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Phantom 6 System

  • #1,061
  • Mar 14, 2011 5:32am Mar 14, 2011 5:32am
Quoting Nicastro
1st Basket: MMTU at 1% @15 Min trade additions[/color]
Basket held over the preceding week-end
First trade entered at 12.55 GMT on 7th Mar.
[color=black][size=3][font=Times New Roman]Basket closed at 13.42 GMT on 9th Mar.
Trades: 79
Largest Floating DD –30.9%
If your basket can go -30.9% against you, do you think that there is a chance that your basket can go 30.9% for you? If so, increase your PP and test 10, 20, 30 or even 40.

If not, fade the baskets and you have the holy grail right here with a 30% return on one basket.
  • #1,062
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:53am Mar 14, 2011 8:53am
great, MB, many thanks! will demo it.

Quoting mbkennel
I'm now getting many "Off Quotes" errors so I don't know if recent results are reliable. I wonder if it may be the "Slippage" parameter which is not adjusted for 5 digit brokers. I fixed that in the version I'm attaching.

I would use the fully balanced for theoretical reasons alone.
  • #1,063
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:09pm Mar 14, 2011 3:09pm
Quoting Nicastro
I am of a generation where these computers were the subject of science fiction and I cannot seem to get my head round the concept of coding.

I am taking my first steps but fear that over the past fortnight I have come unstuck.

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]I have tried to make some changes to the EA posted on this thread by Roundrock, version Phantom6_01R, by the introduction of a third sub-basket. I have posted the details of this third sub-basket in post...
Nicastro,

I cleaned up the EA for you except for the UseLotsC error.

Im not sure what the purpose of basket c is, so I wasnt sure what to do with it. If you can explain how you wanted it traded maybe I can fix it.

Your errors were minor, looks like you copy/paste and forgot to change some stuff and you had a few brackets missing or out of place.

In the Add To Winning trades section there is nothing defined for basket_c on how to trade it, thats why the errors.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Phantom6_01xR -v4 -3 baskets.mq4   70 KB | 252 downloads
  • #1,064
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:10pm Mar 14, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting Nicastro
I am of a generation where these computers were the subject of science fiction and I cannot seem to get my head round the concept of coding.

I am taking my first steps but fear that over the past fortnight I have come unstuck.

[size=3][font=Times New Roman]I have tried to make some changes to the EA posted on this thread by Roundrock, version Phantom6_01R, by the introduction of a third sub-basket. I have posted the details of this third sub-basket in post...

Chaps,
During the day I have managed to reduce the errors down to 3. But now I am stuck

Can one of you coders please lend a hend.

Pretty please..........

I attach the updated EA with less errors
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Phantom6_01xR -v4 -3 baskets.mq4   70 KB | 255 downloads
  • #1,065
  • Edited 3:56am Mar 15, 2011 3:15am | Edited 3:56am
Quoting thorn
Nicastro,

I cleaned up the EA for you except for the UseLotsC error.

Im not sure what the purpose of basket c is, so I wasnt sure what to do with it. If you can explain how you wanted it traded maybe I can fix it.

Your errors were minor, looks like you copy/paste and forgot to change some stuff and you had a few brackets missing or out of place.

In the Add To Winning trades section there is nothing defined for basket_c on how to trade it, thats why the errors.

Mr Thorn,

Thank you very much for your time.

I am about to start demoing it this AM.

{Edit: having downloaded it, I see that the Add to Winning Trades section of the EA is what I would call double dutch twice over on a dark night when the witches are out - not only incomprehensibe, but also frightening}

Basket_C is to trade in exactly the same way as the other 2 baskets. It is to add a trade of either pairs in the desired direction provided that the Phantom for the pair in question is in profit and the sum of all trades actually placed for the pair are also in profit.

Thorn, would it be possible for you to code these Basket_C requirements?

Once again, many thanks in anticipation
  • #1,066
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:55am Mar 16, 2011 1:55am
After about a week and nearly 30% drawdown, 2a closed yesterday with 3 % profit. I never expected that it would recover. May be, as it has been earlier, we need to set a higher profit pc say 10% and then trail it so that we can utilize the momentum.
I had mirror 2a also running which runs in the opposite direction and it closed twice making around 4 %. This EA has not been in any major drawdown for the time being. I just want to check, when one is in drawdown, other will make profit or is there any relationship at all.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,067
  • Mar 16, 2011 4:51am Mar 16, 2011 4:51am
Quoting IamTHAT
I had mirror 2a also running which runs in the opposite direction and it closed twice making around 4 %.
When you say mirror I assume that you've just moved the buys to sells so that the list is:
Group 1, The Phantom Buys
1. GBPCHF
2. CHFJPY
3. EURCHF

Group 2, The Phantom Sells
4. GBPUSD
5. USDCHF
6. EURJPY
  • #1,068
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:24am Mar 16, 2011 5:24am
Quoting TheMaxx
When you say mirror I assume that you've just moved the buys to sells so that the list is:
Exactly..
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,069
  • Mar 16, 2011 5:44am Mar 16, 2011 5:44am
Quoting IamTHAT
Exactly..
Do they complement each other and smooth out returns?
  • #1,070
  • Mar 16, 2011 7:35am Mar 16, 2011 7:35am
Quoting TheMaxx
Do they complement each other and smooth out returns?
I don't know yet but hope it will. I have been running it for only past week or so but it is likely that they behave independently as each requires typical conditions to be met before orders are placed.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,071
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:01am Mar 16, 2011 10:01am
i've done this for a month now. i tried to follow your success, so i used that phantom6_01x. i did NOT use "forced reset by x hours".

i set up two mirrors, so that for each pair, long and short may both be traded.

the performance is random to me.

indeed, when EA 1 is trapped in DD, EA 2 may be making money or be trapped in DD as well.

before i demo "two mirrors", i thought that maybe when EA 1 is trapped in DD, EA 2 may make money on a consistent or accelerated manner. it turned out NO to me. EA 2 is working on its own pace: either making money or also trapped in DD.

note that there is no such an event that both EA 1 and EA 2 are in serious DD during my 1 month demo.

my current guess is that two mirrors are not necessarily better helping each other than two same EA running with slightly different settings.

Quoting TheMaxx
Do they complement each other and smooth out returns?
  • #1,072
  • Edited 2:12pm Mar 16, 2011 2:00pm | Edited 2:12pm
I agree with charvo. I saw the same.

What really matters I believe is whether the underlying currencies (not pairs, currencies!) have some trend in them. If they do, it wins, if they reverse too quickly, it loses. That's it.

Last couple of days, more trends = more profits. Previous week or two, few trends = losses.

Generally macroeconomic instability = trends, macroeconomic stability = choppy currencies.

The decorrelated market could be equities.
  • #1,073
  • Mar 16, 2011 4:16pm Mar 16, 2011 4:16pm
i also observed an effect of X factor (add trades when previous pos are positive...). the whole basket might freeze, hanging there, no more adding, and no closing either, because all 6 pairs have positions with negative floating pips. i guess that after many weeks, these kind baskets will move again, but taking too many days alone make it intolerable, i usually cut the biggest losers manually, and this seemed to help the basket recover quickly. ( i said before, cutting biggest loser is not quite smart, but in real life, it turns to be an easy solution ) however, when i cut the biggest loser, i always cut a group of 3 hedged positions together. for example, when i cut a bleeding gbpchf with -200 pips, i'll also cut a gbpusd and usdchf (these 2 may be slightly + or -).

i also feel that "reset by forced hours" add randomness into the system's expected performance. Correct me, since i'm not sure. i guess this extra randomness is not a good thing. it might help close baskets faster, but it also might delay it a lot. if this system has an edge, then i don't need "that forced reset" to interfere with it.

Quoting mbkennel
What really matters I believe is whether the underlying currencies (not pairs, currencies!) have some trend in them. If they do, it wins, if they reverse too quickly, it loses. That's it.

Last couple of days, more trends = more profits. Previous week or two, few trends = losses.
  • #1,074
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:17am Mar 17, 2011 1:17am
charvo: I'm not sure of that.

I think of it this way. The EA works by short term momentum from a given set point, on the assumption that the markets do have some short-term trends, but not in all pairs at once.

If the set point is far enough back in time and you never reset, then the phantoms controlling which next trade to take are random.

A reset starts the counting of the phantoms from a given new point so that short term trends are more visible.

However, it may be better to give up entirely on the basket and close all and reset. Maybe close all baskets by Friday afternoon?
  • #1,075
  • Mar 17, 2011 5:44am Mar 17, 2011 5:44am
Quoting charvo
i also observed an effect of X factor (add trades when previous pos are positive...). the whole basket might freeze, hanging there, no more adding, and no closing either, because all 6 pairs have positions with negative floating pips. i guess that after many weeks, these kind baskets will move again, but taking too many days alone make it intolerable, i usually cut the biggest losers manually, and this seemed to help the basket recover quickly. ( i said before, cutting biggest loser is not quite smart, but in real life, it turns to be an easy solution...
Charvo,

I would agree with you about the "x" factor. Think I posted couple weeks ago about that. Early in the run I think it works ok, even helps get rid of the few bad trades. But if you get to the point of 20 or more trades and running for few days, it does seem to cause the basket to stall. I think manually cutting is the way to go, and your idea of a group of 3 makes sense.
  • #1,076
  • Mar 17, 2011 11:51am Mar 17, 2011 11:51am
yes, although a stalled basket might turn around itself, it usually takes many days, and a lasting DD period.

time is money, i mean in physical fact. so i often wait no more, and cut the apparent losers.

by the way, timing is an issue that we may ponder. what if we add trade not by 1 hour, but by 1 day? seemingly more capable of capturing market trend. ......i haven't get a chance to try yet.

Quoting thorn
But if you get to the point of 20 or more trades and running for few days, it does seem to cause the basket to stall. I think manually cutting is the way to go, and your idea of a group of 3 makes sense.
  • #1,077
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:26pm Mar 17, 2011 12:26pm
Quoting thorn
Charvo,

I would agree with you about the "x" factor. Think I posted couple weeks ago about that. Early in the run I think it works ok, even helps get rid of the few bad trades. But if you get to the point of 20 or more trades and running for few days, it does seem to cause the basket to stall. I think manually cutting is the way to go, and your idea of a group of 3 makes sense.
Mr Thorn,

The introduction on the third sub-basket was intended to ensure that the basket never got to the 20 or so trades that seem to be the max number of trades before the basket would stall.

The currencies in sub-basketC are buy EURCAD and sell USDCAD which taken with the sell EURUSD in sub-basket A will ensure that we are always trading the most active pair (EU) either as a sale in sub-basket A or as a buy at 90+% correlation via EC in sub-basket C.

I think that in implementing the execution of these changes to the EA that you kindly cleaned up for me (and uploaded at post 1063), we would then have an EA which can hold its own in the face of tsunamis and nuclear meltdown.

Mr Thorn, I have tried to implement the changes to the cleaned up EA that you posted - but I'm afraid that I'm going backwards.

Can you please devote some time to this inorder to move it forward.

Sincerely

G Nicastro
  • #1,078
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:18pm Mar 17, 2011 9:18pm
MB, i think your opinions over, and feel a little different. check below.

I think of it this way. The EA works by short term momentum from a given set point, on the assumption that the markets do have some short-term trends, but not in all pairs at once.

your assumption seems not sufficiently inclusive. are you afraid of long-term trend, or all pairs moves simultaneously? the stronger the overall market moves, the longer the move lasts, the easier this system perform, imho....it'll simply add the strongest pair.

especially, when the basket is trapped in serious DD, it definitely will need this kind of huge move.

If the set point is far enough back in time and you never reset, then the phantoms controlling which next trade to take are random.

A reset starts the counting of the phantoms from a given new point so that short term trends are more visible.

when DD is already huge, this reset tend to add more pos that are againest overall market trend (if there is one for recent days). that's why i doubt if reset is valid.

However, it may be better to give up entirely on the basket and close all and reset. Maybe close all baskets by Friday afternoon?

o ye, i think early closure is theoretically great, but difficult to practice. if the DD is low, i feel reluctant to close. if DD is huge, i'll feel more reluctant to close all (since some of pos are riding correctly in terms of market movement) so cut losers one by one is easier for my heart, maybe wrong, just fit my way.....

As to friday afternoon, i guess it is always coin-flip, isn't it?
  • #1,079
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:37pm Mar 17, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting Nicastro
Mr Thorn,

The introduction on the third sub-basket was intended to ensure that the basket never got to the 20 or so trades that seem to be the max number of trades before the basket would stall.

The currencies in sub-basketC are buy EURCAD and sell USDCAD which taken with the sell EURUSD in sub-basket A will ensure that we are always trading the most active pair (EU) either as a sale in sub-basket A or as a buy at 90+% correlation via EC in sub-basket C.

I think that in implementing the execution of these changes to the EA that you kindly...
Im afraid Im going backwards too. Im having trouble figuring just how to code it. I am still a noob at mlq4. Maybe give a shout out to Roundrock. I think he wrote this one. Or if not, he is seems to be pretty good programer he might be able to do it.
  • #1,080
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:07am Mar 18, 2011 4:07am
Today I closed 2a when profit was around 7% . I had set 10% Profit Pct.
May be we should trail the basket to take advantage of the momentum.
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
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