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  • #15,841
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:59am Mar 11, 2011 7:59am
Thank you pres78 and tgwhbb!

Quoting pres78
ND is an upbar the one you marked is a downbar and would be a NS... Also you can have a ND appear on a retrace during a downmove and does not have to only appear on an upmove... Many times a ND will appear on a confirmed moved down and will give a second chance entry.

Also for ND and NS bars it is nicer when they close closer to the middle but a narrow spread, really low volume bar in the right place is tradeable if in the right spot.
  • #15,842
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:04am Mar 11, 2011 8:04am
Thanks!

Quoting willkohsg
ND on M10 EURUSD break below 1.3965 for safe short...
  • #15,843
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:08am Mar 11, 2011 8:08am
Looks like we just had a test down to 1.376 that was bought and the hourly closed at a high, albeit a wick bar, meaning indecision at the very least. Break of an interim trendline, but if we do head up, I think the DPP at 1.383 and earlier high above that forms formidable resistance. US markets set to open soon but down based on all the risk-off, I expect this EU/GU run up to be short-lived; not seeing impact from Saudi Arabia's rage-day, with the lack of footage footage aspect. Market sensitivity to the extraordinary events today will be huge.

EDIT: Tricky trading, no doubt - 9:15am NY M15 bar close got hit with sellers right @ 1.396 - 1.38/381 remain key barriers.
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  • #15,844
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:08am Mar 11, 2011 8:08am
Quoting willkohsg
ND on M10 EURUSD break below 1.3965 for safe short...
continue on.. price moved higher but we know it's selling volume cos next M10 bar can down..

higher volume up bar but nxt bar down..
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  • #15,845
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:09am Mar 11, 2011 8:09am
Quoting Oxford
Thanks!
Careful we have moved away from the ND...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,846
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:10am Mar 11, 2011 8:10am
Quoting willkohsg
continue on.. price moved higher but we know it's selling volume cos next M10 bar can down..

higher volume up bar but nxt bar down..
Bar hasn't close yet had it? Still heading up ATM...

Edit... that bar closed up and didn't break the low of the ND... based on 2 bar rule that ND is now invalid.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,847
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:40am Mar 11, 2011 8:40am
Long at 3790 off low vol 5min test of 3785... SL tight at 3775... TP 1 hit, TP 2 moved to BE will let it ride...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,848
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:43am Mar 11, 2011 8:43am
Quoting pres78
Long at 3790 off low vol 5min test of 3785... SL tight at 3775... TP 1 hit, TP 2 moved to BE will let it ride...
Youve beet me by 2 pips.
  • #15,849
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:06am Mar 11, 2011 9:06am
Quoting pres78
Long at 3790 off low vol 5min test of 3785... SL tight at 3775... TP 1 hit, TP 2 moved to BE will let it ride...
PA at yesterdays POC now (1.3820ish) - I'm looking for it to punch through or entering a short on rejection of this level.

Edit: crosshairs show where my order is. Check the high volume and no real follow through - I see it going down from here. As always, if I'm wrong and it continues up then I'll not be in yet and can re-evaluate my position.
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  • #15,850
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:11am Mar 11, 2011 9:11am
Quoting Steve Gill
PA at yesterdays POC now (1.3820ish) - I'm looking for it to punch through or entering a short on rejection of this level.
We saw a lot of strength below 3800 Steve. I don't know if we could drop to far if the buyer are still absorbing there.
  • #15,851
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:11am Mar 11, 2011 9:11am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Youve beet me by 2 pips.
What are you targeting?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,852
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:14am Mar 11, 2011 9:14am
Quoting Sonofsin5
We saw a lot of strength below 3800 Steve. I don't know if we could drop to far if the buyer are still absorbing there.
Some strength but not enough IMHO - check the future volumes on the hourly compared to the last few days.
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  • #15,853
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:17am Mar 11, 2011 9:17am
Quoting pres78
Long at 3790 off low vol 5min test of 3785... SL tight at 3775... TP 1 hit, TP 2 moved to BE will let it ride...
Your entry was high of the doji? Right? Why did you disregard previously seen supply coming in and UT and nd after UT. I know that short didn't materialize because UT really wasn'y confirmed yet. But why long then right after weakness signs? Because it was the area where previously was seen weakness?

I myself was waiting for short setup.
  • #15,854
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:20am Mar 11, 2011 9:20am
Quoting pres78
What are you targeting?
Ive been waiting for a 3840 break to enter long yesterday, now we should breach that for stops. I will reevaluate after we breach. For now stop +5
  • #15,855
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:34am Mar 11, 2011 9:34am
someone noticed there's a gap up in EU?
could it be pushing through supply?

Will wait for trend reversal.
  • #15,856
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:36am Mar 11, 2011 9:36am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Ive been waiting for a 3840 break to enter long yesterday, now we should breach that for stops. I will reevaluate after we breach. For now stop +5
anyone else seeing similar volume right at the day's high? 5M 2-bar reversal followed by ND. Not sure if its just my broker that shows the gap that has been unable to be filled so far...
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Change is the only constant
  • #15,857
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:36am Mar 11, 2011 9:36am
Quoting ivonivon
someone noticed there's a gap up in EU?
could it be pushing through supply?

Will wait for trend reversal.
Its possible, test is now what I'm waiting for and on the 5 min it looks like we have had a low volume low spread bar closing off its low at 3827. That little guy is an important bar now as I dont want to see price come below that.
  • #15,858
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:42am Mar 11, 2011 9:42am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Your entry was high of the doji? Right? Why did you disregard previously seen supply coming in and UT and nd after UT. I know that short didn't materialize because UT really wasn'y confirmed yet. But why long then right after weakness signs? Because it was the area where previously was seen weakness?

I myself was waiting for short setup.
I didn't see weakness I saw demand coming back in and a test at a level I have been eyeing since yesterday. Low risk, 15pip stop.

Red lines left to right...

1. Possible demand coming in
2. Upbar confirming some demand entered

Also points 1 and 2 made a HL

3. I assume this is the upthrust you mention... volume is not super high and we close right on that 4hr trigger
4. Increased vol upbar closed above trigger... it did close off it's high so I was curious whther supply coming in or testing for supply? Low volume ND or showing lack of supply on test... upthrusts in this type of position where not into new high (nothing seen to the left) tend to get tested
5. This bar went down below trigger on low volume and closed above on it's high... this was my test and entry
6. Not marked but the very next pin bar was a higher volume test confirming buyers as it closed on it's high

May not be right or agreed to by all but this is why I entered long and not short... Had we approched and printed that upthrust / test or ND below the trigger I would have been looking short.

Also upon entry I was back above the hull and PAL... Buyers tried this level once and came back to test and see if supply was present... none was found and they pushed back up.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,859
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:42am Mar 11, 2011 9:42am
Eur
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  • #15,860
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:42am Mar 11, 2011 9:42am
Quoting Steve Gill
PA at yesterdays POC now (1.3820ish) - I'm looking for it to punch through or entering a short on rejection of this level.

Edit: crosshairs show where my order is. Check the high volume and no real follow through - I see it going down from here. As always, if I'm wrong and it continues up then I'll not be in yet and can re-evaluate my position.
Moved my order up after SOW at the 1.3830 to 1.3840 level IMHO.

On shaky ground as we're above yesterday's POC but the SM don't seem committed to pushing through here.
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