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  • #621
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:08am Mar 9, 2011 12:08am
Quoting PeterE
any thoughts on shorting 0.9383ish??
i doubt i will but some discussion might clarify
My 5cents worth if u don't mind

On the 4hourly chart, there seems to be an inverted h&s formation. A small one, but its max. target could be 9773, the whole of the previous down move.

Besides even if that inverted H&S is not strong, the downside potential is limited, with the upside potential very big. A short could be dangerous and unrewarding.

Fundamentally, anytime the Libya crisis ease up, safe haven would leave CHF, potentially allowing USD to recover from this dip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #622
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:13am Mar 9, 2011 12:13am
thanks for your input Ken

yes the downside target on UCh is a mere +50, counter-trend, but i'll probably leave this one alone


Quoting ken_wongyl
My 5cents worth if u don't mind

Fundamentally, anytime the Libya crisis ease up, safe haven would leave CHF, potentially allowing USD to recover from this dip.
  • #623
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:18am Mar 9, 2011 12:18am
as i write i'm wondering if AUDCAD (0.9770ish), EURCAD (1.3460ish), & GBPCAD (1.5670ish) have each reached support,

if they dont i suspect they will "enthusiastically" move down from these prices

...........thinking out loud
  • #624
  • Mar 9, 2011 1:56am Mar 9, 2011 1:56am
Quoting PeterE
as i write i'm wondering if AUDCAD (0.9770ish), EURCAD (1.3460ish), & GBPCAD (1.5670ish) have each reached support,
if they dont i suspect they will "enthusiastically" move down from these prices

...........thinking out loud
I was just about to write this myself. Woke up this morning to find support trying to form on the daily chart. It might even have showed up properly on the lower timeframes
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #625
  • Mar 9, 2011 2:09am Mar 9, 2011 2:09am
mis-calculated the short price on this one

Quoting PeterE
any thoughts on shorting 0.9383ish??
i doubt i will but some discussion might clarify
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #626
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:27am Mar 9, 2011 7:27am
Quoting golferfx
One I'm also watching...for now sitting on my hands till further proof of the "trend change."


Watch out for arrows in the air.



golferfx
I have started to look out for those arrows. still get caught by one or two though but it is better than the twenties or thirties before I started this thread

Thanks again

BBO
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #627
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:36am Mar 9, 2011 7:36am
Quoting PeterE
mis-calculated the short price on this one



.
The charts have spoken. It definitely was a sell. But your limit sell would not have been filled. The markets are crazy at the moment.

I really chose a 'good' time to develop my position holding skills
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #628
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:44am Mar 9, 2011 7:44am
Last night I did a metatrader report of my trades for march. The following was what I noticed

I had 3 times more shorts than longs
I have traded more than my feb trades comparatively
I have had more losing trades than winning trades so far
Still up for the month (only just!! according to my standards) though because of position sizing and one or two big pip profit trades compared to lots of stop outs and small pip winnings

Personally I have entered trades where later I have doubted to prognosis of the trade.

So this guy here is a work in progress as we all are. But putting it out makes me accountable to all who read this thread. Also it is a comfort to some in a screwy way that this happens to us all

We live to battle on...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #629
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:53am Mar 9, 2011 7:53am
Sorry guys I keep bringing us back to this pair

The 100sma is providing a solid barrier to the ascent of this pair. If we close above it it will explode upwards imho. However right now I am bearish. I am long term bearish of the stock market Dow30 whose movement correlates with this pair's movement. A sell is in order here imho

Price below 100smsa
Forceful rejection
Double top on the 4hr (although breakdown candle has not closed yet)

Comments please
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #630
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:02am Mar 9, 2011 8:02am
I have uploaded a weekly chart with the 13 34 ema and the macd. It can be observed that we are in an entrenched downtrend. The problem a trader would have is where to enter in order not to suffer a serious pullback when it does happen. We have had a pullback and we are trying to re-assert the downtrend

According to the weekly chart perhaps a weekly close below the 13ema could be a good entry?

Comments?
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #631
  • Mar 9, 2011 8:19am Mar 9, 2011 8:19am
Quoting golferfx
The weekly close will show us the way on eurnzd.

I would like to see a cross of the ma's first then a bounce off of the ma's to signal a long.

I will be looking to go long with risk at 3% and hold for long term pips.


good hunting,

golferfx
Resisting the temptation to jump in now...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #632
  • Mar 9, 2011 11:43am Mar 9, 2011 11:43am
Today is the reason why position trading pays. If you are playing for the long term you would be coasting now. There is so much volatility but the market is not going anywhere - sometimes usual daily range but forming dojis

BTW Dow has just formed a doji on the hourly. A doji at resistance area (12250) might be significant.

The euro is also reversing earlier strength...

This two facts play well into my bearish eurchf, eurusd, gbpusd and audusd scenario. To paraphares we have temporary resurgence in the dollar index.

It has been a while since I checked out the dollar index chart I will post one soon
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #633
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:00pm Mar 9, 2011 12:00pm
The dollar is enjoying a brief renaissance after breaking to new lows recently. It is trying to attack the previous breakdown point. Is this move going to be a lasting one?
Will this move lead to some commodities coming off their lofty highs (sugar, crude and grains)? Only time will tell...

We wait...patiently... hard though... but worth it in the end

Golferfx - no arrows
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #634
  • Mar 9, 2011 2:17pm Mar 9, 2011 2:17pm
it is easy to have a profitable week here and there, but for most the profits will eventually be offset by loses, and worse

for me it has been a humbling experience , as i attempt to build week-to-week consistency (and maturity!!) into my trading

so yes, a work in progress


Quoting Olu
So this guy here is a work in progress as we all are. But putting it out makes me accountable to all who read this thread. Also it is a comfort to some in a screwy way that this happens to us all

We live to battle on...
  • #635
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:42pm Mar 9, 2011 4:42pm
Quoting Olu
Resisting the temptation to jump in now...








  • #636
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:47pm Mar 9, 2011 5:47pm
As you know the hardest part in trading is not the entry exit or anything like that. It is the trader psychology. Mine shows up in double-mindedness. I get into a trade and 3 hours later see a doji or something or some reason to exit it whether it is in profit or not. And here I am learning to trade long term.

I am with you on the consistency front. I had hundreds of strategies and I have now boiled them down to 3. You have the MLs that work for you. These are the three filters in which I look at the markets. All three are long term and use the daily or weekly charts as their basis.

I am partly happy with my progress since the beginning of this thread. And like you I have been humbled by the markets and my impulsiveness sometimes.

I want to trade less but earn more and raise my %wins and %profitability ratios. So we will not grow weary but battle on
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #637
  • Mar 9, 2011 10:11pm Mar 9, 2011 10:11pm
-10, this set-up is now 50/50 for me = exit

Quoting PeterE
any arguments against B. 1.3463ish EURCAD??

-6, red flag news encourages tight stops

Quoting PeterE
B. 0.9776........close monitoring.
  • #638
  • Edited 2:36am Mar 10, 2011 2:12am | Edited 2:36am
S. 1.0043, takers?

edit: cancel due to pending news
  • #639
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:18am Mar 10, 2011 2:18am
I put up an argument about a resurgence in the us$ and because of that took a closer look at the euro. The timing turned out to be blessed as this spain downgrade fundamental played righr into it.

Currently sitting profitably on the euro trade
Also put on a gbpchf short which is negative at the moment. the argument was that risk would go out of the market and the chf crossed would go down. That is happening but not with the gbpchf because of an announcement that will come out today
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #640
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:19am Mar 10, 2011 2:19am
Quoting PeterE
S. 1.0043, takers?
No takers here. I am looking to go short on a rebound
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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