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  • #28,821
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:39am Mar 15, 2011 7:39am
Quoting uptrendup
What has happened to this pair?
today more than 270 pips down & still continuing downside.
Its the "Bubble" effect...think someones popped it! I did hear a popping noise last night around midnight...i'm sure they've popped it.

Hot air can only hold it up for so long..after that, its on its own.
Target 0.8900 could be here within days...as wave 5 of this current cycle had already topped out at 1.0255.

Sanksalot
Hope it helps
  • #28,822
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:48am Mar 15, 2011 7:48am
Quoting Venice
That level I spoke of earlier, 9967. Mate, that was a signal for me to enter a short position on the daily chart. Next stop, 9867.

Take that for what it's worth.

Target #1 hit. My daily chart setup is rarely wrong when it gives it's signals.
  • #28,823
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:01pm Mar 15, 2011 12:01pm
AUD/USD Classical
March 15, 2011

AUD/USD: Although the market has been very well supported on a medium-term basis ahead of 0.9800, we continue to favor risks for additional downside and like the idea of selling into any rallies.

Ultimately, we see the market in the process of carving out a major top with the formation of what looks to be a very unconventional head shoulders pattern. The neckline for this formation is highly debatable, but we will call 0.9800 as the neckline, with a weekly close below this figure to open the door for a severe decline back towards 0.9000 over the medium-term. Ultimately, only back above 1.0250 would negate and give reason for pause.

http://twurl.nl/gmoz3d
  • #28,824
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:07pm Mar 15, 2011 12:07pm
Odds of an Aussie rate cut now higher than a UK rate hike
Tue, Mar 15 2011

Dovish RBA minutes overnight and fears of a collapse in Japanese demand for Australian raw materials are helping increase odds of a rate cut by the RBA at its next meeting.

Odds jumped to 34% of a cut at the close of Asian trade from only 5% yesterday. AUD/USD is off its lows but is 180 pip below US closing levels of 1.01. Odds of a UK hike are only 7% at the April MPC meeting. Cable is mid-range, at 1.6080, off 1.5980 lows and 1.6180 highs.
  • #28,825
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:15pm Mar 15, 2011 12:15pm
AUD/USD Outlook
Mar 15 2011

AUD/USD's fall accelerates to as low as 0.9815 today so far and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.9803 support. Break there will add more credence to the case of medium term reversal and should target 0.9536 support and below.
On the upside, above 0.99224 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, note that bearish divergence condition remains in daily and weekly MACD. Reversal should be imminent even if 1.0254 is not yet the major top. We'll continue to look for topping signal in case of another rise. On the downside break of 0.9803 support will now be an early signal of medium term reversal and will turn focus to 0.9536 support for confirmation.

http://twurl.nl/45cn0r
  • #28,826
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:20pm Mar 15, 2011 12:20pm
unless there is another disaster on the way, my opinion is that tomorrow it'll turn north again. after retesting the .9803 support. time for longs again. and possitive swaps.
  • #28,827
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:37pm Mar 15, 2011 2:37pm
Take profit placed on 9845 for shorts (hedge), possible longs to be traded next European session.
Biggest joker
  • #28,828
  • Mar 15, 2011 3:33pm Mar 15, 2011 3:33pm
I'm also looking at some sort of technical bounce. Any spike above what i closed at will be placed back in for the ride back down.
  • #28,829
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:44pm Mar 15, 2011 6:44pm
Quoting papaki
unless there is another disaster on the way, my opinion is that tomorrow it'll turn north again. After retesting the .9803 support. Time for longs again. And possitive swaps.

i wouldn't take longterm long position at the moment,
no one can make gurantee for that atomic mill.

And from history, that factory has many record of hiding infor away from the public.

So the moment, sculp only.
  • #28,830
  • Mar 15, 2011 6:49pm Mar 15, 2011 6:49pm
Approaching DPP soon.
  • #28,831
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:16pm Mar 15, 2011 7:16pm
Damn, Aussie took off without me again. Really need to learn to board the train lol... i'll buy if we get a retest of the DPP.
  • #28,832
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:22pm Mar 15, 2011 7:22pm
News out in 10.
  • #28,833
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:25pm Mar 15, 2011 7:25pm
Quoting Venice
Damn, Aussie took off without me again. Really need to learn to board the train lol... i'll buy if we get a retest of the DPP.
looks like more than a retracement rather than a new trend. i think it will go back to its recent lows later and give us the opportunity to reload. that's what i am waiting for as well. but this is aussie... it may keep going north without us on.
  • #28,834
  • Mar 15, 2011 7:26pm Mar 15, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting papaki
looks like more than a retracement rather than a new trend. i think it will go back to its recent lows later and give us the opportunity to reload. that's what i am waiting for as well. but this is aussie... it may keep going north without us on.
Yeah, we all know how this silly thing is. It doesn't believe in going down. lol

I was surprised to see euro recovered much better then the aussie did today though.
  • #28,835
  • Mar 15, 2011 8:53pm Mar 15, 2011 8:53pm
I am long:

1/2 lot from 1.0080
1/2 lot from 1.0002
1 lot from 9970
1 lot from 9830
2 lots from 9815

Holding all for 1.0140. Stops @ 9725. I am turning off my computer and going to let this series run it's course. I'll check in once a day and keep you guys posted. If we get another topside test--- my month is made!!!

Good trades to all

Regards,
  • #28,836
  • Mar 15, 2011 8:54pm Mar 15, 2011 8:54pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I am long:

1/2 lot from 1.0080
1/2 lot from 1.0002
1 lot from 9970
1 lot from 9830
2 lots from 9815

Holding all for 1.0140. Stops @ 9725. I am turning off my computer and going to let this series run it's course. I'll check in once a day and keep you guys posted. If we get another topside test--- my month is made!!!

Good trades to all

Regards,
What's up Petra. Do you average positions or all they all kept separate?
  • #28,837
  • Mar 15, 2011 9:35pm Mar 15, 2011 9:35pm
Quoting Venice
What's up Petra. Do you average positions or all they all kept separate?
I do not average down, if that's what you mean. I buy near resistance/support areas. I try to determine my entry areas on weekends and then implement that plan during the week. The size of my entry is determined by the strength of the support areas. So my entry might be 1/2 lot, 1 lot, 2 lots, or sometimes more depending on how I view that area. I took 3 lots near 9800 support area today. That is a pretty strong area, so the chances of a clean break were very low.

Regards,
  • #28,838
  • Mar 16, 2011 12:55am Mar 16, 2011 12:55am
Long at 0.9890 just now..
closed it at 0.9940..
Closed too early by mistake!
  • #28,839
  • Mar 16, 2011 1:45am Mar 16, 2011 1:45am
Quoting evelee8
Long at 0.9890 just now..
closed it at 0.9940..
Closed too early by mistake!
50 PIPS is a good days wages.

  • #28,840
  • Mar 16, 2011 2:07am Mar 16, 2011 2:07am
Look at the H1 chart, I think it may be forming a bear flag, with the top around resistance .998ish

Bottom at .975 for first target, 0.97 by next week/friday.

This target, could be major support if you are inclined to believe that they will keep up the funny money QE bit and keep going.

THe long run trend support from the financial crash in '08 coincides with about .97 as well

Or.......we could go up and I could get stopped out haha.
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