Anyone watching GBPAUD - Nice confluence
james16 Chart Thread
- #91,981
- Mar 20, 2011 2:33pm Mar 20, 2011 2:33pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Feb 2008 | 9,794 Posts
- #91,982
- Mar 20, 2011 2:53pm Mar 20, 2011 2:53pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
- #91,985
- Edited 3:32pm Mar 20, 2011 3:15pm | Edited 3:32pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
MIKE and JARROO
This is a breakout and pullback question. Mike has a video about this.
Looking at one timeframe and then going to a lower timeframe for entry is the basis of the question here. Also, where price closes in relation to each timeframe is part of the question. ....
the question here is, what are the thoughts and how are probabilities affected on taking the 1h trade now, before/if the 4h closes above the resistance level.
So then the next question is, how would you say probabilities affect the 1h if the 4h closed above and then the 1h formed the pin. ..
let's tackle your chart first.
assuming they are of one currency pair or instrument, & both are current charts (time-wise)...
(depending on how many hours are left for the 4h bar to form...) i think your 1 hour chart has an excess of 2 bar. (if im right, u can discard any 2 bars from the 3 bars prior the PB or alternatively, consolidate the 2-3 bars prior the PB)
based on the scenario u laid out, i think there is a good chance that price will continue to go up once the 1h pin breaks.
i think the key points/question are:
point #1- trend (price trend during the day & prior days)
point #2- momentum (after the pin breaks)
point #3- S/R above the breakout area
question- do YOU trade 1h charts?
of course, i wont be surprised to see price range after that 1h pin. or the 1h pin failing... but that depends on the overall (real) scenario.
hope this makes sense
- #91,986
- Mar 20, 2011 3:26pm Mar 20, 2011 3:26pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Good point Jarroo,I put that chart to my folder and moved on,but what about now? We have 50-61,8 fibo,the lows from 0.9970,parity pretty close,an inside bar on 4h,do you see something like this?If not what are your thoughts?
but let me try...
based on your chart, it looks like a touch trade question.
do u touch trade?
regardless... trading, & life in general, doesnt always/often work as such:
if x + y + z = a (where x, y, z are criteria/factors; a is a specific result)
sometimes, it comes out as
if x + y + z = a1 or
if x + y + z = a2 or
if x + y + z = a3
if u dont touch trade, then u certainly need to wait/look for PA before taking a trade.
be flexible, adaptive.... not rigid
hope this makes sense
- #91,987
- Mar 20, 2011 3:47pm Mar 20, 2011 3:47pm
i havent followed your post exchanges with Sir Jarroo..
but let me try...
based on your chart, it looks like a touch trade question.
do u touch trade?
regardless... trading, & life in general, doesnt always/often work as such:
if x + y + z = a (where x, y, z are criteria/factors; a is a specific result)
sometimes, it comes out as
if x + y + z = a1 or
if x + y + z = a2 or
if x + y + z = a3
if u dont touch trade, then u certainly need to wait/look for PA before taking...
. I do touch trade but my trading"career"is only about 1 1/2 years,and given the situation in the world I'm inclined to think that the markets will not move as naturally as in normal times,so what I am asking is the dollar will be affected hard due to the situation in Libya?
- #91,989
- Mar 20, 2011 4:04pm Mar 20, 2011 4:04pm
yes, definately an interesting setup.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...tl#post4485014
i don't know if IB (interactive brokers) has a minimum account-size.
their commissions are very low: 0.005 usd/share for us-stocks (minimum 1 usd per trade).
at least they don't have a minimum order-quantity.
I mean, if I buy 1000 shares (more than $1 worth), I will pay only
1000*.005 = $5 as a commission.
Is this right ?
I also heard their tading platform in not user friendly.. I never tried it. Is this right ?
- #91,990
- Mar 20, 2011 4:10pm Mar 20, 2011 4:10pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne
- #91,991
- Mar 20, 2011 4:38pm Mar 20, 2011 4:38pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Good point Jarroo,I put that chart to my folder and moved on,but what about now? We have 50-61,8 fibo,the lows from 0.9970,parity pretty close,an inside bar on 4h,do you see something like this?If not what are your thoughts?
Yes that's a good level at parity, 1.0000. Nice confluences there, for sure.
As sChaos had said, the confluences are lining up nicely to support a bearish move down . .we just need that trigger confrimation . Bearish PA.
The 4 hour IB may not be enough PA confirmation for me. .I don't like that it formed late on Friday . .the end of the week's trading.
The .9950 may be a good level to gauge where we maybe heading . .meaning if that level finds Support there, we may be heading up. We have been in a long term uptrend on the Aud/Usd.
Here's what I mean . . .Just as the confluences at 1.0 are strong for a Bearish PA, it can be just as strong for Bullish PA if Price can break through it and close above.
Since Price currently has broke strongly below 1.0, my bias is it will act as Resistance . .bearish PA will only confirm it.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #91,992
- Mar 20, 2011 4:54pm Mar 20, 2011 4:54pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
NU seems to be approaching an important level near RN 1.7400. Here's how I see it using Jarroo's HCR and LCS concepts.
First 2 charts show levels on weekly (1 zoomed in and 1 zoomed out). Second 2 are same on daily.
Looks good D ..
If Price can't hold a Close below the .7350-.7360 (LCS Daily/Weekly) we're going up. . with the proper PA, of course . .
Edit: I may have to broaden this to the .7425 just saw the Monthly LCS. .Chart
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #91,993
- Edited 5:28pm Mar 20, 2011 5:12pm | Edited 5:28pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
MIKE and JARROO
Wondering if each of you have a moment to comment on the following:
This is a breakout and pullback question. Mike has a video about this.
Looking at one timeframe and then going to a lower timeframe for entry is the basis of the question here. Also, where price closes in relation to each timeframe is part of the question.
So, if we're looking at, for example, a 4h with a nice horizontal resistance level and on the 4h price moves above the resistance level but has not yet closed on the 4h above this level and we look at...
For me, crusen, it only decreases the probability of the Hourly PB you illustrated. If the 4 Hour bar Closed above Resistance . .that's the confirmation I'm looking for . .and it would increase the Hourly PB's probability of working out.
Now to really put the odds in your favor . .make the Hourly PB bigger and give it more Space ..and make it a Daily close above instead of a 4 hour.
Here's a Weekly/Daily example on the Gbp/Cad . .the Daily PB could have been bigger, but the same story was there.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #91,994
- Mar 20, 2011 5:36pm Mar 20, 2011 5:36pm
For me, crusen, it only decreases the probability of the Hourly PB you illustrated. If the 4 Hour bar Closed above Resistance . .that's the confirmation I'm looking for . .and it would increase the Hourly PB's probability of working out.
Now to really put the odds in your favor . .make the Hourly PB bigger and give it more Space ..and make it a Daily close above instead of a 4 hour.
Here's a Weekly/Daily example on the Gbp/Cad . .the Daily PB could have been bigger, but the same story was there.
Thanks Jarroo!!
- #91,995
- Mar 20, 2011 5:42pm Mar 20, 2011 5:42pm
- Joined Sep 2005 | Status: J16 Senior Member | 13,635 Posts
Thanks Jarroo!!
I think I got the question . .No close on the 4 hour but a close on the Hourly PA? Not saying the Hourly PB doesn't have a chance because it did close above Resistance . and the Resistance looked good on your chart . .I just like that extra confirmation . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
- #91,998
- Mar 20, 2011 6:49pm Mar 20, 2011 6:49pm
I think I got the question . .No close on the 4 hour but a close on the Hourly PA? Not saying the Hourly PB doesn't have a chance because it did close above Resistance . and the Resistance looked good on your chart . .I just like that extra confirmation . .
Yep, you got the question. Thanks again for your insight.