AUD/USD

Mon Mar 7, 2011

A senior U.S. Federal Reserve official warned on Monday that he would vote to scale back or stop the central bank's $600 billion bond-buying program if it proves to be "demonstrably counterproductive."

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher, who has repeatedly said he would not support any more bond buying after the program ends in June, said he was doubtful the purchases were doing much good.

"I remain doubtful enough as to its efficacy that if at any time between now and June, it should prove demonstrably counterproductive, I will vote to curtail or perhaps discontinue it," Fisher said in remarks prepared for delivery to an Institute of International Bankers' conference in Washington.

"The liquidity tanks are full, if not brimming over. The Fed has done its job," he said.


http://twurl.nl/yp3zhi

uh oh...

1.0103 so far.

Update from the last graph....AUDUSD continuing to nose dive...

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Its looking kinda steep....whaddya think? Will it make it?
Yeah, I need more leg room!

While AUD/USD pair trend remains bullish, we only look for buy entries. Buy limit at support @ 1.0075. TP for 115 pips - 1.0190. Also, this level is first weekly support. For small scalp it is possible to open a short order @ 1.0200.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/--.../audusd_d9.png
Regards

Closed half my positions at 1.0107

This is only a temporary close...as it covered my rollover and left me enough to keep me concentrating on this pair!

The path towards 0.8900 will have its up-days...so hoping it goes up a bit so i can top up again


http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/attac...-analyst-1.jpg

usd is weak. Last week usd net short position reached $39bn, higher than the record set in 2007, $36bn.

audusd bears have to wait for another year. lol

Well the long happened on the night, the short right after, but it did not touch 1.0050, did have another short which i exited a few hours ago, i'm still looking for 1.0050 and will take whatever it throws me.

This could be a nice little short...

Looks a little heavy thismorning,we're starting to get quite
a clear range on this at the moment on the one hour chart
,top 1.0185 to bottom at 1.0085,we're just about slap bang
in the middle at 1.0115 at present.
A break to the down side would open a run to 0.9980.
1.0125 is the trigger for me to buy or sell.

[I'm still in a DD...but its getting there....almost...looks promising..]

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long au @ 1.0080

This 4hr chart shows a massive wedge that could possibly be broken to the downside. Inside the wedge is a smaller wedge that broke on 9 Feb. Allow price to break and test the resistance like then go short. A secondary confirmation of this short is the 200 day mv avg. If it breaks next stop would be a break of parity to .9984

While the bulls are sitting around grazing for the next entry.....I've locked in some profits and taken a few pips off the table..

Beginner's Luck!

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I am currently looking at the AUD/USD and on a fundamental note:
- The world economy has recovered. Australia seems to be tanking and the recent floods didn't really stopped their growth.
- The biggest risk i see is China's tightening policy that could impact Australia's exports by stopping them to buy their commodities.
- Also, the US is printing money at a furious rate (75 billion USD/month) and have a very very low interest rate.
- And finally the central bank of Australia is having a high interest rate.

On the technical side, my chart (i drew this chart yesterday):
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1299533485

So, i just bought on the support at 1.0071 with a stop loss at 0.9971

As parity breaks, its a question of how quickly it drops to 0.9200.


07/03/2011

THE Australian dollar’s marathon run higher against the US dollar could be reaching the finish line, setting up the currency for a collapse.
The underlying fundamentals that have benefited the Australian dollar at the expense of its US counterpart for nearly a year could be diminishing, and its recent fall against the euro could be a harbinger of a broader decline, analysts said.

With China looking to curb inflation and the US Federal Reserve eventually needing to tighten monetary policy, the Australian dollar could be set for a pullback later in 2011, analysts said.
"The factors that have driven the Aussie to these levels are waning," said John McCarthy, managing director of foreign exchange for ING Capital Markets in New York.

"The US has to (eventually) hike rates," said Greg Salvaggio, vice-president of capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington.
"Once that happens, you will see investors vacate this position, and they'll do it quickly."
Traders need only look at recent movements in the Australian dollar-euro trade for potential clues about how much the Australian dollar could fall against the US dollar once the Fed starts to talk of tightening monetary policy.

Meanwhile, an overheating Chinese economy could also play a key role in a potential retreat in the Australian dollar.
Australia's reliance on China to purchase raw materials and commodities to keep its vast economy growing could also prove the eventual downfall of the Australian currency.
China has been moving to curb excessive growth and fight rising inflation by raising bank reserve requirements and taking other measures in recent months.
If the actions put the brake on the Chinese economy, that could lead China to scale back its foreign commodity purchases, in turn slowing economic growth in Australia.

It appears the lemmings are now piling into AUD/JPY (short) ... if your short that pair, exert caution.

They should bail as we approach 84 or to really flush em' out ... 84.6/7X - Possibly 85

opened my trade station to see longs triggered @ 1.0090 and 1.0060. Closed the order from 1.0060 @ 1.0113. Moved stop on the other to +5 and holding for 1.0175. All of this happend while I was at the dentist, so it has been easy and stress free! That's the best kind! Don't know what is going to happen with this triangle, though. I will buy a topside break, but just watch and evaluate a downside break. No shorts until we break 9800, which I'm sure will happen one day, but probably not on ely's schedule! Good trades to all...

Regards,

Ely,

I believe I counted 5 or 6 times the word "Could" was used in your article. No offense, but we all know anything could happen. In my experience, articles like this are not worth a bucket of spit. A/U could break to new highs, could make a deep retrace, or could continue to range. There is not one damn person or article that can, with any certainty, place a statistical probability on the outcome. Anyone who says that can are either ignorant, or selling something. For all the points that the article makes, I have 1 counterpoint. Aussie pays 4.75% intrest at present. That one counterpoint has kicked the hell out of all other points for many months now. Will it change one day? Yes. Is that today, next week, or next year? I do not know, and neither does anyone else..... except for the heads of the central banks (to some extent) and they ain't talking right now. So please, for the sake of the forum and other traders, please think carefully before you post another analysist's article calling for a price collapse. Taken together, collectively, they do not add up to dog crap. Your view is short and you are entitled to your opinion. I thank you for your opinion. I read it and take note of it. But there are a lot of inexperienced traders who could, quite possibly, put to much emphasis on your postings. When you think you can make a call, say with 30 days, that the crash will happen.... then that is important and insightful information. Until then, your short conviction, if given weight by others, is getting them their asses handed to them on a platter.

Regards,

Dear FX-Petra,

Thank you for your insight. Would like to ask a newbie question. I have identified 1.0195-1.0200 as the resistance for top-side (as per my H4 chart). Is there any particular reason why you have set your TP to 20pips below resistance?

thanks in advance.

Eh took profits and the remaining free trade got stopped....oh well...

Where to now?