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  • #15,081
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:31pm Mar 6, 2011 4:31pm
Quoting Intel
LOL
so a test is any volume on any bar except one that closes near the low?
im not sure if that's a trick question or not.

in my reply, i deliberately included the issue of a successful & failed test.

a bar that closes near the low, wide spread, high vol. is not a test bar.

thanks for the link. i should've just mentioned it.

Quoting Intel
There are many types of tests. A SO is one of them or to be more precise, a test can also be a SO...
this is built-in in my earlier reply too

Quoting Mtm
...
Hi supremeChaos, do you mean any candle, no matter its a bull candle or bear candle can be a test bar as long as it has got a tail and it appears after signs of strength?
..
if i understood your Q correctly, yes it can be a bull/bear candle.
the main issues are the vol. & spread.

a test is a sign of strength itself. actually, it's a major sign of strength


posting this 6.30am, but if u have any corrections, please bring it on. always excited to learn
  • #15,082
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:35pm Mar 6, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting malcolmb14
any advise is welcome , Steve is going to help me a bit when we hook up in uk,,,, but not sure how great that advise will be after the 10th pint
...better than the advice after the 20th pint
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,083
  • Mar 6, 2011 11:11pm Mar 6, 2011 11:11pm
EUR/USD continue from last post.

Action for Tue 1-Mar till Fri 4-Mar.
Action from 5th Box up to 7th Box.


D1:
- See potential Long target at a longer timeframe at "SR Daily Zone" around 1.4210.
- See Daily Upcoming Resistance around 1.3800 to 1.3860.
- Thes overlapping bodies are pressure building up. Waiting to explode either Up or Down. Based on 22-Feb Test, bias is still Long.
- Wed 2-Mar price pushed up through the resistance zone of 1.3800 and 1.3860 after a few basically inside days.
- Thu 3-Mar the Red News of Unemployment Claims and ECB Conference help to light up the Rocket Fuel Up.
- Fri 4-Mar NFP not expecting to have big impact due to the Thu Red News.
- Now we approach a Natural Resistance 1.4000.
- For Longs to keep going, want earlier(Mon-Wed) this week to Retrace Down Below 1.4000, then later (Wed-Fri)) this week for the price to SLOWLY and STEADY climb to and Above 1.4000 with good vol.


H1:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- 5th Box acutally around 70pips.
- The Black Lines for Boxes were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- Mon 28-Feb, price bounce at 5th Box Low for a low vol NS for Ideal Long 1.3795.
- Tue 1-Mar, not much action to signal.
- Wed 2-Mar, there was a "Test at Last ND", "Shake Out at Last ND", "Test after SO. Ideal Long" around 1.3830.
- Thu 3-Mar, the Red News of "Unemployment Claims and ECB Conference" gave a 140pips Rocket Boost Up.
- Fri 4-Mar, the Red News of "NFP" gave 60pips that is like a big doji indecision. Good that the spread is consider small of 60pips as need further small retracement down to help strengthen the Longs.


M15:
- Originally only drawn 1st Box to 4th Box. Now drawing further boxes with same idea.
- All the long horizontal lines were previously drawn, just extended only without changing much on the price.
- 5th Box acutally around 70pips.
- Wed 2-Mar, near 4th Box Low, there was a "Test in Asian", "Shake Out", "NS in London Open. Ideal Long" around 1.3775.
- Thu 3-Mar, mostly flat till like 2hours before the Red News of "Unemployment Claims and ECB Conference".
- Thu 3-Mar, near 6th Box Low there was a "Test. Ideal Long" around 1.3855.
- Also a few bars that look like NS just before the News for Possible Longs around 1.3855.
- The 2 Red News help "Pushing Through Supply" from 6th Box Low 1.3850 to 6th Box High 1.3930.
- Fri 4-Mar, NFT did not give clear signal, just a continuation where price touch almost 7th Box High 1.4010.
- The NFP was a UpThrust, but there was NO Down Confirmation, so can range for the next few days, or retrace down for a while. No clear weakness as yet.
- There is a Natural Resistance at 1.4000.
- Now can see Clear White Space in the 6th Box where price can retrace down into here without much clear support in 6th Box at the moment.
- Waiting for price to bounce at 7th Box Low 1.3930 , 6th Box Middle 1.3880 , 6th Box Low 1.3850.
- Wait for next few days to see if price can clear the NFP High of 1.4007.



Price is progressing nicely up through the Box Stages for now.

Prices have gone through 1st Box to 5th Box in a steady manner, sometimes retracing 1-2 boxes.
For 5 boxes of 80pips, that is a 400pips move.
It is still very possible for another 5 boxes of 80pips move, another 400pips to get to around 1.4200.



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  • #15,084
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:35am Mar 7, 2011 12:35am
Quoting supremeChaos
im not sure if that's a trick question or not.

in my reply, i deliberately included the issue of a successful & failed test.

a bar that closes near the low, wide spread, high vol. is not a test bar.

thanks for the link. i should've just mentioned it.


this is built-in in my earlier reply too


if i understood your Q correctly, yes it can be a bull/bear candle.
the main issues are the vol. & spread.

a test is a sign of strength itself....
LOL good man!

I was laughing earlier, not at you, but at the explaination of the test and the fact that you weren't wrong. When you see it written in 1 sentence as you did, you realise how vague the individual tests are when taken in isolation. In order to correctly identify a test, we HAVE to know whats happening in the market. This puts a premium on reading the background. Some tests can only be identified by either watching them form or by drilling down a couple of TFs to see how it was formed.

Tests are very important for for identifying strength and weakness but, the basic test is probably the most powerful of them all.
  • #15,085
  • Mar 7, 2011 1:49am Mar 7, 2011 1:49am
Quoting malcolmb14
so I have been thinking baout a mac laptop , finally gave in today and bought one. mac book pro i5 2.4 mhz processor etc etc as they are one sale right now with the new ones arriving in store.

I know dr g has three monitors hooked up to his.

anyone have any thoughts on this.

I have windows 7 installed and will be installing parallels.

Any one have any luck on running paralles mobile once they have it on the mac ? It would be aweosme if i could trade right off the ipad while at gym ...lol. you are supposed to be able to access all...
You mean 2.4 Ghz no?

Your MBP is a great purchase.. hooking up multiple monitors is going to be a breeze with the thunderbolt port.

Parallels is quite easy, I use VM Ware Fusion and have been very satisfied with it since the last 3-4 years. You can use LogMein Pro from your iPad to connect to your MBP and trade via parallels.

Just don't hit the wrong button while running

Ditch the beer man.. just converts more testosterone into estrogen = more fat!
  • #15,086
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:53am Mar 7, 2011 3:53am
Quoting Intel
There are many types of tests. A SO is one of them or to be more precise, a test can also be a SO .
This is the best post IMHO, I 100% agree with Intel.

The key thing is to realise is that the SM is testing for supply, which they understandably do a lot! They don't test by poking their noses upwards because if it fails, it costs them a lot of money. They mark the price down rapidly by selling some of their 'stock' and then buy it back - its cost them next to nothing but the mere effect of marking the price down should tempt any bears to join in the selling.

So if its a down bar closing on the high on low volume, in the right place (remember the background!) then its a nice test, and higher prices should follow. Its cost the SM next to nothing but proven that there is no supply left. Remember that bars on higher timeframes might include tests in the lower timeframe that makes up that bar.

If its a down bar closing on the high on higher volume (again in the right place), then there probably has been some supply here. You'll find out if the next bar is down or not. Some bears may have sold when provoked, so this supply must be removed before higher prices can be achieved. You'll probably see this area retested.

If the next bar was up, then this extra volume was likely buying on the down move (could be stopping volume). Good, but not as clean as a basic low volume test.

If its a down bar closing on the low with high volume, and the background shows the SM is bullish, then when the SM marked the price down the bears came out to play and swamped them - there is little point in the SM buying back at this stage because they will just lose money. Assuming the SM is bullish, you'll see a plan of attack to remove this supply - shakeouts etc. They may need to wait days or weeks to do this, thats why you never see markets go up as fast as they come down.

All my humble opinion, please jump in if you feel I've got something wrong.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,087
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:12am Mar 7, 2011 4:12am
Quoting Steve Gill
This is the best post IMHO, I 100% agree with Intel.

The key thing is to realise is that the SM is testing for supply, which they understandably do a lot! They don't test......

All my humble opinion, please jump in if you feel I've got something wrong.
Great post
  • #15,088
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:14am Mar 7, 2011 4:14am
Quoting Steve Gill
This is the best post IMHO, I 100% agree with Intel.

The key thing is to realise is that the SM is testing for supply, which they understandably do a lot! They don't test by poking their noses upwards because if it fails, it costs them a lot of money. They mark the price down rapidly by selling some of their 'stock' and then buy it back - its cost them next to nothing but the mere effect of marking the price down should tempt any bears to join in the selling.

So if its a down bar closing on the high on low volume, in the right place (remember...
Hi Steve,
in other words, am i right to assume that all the bars, no matter it is a bull/bear candle can be considered as a test bar as long as it has the following 3 qualities:
1) strength spotted in its background
2) it is above and near a support level
3) it has a tail

your views/comments pls, thanks
  • #15,089
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:41am Mar 7, 2011 4:41am
Quoting Mtm
Hi Steve,
in other words, am i right to assume that all the bars, no matter it is a bull/bear candle can be considered as a test bar as long as it has the following 3 qualities:
1) strength spotted in its background
2) it is above and near a support level
3) it has a tail

your views/comments pls, thanks
No. As Tom Williams makes clear, test bars are ALWAYS on down bars.

You may find that on a higher timeframe it looks different - for example, there could be a test on the 5 min which results in the price shooting up - on the 15 minute it could end up being an upbar with a tail.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,090
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:48am Mar 7, 2011 4:48am
Quoting Steve Gill
No. As Tom Williams makes clear, test bars are ALWAYS on down bars.

You may find that on a higher timeframe it looks different - for example, there could be a test on the 5 min which results in the price shooting up - on the 15 minute it could end up being an upbar with a tail.
Thanks for the reply. It seems there are 2 definitions for downbars:
1) a bear candle
2) a candle which closes lower than previous candle

but I think TW would say a downbar is (2) , as the charts he use only shows the close and not the open of the bar... so can't really tell if it is a 'bear' candle.. am i right?
  • #15,091
  • Edited 5:24am Mar 7, 2011 4:54am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting Mtm
Thanks for the reply. It seems there are 2 definitions for downbars:
1) a bear candle
2) a candle which closes lower than previous candle

but I think TW would say a downbar is (2) , as the charts he use only shows the close and not the open of the bar... so can't really tell if it is a 'bear' candle.. am i right?
You are right - ignore candle types and concentrate on closes.

A down bar is a bar where the CLOSE is lower than the previous bar.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,092
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:59am Mar 7, 2011 4:59am
For arguments sake, is the current hourly Eddie bar (just about to close) indicative of a test?

In fact, most of the EURO charts have this type bar. Narrow spread down bar, closing high, volume less than previous two.
  • #15,093
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:03am Mar 7, 2011 5:03am
certainly looks like it to me, strength in background, low vol down bar closing off the lows. to me thats a classic low vol test right onto R1 at 4015.

of course we are meant to see if the next bar is up to confirm it so cant take trade for another hour, and if the next bar IS up then thats probably the move done for the day as its already done 75, and being monday with no news it may not go much further. bit awkward really. i was hoping for a test closer to 4000 for it to be worthwhile going long.

does seem like a standard test so interesting to see what it does now (and at the moment its going the wrong way).

it does smell to me like it may just drift sideways for the rest of the day now bewteen 4000 and 4030 with an option at 4050. unless NY decides to take it out (but i guess thats a lot easier with news, and there is none unless trichet makes something happen in an hour).
  • #15,094
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:18am Mar 7, 2011 5:18am
Quoting KinsaleForex
For arguments sake, is the current hourly Eddie bar (just about to close) indicative of a test?

In fact, most of the EURO charts have this type bar. Narrow spread down bar, closing high, volume less than previous two.
In my opinion yes, it's (potentially) a beautiful example although ideally the volume would be lower. We need to see the next bar to find out, but that would be an example where you'd place a buy limit order above that test bar - if it goes up, you get taken into the trade. I'd probably place it above the high of the previous hourly bar - about 1.4030?

I'm not sure if the volume is low enough for me to be confident to take a trade though, especially as we're at a high. If we'd pulled back and then saw that test bar, I'd be a lot more confident. Each to their own though.

Also note ATR - we're 70 pips in from the day low - so there is still room on the upside.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,095
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:21am Mar 7, 2011 5:21am
Interesting that although rumours over the weekend of Portugal going the way of Ireland and getting bailed out EU isn't showing signs of weakness today - this market is certainly bullish!
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,096
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:24am Mar 7, 2011 5:24am
Quoting Steve Gill
You are right - ignore candle types and concentrate on closes.

A down bar is a bar where the CLOSE is lower than the previous bar.
I have edited my post above for clarity, sorry Mtm. I was skim reading and missed your, "am i right" question.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,097
  • Edited 5:52am Mar 7, 2011 5:34am | Edited 5:52am
Quoting Steve Gill
I have edited my post above for clarity, sorry Mtm. I was skim reading and missed your, "am i right" question.
oh, ... im using mt4 and we can only color bull and bear candlesticks, i don't think it allows us to color the upbar and downbars according to their close... so it would be quite difficult for me to see which ones are all the downbars...

---> Thanks for your post #15100, I'll try that out
  • #15,098
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:38am Mar 7, 2011 5:38am
Quoting Mtm
oh, ... im using mt4 and we can only color bull and bear candlesticks, i don't think it allows us to color the upbar and downbars according to their close... so it would be quite difficult for me to see which ones are all the downbars...
That was one of the first advantages of TG for me - it makes it much easier to read. I still have difficulty reading candlesticks quickly, which is why I prefer bar charts.

You might be interested in this post
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,099
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:49am Mar 7, 2011 5:49am
can someone post a 15min chart of gold and oil and es?

can't have access to mt4 right now.
  • #15,100
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:14am Mar 7, 2011 6:14am
Quoting Mtm
Thanks for the reply. It seems there are 2 definitions for downbars:
1) a bear candle
2) a candle which closes lower than previous candle

but I think TW would say a downbar is (2) , as the charts he use only shows the close and not the open of the bar... so can't really tell if it is a 'bear' candle.. am i right?
I don't see the need to focus on terms. It may help with communication, but other than that it doesn't matter what we call it, as long as we understand it. VSA will have many people looking soley for tests etc, rather than understanding the action itself. I won't fault VSA as it is just not being correctly applied. That's the price for simplifying something to make it easy for people to understand.
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