AUD/USD

Yeah I'd Say on that note my advice, don't ever, EVER go basing a trade on some article that speaks of fundamentals. Use it only as a guide to potentials, again DO NOT PLACE ANY TRADE EVER! These are the same talking heads that spoke of 200 dollar oil, usd/cad at 1.5, dow 1,000 and countless other failed "fundamental" views.

Reason: Simply put, unless you are prepared to sit there and eat a loss up to 1.05 Audusd then ride it down to .92 giving you an aproximate 2:1 reward IF this macro play plays out, you should stay out. This is a long term yearly play, if that's how you trade and want to risk being underwater -500 pips over 6 months, at say 1 dollar a pip, (or 10 dollars and risk losing 5k on the trade) or 10 cents, that's fine, but I'm guessing you are more of a day trader.

So in conclusion, don't do it, you won't learn much, you MAY make some money, but you could also lose a brickload, and the action will be played out in super slow motion over a year.

-algo fund trader, and also a former trader who lost his @ss multiple times following talking heads 5 years ago.

short target reached, long filled all around 1.0050

Nice trading Baron,i should have played the Aussie today.

to hold for the very top of the range means you believe the top will be tested/potential break out may happen. By definition or the word range/resistance, price has been rejected in that area multiple times. Better not to be greedy and exit as price approaches resistance. You can always re-enter later. Just my view, others may/do trade differently.

Regards,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...set-wages.html

When in doubt...re-enter

Welcome to the real world of trading FX Petra.
The word "could" or "maybe" or "should" or "assume"...is all part and parcel of the world of financial trading.
What happens with the markets, NOBODY knows...which is why you went to the dentist, placed your trade order & realised it got hit when you came back. This was an ASSUMPTION...you did NOT know, but you "assumed" there to be a chance it would be taken..this makes it a "gamble".
The whole forex arena is a gamble. NOT ONE person can surely state where we are headed. Hence, if you was sure, you would not close it for a mere 50-60 pips.

Whether you read articles or not, thats your call. When you find an article that can place with "certainty" on a statistical probability, then do let me know. If certainty is claimed in the article, then please do point where, cos i may have missed it! Do me a favour, if you have allergic reactions to reading articles which operate to the other side of your positioning, then just don't read them. Thats my tip...especially if its worth only a bucket of spit!!

If i read what you post, and decide to go long just because you have gone long, then that makes me stupid. If you suggest inexperienced traders method is...by reading your trades or mine and base their decisions on that alone...then they are most definitely stupid.
If your inexperienced, then first of all, you should not be trading..its as simple as that.
The fx market doesn't cater for the faint hearted..and once you've opened your trade, your boxed in a world on your own!

I for one, read all types of articles, and evaluate it myself, well before i jump to any conclusions. Once i jump to a conclusion, i do so on my own risk, not yours.
My strategy has served me well, on the basis that i do not close my positions for 50/60 pips...but for 100+ pips at the very least. Its only times where the markets is consistently moving within a 100 pip range, i close several times on that day.
My overall bias remains short, simply because i don't think that interest argument your presenting, is valid any more. The interest is a factor, but not the ONLY factor, hence all factors put together, believe we're in a bubble...which is why await the big fish at 0.9200 & below.

Lastly, any trader, whether your "inexperienced" or not, will know, the Level 4 target of 0.8600-0.8900-0.9200 is not a day traders target. If they don't and rely on someone to tell them...then its time they stopped trading.
Which is why i have no worries on my positions open at 1.0127, 1.0171 and at present am not looking to collect a mere 50/60 pips.
Good luck with your trading...i am more then happy with the way this currency pair is playing out...i am sure your happy with yours...and hopefully neither will have their arses given to them on a platter.

My target remains closer to 0.9000 & as always do your own research or else you may have no arse left.
Hope this helps

Nice sharing.

ely,

It's a free forum. Post whatever you like. I don't see any benefit from posting the articles. On the contrary, there could be harm for other traders (new ones). It seems you agree that no real significance should be attached to them. But if you enjoy the posts, then by all means post away. It dosen't cost anything.

BTW, your view is not really any different than mine. I will be short when the time is right for me. Picking tops of long term trends is not a strength of mine. Good trades to you!

Regards,

He he,
seems that other people are becoming tired of that lunatic, by now. "Ignore" button may do wonders for you, guys...

Ely, it's not WHAT you're saying, it's HOW you're saying it.
Posting all that shit to support your point of view is a bit ludicrous,
other than that it is a free forum and everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Good luck with your trading, the only test is making money.

thnx both ely and fx-petra. at least we could consider different views. hopefully there's nothing personal between you two.
have a good trade anyhow, might be a bit choppy on the way down (or up for that matter). Cheers!

No way! Ely has some good thoughts. I enjoy reading his posts as well as other traders here. Trading is, for the most part, boring. Boards like this help to pass the time and occasionally give some insight. I was just making a suggestion to Ely. He can take it or leave it, as he wishes.

Regards,

Trading is great, the best bit is, it even brings the genuine nobular jockeys crawling out of the toilet!

My advise to the toilets, don't read my posts, that would be genuinely appreciated. Like the toilet quoted above, there is a button you can press, which apparantly this toilet seems to have pressed a long time ago, but obviously can't help but come back for some Dr Ely's Loola updates

Have a read of this, it'l help you understand what happened when it hits 0.9000, & your stuck in a "Confirmation Toilet Bias" mode.
Sanksalot


How to Lose 2 Million Dollars Through Confirmation Bias
March 5th, 2011

"Of all the potential pitfalls and sins of investing, one of the most dangerous for an investor to fall victim to is confirmation bias."

http://www.robertsinn.com/2011/03/05...irmation-bias/

I like to post some shit to back my views...it save nobs like yourself, with respect, asking for the shit afterwards!
Like one of your nobs previously asked me to post a chart etc to back my view on the price target!

I really hope this helps, if not, its easier understood when, like the man said, "your arse is given to you on a platter by the market"!
Trust me, i've been doing this long enough to know, this is the best lesson the market eventually charges you for..

Hope this helps
Sanks
Target remains circa 0.9000 if the market lets you stay here long enough



07/03/2011

IG Markets research analyst Ben Potter is among those singling out the uncertainty for investors resulting from the mining tax, unveiled 10 months ago.
“At the time, there was lots of speculation the government would go after other sectors (to tax),” Mr Potter said.
In the aftermath of the dispute, “overseas investors don't like that we have minority government in power,” he said, referring to Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard's reliance on cross-benchers to retain government after the August election.Also, some global investors worry that China - Australia 's biggest trading partner - is going to have a hard landing, triggered by a property bubble popping there, dragging down commodity prices in the process.
“A lot of people think the Australian property market is a big problem as well,” Mr Potter said. “The fundamentals that support it just aren't sustainable.”
A report out last week by The Economist identified Australian property prices as the world's most over-priced, based on a long-run gauge of prices to rents.
“At the end of the day markets are cyclical,” he said. “And Australian property has been going up for the best part of 20 years.” "You've got to think it's been a pretty long bull market," Mr Potter said. “Australian banks have got massive exposure to the Australian property market.”

Austock senior client adviser Michael Heffernan cites worries about the original resources super-profit tax (RSPT) along with local interest rate rises for hobbling the recovery of Australian stocks.
“We were going well until March of last year,” said Mr Heffernan. “You had BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto and major mining stocks doing well and then – bang – and this thing (the tax debate) went on for months,” said Mr Heffernan. “The major driver of our markets went AWOL.”
In addition to the furore over the tax, the Reserve Bank lifted rates four times in 2010 leaving them at 4.75 per cent in November, putting them at a level the central bank described last month as “slightly restrictive”. The main official rates remain close to zero in Japan and the US, and at 1 per cent for the euro-zone countries.
Adding the local market woes, over the past two years, the Aussie dollar has soared 60.3 per cent against the US dollar to trade most recently at $US1.01.

The quantitative easing program undertaken by the US Federal Reserve since the financial crisis hit – the US central bank essentially printing US dollars to spur growth - has further pushed investment into US equities while commodity-related currencies like the Aussie dollar swell in value, said UBS Wealth Management Head of Investment Strategy George Boubouras. The weaker US dollar increases competitiveness for companies listed in the United States, said Mr Boubouras, which are a broader mix of industries than the mining, energy and banking shares that dominate the Australian market.
“US equity markets are well-diversified across all major sectors with good leverage to recovery in global growth and earnings for both emerging and developed markets,” he said.

The Australian market – linked closely to Asia's growth – is more dependent on emerging market growth for profits, he said. Interestingly, Shanghai's benchmark share index has rebounded less than Australia's, trading about just below half its peak in 2007. “For example, their large technology sector is globally 'best-of-breed' with very good leverage to global recovery,” said Mr Boubouras. “Australia's market does not have such diversification.” Indeed, the top six companies by market value - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and the big four banks - account for about half of the ASX200's total capitalisation of $1.3 trillion.

Wow, the thread is quite, so anyway I'm short at 1.00834, no SL, no TP that's the way I roll....

On that note I love it when people on the threads get on each other about their analysis and whatnot...if I may I wold like to help some of you guys...apparently for many of you English is a second language no big deal as you are very articulate, however you guys really lack in the area of slamming or cutting someone down something only a native speaker would know how to properly do, I mean come on toilet, toilet, flushing WTF is that????

I volunteer to reword any post if you want to slam someone, slay them or whatever...

Man I hate this kind of news "RBA Gov Stevens Speaks" when any of them speak it is like ok sheeple get ready here it comes, I'm going to put it in my mouth and roll it around....BAM!!!! everyone buys

stopped out at BE + 5 on my 1.0090 trade from yesterday. Re-entered long 2 lots @ 1.0070, closed this morning @ 1.0125. Flat right now. The scalping has been very profitable.... but whether your bias is long or short I think everyone is finding recent price action to be irritating. I suppose it will break one way or the other on it's own schedule, not mine. Now looking for another long somewhere below 1.0100, depending on PA. Good trades to all.

Regards

Dollar parity days are numbered
March 09, 2011

SOARING oil prices threaten to end the Aussie dollar's dream run and send it tumbling below parity with the US greenback.
The local currency is trading about $US1.01 after hitting parity in October.
But spooked traders are worried that the two reasons behind the dollar's stellar run -- Australia's comparatively high interest rates and the nation's strong commodities trade with China -- may be on the wane.

If the recent high oil prices are sustained, central banks throughout the world will be forced to lift interest rates to rein in inflation.
This, in turn, will reduce the Aussie dollar's higher yield on investment relative to other currencies as global interest rates play catch-up.

CMC Markets senior forex dealer Tim Waterer said the local currency would be forced downward if the US Federal Reserve starts to lift interest rates.
"So much depends on what happens in the next three to four months," he said. "Oil is the biggest question in the market at the moment as traders are clearly uncomfortable with prices over $US100 a barrel."

The Australian dollar is also at risk if the Chinese Government raises interest rates, as that may dampen demand for the nation's key commodities exports.
Rochford Capital managing director Thomas Averill said the Australian dollar was closely linked to commodity prices.
"I certainly think it could fall below parity and you won't have to wait that long for it," he said.

PS
My shorts remain open, and have also put in sell orders at 1.0200, 1.0250.
Hope it does this one more time.

Ok, if you are putting in sell orders at an all time high......then where the heck are you putting stop losses at? I'm personally looking at like, one more short between here and 1.02 and then a hedge at about 1.02 to go long and cut the shorts, once it blows past 1.02, it's anyone's guess how far people will take it

WTF is this pattern? just open 1 min chart and

underground...