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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,821
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:53am Mar 11, 2011 4:53am
1.3650 is the VAL two weeks ago. Let's wait.

Quoting SimpleDev
Think Malc was on the money when he said that 3670 would be tested. I see some decent resistance at 3650, not great but it may be enough to cause the next rally.

I think that this week was just testing for bears, maybe next week we can see a break out.
  • #15,822
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:06am Mar 11, 2011 5:06am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Trying this 5 min thing on a demo today.
It’s all in a picture (so it would be better to follow). If someone has comments, like better entry, tp, sl or maybe too risky trade, etc., feel free to share.
Very nice analysis
Where you have "more weakness" circle, the next bar is also a DB closing lower than that low of the up bar, confirming weakness. Good trade dude, spot on the money..
  • #15,823
  • Edited 5:43am Mar 11, 2011 5:33am | Edited 5:43am
Something happend with the charting provider. I got highest volume of the day on last up candle on 5 min and daily candle looks like a doji now. Crap.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 5 min.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #15,824
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:11am Mar 11, 2011 6:11am
Still looking for shorts - no signs of strength here IMO. Ideally a retrace up to 1.3809 would be nice - but not sure if it will get there.

As mentioned above I missed the trade I really wanted, so no point in rushing in now. I think US open will be the decider - I'm predicting a retrace up to low 1.38s before crashing again. Otherwise the short would be too high risk for me - so I'm out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e 15M 11th Mar.jpg Size: 228 KB
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  • #15,825
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:17am Mar 11, 2011 6:17am
Looking at the 8 hour (the bar has just under 2 hours to go) this would be a lovely test on really low volume if the bar closed higher IMHO. And notice the lovely lack of interest in trying to break the POC on the previous bar (asia session).

However, I don't think it will be a test, because if the SM was bullish they would be buying to raise the price without fear of supply coming in, and looking at the 15 minute we can see they aren't - I don't think they are bullish enough to be testing yet.

In other words, we should see clear sign of strength, before a successful test to confirm. So Steve, stop nattering on about tests lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e 8h 11th mar.jpg Size: 206 KB
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  • #15,826
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:18am Mar 11, 2011 6:18am
Quoting pres78
Yes well thankfully I wanted to get a test down lower in the 3785 area or above 3830-3840... We got a pre LO SO type move down and then the first hr of London took it up but not on great volume and we never got a good strong move above the 3830-3840 area to allow for a test down into it...

Can you share a chart of the test you mention and what does 6EM stand for?

I was able to get in short however 10 mins after that first London 1hr bar closed weak in my eyes... Nice ND that hit it's high right on the DPP and the 5 min trigger bars close......
Closed out lot 2 at 3780 ... this move up looks weak ATM but will be in and out of meetings this morning so I am out and flat now... no more trades until next week.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,827
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:27am Mar 11, 2011 6:27am
Quoting pres78
This was simply an end of day observation made that was based on the attached chart. Now since that I did agree with Sono that a test into the 3830/3840 zone or for me even back down into this same 3785 trigger zone would be the safest entries to go long and further confirmation.

Left to right red lines show times when high volume bars hit the level 3785 with either their H/L or C... the furthest to the left is the second highest spread and vol bar this year for me... This shows me some vol interest at this level...

Now the last bar yesterday...
Well my contrarian view didn't work out... looked good for a bit after that pre LO SO but then the first hour of London ended up being a weak move up... typical LO fake out. We got up to 3840 but never strongly above to allow for a test down into it... Will still watch for a test or SO into the 3785 zone if it happens to emerge today or early next week.

That is why when you see a possible sign of strength one must not act upon it immediatley until we have a background to match... Although I could have grabbed 50+ pips had I traded the break of this test bar to today's high ... being an end of day candle on reduced trading volume though there was just no trust in it's validness...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,828
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:34am Mar 11, 2011 6:34am
I'm considering shorts now unless we see some renewed interest in pushing up to the 1.3830 area. The last 15M bar was met with supply - they aren't going to fight this.

Edit: added chart, highlighted what I'm talking about
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e 15M 11th mar v2.jpg Size: 239 KB
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  • #15,829
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:43am Mar 11, 2011 6:43am
Considering the same. The whole upmove until now has seen overall low volume.

Quoting Steve Gill
I'm considering shorts now unless we see some renewed interest in pushing up to the 1.3830 area. The last 15M bar was met with supply - they aren't going to fight this.

Edit: added chart, highlighted what I'm talking about
  • #15,830
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:44am Mar 11, 2011 6:44am
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm considering shorts now unless we see some renewed interest in pushing up to the 1.3830 area. The last 15M bar was met with supply - they aren't going to fight this.
There was a volume increase on that bar for sure but need to see a downbar next to confirm that it was in fact selling and not absorbing... and look where it closed right around that 3785 4hr trigger level... HMM more volume at this level... look at the 15min downbar opposite to the last close 15min... mirror image coming from above on increased vol closing off it's lows but then next bar was down on what appeared to be at least temporary stopping volume... upmove has been weak back towards this level though so I would like to see a ND or low vol upthrust test into it to get back in short.

2 red lines mark the bars and volumes moving into this 4hr trigger level... The upbar was on increased vol in comparision but lower than the last time we hit this level... had that bar closed lower I would have traded the break of it's low as a test. Waiting for a confirmed set-up before shorting anything.
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,831
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:48am Mar 11, 2011 6:48am
Hey Pipper...

Wasn't sure how to attach this to a PM so I am attaching here.

This is my ADR indicator seen on the bottom right of my home trading chart window as requested.

Not shown at work as it takes up to much room on my minimized trading window.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 PREZ Range.ex4   29 KB | 350 downloads
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,832
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:12am Mar 11, 2011 7:12am
Quoting Steve Gill
I'm considering shorts now unless we see some renewed interest in pushing up to the 1.3830 area. The last 15M bar was met with supply - they aren't going to fight this.

Edit: added chart, highlighted what I'm talking about
Steve have a look at your 10m, also 30m looks like a nd
  • #15,833
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:15am Mar 11, 2011 7:15am
Quoting pete148
Steve have a look at your 10m
Tread lightly, news in 15mins...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,834
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:19am Mar 11, 2011 7:19am
Can someone tell me whether the marked candle a ND is? We've weakness in the background but I'm not sure as we're not at the very top of the recent upmove.

Thank you for your answer!
Ox
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUM5Q1.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #15,835
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:27am Mar 11, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Oxford
Can someone tell me whether the marked candle a ND is? We've weakness in the background but I'm not sure as we're not at the very top of the recent upmove.

Thank you for your answer!
Ox
ND is an upbar the one you marked is a downbar and would be a NS... Also you can have a ND appear on a retrace during a downmove and does not have to only appear on an upmove... Many times a ND will appear on a confirmed moved down and will give a second chance entry.

Also for ND and NS bars it is nicer when they close closer to the middle but a narrow spread, really low volume bar in the right place is tradeable if in the right spot.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,836
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:27am Mar 11, 2011 7:27am
Quoting polomine
Hi Intel,

I'm afraid I can not do that, since it needs MT4 software support. As far as I know, MT4 doesn't support SMS yet.
The solution would be in sending an email message of less than 160 characters to the email-to-SMS gateway that most (all?) cellphone providers have in place - here's just a sample list:http://www.makeuseof.com/tag/email-to-sms/
  • #15,837
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:27am Mar 11, 2011 7:27am
Quoting Oxford
Can someone tell me whether the marked candle a ND is? We've weakness in the background but I'm not sure as we're not at the very top of the recent upmove.

Thank you for your answer!
Ox
that would be considered a no supply, but it is in the wrong place. 3 bars before that is the ND.
Change is the only constant
  • #15,838
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:35am Mar 11, 2011 7:35am
Quoting ivonivon
OIL 30" seems to be a perfect set up for going short.

Downtrend market, upthrust, accompanied by no demand bar confirmed by downbars.
easy trade for oil.
closed at 100.
  • #15,839
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:51am Mar 11, 2011 7:51am
ND on M10 EURUSD break below 1.3965 for safe short...
Attached Image
  • #15,840
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:56am Mar 11, 2011 7:56am
Quoting pete148
Steve have a look at your 10m, also 30m looks like a nd
Sorry I missed this - which bar were you talking about?
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