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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,021
  • Mar 5, 2011 4:37am Mar 5, 2011 4:37am
Quoting Steve Gill
Meshach

I looked back and read your document. You only mention volume once, and that is to justify your reasoning that GU is bearish because the last two daily candles have reduced volume. Not once do you mention the spread of the bar.

Your document is clearly nothing to do with VSA and belongs in the GBPUSD thread which I notice you'd already cross posted to there. It is your opinion on GU which you are more than entitled to have and best of luck to you, but this is a VSA thread. What I love about this thread is that it allows those that...
Thanks bro. I really don't do too much of VSA. I trade price action at support/resistance. I've come a long way to make my trading system 'balanced'. Check ur 1hr tf, we got a climax sell bar. Now drill down to ur 15min chart, I noticed a high volume bar around 19:45hrs (I'm on GMT+1). Place a horizontal line on 1.6260 and then draw ur 15min down trendline. I'm sure you can now see what the high volume was meant for? Coupled with climax selling which we saw earlier on. GU is set to move north. It might also intrest you to know that the 24period standard deviation (applied to weighted close) had its dev-2 @ 1.6243 after we hit 1.6660 lets see how long the distribution would take before the fall begins. Have a lovely trading week ahead
  • #15,022
  • Mar 5, 2011 4:59am Mar 5, 2011 4:59am
Quoting forexcompoun
Thanks bro. I really don't do too much of VSA. I trade price action at...
Hi Meshach

I'm afraid I'm not seeing what you are seeing. Can you please post a chart? Many thanks
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,023
  • Mar 5, 2011 5:06am Mar 5, 2011 5:06am
Quoting HiddenGap
What bars is the program calling End of a Rising Market?

End of a Rising Market should be NARROW range up bars with ultra high volume closing in the middle or high and into "fresh new territory". It should pretty much have the highest volume bar you can see for some time. What am I missing?

EDIT: That makes the bar a squat. Bill Williams says that all trends end with a squat as one of the last 3-5 intervals. No all trends...
You're not missing anything, I realise what an EORM should be and look like and I mentioned that TG had painted a couple yesterday. Malc asked me to post them so I did. It's the bar with the vertical line through it on both charts.
  • #15,024
  • Mar 5, 2011 5:09am Mar 5, 2011 5:09am
Quoting Mr J
Market didn't stop falling back mid-last year.

Anyway, if I am big and want to flip my position, I could best do it after price has punched above previous highs. As it approaches the high, there will be naturally be supply. Afterwards, the supply has quietened, possibly buying after liquidating, as well as encouraging many new buyers to enter the market. That is where I would sell. Getting it there for a reasonable cost is of course another matter, and if that isn't possible, a different strategy would be needed (and should already be enacted).

I...
I don't understand this post at all.
  • #15,025
  • Mar 5, 2011 5:36am Mar 5, 2011 5:36am
OK, my daily chart. After this, I'll stop, I promise LOL

On the 18th Jan, we can see some clear supply coming in. An up bar, on high volume closing off the highs.This halts the up move sideways, until we see a shakeout to remove the supply.

This shakeout allows us to move up beyond that previous supply until we reach the 1.6200 area where the SM is showing a lack of interest (at the moment) in the upside - no demand. We see the no demand followed by a hidden upthrust, and the market drifts back down to test the supply previously seen. As we move down we can see a successful test over 2 bars.

The market then churns into what I can only describe as a fight between the bulls and the bears, with the bulls winning. Ultra high volume on both days means plenty of selling in the first bar and plenty of buying in the 2nd - with the next bar up.

Wednesday's bar (2nd Mar) looks like clear no demand - I know the spread is a little wider than we'd like but the volume isn't supporting this up move.

Conclusion: based on the VSA principles seen in the monthly and weekly I'm certainly bullish on GU (which is great - I can't wait to buy my ipad for half price in the US again lol). However as we've reached this key congestion zone I mentioned in the monthly post, we have a tough time ahead. It could take months to punch through and right now I'd be watching for signs of distribution in case the SM decide it's not economically viable to absorb or spend too much time shaking out supply and they plan to re-accumulate again lower down.

Does anyone have any comments? More than happy to discuss/debate.

Edit: this interview with Mervyn King might make things interesting next week: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=283268
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6b D 4th mar.jpg Size: 240 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,026
  • Mar 5, 2011 5:50am Mar 5, 2011 5:50am
Quoting Steve Gill
OK, my daily chart. After this, I'll stop, I promise LOL

On the 18th Jan, we can see some clear supply coming in. An up bar, on high volume closing off the highs.This halts the up move sideways, until we see a shakeout to remove the supply.

This shakeout allows us to move up beyond that previous supply until we reach the 1.6200 area where the SM is showing a lack of interest (at the moment) in the upside - no demand. We see the no demand followed by a hidden upthrust, and the market drifts back down to test the supply previously seen. As we move...
Clear charts and good explanation, thanks Steve.

Based on that interview alone the pound has to be bullish!
  • #15,027
  • Mar 5, 2011 6:56am Mar 5, 2011 6:56am
Quoting KinsaleForex
...
Based on that interview alone the pound has to be bullish!
Well, everyone knows that based on inflation interest should go up but King said that is not time yet...so how market is going to interpret is question?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,028
  • Mar 5, 2011 8:59am Mar 5, 2011 8:59am
Can someone post a daily chart from esignal/tg for Cable spot? Malc or Steve maybe?

Cheers in advance.
  • #15,029
  • Mar 5, 2011 9:38am Mar 5, 2011 9:38am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Can someone post a daily chart from esignal/tg for Cable spot? Malc or Steve maybe?

Cheers in advance.
I've given you two for the price of one

Futures where we get proper daily volume (its one day out but I've photoshopped it along, so the last volume bar on the chart is thursdays) and Spot where I've used 1439 minutes. They are both based on 00:00 to 23:59 GMT.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6e D 5th mar.jpg Size: 218 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR spot 1439 5th mar.jpg Size: 193 KB
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  • #15,030
  • Mar 5, 2011 9:39am Mar 5, 2011 9:39am
Quoting KinsaleForex
for Cable spot?
If I could read I'd be dangerous...

Sorry, just noticed. I'll do that in 2 secs.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,031
  • Mar 5, 2011 9:42am Mar 5, 2011 9:42am
Cable 1439. I've highlighted thursday's bar which is the last bar on my futures chart from a few hours ago.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP 1439 5th mar.jpg Size: 216 KB
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  • #15,032
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:10am Mar 5, 2011 10:10am
Cheers for that Steve, forgot about the 1439 thing, could've done that meself!

Thanks again.
  • #15,033
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:12am Mar 5, 2011 10:12am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Cheers for that Steve, forgot about the 1439 thing, could've done that meself!

Thanks again.
Spot Forex via Esignal doesn't give me daily unfortunately, so 1439 is the closest we can get.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,034
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:21am Mar 5, 2011 10:21am
Quoting Steve Gill
Spot Forex via Esignal doesn't give me daily unfortunately, so 1439 is the closest we can get.
It's as good as, 1 min isn't going to make a significant difference on a day to day basis!
  • #15,035
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:33am Mar 5, 2011 10:33am
Hi Steve,
I have been looking through some of your charts and i do not understand why there seem to be differences in volume for charts of the same timeframe...?

GBP
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1299339720 (do you know why does the bars on the left hand side of the chart look wierd...?)
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1299323423
-----------------------------------------------------------------
EURO
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1298934974
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1298934611

I am quite confused why the difference with 'globex dynamic' and 'dynamic' charts, since they are both for same currency...
-----------------------------------------------------------------
British Pound
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1299238720
and
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1299238720

I am not sure if i have misunderstood something... some of the candles dun look quite the same as on the second chart... did it repaint the candles and volume or what happened..?

pls advise, thanks!
  • #15,036
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:39am Mar 5, 2011 10:39am
Quoting Mtm
Hi Steve,
I have been looking through some of your charts and i do not understand why there seem to be differences in volume for charts of the same timeframe...?
I can answer most of that

1. I have no idea why the 1439 minute candles look different earlier on (about a week ago) - I can only speculate that something I've changed when messing around with esignal timeframes has started it recording correctly.
2. Your first two comparisons of GBP and then Euro are showing Futures versus Spot, so the volume will be different.
3. The last two compares are because in Esignal I can set the timeframe when bars start - so in the first example its 240 minutes starting at 00:00 GMT, and in the 2nd its 240 minutes but starting at 06:00 GMT.

Simple as that

Apologies for any confusion caused.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,037
  • Edited 12:11pm Mar 5, 2011 10:48am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting Steve Gill
I can answer most of that

1. I have no idea why the 1439 minute candles look different earlier on (about a week ago) - I can only speculate that something I've changed when messing around with esignal timeframes has started it recording correctly.
2. Your first two comparisons of GBP and then Euro are showing Futures versus Spot, so the volume will be different.
3. The last two compares are because in Esignal I can set the timeframe when bars start - so in the first example its 240 minutes starting at 00:00 GMT,...

Thanks for the quick respond!

I am looking at this :
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1299323423

the volume looks proper for the above, but when i view this other "globex dynamic" chart:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1298934974
the volume looks odd... as some volume bar are very high and suddenly the next bar is very low, and the next bar become very high again, and so on... can i know why is this?

Are the above chart same kind? is it futures or spot?
  • #15,038
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:53am Mar 5, 2011 10:53am
Hello friends: Here is a buy stop setup off of a failed NS test into NY open from 1/8/2010. This is interesting because it shows an example of how big capital/market makers misdirect the EU market prior to a big rally.

The 1st chart is a 1H from 1-5-10 to 1-8-10 showing strength in the background; the 2nd chart is a 15M showing the failed NS test and reversal bars.

Many Thanks to the Readers and Best Wishes to All
****************
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1h strength in background.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 15m 1-8-10 rally buy stop.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #15,039
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:02am Mar 5, 2011 11:02am
Quoting Mtm
the volume looks odd... as some volume bar are very high and suddenly the next bar is very low, and the next bar become very high again, and so on... can i know why is this?

Are the above chart same kind? is it futures or spot?
Both are futures chart but the second I call the 'Malc' chart because if you look in the top left corner you can see that its daily starts at 09:00, a preferred start time for Malc's sub 24hour timeframe charts. To be honest it was a mistake, I should have changed the time to 00:00 24 hour before producing that chart.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,040
  • Mar 5, 2011 11:16am Mar 5, 2011 11:16am
what was misdirected ? check background of euro this week.....



Quoting rbumbalough
Hello friends: Here is a buy stop setup off of a failed NS test into NY open from 1/8/2010. This is interesting because it shows an example of how big capital/market makers misdirect the EU market prior to a big rally.

The 1st chart is a 1H from 1-5-10 to 1-8-10 showing strength in the background; the 2nd chart is a 15M showing the failed NS test and reversal bars.

Many Thanks to the Readers and Best Wishes to All
****************
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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