.

Hi Intu,
"Your previous post and this most recent post show the same Absolute, Maximum, and Relative Drawdown. (~15%)"

this numbers are worthless.
you see on the image that peak from trade 30 to 36, thats because i hat 3 open trades ( 6 open position ) an i closed first the 3 winning positions and than the 3 losing position ( all in less than a minute ). the 3 losing position together are (10429) and the 3 winning position are about 13K.

"Can you give us an idea of the "true" in-trade drawdown of your fant-abulous method?"
Thats the right question!
  • #33
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:15pm Mar 18, 2011 6:15pm
Hi hanover,

first, this is not a EA. This strategy i trade manualy.

Quoting hanover
You can have a setup with 95% probability and still lose money overall. Conversely, there are trend traders with a 35% win rate who trade successfully for a living. The critical measure is not win rate, but risk-adjusted-return (aka expectancy or profit factor), and maximal drawdown.

Profit factor = (win rate x average net win size) - (loss rate x average net loss size)

You can see all of these stats in the MT4 tester report that you posted.
i know what you mean, i trade for more than 10 years, and i know how hard it is to find an edge

Quoting hanover
Your system has completed only 169 trades. I'll be interested to see its profit factor after it's completed 2,000 trades. If the PF remains above 1.2 after that, then you might just be able to say with some confidence that you're not being "fooled by randomness".
weŽll see

Quoting hanover
Perhaps you think I'm a jaded troll who's trying to bash your purported success.
no, no problem and thank you for your input
  • #34
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:44am Mar 19, 2011 1:44am
I thought about you can do it by this way also... I am about 10 pips per day..
50 pips for a week or 200 pips for a month..
But I think 50 pips a week sounds so easy. One order per week, get 50 pips thats all
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
  • #35
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:14am Mar 19, 2011 2:14am
Quoting Feliks
..... "why not to create a system that wasn't be sensible to news or another technical/fundamental factors. ..... I have one main problem - Rules for this system.
100% win ratio is possible, and for just 10 pips, no way the following method could ever fail.

Method: 100% win ratio for sure 10 pips

1. Wait for New York open if you are living in Tokyo. Wait for Tokyo open if you are living in London and wait for London open if you are living in New York.

2. Open your trading platform three minutes after the market opens.

3. Open order window write your SHORT order no matter what pair you intend to trade. But do not execute this short order until you get confirmation using the following indicator.

4. Look at the sky through your window, if Mercury collides with Jupiter execute your short order.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #36
  • Mar 19, 2011 7:15am Mar 19, 2011 7:15am
Quoting Chicky
100% win ratio is possible, and for just 10 pips, no way the following method could ever fail.

Method: 100% win ratio for sure 10 pips

1. Wait for New York open if you are living in Tokyo. Wait for Tokyo open if you are living in London and wait for London open if you are living in New York.

2. Open your trading platform three minutes after the market opens.

3. Open order window write your SHORT order no matter what pair you intend to trade. But do not execute this short order until you get confirmation using the following indicator....

  • #37
  • Mar 19, 2011 8:40am Mar 19, 2011 8:40am
Can anyone point me to the better threads to learn how to use money management. I am new person and just want to learn.
  • #38
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:11pm Mar 19, 2011 1:11pm
Quoting hanover
The key is how much you must risk in order to make your 10 pips.
___________________________________

Here's an interesting quote from a trader with 25+ years' experience. I'm not saying that I believe he's right, or that he's wrong. Read it, weigh it up for yourself, and draw your own conclusions:

[color=blue]".......I've had good years and slow years, while very successful over the long haul, thought I better tell those who think that trading can replace their job have the better odds winning the Powerball. Really! There are hundreds more...
That has to do with your risk or money management policy, nothing to do with designing a strategy that earns you 10 pips per trade with certain % of probability.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #39
  • Mar 19, 2011 1:52pm Mar 19, 2011 1:52pm
This list of articles is always a good reference...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=39892
  • #40
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:38pm Mar 19, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting Chicky
100% win ratio is possible, and for just 10 pips, no way the following method could ever fail.

Method: 100% win ratio for sure 10 pips
..............
4. Look at the sky through your window, if Mercury collides with Jupiter execute your short order.
Actually I prefer to look the price. But if your method is profitable, it would great to see your statement))))
Think like an investor, Act as a speculator. Ferid H.
0 traders viewing now