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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #941
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:51pm Mar 17, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting tgwhbb
hmm, can't make that...if it's recorded, would you be so kind as to post the link afterwards. Thx!
you can find it here:
http://www.traderkingdom.com/futures...ading-webinars
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #942
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:35pm Mar 17, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting aserbfx
you can find it here:
http://www.traderkingdom.com/futures...ading-webinars
thx for posting!
Change is the only constant
  • #943
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:57pm Mar 17, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting tgwhbb
5. Today's developing profile is currently a much clearer trend profile. If price builds value around the 1.4 area, IMO this confirm the breakout and signals further upside movement to come. That is not to say price won't come back down, but if it does after building value, I would be looking to buy the dips.

All in all i am still bullish on EU and thinking the next place to look for a long entry would be rejection of the merged VAH around 1.3990 is the setup is there.
this is playing out nicely so far, although the day isn't over so who knows what's hiding out there EU did bounce at the 3990 level and is building value after the breakout so the bullish signals are holding.

it will be interesting to see where we close today. A close below today's value (around 3960) should result in at least a move back to today's POC - developing at 1.4014 - a close above should result in the same move in the other direction. A close in value, well then we need to wait for testing of either today's VAL/VAH and take it from there...

EDIT: i generally stay away from making predictions, but i'll indulge myself as i have no open trades...i think EU will close today at or very near the POC at 4014
Change is the only constant
  • #944
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:24pm Mar 17, 2011 2:24pm
Just found this site from the above link:

http://www.traderkingdom.com/market-...hived-webinars
  • #945
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:27pm Mar 17, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting HIFX
pbylina,

Marketdelta is a software company that provides MP (AMT) indicators.

I was refering to Delta divergence
What is "Delta" – Delta is the term we use to describe the net difference between the buying and selling entering the market. It is calculated by subtracting the volume transacted at the bid price from the volume transacted at the ask price. By definition, MarketDelta considers trades that occur at the ask price to be trades initiated by aggressive buyers. Trades that occur at the bid price are considered to be initiated...
Too bad that MarketDelta doesnt have free Real-time demo with no expiration like Forex mt4 demos....I just downloaded ninjatrader so I can mess around on it but demo only last 5 days with real-time data... Now that I think of it, I remember a guy called FulcrumTrader(fulcrumtrader .com) who used delta divergence to make a trade. It looked like a very powerful tool, so looked all over the internet a while back for this "Bid/Ask Volume Delta " indicator for mt4. I couldnt find it thou. Im sure someone has made one but they wont give it for free...And/or some people dont beleive in "Tick Volume"....Anyway So I've just started this week learning MQL4 so I can make my own indicators and this "Delta Volume indicator" I will try to make....Hopefully Peace.
  • #946
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:55pm Mar 17, 2011 2:55pm
Quoting pbylina
..And/or some people dont beleive in "Tick Volume"....Anyway So I've just started this week learning MQL4 so I can make my own indicators and this "Delta Volume indicator" I will try to make....Hopefully Peace.
i think the problem with MT4/mql4 is that you can not tell if the tick volume is bid or ask as that is not part of the data feed. I could be wrong, but i think i remember reading something about that a while back.
Change is the only constant
  • #947
  • Mar 17, 2011 3:35pm Mar 17, 2011 3:35pm
Dukascopy Level II data accessible from a demo account may help you.

Quoting tgwhbb
i think the problem with MT4/mql4 is that you can not tell if the tick volume is bid or ask as that is not part of the data feed. I could be wrong, but i think i remember reading something about that a while back.
  • #948
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:58pm Mar 17, 2011 8:58pm
Quoting tgwhbb
All in all i am still bullish on EU and thinking the next place to look for a long entry would be rejection of the merged VAH around 1.3990 is the setup is there.

I am still out of the market, and will likely be as such until next week. Good luck to all, and if you see flaws in my interpretation please let us all know!
man now i really wish i had a limit order in place down to 3980 and rocket up to 4080

See you all Sunday night!
Change is the only constant
  • #949
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:15pm Mar 17, 2011 10:15pm
A bounce on initial activity off previous day POC, see EU head beyond VA on range extension with conviction & what looks like now responsive buying...

I have my market order in now with risk to 4040 (just below VAH) & initial target to 4150.

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  • #950
  • Mar 18, 2011 1:13am Mar 18, 2011 1:13am
I am diversifying my trade to GU too, just have my buy limit on 6150 with risk to trade at 6125 (just below POC). Trade to 6250 & 6300.

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  • #951
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:40am Mar 18, 2011 6:40am
Quoting kave
A bounce on initial activity off previous day POC, see EU head beyond VA on range extension with conviction & what looks like now responsive buying...

I have my market order in now with risk to 4040 (just below VAH) & initial target to 4150.

Attachment
update:

GU trade was close out after a short positive run up 22 pips but reverse, immediately reduce exposure to 16 pips SL & was eventually taken out.

EU is on approach to 4150 but getting a bit oversold now up with my stop now move up to just below 4100..
  • #952
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:18am Mar 18, 2011 7:18am
Quoting kave
update:

GU trade was close out after a short positive run up 22 pips but reverse, immediately reduce exposure to 16 pips SL & was eventually taken out.

EU is on approach to 4150 but getting a bit oversold now up with my stop now move up to just below 4100..
EU is practically at November's VAH, certainly not the time to take a long IMO, but let's see what the day has in store. current developing POC is at 4066 so you're stop just below 41 may get taken...

BTW, really nice call on the 4040 bounce last night, and i really like your charts! I had the same level in mind after the earlier bounce at 3990 in early asia...but as i posted earlier this week, with all this nonsense going on and G7 intervention, i'm paper trading till next week.
Change is the only constant
  • #953
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:44am Mar 18, 2011 7:44am
I was looking at the market profile for EU since 2002, using the pdf alexm posted a couple of months ago in this post. You'll notice the single print LVN at 1.3944, which is where EU has been hanging around the last little while.

I'm not sure if i'm reading the profile and order flow properly here, but it seems to me like EU is building value since 2008 above the 1.2800 level which is the closest HVN since EU inception. and is now filling in the 3944 single print, indicating a rotation up to the next HVN at 1.47 is in the cards.

While this is certainly much longer term, its always good to be reminded of the bigger picture.

alexm, if you regularly get these outlooks from Robin Mesch, please keep posting them.
Change is the only constant
  • #954
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:00am Mar 18, 2011 9:00am
Quoting tgwhbb
I was looking at the market profile for EU since 2002, using the pdf alexm posted a couple of months ago in this post....
Hope this help you..

KG
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  • #955
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:18am Mar 18, 2011 9:18am
Quoting tgwhbb
EU is practically at November's VAH, certainly not the time to take a long IMO, but let's see what the day has in store. current developing POC is at 4066 so you're stop just below 41 may get taken...

BTW, really nice call on the 4040 bounce last night, and i really like your charts! I had the same level in mind after the earlier bounce at 3990 in early asia...but as i posted earlier this week, with all this nonsense going on and G7 intervention, i'm paper trading till next week.
Yeah i agree, the VAH is a bit conspicuous....

Getting use to print charts. Hope Bandung can share his print version of the MP indicator
  • #956
  • Mar 18, 2011 10:15am Mar 18, 2011 10:15am
Quoting kave
Yeah i agree, the VAH is a bit conspicuous....

Getting use to print charts. Hope Bandung can share his print version of the MP indicator
today's profile is currently shaping up like a true double-distribution day with the primary POC around 4066 and the secondary around 4130. It's still early though, so things can change, but if today complete's a DD profile then a sign of reversal would be creating value in between those areas.

If anyone has more experience with DD profiles please do chime in here.
Change is the only constant
  • #957
  • Mar 18, 2011 11:05am Mar 18, 2011 11:05am
Quoting tgwhbb
today's profile is currently shaping up like a true double-distribution day with the primary POC around 4066 and the secondary around 4130. It's still early though, so things can change, but if today complete's a DD profile then a sign of reversal would be creating value in between those areas.

If anyone has more experience with DD profiles please do chime in here.
I got a 1-2-1 stretch distribution here on 30mins & i m betting on 1.42 for today...

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  • #958
  • Mar 18, 2011 11:46am Mar 18, 2011 11:46am
Quoting kave
I got a 1-2-1 stretch distribution here on 30mins & i m betting on 1.42 for today...
first time i've heard of 1-2-1. Can you explain?

1.42 seems like a reality...and i'm now really annoyed that i decided to stay out since yesterday...been waiting for this breakout for a while now, but the news and panic got the better of me as I deemed the end of this week too risky for me...but still better than being on the wrong side of things...and at least i've proven to myself I can keep myself from just jumping into a trade just because...it would have worked out this time, but who knows about the next time

Have a good weekend everyone, off to the airport soon for another business trip...
Change is the only constant
  • #959
  • Mar 18, 2011 11:50am Mar 18, 2011 11:50am
Quoting tgwhbb
I was looking at the market profile for EU since 2002, using the pdf alexm posted a couple of months ago in this post....
Yes tks alex for the posting.

Interesting point u put there tgwhbb

Did some digging & noted interesting yearly profile. 2008 itself i manage to derive 3 POC since it is a 3-2-1 formation distribution.
Price is now sitting on 4170 (09) & we got a secondary POC on 4680 & a VPOC way up on 5540; & prior to that the single print spot on Jan 2011 bounce off 2840.. all from 08.

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  • #960
  • Mar 18, 2011 12:01pm Mar 18, 2011 12:01pm
Quoting tgwhbb
first time i've heard of 1-2-1....
Just an analogous term. Steidlmayer in one of his book did mention those stretcht distribution like 3-2-1 P shape formation or could also be a 1-2-3, b formation

My chart is more like a "middle finger" formation if u like...thus perhaps 1-2-1 is a better fit. 2-3-2 maybe..just choose a ratio...
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