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Ichimoku forever

  • #15,881
  • Mar 9, 2011 2:55am Mar 9, 2011 2:55am
watching USD/JPY for the moment, price kumo outbreak, clear space CS on m15
  • #15,882
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:02am Mar 9, 2011 3:02am
Quoting huskyboy
watching USD/JPY for the moment, price kumo outbreak, clear space CS on m15
AUDJPY also looking good.
Careful of any risk off potential in the market especially involving AUD pairs.
  • #15,883
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:31am Mar 9, 2011 6:31am
cheers for the quick reply. Google docs no longer seem to have he sheet anymore. Does anyone have one i could copy?
Thanks


Quoting huskyboy
look at Geraldfx ' signature
  • #15,884
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:12am Mar 9, 2011 7:12am
Quoting captaincol
cheers for the quick reply. Google docs no longer seem to have he sheet anymore. Does anyone have one i could copy?
Thanks
forget about the sheet, use Kinonen's indi, KINO MONITOR ICHI V3-1, same procedure
  • #15,885
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:20am Mar 9, 2011 8:20am
Quoting SanMiguel
Just to clarify, the Ts and Ks do not attract price directly, what is happening is that price has moved beyond its average. So, when price has moved far beyond its average, it is likely that you will get a retrace somewhere but it doesn't have to happen.
You could in fact plot a graph of the average distance that price moves from the Ks and this would allow you to time some of the retraces a bit better with statistics but as always the market responds to price levels as the more important points.
Yes, I agree it actually reminds me of the bell curve in statistics. Thanks!
  • #15,886
  • Edited 2:47am Mar 10, 2011 12:28am | Edited 2:47am
EURCHF 15 minute may be good for a breakout on the short side. Price is currently in the Kumo. If it closes below the Kumo in the next few hours, a short position could be good. A major resistance level is only 30 pips down though. Maybe open two small trades, TP at the resistance level 1.2900 for one and move the other to BE as a free trade.
Note the 1.2900 level is a major resistance level going back to 17th and 18th Feb. A major break of his could signal a reversal on the higher time frames possibly testing lows of late February. Daily TF price has been sitting in the Kumo since late January.

Update
You would have made 20 pips on the first trade not 20 (wrong resistance level), but this has been locked in none the less. Second trade would still be running at 30 pips, back from 50 pips up.
  • #15,887
  • Mar 12, 2011 11:32pm Mar 12, 2011 11:32pm
quick question: does everyone use the Chikou span relative to the price(t-26) or the Kumo(t-26)?
  • #15,888
  • Edited 5:10am Mar 13, 2011 4:34am | Edited 5:10am
Quoting captaincol
quick question: does everyone use the Chikou span relative to the price(t-26) or the Kumo(t-26)?
When I do use it, it is usually relative to the price.
For me it is actually the least useful of the indicators on an ichi chart. Note, many here will disagree with me and tell you it is very important so it is up to you to decide and experiment with. The reason I personally find it the least useful, is that it shows you where the price was 26 periods ago and when you get moves in the market, the price moves care little about where the price was 26 periods ago, it just moves. If the price is ranging, well that can be deduced without the chikou.
Having said that, one thing is for sure, if you are in a trade that is trending up well, the chikou will be beyond the price from 26 periods ago.

Try and find some areas on a chart where you might have entered a trade based on Ts/Ks cross but you wouldn't have taken it because of the chikou and post them.

DOwnload the backtester here and try it out: http://www.ichimokuworld.com/uploads/3/7/7/1/3771538/practiceanytime.ex4
  • #15,889
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:38am Mar 13, 2011 5:38am
Quote
DOwnload the backtester here and try it out: http://www.ichimokuworld.com/uploads...iceanytime.ex4

nice one,i'll try it later

about Chikou span,i find it useful for S/R
  • #15,890
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:00am Mar 13, 2011 6:00am
Quoting SanMiguel
When I do use it, it is usually relative to the price.
For me it is actually the least useful of the indicators on an ichi chart. Note, many here will disagree with me and tell you it is very important so it is up to you to decide and experiment with. The reason I personally find it the least useful, is that it shows you where the price was 26 periods ago and when you get moves in the market, the price moves care little about where the price was 26 periods ago, it just moves. If the price is ranging, well that can be deduced without the chikou.
Having...

thanks for the backtester
  • #15,891
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:09am Mar 13, 2011 10:09am
Quoting SanMiguel
When I do use it, it is usually relative to the price.
For me it is actually the least useful of the indicators on an ichi chart. Note, many here will disagree with me and tell you it is very important so it is up to you to decide and experiment with. The reason I personally find it the least useful, is that it shows you where the price was 26 periods ago and when you get moves in the market, the price moves care little about where the price was 26 periods ago, it just moves. If the price is ranging, well that can be deduced without the chikou.
Having...
For me chikou is the most important component because it represents momentum. Also chikou will tell u when to exit price. Very often if u trade long enough u will find that chikou bounces off KS or Kumos almost 70% of the time. It will tell u that u need to watch out these region.

And of course, different people will have different strategy. You may need to find out what is best for your trading plan.

One good example that i had a good trade was last friday. I was wondering if the bear was strong to break into kumo. I waiting for the chikou to get near to the kumo and zoom into smaller time frame (M15) to hunt for a long entry as i was expecting for a bounce off the kumo. It was worth the risk to long as i was hunting for a counter trend. I exited at the KS with 80 pips (kumo break + chikou break KS).

Good luck.
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  • #15,892
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:28am Mar 13, 2011 10:28am
<strong>EURGBP: 3rd approach of resistance more likely to break. ck bullish and clear, Ts>Ks.</strong>
http://www.sidekicker.net/http://sid...313-161934.jpg

<strong>GBPCAD: Cloud break, conservative traders can await the clearance of the ck from the kumo.</strong>
http://www.sidekicker.net/http://sid...313-162051.jpg
  • #15,893
  • Mar 13, 2011 12:37pm Mar 13, 2011 12:37pm
[quote=SanMiguel;4467084]<strong>EURGBP: 3rd approach of resistance more likely to break. ck bullish and clear, Ts>Ks.</strong>
http://www.sidekicker.net/http://sid...313-161934.jpg


Good point San Miguel, although i think it is too late and too risky to buy at supply zone. We missed the chance at C , which was test of the daily kumo, almost risk free trade.
Howerer, there is a possibility the price to complete the ABCD pattern where D is 161.8 FIBB and test the top of weekly kumo.
At the current level, it's logical the price to retrace, it has been rejected few times already.
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  • #15,894
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:13pm Mar 13, 2011 1:13pm
[quote=BamBam;4467224]
Quoting SanMiguel
<strong>EURGBP: 3rd approach of resistance more likely to break. ck bullish and clear, Ts>Ks.</strong>
http://www.sidekicker.net/http://sid...313-161934.jpg


Good point San Miguel, although i think it is too late and too risky to buy at supply zone. We missed the chance at C , which was test of the daily kumo, almost risk free trade.
Howerer, there is a possibility the price to complete the ABCD pattern where D is 161.8 FIBB and test the top of weekly kumo.
At the...
It is not just that. The weekly chikou has breaked the KS.
  • #15,895
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:16pm Mar 13, 2011 3:16pm
[quote=GeraldFX;4467287]
Quoting BamBam

It is not just that. The weekly chikou has breaked the KS.
Some major resistance at this line on the weekly.
It's a tricky pair especially with the possible outlook of increased rates by the Boe in the next few months.
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  • #15,896
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:08pm Mar 13, 2011 4:08pm
[quote=SanMiguel;4467494]
Quoting GeraldFX

Some major resistance at this line on the weekly.
It's a tricky pair especially with the possible outlook of increased rates by the Boe in the next few months.
Hi All,

Was just about to say that the long term EURGBP chart is driving my near term outlook. Seems to me that the 0.8750 area is going to be the battle ground between the bears and the bulls in this pair.

Regarding the Chikou span, I am not sure if any of your guys have read the book about the Turtle Traders but without going into detail, these guys have a system where they only buy once the market price action is higher than a set prior period of days (for example's sake lets say it's 50 days) and they also only close out positions once the market closes below a prior period of days price action (for example's sake let's say 21 days).

The chikou span and the Turtles trading methods are not linked however the importance of price making new highs over an extended period and new lows as a gauge of market strength/momentum strike me as being more than coincidence.

I believe that on the longer time frames (1hr +) that the CS has some real value however on the shorter timeframes it begins to lose context, that is just my opinion though and many will likely disagree.

Watch the GBPUSD here guys. Friday marked a reversal pin bar on the daily at the 1.60-1.6050 support zone and on the weekly price action has also retested and failed at the 1.60 handle support area.

You can see this by getting a naked chart and just drawing a horizontal line at 1.6000 and another at 1.6050. You may even find it easier to see this area if you draw a long rectangle box to highlight it. This will form a key support base here and take some breaking. I am long the GBPUSD off its test of 1.60 last week (from 1.5986) and am looking at this for a longer term BUY hold position. There is obviously some geopolitical risk in the markets at the moment however markets tend to climb walls of worry when people are skittish and then fall from the sky when everyone is blindly optimistic. The fact everyone is a little wary at the moment implies to me we may see risk move higher in the coming week - provided there is no major news released like a Greek default or Saudi war.

Keep an eye on the GBPUSD, it could be a good runner trade and with stops below 1.5950 level it has a good risk reward ratio. I am looking for any small retracement to get another shot at going long again with some more size. Any move back top the 1.6050 level or below will be a buy for me provided price remains above 1.5950.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #15,897
  • Mar 14, 2011 4:33am Mar 14, 2011 4:33am
CS bounce
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  • #15,898
  • Mar 14, 2011 5:17am Mar 14, 2011 5:17am
hello all
when you wait for a confirmation,do you wait for Ks to get out of the kumo?in most cases the Ks takes a long time to go out of the kumo and miss big part of the trade.

ps check the daily nzdusd,looks interesting setup
Never again will fade the trend
  • #15,899
  • Mar 14, 2011 5:27am Mar 14, 2011 5:27am
Quoting swingfiddle
hello all
when you wait for a confirmation,do you wait for Ks to get out of the kumo?in most cases the Ks takes a long time to go out of the kumo and miss big part of the trade.

ps check the daily nzdusd,looks interesting setup
The trendline break was the low risk entry on NZDUSD (plus confirmation below kumo). I am actually out of this trade now at support. Shorting the support area isn't particularly good practice so you might want to wait for a retrace to the Ks first to see what happens. It does look like it is setting up for a breakout to the downside though.

One interesting fundamental outlook. The earthquake in NZ caused the NZD to weaken whereas the earthquake in Japan caused the YEN to strengthen...go figure.
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  • #15,900
  • Mar 14, 2011 6:08am Mar 14, 2011 6:08am
Added to the GBPUSD long position @ 1.6040 earlier today on the test of the daily pivot.

Took profit on half @ 1.6110 for +60 pips with stops now to break even +10 @ 1.6050. 4hr close above 1.61326 weekly pivot and stops should be moved to 1.6085.

EURUSD - currently watching for any reversal signals around current levels looking for a retest of the 1.3780-1.3830 level before entering a new long position.

Hope some of you guys took some pips from the GBPUSD also.

Cheers,

4x

[quote=4xAddict;4467559]
Quoting SanMiguel

Hi All,

Was just about to say that the long term EURGBP chart is driving my near term outlook. Seems to me that the 0.8750 area is going to be the battle ground between the bears and the bulls in this pair.

Regarding the Chikou span, I am not sure if any of your guys have read the book about the Turtle Traders but without going into detail, these guys have a system where they only buy once the market price action is higher than a set prior period of days (for example's sake lets say it's 50 days) and they also...
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