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Flag trading the trend

  • #1,421
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:19am Mar 17, 2011 7:19am
hi guys!

for a down trend, which swing has to be taken out?

i guess it s the #1 line , but i want to be sure..

Tx!
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  • #1,422
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:23am Mar 17, 2011 7:23am
Quoting davidb
Attached revised version to correct typo.

Jeff, I've added at your suggestion times to trade based on Divergence's posts. It's qualified in that he does not trade the London morning session whereas a lot of people do. I've put in Sujith's observation that things quieten down after 10:00. I've read elsewhere that activity picks up again after another 90 minutes or so and I suspect that may be the case.

Probably the best advice is trade around the market open times if possible to catch the volatility and avoid the quiet times.
Davidb,

Looks great. One question, you mention that the CCI must have pulled out of the -50 (Short) or +50 range (Long) before taking the trade. I remember Divergence mentioning that, but is there a timeframe/candle number that defines when that range needs to have been broken? ie the candle prior to the trigger bar, 2 candles, 3 or ?

RCWSO
  • #1,423
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:24am Mar 17, 2011 7:24am
Hi
Can someone explain how to attend the webinar
thanks in advance
  • #1,424
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:27am Mar 17, 2011 7:27am
just completed this for 10 pips

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  • #1,425
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:39am Mar 17, 2011 7:39am
although you had a winner, i believe it went against Div's rules, "if the trigger is not taken out on next bar you can get 1 more shot as long as cci is still past 50 and bar is still above/below ma and the bar is not more than 2 pips from ma"--here the trigger wasnt taken out as req.
  • #1,426
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:46am Mar 17, 2011 7:46am
Quoting tbjohnton
although you had a winner, i believe it went against Div's rules, "if the trigger is not taken out on next bar you can get 1 more shot as long as cci is still past 50 and bar is still above/below ma and the bar is not more than 2 pips from ma"--here the trigger wasnt taken out as req.
It looked to me as the next bar was the trigger, as it was over the 50 retracement and within the 2.6 pips of the sma so it looks as if it was within the rules to me, even though it was a down bar
  • #1,427
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:51am Mar 17, 2011 7:51am
hi everyone the only thing i am sure of is the 3 wave. but not sure of divergence, entry, and the stop loss. so i demo trade it. someone please tell me where i am right or wrong. thank you
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  • #1,428
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:51am Mar 17, 2011 7:51am
Quoting FXwest
just completed this for 10 pips

Attachment
I agree that this may not have been a valid entry. Your "trigger bar" was not taken out in accordance with Divergence's rules within 1 or 2 candles with the caveats listed previously. If you look about 5 candles further, that may have been a valid trigger and it was taken out, BUT it was also within 10 minutes of a lot of news coming out. So, I am not sure that should have been taken either. A lesson I am currently learning.
  • #1,429
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:55am Mar 17, 2011 7:55am
you may have a point about the news
  • #1,430
  • Mar 17, 2011 7:56am Mar 17, 2011 7:56am
Quoting dortFX
hi everyone the only thing i am sure of is the 3 wave. but not sure of divergence, entry, and the stop loss. so i demo trade it. someone please tell me where i am right or wrong. thank you
I am not so sure your 123 is correct. I don't show divergence with the two peaks you have it drawn between with reference to the RSI. The first peak value for me is around RSI 74 and the second around RSI 79. So, I am not sure that is a valid, counter-trend trade at that time. The trend is up and previous swings were taken out, so I don't think it is turning back down right now.

Just my thoughts. Any corrections?
  • #1,431
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:01am Mar 17, 2011 8:01am
rc--i dont think we can look at that one as a trigger, since there wasnt a pullback from the previous "non-used" triggers
  • #1,432
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:06am Mar 17, 2011 8:06am
Quoting tbjohnton
rc--i dont think we can look at that one as a trigger, since there wasnt a pullback from the previous "non-used" triggers
Yes, that could be true.

How do you define the pullback from previous "non-used" triggers?
  • #1,433
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:07am Mar 17, 2011 8:07am
DIV---do you have a rule that addresses once the avg. daily range is reached, like today when we are in an up trend, but we've already moved over 180pips
  • #1,434
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:07am Mar 17, 2011 8:07am
Quoting dortFX
hi everyone the only thing i am sure of is the 3 wave. but not sure of divergence, entry, and the stop loss. so i demo trade it. someone please tell me where i am right or wrong. thank you
Looks to me like there was a divergence at the point of the small hump just before the big one you have marked. That divergence failed however, and any 1-2-3 following a failed divergence wouldn't be a high probability trade.
Enter Signature
  • #1,435
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:11am Mar 17, 2011 8:11am
Quoting tbjohnton
DIV---do you have a rule that addresses once the avg. daily range is reached, like today when we are in an up trend, but we've already moved over 180pips
'Don't go back to the well too many times' is his quote reflecting the rule you are looking for. If the chart is ripe for a counter-trend move then there is no trade.
Enter Signature
  • #1,436
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:16am Mar 17, 2011 8:16am
i guess looking at what price did to get to that pt. would probably shed alot of light on what's to come, thanks for the input
  • #1,437
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:19am Mar 17, 2011 8:19am
Quoting Rcwso
Davidb,

Looks great. One question, you mention that the CCI must have pulled out of the -50 (Short) or +50 range (Long) before taking the trade. I remember Divergence mentioning that, but is there a timeframe/candle number that defines when that range needs to have been broken? ie the candle prior to the trigger bar, 2 candles, 3 or ?

RCWSO
Not that I'm aware of. I take it to mean that the pullback has to be strong enough to move the the CCI out of the +/- 50 range.
Too tired to argue. Too old to care.
  • #1,438
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:28am Mar 17, 2011 8:28am
Quoting Sarythsaya
Looks to me like there was a divergence at the point of the small hump just before the big one you have marked. That divergence failed however, and any 1-2-3 following a failed divergence wouldn't be a high probability trade.
Are you talking the divergence between the two candles at 08:50 GMT and 09:00 GMT?

Yes, that failed, with no 1-2-3 and I agree that there is no valid 1-2-3 after that. At least not yet.
  • #1,439
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:28am Mar 17, 2011 8:28am
Did I mark the trigger bar correctly in the attached chart?
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  • #1,440
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:40am Mar 17, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Rcwso
Are you talking the divergence between the two candles at 08:50 GMT and 09:00 GMT?

Yes, that failed, with no 1-2-3 and I agree that there is no valid 1-2-3 after that. At least not yet.
I was referring to the down bar just before the wide up-bar which almost market the high of the move. It appears to me that down-bar created a divergence, but the next move up didn't.

Its hard to describe without posting an arrow on a chart.
Enter Signature
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