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Anyone else going round in circles?

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 8, 2011 9:01am Mar 8, 2011 9:01am
I've been researching trading on and off for a few years. Less more recently than I have in the past, mainly as I feel I'm going round in circles and have just absorbed to much. When I started looking it was "where do I start" I must have read everything on Babypips & similar sites twice, yet I still do not feel that I could actively trade. Had a few demo accounts, some did well, some didn't etc so just feel like I'm going round in circles. Does anyone else feel like that? By the way, I'm not talking about going round in circles to 2 months...Look at my join date
  • #2
  • Mar 8, 2011 9:55am Mar 8, 2011 9:55am
Are you sure trading is really for you?
Usually people find something that works for them and learn what they can bring in from other methods to enhance their own.
If you're suffering from information overload and trying to apply too many things at once to your trading plan, step back for a moment and simplify. Throwing a ton of indicators on a chart is more likely to confuse you and make you hesitant of pulling the trigger. Maybe you need to simplify your strategy until you find what works for you.
  • #3
  • Mar 8, 2011 10:06am Mar 8, 2011 10:06am
i was like you when i initially start. What you need to do is throw away all indictors and tools you use. Focus on one at a time until you find one that suits your trading style. Do not overload yourself with too much information. In the end, you can work without any indicator and trade purely with a candle-stick chart and lines. (i did that and it works, but not longer using it because i discovered a better system, and you need to spend time to discover your own system as well)
  • #4
  • Mar 8, 2011 10:32am Mar 8, 2011 10:32am
Quoting magictiger
Are you sure trading is really for you?
Usually people find something that works for them and learn what they can bring in from other methods to enhance their own.
Oh really? So usually people find something that works for them... I guess that explain why 95% fail... or?

To the OP... I know how you feel I've been there many times and its usually at that point if I press a bit further I discover something new. The main thing is that at least you can acknowledge your going in circles. It can be frustrating I know, you just need to take a step back and see the forest for the trees.

Do something crazy try something different, search yourself for ideas and get your head out of the charts for a while. Think about trading away from your computer, the charts can be mind numbing. Ask yourself over and over why most people get beaten and and a few make it. Question everything, take your time, search yourself, re assess what exactly it is you're doing and what you are trying to achieve.
Time hides Nothing
  • #5
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:27pm Mar 8, 2011 1:27pm
[quote=magictiger;4455256]Are you sure trading is really for you?
quote]

I'll let you know when I make it or break it

Thanks Cindy/katongogo good advice
  • #6
  • Edited 3:54pm Mar 8, 2011 3:38pm | Edited 3:54pm
this is exactly how i feel right now, been following stuff, on and off for 3-4 years now, i feel like i'm not any better off than making a random choice as to buy/sell. I get discouraged on demo as soon as i lose money and step away from demo trading for a week or two as soon as that happens.

I want to get rid of indicators, i was initially fascinated by them but i'm trying to trade now using price and channels and i'm not doing any better.

I want to commit to demo trading for a solid 2 months (i've never done more than a week or two straight over these 3 years because of the losing part) but I just don't know what to commit to for the two months as i have such a personality that if the 2 months is a complete waste of time (i don't make money) i'm going to be completely bummed out.

Thankfully i'm in no position to be needing an income from this at the moment as i'm a student living at home but i do really like this (after all, all i've put in is time and even though i haven't lost money, the inability to figure "it" out, has really gotten to me). I just need some guidance, there is too much information out there and especially for people like me and the OP i feel like i don't really know what is important anymore and what to focus on. My style is not crazy gains but lets say 3-4%/month initially (higher as i get better) yet i have failed to devise a way to do even this.
  • #7
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:53pm Mar 8, 2011 3:53pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Oh really? So usually people find something that works for them... I guess that explain why 95% fail... or?
Ok, fair enough, I tend to forget that there are people who can't turn a profit with this. So how about this instead: The people I talk to who trade profitably found something that worked for them.

Persistence pays off, and that may be why the 95% number seems so high to those of us who just "get it". I think most of the 95% try it and give up immediately. Those of us in the 5% (I really think it HAS to be higher than that, honestly) are the ones who have kept after it and probably blew up our first couple accounts while learning until we found our niche.
  • #8
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:52pm Mar 8, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting magictiger
Ok, fair enough, I tend to forget that there are people who can't turn a profit with this. So how about this instead: The people I talk to who trade profitably found something that worked for them.

Persistence pays off, and that may be why the 95% number seems so high to those of us who just "get it". I think most of the 95% try it and give up immediately. Those of us in the 5% (I really think it HAS to be higher than that, honestly) are the ones who have kept after it and probably blew up our first couple accounts while learning until we found...
Persistence it is! I blew many accounts in order to find my golden system. It doesn't come in a month or two. It took me 5 years (maybe i'm a bit slow, but i never gave up and i finally find my golden system after 5 years of trial and error) . But i also feel that 5% is a bit low.
  • #9
  • Edited 10:43pm Mar 8, 2011 10:07pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting magictiger
Those of us in the 5% (I really think it HAS to be higher than that, honestly) are the ones who have kept after it and probably blew up our first couple accounts while learning until we found our niche.
I used to think this as well but after being humbled so many times I can see why LONG TERM (being the key word here) trading is very difficult for a technical trader. Over a 5 year period I think the 95 figure would actually be higher. Over less than a year I think it would be much lower. Over 3 months or less I would be so bold as to say 50% fail and 50% succeed. It a matter of market cycles
Time hides Nothing
  • #10
  • Mar 8, 2011 10:12pm Mar 8, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting staffpro

I want to commit to demo trading for a solid 2 months (i've never done more than a week or two straight over these 3 years because of the losing part) but I just don't know what to commit to for the two months as i have such a personality that if the 2 months is a complete waste of time (i don't make money) i'm going to be completely bummed out.
This attitude will crush you. You need to forget the money and focus on learning your craft, then the money will follow. It won't be a waste of time no matter what the resulkt the main thing is you stuck at something for an extended period of time in order to make a reliable judgment about what you were doing.

What if you made copius amounts of money in that 2 months but were simply lucky... You have made money but do you think this is progress or just false hope? When you decide to go live becasue of these "lucky" results you're in for a massive humbling when the market shows your method to be something other than what you first thought.

Focus on trading well, and the money following rather than the other way around.

All imo of course
Time hides Nothing
  • #11
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:52am Mar 9, 2011 12:52am
Quoting Kwackers
I've been researching trading on and off for a few years. Less more recently than I have in the past, mainly as I feel I'm going round in circles and have just absorbed to much. When I started looking it was "where do I start" I must have read everything on Babypips & similar sites twice, yet I still do not feel that I could actively trade. Had a few demo accounts, some did well, some didn't etc so just feel like I'm going round in circles. Does anyone else feel like that? By the way, I'm not talking about going round in circles to 2 months...Look...
Your problem is that you rely on information from the internet. 99% of that information doesn't work when applied (in trading).
First they tell you to focus on indicators, later you learn that they are all bullcrap and you should use price action only. Then you find out that this also doesn't work consistently, then people tell you to focus on trading psychology. Or trying to just trade one system and make it your own....

Guess what, it doesn't work that way. Indicators just show you the RESULT of price action. And price action just shows you the RESULT of trading decisions. They are not the cause, but the result.
If you then later try to statistically verify indicators or price action patterns, you will find out that they are not better then pure chance. Take the famous pin bar. Looks good on the charts, but there is some scientific research that they don't work consistently.
And my opinion on trading psychology goes against the mainstream here on ff. I just think it is plain bogus to work on that. The market doesn't care which personality you have.
The same thing applies to making a system your own. If a system doesn't exploit an edge of the market, you will never ever make any money.

You think when humans first tried to build an airplane, they sticked to old concepts with which they already failed previously? Or did they actually try to understand what it takes to make an object fly and change their previous concepts until they finally got a design which can fly?

Solution: do rigorous research, read up on statistics & trade on the causes for trading decisions, not results.

And finally, stop looking for trading info on ff or the internet, you won't find anything which will contribute to your profitability.
  • #12
  • Edited 1:47am Mar 9, 2011 1:29am | Edited 1:47am
A good topic and some very nice replys.

As aspiring traders we almost all make the same mistakes. The ones that succeed just never give up. My personal motivation was, "if others can do it so can I".

Custos is WRONG to say stop looking on forums and the internet. Forums like this are exactly the place you need to look.

Look for people that know how to trade and BEG them to teach you. Do your own due dilligence then offer to pay them if necessary. Maybe I got lucky but I did my homework and got one of the best way back in 2006. Even then It still took me years to realise his was the right way to trade and then overcome my own fear and greed gremlins.

Notice how most of the sucessful traders use almost naked charts using just SR to trade with. There are some fantastic traders about, Blackeagle, JHIG, BRV, Trader Dante, PeterFM, Strat, BabaG to name just a few.

There are plenty of other incredibly clever shorter term traders on here too, Islander, Medici, Vantage, Nice Guy and Eyevoltage to name a few that I admire greatly. They use a multitude of methods, ma's, fibs, round numbers and pivots etc, me, I just prefer plain candles, trend and momentum. Find what works for you.

My mentor was a short term trader, m15/h4 and he was happy to call trades live and talk us through them as they happened, that is a must IMHO.

Take a break if necessary but never give up. Good Luck.
  • #13
  • Mar 9, 2011 1:36am Mar 9, 2011 1:36am
Quoting Custos

Solution: do rigorous research, read up on statistics & trade on the causes for trading decisions, not results.

And finally, stop looking for trading info on ff or the internet, you won't find anything which will contribute to your profitability.
well i'm going back to the basics, i'm reading Trading and Exchanges: Market micro-structure for practitioners, so that has a whole chapter about trading decisions...

I'm also making a list of what i like for example any time i have come across strategies with multiple entries or some kind of averaging i have enjoyed and felt like i didn't waste time.

So hopefully im going in the right direction. I dont have a mentor, don't know where to find one, i wish i did.
  • #14
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:45am Mar 9, 2011 4:45am
Quoting staffpro
well i'm going back to the basics, i'm reading Trading and Exchanges: Market micro-structure for practitioners, so that has a whole chapter about trading decisions...

I'm also making a list of what i like for example any time i have come across strategies with multiple entries or some kind of averaging i have enjoyed and felt like i didn't waste time.

So hopefully im going in the right direction. I dont have a mentor, don't know where to find one, i wish i did.
I’m sorry, but you’re definitely continuing to be running in the wrong direction.

My experience tells me that it is often the messenger who gets crucified rather than the culprit. The problem is that in the land of the blind, even the one eyed man is a king.

Give me one good reason to actually believe you that you’re committed to becoming a trader, and I might consider opening a thread for you to help you.

Same applies for Kwackers.

Magictiger might actually be right, trading might not be for some people.
  • #15
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:51am Mar 9, 2011 4:51am
Quoting jag1966
Custos is WRONG to say stop looking on forums and the internet. Forums like this are exactly the place you need to look.
sure, if you wanna get misled by people who have absolutely no clue about trading and are just good at rhetorics, then just look around at the 10+v people. They got lots of experience in talking on forums.

if 95% are really losers, then that equally applies to this forum. Finding the 5% who are successful is a really difficult task, cause everybody screams: "I am profitable - no, I am - god, I made this really awesome trade yesterday - look, I am the king". When in fact all they do is post trades in hindsight, and of course only the profitable ones.

In the end this forum is nothing more than the blind leading the blind and all of them are sitting on a cliff and falling down one by one.

Only if you really do the research required, you will grow a pair of functioning eyes and find your way to profitability.
  • #16
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:09am Mar 9, 2011 5:09am
Quoting Custos
sure, if you wanna get misled by people who have absolutely no clue about trading and are just good at rhetorics, then just look around at the 10+v people. They got lots of experience in talking on forums.

if 95% are really losers, then that equally applies to this forum. Finding the 5% who are successful is a really difficult task, cause everybody screams: "I am profitable - no, I am - god, I made this really awesome trade yesterday - look, I am the king". When in fact all they do is post trades in hindsight, and of course only the profitable...
Do yourself a favour and open your eyes, stop being so negative and stop assuming you are the only person who has a clue. People can read between the lines for themselves. This forum is a fine place to start.

Repeat that 10,000 time and statistcally you just might get it.
  • #17
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:00am Mar 9, 2011 6:00am
I think in the end weather the people on this forum are successful or not has nothing to do with what you can learn from them.

Everyone with experience has their own bits of wisdom. If you're looking for someone to show you how to trade then of course chances are that whoever shows you is unprofitable themselves, but every person will one day reach the point where they can think for themselves and take what they want without blindly following what they're told.

I think in a way you're (jag and custos) both right it just depends on how you want to look at it. I have often claimed the uselessness of forums in the past but in the end most of what I know or aspire to know has originated from this forum alone in one way or the other. It might just be a sentence by someone who gets you thinking down a line you never really thought of before.

In the end I developed my own methods which have nothing to do with any specific methods I learn t here but that doesn't mean this place offers me nothing of value.

If you're getting led by the blind then you're prob just not ready to go it alone in the first place. You will fail and you will hopefully learn and move on until you can walk your own path and sought the wheat from the chaff. Its just the natural cycle of things.

As for Vouches... heh lets just not go there. They're irrelevant really, we all know that.
Time hides Nothing
  • #18
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:54am Mar 9, 2011 6:54am
Quoting jag1966
Do yourself a favour and open your eyes, stop being so negative and stop assuming you are the only person who has a clue. People can read between the lines for themselves. This forum is a fine place to start.

Repeat that 10,000 time and statistcally you just might get it.
I am not saying that I am the only one with a clue, but jumping around from system to system and advice to advice in the forum won't help dealing with the problem of unprofitability. Cause you have the really big problem of not knowing who gives the advice, a profitable person or an unprofitable person? How do you know? You can't, except if he/she gives you a notarized bank statement.
Yes, the forum is a good start, but it's definitely not the end. It's just a start. The end should be personal research of trading and relying not anymore on opinions or methods of others.

Well, and maybe you can a bit back off from getting personal. Only because we disagree on something, you don't need to bash me or proper scientific methods.
  • #19
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:15am Mar 9, 2011 7:15am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I think in the end weather the people on this forum are successful or not has nothing to do with what you can learn from them.

Everyone with experience has their own bits of wisdom. If you're looking for someone to show you how to trade then of course chances are that whoever shows you is unprofitable themselves, but every person will one day reach the point where they can think for themselves and take what they want without blindly following what they're told.

I think in a way you're (jag and custos) both right it just depends on how you want...
Great post. There is a lot of good information on here. It just needs to be condensed down.

I will keep reading up on stats, tech/fund trading and so on. I've never been a big fan of indicators but I still want to look at them as they may help me learn.

I'm not looking for anyone to tell me how to trade. If they were so successful I doubt they'd sell their time as they would be too busy trading, so I'd always feel skeptical.

Learning something new never hurts - it just helps to build a foundation for you to make your own decisions in my opinion...

so i'll just keep reading, demoing and try a few small accounts so I can throw some emotion in there

I think a lot of the reason I feel like this is because all I see is people trading a profit. I saw a post saying "post your losses" and guess how many people replied. The fact is, if they did reply, they'd probably find that the replies would be the best ones on FF. How many journals go for 3 months profitable, then all of a sudden they go dead. People like to post their profits but not their losses.

I'm going to start a journal soon. I am loaded with information, but like someone else mentioned, an indicator contradicts fundamental analysis, everything seems to contradict the other so that you can never make a good trade. I'm going to just strip it back and trade pretty naked, try some new things and see how I go.

For anyone that cares I opened a new account yesterday (demo) and made $633.00 on a $50,000 account from trades with no more risk than $200 generally (one was $356), although I ADMIT I Took profit before my limit twice, which is not going to work well in the long term

Thanks for all the replies.
  • #20
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:37am Mar 9, 2011 7:37am
Quoting Custos
And my opinion on trading psychology goes against the mainstream here on ff. I just think it is plain bogus to work on that. The market doesn't care which personality you have.
Let’s analyse this, without any implied intention to pick on you specifically, after all, lots of people share similar beliefs as you do. This is not about getting personal, but about learning from each other

What you wrote is your personal belief. As far as I know, belief is 100% psychological. So what you’re proposing is in essence a psychological paradox. However it serves as an illustration that every single one of us is actually trading not the market itself, but our own beliefs. Therefore trading is almost 100% psychological, apart from the physical activity that is involved in typing in the orders and clicking the mouse button.

When a person is designing a system, the system becomes a reflection of the trader’s beliefs and psychological biases. Market Wizards books are the best demonstrations of how each one of the world’s best traders believes in his own method. If they would be asked to swap their trading methods, then their results would suffer. Each trader needs a trading method that he is comfortable with. Isn’t this yet another proof of how actually critical role psychology plays in trading? Those who get it, understand why fundamental analysis is inferior to technical analysis.

And furthermore, those who are on the top of the trading game, understand that technical analysis is inferior in comparison with own’s mental analysis. This thread is an example of how studying the markets and technical analysis without making the shift to mental analysis results in going round in circle, as the name of this thread suggests.

Though convincing someone otherwise is often futile, because as Harry Palmer said; "I experience what I believe, unless I believe I won't, in which case I don't! Which means I did.”

Trade well
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