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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #90,881
  • Mar 6, 2011 1:26am Mar 6, 2011 1:26am
Quoting Donkey
I've been watching Dan Gilbert trade the I4Bs and sort of looking for one to do a first demo trade on. EURCAD weekly is straddling BRN 1.3500 and is an I5B. Looks to be in the right spot, but immediate traffic on both sides. There is some room to move in both directions if it gets through relative close fta's.

The best I4Bs are the ones that are really small.

I have used this USDCAD example many times, this ideal one.

I know the EURCAD here is technically an I4B, but it's not a beauty...

Here is perfection in my opinion:
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  • #90,882
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:39am Mar 6, 2011 4:39am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting Adilius07
This would be very much tradable to me. The only one thing is missing is it's not at swing low, otherwise is great. Just an example
Adi, in this particular case it need not be at a swing low, coz its shows a classic H & S formation and a break at its neckline. So it should give a nice upward move.

Just my 2 pips.
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I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #90,883
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:24am Mar 6, 2011 5:24am
Quoting Jey
Adi, in this particular case it need not be at a swing low, coz its shows a classic H & S formation and a break at its neckline. So it should give a nice upward move.

Just my 2 pips.
I like this view
Current market conditions favors strong eur vs yen plus we have Monthly & weekly BUOB. This daily pb might be just some profit taking before the weekend and comparing it to the strong upside momentum i would rather look for bullish pa .
  • #90,884
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:46am Mar 6, 2011 5:46am
Would invite views /critique regarding this setup:

Realize I am looking at the VBRN 1.5 on the downside, so considering a short below 1.4995.

I like it because:
1. Bearish engulfing outside bar closing below the 1.51 PPZ
2. Seems to consolidate at the 38.2 Fib
3. FTA at around 1.49 - So a few pips to play with

Best Regards
Ganesh
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  • #90,885
  • Mar 6, 2011 6:19am Mar 6, 2011 6:19am
Quoting Pinbar
Hey Adi

Been thinking about that GBP/JPY PB.

It does look tempting from the size and location, but as we discussed I think it is a pass because of the FTA being so close after we add a 10 pip buffer and figure in the spread. It sure will be interesting to see how this plays out next week.

Note I said " a ten pip stop" in the video, I mean to say, a "10 pip buffer".


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goR7aRY-7qk
Thanks for the vid...my sentiments are the same...also inline with you on the other video. I like your analysis. I think some of these PB's are tradeable. But believe the "this is critical axiom applies" as well as don't be surprised when price turns on you since these IMHO are not the best locations and have the potential to turn, since the PPZ's appear close to the FTA. And if I recall without looking back at the pairs, they seem to be somewhat in a sideways market, and need to be closely monitored/managed.
  • #90,886
  • Mar 6, 2011 6:19am Mar 6, 2011 6:19am
if you keep your trade open for weeks, how do you deal with the daily interest you must pay to keep the trade open?

you must pay bg interest every day and if you keep it open for weeks, you lose lots of money.
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  • #90,887
  • Mar 6, 2011 6:19am Mar 6, 2011 6:19am
Quoting ksganesh100
Would invite views /critique regarding this setup:

Realize I am looking at the VBRN 1.5 on the downside, so considering a short below 1.4995.

I like it because:
1. Bearish engulfing outside bar closing below the 1.51 PPZ
2. Seems to consolidate at the 38.2 Fib
3. FTA at around 1.49 - So a few pips to play with

Best Regards
Ganesh

I glanced this setup this morning.

VBRN just 12 pips below it and a ton of support on the weekly.
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  • #90,888
  • Mar 6, 2011 6:26am Mar 6, 2011 6:26am
Quoting ksganesh100
Would invite views /critique regarding this setup:

Realize I am looking at the VBRN 1.5 on the downside, so considering a short below 1.4995.

I like it because:
1. Bearish engulfing outside bar closing below the 1.51 PPZ
2. Seems to consolidate at the 38.2 Fib
3. FTA at around 1.49 - So a few pips to play with

Best Regards
Ganesh
Hey Ganesh,

Imagine you were trading live with real money, lets say you are. Would you really place your money on this trade? It hasn't closed below 1.50 VBRN it hasn't even tested this number. Lets say it went below 1.50 and you entered immediately below 1.500, there is a high probability we will get an initial rejection at this level. So once you enter 1.4995 you might find yourself in in the red unless you place your stop right above 1.500.

Further, the area below 1.500 is not an area I would like to be trading into. Check out the boxes. It is not something I would put my money on even on demo.
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  • #90,889
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:33am Mar 6, 2011 7:33am
In your view, if the story shows breakout long say multibar highs with higher lows, testing the ppz and you get a 1H bar that closes above the ppz that shows strength/ authority does this warrant you to take a long TT at the old ppz or do enter on a buy stop above the 1H or is it even valid to go long on the 1H for you? I realize the higher TF's would show more validity.

Also, what if the retracement bar showed strength ...would you ditch the trade?

Also, this is aside from the fact that I am not playing a pure breakout.

Little confused here on breakouts for this type of situation. What has been your experiences? I guess I'm asking what validates or convinces you once breaks to jump in and trade it?

I know this might be hard to analyze without a chart...sorry.
Thanks,

Bill
  • #90,890
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:40am Mar 6, 2011 7:40am
Quoting MapleLeaf
if you keep your trade open for weeks, how do you deal with the daily interest you must pay to keep the trade open?

you must pay bg interest every day and if you keep it open for weeks, you lose lots of money.
Depends on what you're trading and the direction. Some pairs pairs pay interest some cost you interest.
  • #90,891
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:42am Mar 6, 2011 7:42am
Quoting jarroo
I would stay on the Daily and Weekly TFs. If your going to venture down to the 4 Hour, I would still keep the Daily and Weekly PPZ levels for my 4 Hour PA.

i see what you mean , but are you saying that keeping in mind where I am at !!!!

If so !!! I Roger that!!! Thanks


Vito
  • #90,892
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:57am Mar 6, 2011 7:57am
After thinking a lot,I'm passing all the PBs on Yen pairs(CADJPY,GBPJPY,EURJPY)...
  • #90,893
  • Edited 8:30am Mar 6, 2011 8:17am | Edited 8:30am
Many may not trade this pair since the spread is too high.

However, it does not stop us analyzing setups.

Pros:
PB at swing high. Tested highs of the previous bars. PB off from PPZ.
Broke 1.6 BRN.
Size and shape is ok. FTA is clear (Green line) after crossing previous flip point at 1.59 (Red Rectangle to the left) . Plenty of space after FTA to go all the way to 1.55.

Blue line can be used to manage the trade.

Cons: Strong uptrend. PB did not close in red. A close under 1.59 would have been great.

Thoughts?
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  • #90,894
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:17am Mar 6, 2011 8:17am
Quoting ksganesh100
Would invite views /critique regarding this setup:

Realize I am looking at the VBRN 1.5 on the downside, so considering a short below 1.4995.

I like it because:
1. Bearish engulfing outside bar closing below the 1.51 PPZ
2. Seems to consolidate at the 38.2 Fib
3. FTA at around 1.49 - So a few pips to play with

Best Regards
Ganesh
Hi Ganesh. I am inclined to agree with PB and vasmiza on this one. The 1.5000 is currently a strong PPZ. Each time price has broken through and closed below on daily, resistance hasn't held. Contrast with the support we see when price closes back above and holds.

I don't have as strict of rules on trading into BRN's as mike and some others, but this is one I wouldn't want to trade into.

This is very elementary but I try to think of what orders may be in level I'm thinking of trading into. Near 1.5 there could be take profit (buys), stop losses covering shorts (buys), and new longs (i think this is a spot that touch traders are watching). If you're thinking short there, I would make sure you get a close below and retest to validate resistance holding.....

Disclaimer: I'm personally biased for bullish PA at 1.5000.
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  • #90,895
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:40am Mar 6, 2011 8:40am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Agree with Donkey here. Also it looks like price wants to try and complete the right hand side shoulder for the obvious H & S formation before being slammed dunked by the blue MA and 61.8 plus a PPZ. Only after all these takes place would a short make sense.
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #90,896
  • Mar 6, 2011 9:05am Mar 6, 2011 9:05am
Quoting Donkey
Hi Ganesh. I am inclined to agree with PB and vasmiza on this one. The 1.5000 is currently a strong PPZ. Each time price has broken through and closed below on daily, resistance hasn't held. Contrast with the support we see when price closes back above and holds.
PB / Vasmiza / D / Jey, Thanks for taking out time and replying. Appreciate all your inputs. My objective was to present something I thought was a good setup and get an objective opinion from more experienced traders. Having read through your analysis, I feel like a dork not having seen what you have seen. So, Objective accomplished

Need to be more picky and think about what can go wrong as well when I am analysing a setup!

Thanks
Ganesh
  • #90,897
  • Mar 6, 2011 10:04am Mar 6, 2011 10:04am
oww with a weekly pinbar. broke through resistance and closed above.
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  • #90,898
  • Mar 6, 2011 10:51am Mar 6, 2011 10:51am
Quoting Donkey
Hi Ganesh. I am inclined to agree with PB and vasmiza on this one. The 1.5000 is currently a strong PPZ. Each time price has broken through and closed below on daily, resistance hasn't held. Contrast with the support we see when price closes back above and holds.

I don't have as strict of rules on trading into BRN's as mike and some others, but this is one I wouldn't want to trade into.

This is very elementary but I try to think of what orders may be in level I'm thinking of trading into. Near 1.5 there could be take profit (buys), stop losses...


Wouldn't the monthly (Feb) "pinish" bar set the tone for lower time frames? It seems to have already experienced a slight retrace and were on a definite downtrend. Would we not then go short at every opportunity on the lower time frames? Thanks.
  • #90,899
  • Mar 6, 2011 10:51am Mar 6, 2011 10:51am
Quoting haircut
Hi Mike
I have been following through the thread and I understand what a I4b set up looks like but am unsure onhow they are traded, how are the trades entered?
Thanks
Inside bars indicate consolidation and can be played as breakouts. That is buying/selling above the high with a stop on the other side. Some people will "straddle" inside bars(a buy above, sell below) to catch the breakout either way. Sometimes it is best to play only one side. Such as a buy above the high of the inside bar when it is sitting on support(see chart)

Best
Mike
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  • #90,900
  • Mar 6, 2011 10:55am Mar 6, 2011 10:55am
Quoting MapleLeaf
if you keep your trade open for weeks, how do you deal with the daily interest you must pay to keep the trade open?

you must pay bg interest every day and if you keep it open for weeks, you lose lots of money.
Hey Maple

Most brokers are going to pay you or subtract the interest. So it goes both ways depending on the interest rates of the two pairs against one and another. The interest is not something huge and from my experience it balances out a bit since you get paid interest as well as some brokers paying interest on your balances as well. Again from what I know the only place that holding positions is a killer are spreadbetting but that is not something in the US we use

Best
Mike
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