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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #561
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:07pm Mar 4, 2011 6:07pm
I thought I'd share my results so far with the system. I am following the original system to the point, even though I am working on ways to adapt it to my trading situation. I am looking into trading with a little less risk, perhaps 1% instead of 2,5% to decrease DD. I little more testing is required before I add this to my other live systems.

Jan
+16,26% (last trade took me a good bit over the goal)
max DD -2,54%

Feb
+3,28%
max DD -6,58%

March (to date)
-0,81%
max DD -5,60%
  • #562
  • Mar 4, 2011 8:28pm Mar 4, 2011 8:28pm
i am also following 9 pip rule but i got a trade and made 42 pips !!! the pippette saved me today. also using EA helped me. the gap is 9.4 pips on my feed. GMT0 open 1.62742, GMT8 open 1.62836

if i had done a manual trade probably it would have been filtered by 9 pip rule. i am not saying 9 pips is very scientific number, its just a number picked during backtesting. but once you pick it stick to it
  • #563
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:54pm Mar 5, 2011 12:54pm
Quote
Four days into month of march and have hit my +10% of starting balance. All rules same as before(post521)

4 Trades
1 loss -20pips
1 win for 1 pip
2 wins +61pips.
Thing is, what to do now? Cgrey advises having rest of month off, which I think is probably the right thing to do, but we still have about 15 or so trading days left in month, seems a shame to let them pass by.
What to do......
What to do......
Have a good weekend to all and once again many thanks to cgrey for good, simple way to trade.

Geoff

The Math says that the system works (ie small losses while we wait for the big gain) while you will be risking $$ to keep trading, you are planning to risk those same $$ next month. The choice is really do you risk them now or later. To me that is an easy choice since I believe the system will work the same now as it will next month.

[QUOTEthat's the equivalent of getting all my paychecks for the month if I had a real job. You mean you'll pay me for the whole month on the 4th and I don't have to show up for work again until April 1st? Yea, I'll take that.....][/quote]

If by "showing up to work" you mean setting one trade a day with no further research required.... Then I'll keep showing up to work and make more money
  • #564
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:44am Mar 7, 2011 7:44am
With TP being based on target for the month do you start a 'new month' when you have hit 10%?

Why have you decided to do this instead of aiming for 15% or 20% or 200% in march?


dave.
  • #565
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:55am Mar 7, 2011 8:55am
Quoting dave0
With TP being based on target for the month do you start a 'new month' when you have hit 10%?

Why have you decided to do this instead of aiming for 15% or 20% or 200% in march?


dave.
Some choose to set a goal or business plan and follow it to a tee. If the 10% is what you will use to pay bills, then it may be too risky for you to continue. I personally would continue and recalculate after each 10% hit, but I don't use that money to pay bills nor is it used to run or grow a business. How did today go?
  • #566
  • Mar 7, 2011 9:36am Mar 7, 2011 9:36am
no show today due to small gap
  • #567
  • Mar 7, 2011 9:46am Mar 7, 2011 9:46am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
How did today go?
No trade if you are using the 9-pip rule. +38 pips if you're not....
  • #568
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:37am Mar 7, 2011 10:37am
i have been following the USD/GBP charts for around 5 years due to me working for an american company, i have had a few practice accounts and finally actually got myself a live account last october.
i have been trying to find if there actually is anything worth noting about chart signals over actual economic events.

i hope the chartists do not crucify me for this but i opened 2 accounts to play off one another, i always watch out for the economic news, even get up at 05:30am to watch bloomberg and internet news, i have now been trading for 6 months and am showing a 150% profit just by following the news, how can the charts help when lets say north korea launch a missile attack or the libyan crisis gets worse ? the charts dont account for this

Grant01
  • #569
  • Mar 7, 2011 12:58pm Mar 7, 2011 12:58pm
Quoting grant01
i have been following the USD/GBP charts for around 5 years due to me working for an american company, i have had a few practice accounts and finally actually got myself a live account last october.
i have been trying to find if there actually is anything worth noting about chart signals over actual economic events.

i hope the chartists do not crucify me for this but i opened 2 accounts to play off one another, i always watch out for the economic news, even get up at 05:30am to watch bloomberg and internet news, i have now been trading for 6 months...
Excellent points (I'm a fundamental trader myself) - wrong thread. This thread is for the discussion of the system outlined herein. Please take this topic to a more appropriate thread so the focus of the discussion on this thread remains with this system.
  • #570
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:55pm Mar 7, 2011 7:55pm
[QUOTESome choose to set a goal or business plan and follow it to a tee. If the 10% is what you will use to pay bills, then it may be too risky for you to continue. I personally would continue and recalculate after each 10% hit, but I don't use that money to pay bills nor is it used to run or grow a business. How did today go?][/quote]


I'm not sure where the notion came from that a business caps it's profits. I'm new to trading but have owned my own business for seven years. Some people prefer to cap at 10%. This is a personal preference that I respect. However it does nothing to grow or kill a business. I guess I could be wrong about this but I don't see any companies around me that shut the doors when they hit their profit goal for the month.
  • #571
  • Edited 10:13pm Mar 7, 2011 9:53pm | Edited 10:13pm
Quoting vullkem116

I'm not sure where the notion came from that a business caps it's profits. I'm new to trading but have owned my own business for seven years. Some people prefer to cap at 10%. This is a personal preference that I respect. However it does nothing to grow or kill a business. I guess I could be wrong about this but I don't see any companies around me that shut the doors when they hit their profit goal for the month.
If you've survived in your own business for 7-years, you almost certainly have a solid business plan. I'll further speculate that your business plan contains some provision for managing risk. How you manage that risk will be different for different types of businesses. Some businesses are riskier by their nature than others. Very few other businesses leave you as open to failure as quickly as Forex does. Every single trade you make, if you haven't properly analyzed the risk and taken measures to minimize it can put you out of business - the wonder of leverage (among other things)... The simplest way to manage risk is to not trade. Obviously, you can't succeed if you are not in the game - so this is where the concept of hitting a target and eliminating any further risk comes in, for me at least. Other traders may have other strategies for minimizing their risk. But rest assured, Forex is one business that you can be guaranteed to fail in if you do not have some type of risk management strategy, whatever it is. Given the nature of this business, there are a lot fewer options than more traditional businesses. Many professional traders will half-jokingly tell you the best months they've had are the ones they didn't trade

Conversely, profit margins in most "traditional" businesses are slim compared to the potential Forex offers. How many small businesses (I'm talking about 1-man shops here, which Forex is) would shut down for a few weeks each month if they could once they've covered all of their expenses (salaries and projected savings and growth included) for the month? It's another one of the beauties of Forex - no customers, no expectations that your store is open 7 days a week from dawn to dusk or that as a consultant or service provider you are always available to your clients. If you want it, you have total freedom - something even most traditional business owners don't experience. I choose to have my cake and eat it too. My Forex business provides more for my family than my salary after 25-years in corporate America did. And if I have a particularly good week, I can (and many months have) "worked" as little as 6 or 7 days some months. You're right, it's a personal preference - so far this has worked for me

Depending on whose numbers you believe, as many as 80% of businesses that are started in the US fail within the first 5 years. The companies you see around you represent the one out of five that actually had a plan to keep their risk under control and survived to see another day (or, have been extremely lucky, which is another thing that helps in the Forex business).
  • #572
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:42pm Mar 7, 2011 10:42pm
... I've been trying to think of a better comparison....

While I've been saying you need to treat your trading like a business, Forex really is very different from a traditional business in many ways. For one, most traditional businesses will have a forecast / budget for a month. This means the owner knows, with a reasonable degree of certainty, what their expenses and receipts will be for the month before it has started. If you trade without a plan for when to STOP trading for the month, you don't have that. Every trade is potentially an expense. In a traditional business, you run very little risk when keeping your doors open another day. You've already figured your inventory (or supplies, or whatever your cost of goods sold for your business is) for the month - opening your doors today generally won't cost you anything (or at the very least, carries much less risk of costing you than a Forex trade would), and can bring you more profits. On the other hand, every time you open you doors in Forex (ie, place a trade), that is a potential expense - a loser is an expense.

If you haven't budgeted to start an advertising campaign during this month (potentially a major expense), chances are, as a smart business owner, you wouldn't just decide on a whim to call your local radio station and buy some commercials. You would plan for it, and budget it for next month/quarter/year, etc., as a planned expense. Again, placing that one trade more than is necessary is opening you up to that unplanned, potentially large expense.

Of course, maybe that "one more trade" is a winner..... So, are we coming back full circle (for those that have been with this thread since the beginning) to gambling? How many successful gamblers do you know? How many horror stories about gamblers do you know?

Again, it's all a matter of personal perspective. I'm hoping by sharing mine it can help others find success in this business.
  • #573
  • Mar 8, 2011 12:44am Mar 8, 2011 12:44am
Interesting thread.

Would you consider ditching the days where the big RED fundamentals are announced....so US, UK reserve/fed meets and the unemployment figures...as surely these days would be wonky (to use a technical term)
  • #574
  • Edited 1:59am Mar 8, 2011 1:07am | Edited 1:59am
Firstly, I want to thank cgrey for introducing this excellent method.

I want to add is that of cgrey's implementation of the 10% profit cap(not taking into consideration the compounding of the monthly balance) is really ingenious and very discipline.

In most conventional businesses you don't see profit straight from day 1 of the month because most part of beginning of every month is working to cover fixed expenses (rental, salaries, utilities,bank loan,etc) and only after all that probably it's already half a month or three weeks gone by that you begin to see profits. So, you really have to keep your shop open for the whole month !

I agree with cgrey that we can close our forex business for rest of the month once we hit the 10% even it is still beginning of the month.

.......anyway this is just my opinion and personal experience.

Thank you again, cgrey.

Rgds
Vincent
  • #575
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:31am Mar 8, 2011 3:31am
Small win today of 6 pips or so depending on your spread.

My ROI for March (ignoring the 9 pip rule): 4.3%
Target pips for tomorrow: 46

Love this simple method. Thanks for introducing this to us, cgrey.
  • #576
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:11am Mar 8, 2011 4:11am
Quoting erwal
Small win today of 6 pips or so depending on your spread.

My ROI for March (ignoring the 9 pip rule): 4.3%
Target pips for tomorrow: 46

Love this simple method. Thanks for introducing this to us, cgrey.

Hi,

May I check with you what is your entry price and closing price. At what time is it closed? I did my first trade today SELL at 08:01GMT at 1.61818 and closed 9:00GMT at 1.61955, I've a -14pips. Did I miss anything that my result is different from yours.
Will appreciate if you can enlighten me. Thanks

Cheers,
Osh
  • #577
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:47am Mar 8, 2011 4:47am
Quoting Jeheil
Interesting thread.

Would you consider ditching the days where the big RED fundamentals are announced....so US, UK reserve/fed meets and the unemployment figures...as surely these days would be wonky (to use a technical term)
For me, no. We want a big move. No matter what happens, the worst we're going to do is lose 20-pips. But, if we can get a 70 or 80 pip move in our favor, we can make our month. Aside from this system, I love the "big red" days - they're usually the ones that trigger some activity for my real trading.
  • #578
  • Mar 8, 2011 5:27am Mar 8, 2011 5:27am
Quoting oshonline
Hi,

May I check with you what is your entry price and closing price. At what time is it closed? I did my first trade today SELL at 08:01GMT at 1.61818 and closed 9:00GMT at 1.61955, I've a -14pips. Did I miss anything that my result is different from yours.
Will appreciate if you can enlighten me. Thanks

Cheers,
Osh
Today was a buy, not a sell.
  • #579
  • Mar 8, 2011 5:37am Mar 8, 2011 5:37am
Quoting oshonline
Hi,

May I check with you what is your entry price and closing price. At what time is it closed? I did my first trade today SELL at 08:01GMT at 1.61818 and closed 9:00GMT at 1.61955, I've a -14pips. Did I miss anything that my result is different from yours.
Will appreciate if you can enlighten me. Thanks

Cheers,
Osh
Hi Osh,

Midnight candle (GMT) open: 1.6193
8am (GMT) candle open: 1.6180
Trade: LONG

Check the first post again. Direction of trade is always back towards the midnight open. Ie 8am below, go long; if 8am above, go short.
  • #580
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:08pm Mar 8, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Jeheil
Interesting thread.

Would you consider ditching the days where the big RED fundamentals are announced....so US, UK reserve/fed meets and the unemployment figures...as surely these days would be wonky (to use a technical term)
Normally the UK centric news is released at midnight or 9.30 GMT. Since this strategy is centred based on the London opening at 8.00 GMT and closing at 9.00 GMT, the news anouncements shouldn't really matter. Also the US market is closed at this particular trading time and therefore should have no effect (any news announced on the previous day would already be in the price).

However, there is nothing wrong in avoiding certain days if you feel those days would be wonky - using your own technical term . It is worth testing your suggestion and I am sure others who are following this thread would be interested in the results if you decide to take this route.

Kind regards.
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