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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #90,981
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:59pm Mar 7, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting Pinbar
Hey, any new people that have taken a few bad demo trades recently?

Don't feel too bad about it, here is one, I would probably have jumped into thinking it was the best thing since they invented beer, six months ago.

I am actually still laughing at how I would without doubt have already been into this trade, short and wondering why price wasn't going down. LoL

This is honesty folks, so don't feel bad if you have taken any not so good setups recently.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCZhiR3bETM

Nice video, Pb. Its good that you're showing that traffic and/or lack of Space that a setup can have will keep you out of a trade . .nice one.

The Power of BIG Bars or BIG PA is what really made this one work out. . Too bad that PB was not at a higher Swing High. Even though the PA was Big, it was still stopped in its tracks by running out of Space (what little it had) and running into a strong PPZ level, 82.00.

Passing on this one for the reasons we described and then seeing them work out is all about being picky.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,982
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:03pm Mar 7, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting aserbfx

shorted cnu at 5.39 usd. took 1/3 off with a profit about 4% (!) at 5.19 usd.
never been a single cent in drawdown. this is crazy...
!!
  • #90,983
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:09pm Mar 7, 2011 4:09pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
First live trade this month....

half shut down at 133.00

trailing manually over daily highs as we go.
Well done Dan. I know the general feeling about GBPJPY was to pass, but like yourself I took this trade. Made a small amount (50 pips), closed half, the rest is at BE. Lets hope the move down is a strong one. I also have an open trade on USDSGD which is up at present, but from past experience this is going to be a slow one

SR2
  • #90,984
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:12pm Mar 7, 2011 4:12pm
I took the geppy trade and am now trying to figure out where it's going to go, and why price stalled at the place it is at right now. Let me know what you guys think about this chart. Are the boxes drawn correctly?

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/5886/m_2...odn4-154kb.jpg
  • #90,985
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:20pm Mar 7, 2011 4:20pm
Got a bullish outside bar forming here on the daily chart with divergence and a triple bottom. PPZ goes back to the good old days of 2009. Target would be the next PPZ at 4.030.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #90,986
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:30pm Mar 7, 2011 4:30pm
Quoting menomoo
I sthis what you meant? These are the clearest ones jump out at me... Not the flips and pa on PPZ but just PBTCA or PBTCB on daily .

Thanks

Vito

Yes, that's what I mean . .Excellent . .

I would not use as you describe as "retest(s)" ..

.. what has happened is that a Resistance level has turned into at Support level once Price broke through and Close above (or below . . vice versa). It is a one way how PPZ levels are formed.

Once we know this transformation or Price Flip developing, we can now look for Bullish PA at Support and/or Bearish PA at Resistance.

Interesting what has currently developed at the 1.6250 . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,987
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:02pm Mar 7, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting Greenhaze
This buob might be good continuation signal but i would like to see price test the breakout area at 114/113.50 first. We look for the most confluence areas and this area hold much importance.

Quoting Pinbar
Yes, the 50 pullback would have been nice.
However, I can see the reverse side of this, as, a pullback that deep would put us below the close of this monthly bar support area, which we are currently above.
The 115.00 the Lowest Close of Support on the Weeky and Monthly is an imporant level. . . and as GH has said, we going to need a good Weekly and/or Monthly Close above that level to flip it back to Support.

More recently, Price has already broken through and Closed above the Weekly HCR on the most recent Weekly and Daily consolidation, 114.00 (also the HCR on the Monthly).

As GH said, this is a great level and its worth waiting for Price to get there, if it does.

Notice the Highs and Closes lining up with the 114.00. Previous bar High of the weekly BUOB. . its a great Location.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,988
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:05pm Mar 7, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting vasmiza
i like this area, nice ppz, thoughts???

Great PPZ level, vasmiza . .
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,989
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:11pm Mar 7, 2011 5:11pm
Quoting Pinbar
Jarroo

Any chance you could relate the HCR to this AUD/USD weekly rising wedge?

I think this is correct but am not sure.
I can see if that wedge breaks out to the top side, those levels playing a role in its continuation or its fail back.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,990
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:33pm Mar 7, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting Be Cool
Thanks Vaz - too bad i didn't see those posts before hand. Good analysis by Jarroo as always - however, in my current learning stage i am unable to reproduce similar analysis the next time around. This is because the bar highs (or HCR as Jarroo called it) are close to each other, 115.0 and 114.90 (more like an area - mine is at 114.75) so my eyes are accustomed to rounding them to the nearest RN : 115.0 This is how i always draw PPZ - rounding them to the nearest RN. So in my eyes the really important level to watch was 115.0 although i knew...
I wish I could give an easy answer, Be Cool. On way is to make your setup qualifying criteria easier . .

. .everything is good - but the size is too small, . . . pass.

. .everything is good - but the Close is not lower/higher then the Open (PBs), . . .pass.

. .everything is good - but the Close is not lower/higher then the Low or High (OBs), . . pass.

Or check out Mike's . . didn't Close below the 115.00 BRN (or strong S/R, PPZ, etc.), . . pass.

etc . . .

These little seemingly simple setup qualifiers can make all the diffence in the world. You just have to see for yourself which best fits your style.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,991
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:37pm Mar 7, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting Pinbar
Sure, this is what started it all.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=90874
Thanks Pinbar !!
  • #90,992
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:38pm Mar 7, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
Right, I hold XAUUSD for like one week and closed with profit, Although the interest was big, in the final picture, it was not a big effect to my profits.. I just wondered why XAUUSD had so big interest payment.
Because, despite what the goldbugs like to ramble, gold is a nonproductive asset*. You dont get paid to hold it.

Australian dollars, on the other hand, do earn interest. More than any developed country in the world, at the moment.

Hence your dilemna. You are borrowing money at a high rate and using it to buy something that pays nothing. (or, if you were short, the reverse). You just happen to be at the extreme - usually, when you are in something like a EUFCHF, USDJPY or so on, the differential is very small (and, chances are, your broker throws and extra 25-50 points on either side, so you end up with nothing).

* I guess you could construct a big vault, fill it with gold and swim in it, Scrooge McDuck style. But that would be about all.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #90,993
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:42pm Mar 7, 2011 5:42pm
Quoting crusen
BE COOL

Regarding the EUR JPY:

I trade similar to the methods talked about here but am very picky and manage the trades quite differently, but

Three things about the EUR JPY that I see are:

1. It just broke out to the upside and has been in an uptrend so going short is going against this momentum.

2. Look at the size of that pin compared to the recent size of bars. It's smaller, probabilities are better with large bars

3. If your stop was above the nose of the pin, the trade isn't over yet

Just my perspective.

I like your perspective, crusen.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,994
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:48pm Mar 7, 2011 5:48pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
First live trade this month....

half shut down at 133.00

trailing manually over daily highs as we go.
Nice one, Dan.

I'd like to see a close below the 133.00 . . if so, I might jump in early on the Weekly BEOB.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #90,995
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:51pm Mar 7, 2011 5:51pm
Gone up in smoke.
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  • #90,996
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:05pm Mar 7, 2011 6:05pm
I've been toying around with Risk management and reducing my losses while maximizing winners. What do you guys think of the following set up?

risk based on account balance: ex 5% of 1000 = 50,

$50 total stoploss
Stop loss= 10 pips
$/pip = $5

I want to be able to set up counter buys if my trade goes against me. IE

If Price Hits .010 Total Position is closed out
If Price Hits 1.008 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.006 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.004 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.002, Buy 1%
Entry Short 5% risk at: $1
1st FTA in pips or price: TP 2%, move SL to BE
2nd FTA: 2%
Let rest run free.
  • #90,997
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:37pm Mar 7, 2011 6:37pm
Quoting jarroo
Interesting what has currently developed at the 1.6250 . .
Daily GbpUsd. I'm liking this dBEOB. Reasonable size, at swing high, has tested and broken through major PPZ's at 1.6270 and 1.6250 and neg div against Macd. I have a dPPZ at 1.6187 and a lesser 4h PPZ at 1.6160 that I'd like to see broken before a straight entry upon break of the bar low. Maybe I'm being too cautious here? Alternatively, look for a discounted entry upon retest of 1.6234 (prev bar low) or the 1.6250PPZ.
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  • #90,998
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:38pm Mar 7, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting DBallerz
I've been toying around with Risk management and reducing my losses while maximizing winners. What do you guys think of the following set up?

risk based on account balance: ex 5% of 1000 = 50,

$50 total stoploss
Stop loss= 10 pips
$/pip = $5

I want to be able to set up counter buys if my trade goes against me. IE

If Price Hits .010 Total Position is closed out
If Price Hits 1.008 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.006 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.004 Buy 1%
If Price Hits 1.002, Buy 1%
Entry Short 5% risk at: $1
1st FTA in pips or price: TP 2%, move SL to BE
2nd...
Hey DB

This sets off a lot of warning signs for me.

Some questions I'll raise back so you can think about it.

Why 5% risk per trade. Don't you think that is awfully high? 3 or 4 losses in a row and you're looking at a 20% drawdown. That's pretty intense.

Why a 10 pt stop loss? Where are you getting this 10 pt only stop loss and being able to handle being in a trade.

The process of averaging in your 5% is more martingale then anything. Makes me nervous. Very nervous

These are usually steps people take b/c they want to take a small account and balloon it quick. Most of the times this ends in disaster.

Hope these questions give you something to think about(and are inteded only to get you thinking not judge). Our motives in trading can tell us a great deal

Mike
  • #90,999
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:53pm Mar 7, 2011 6:53pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey DB

This sets off a lot of warning signs for me.

Some questions I'll raise back so you can think about it.

Why 5% risk per trade....
5% risk and 10pt stop loss is all just for sake of discussion. The point of the 1% is that it will be slowly closing my short position, and take a SMALLER losses and a SMALLER drawdown.
  • #91,000
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:10pm Mar 7, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting DBallerz
5% risk and 10pt stop loss is all just for sake of discussion. The point of the 1% is that it will be slowly closing my short position, and take a SMALLER losses and a SMALLER drawdown.

Well it's something that you have to test. It's impossible to say it will or won't work with your style of trading. I tracked multiple exit methods for a long time. My research always took me back to simplicity. You may find different and that is what the learning curve is all about

Best
Mike
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