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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,761
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:47am Mar 3, 2011 9:47am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I know someone in this thread who would say that he is lying. No names
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,762
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:52am Mar 3, 2011 9:52am
Quoting willkohsg
Hi Steve,
thanks for the advice. I am still noob in my interpretation of the volume.
you're right an hourly engulfing red candle isnt strength.
i guess i was looking at M15 and M30 and thought it was a low volume test looking at the low volume down candles after the up move.

my interpretation of the high volume up candle was wrong too.
initially i thought it was high volume pushing price higher.
but the second Up candle didnt move up and formed a stopping volume and a 2 bar reversal on M15 as shown in the attached chart..

my mistake...
Remember VSA is not about one bar, its about background. Look to the left and you will see accumulation and selling at 6330-6340 level for an extended period of time. Do you notice where the close of the candle you highlighted was? It went right into the previous area of supply and immediately rejected.
  • #14,763
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:54am Mar 3, 2011 9:54am
Quoting rogerdoger
is vsa easier to learn on equities since you'll generally be trading on higher TFs?
For beginners I personally find it's slightly easier - greater visibility of ultra high volume bars that stand out a mile.

Have a look at the daily RBS chart for examples. I use VSA to manage my SIPP where I can only buy new shares or sell existing shares (i.e. I cannot short) and have almost trebled it's value since withdrawing it from Standard Life about 1.5 years ago.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,764
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:55am Mar 3, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Remember VSA is not about one bar, its about background. Look to the left and you will see accumulation and selling at 6330-6340 level for an extended period of time. Do you notice where the close of the candle you highlighted was? It went right into the previous area of supply and immediately rejected.
yeah i see it now.. should have put on my wideview googles

price was rising into supply zone and it got hit. thanks for taking time to explain.. appreciate it a lot..

i guess i should have been more cautious as we're still in that range capped but that
selling from 6330-6340 on top and bottom at around 6265-6255 at the bottom..
  • #14,765
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:55am Mar 3, 2011 9:55am
Quoting Sonofsin5
lol you are right I wrote to fast. I want to see 1.4 on the Eur today. Jeez we have some English teachers taking up trading now. haha.
lol
Number #1 in PnL and Pips on Dukascopy Trader Contest since 2011
  • #14,766
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:56am Mar 3, 2011 9:56am
Question to those more experienced in VSA than me (which is most on here) could one trade High Impact news and Press Conferences based on the clues the big boys through into the charts? I guess the biggest wrench would be if what the big money "expects" to happen either doesn't or the opposite happens.

Done trading today so I am doing my daily look back to see how we have gotten to the charts we see before us.

Looking at the EU leading into the US data and ECB conference it almost appears that the big boys were showing us that they were planning on taking this pair higher if ECB and US data played out as they were "expecting".

The 5 min chart had the initial SO off 3830 which I traded based on my plan from yesterday and then price sort of drifted down with only 1 5min bar ever closing below the trigger level created by the 15min SO candle (and price was brought right back up on the next bar). The last 3 bars right before the news / conference played out on my charts as a higher vol test which closed above the trigger on it's high (as a pin bar), the a NS and then an upbar on increasing volume... The very next news bar started down almost as a shake out but never got to the days low which would have been the safest SL IMHO and then went up and would have triggered the long trade within 2 bars of the NS.

Am I seeing this right and could this have been traded or is this all just hindsight and a fluke that the clues seem to fit?
Attached Image
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,767
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:59am Mar 3, 2011 9:59am
Thanks for your reply. Hope everybody received Trichet's telegram before he press the launch button.

Quoting pres78
Since EUR was much more affected than GBP I can only assume the ECB conference. Trichet hinted to possible rate hike next month.
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  • #14,768
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:01am Mar 3, 2011 10:01am
Quoting pres78
Got up a little later this morning (around 5 AM) around 1 hr after LO....
Hey pres78, just wana say here,
i love ur charts n explainations. keep it up man
  • #14,769
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:09am Mar 3, 2011 10:09am
Quoting pres78
Question to those more experienced in VSA than me (which is most on here) could one trade High Impact news and Press Conferences based on the clues the big boys through into the charts?...
Your analysis seems sound but if some of the hierarchy here could shed some light on it that'd be good. I had a 20min entry (shown below) and very nearly got stopped out. Was I right to go long in the first place or did I get lucky?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,770
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:11am Mar 3, 2011 10:11am
Quoting willkohsg
Hey pres78, just wana say here,
i love ur charts n explainations. keep it up man
Many thanks...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,771
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:14am Mar 3, 2011 10:14am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Your analysis seems sound but if some of the hierarchy here could shed some light on it that'd be good. I had a 20min entry (shown below) and very nearly got stopped out. Was I right to go long in the first place or did I get lucky?
Please bear in mind, i'm no VSA expert.

Where did you enter? Immediately after the NS bar? A bit early, but still a sound enough entry imo.

But, there were 2 down 'tests' on slightly higher volumes following that NS signal. The safest entry that I can see would be the breakout level. The last bar before the break higher looks bearish to me, so yes, I think you got a bit lucky.

Congrats though.
  • #14,772
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:28am Mar 3, 2011 10:28am
Hey pres,

Quoting pres78
Question to those more experienced in VSA than me (which is most on here) could one trade High Impact news and Press Conferences based on the clues the big boys through into the charts? I guess the biggest wrench would be if what the big money "expects" to happen either doesn't or the opposite happens.
well, I'm not a "more experienced" one in VSA but from my point of view
I'd say that SM generally push higher/lower price with low volume
before news, to book and maximize their profit later..
Eg. today they've pushed price down before news .. and later the price rose.
They don't even care about the news itself... it's just a mean to push price
in the *right* direction ..

Anyway, look forward to hear of some real experienced VSA guy here

Btw, interesting question, pres

best,
Indiana
  • #14,773
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:31am Mar 3, 2011 10:31am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Please bear in mind, i'm no VSA expert.

Where did you enter? Immediately after the NS bar? A bit early, but still a sound enough entry imo.

But, there were 2 down 'tests' on slightly higher volumes following that NS signal. The safest entry that I can see would be the breakout level. The last bar before the break higher looks bearish to me, so yes, I think you got a bit lucky.

Congrats though.
Yeah, the high of the NS bar i've highlighted was my entry price.

Cheers for the feedback.
  • #14,774
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:57am Mar 3, 2011 10:57am
Quoting polomine
Hello,

Hope you all made pips today. Can anybody tell me which news launched euro two hours ago? US unemployment data or ECB conference? Although it is not vsa related, I am just curious.

polomine
I can give you a play by play - because I woke up 3 minutes before 8:30am NY, and was not mentally prepared to play and trade the events, as I should have been.

EU had a textbook touch of the pivot 4 hours before the 8:30 news - a bullish sign of it's own. As the US data came out right at 8:30, there was the EU reaction to it as positive for the USD, coming down for a minute to test and almost touch the DPP again. Buying ensued and it back-and-forthed for 1-2 minutes. Then, as the Trichet conference was already underway, he announced the likelihood of raising rates at the next ECB meeting. EU took off (the DPP) and produced that 95 pip M5 bar. I'd taken some 30 pips and am nursing a buy at 1.3927 for now. Am thinking a breach of the last high is still possible today, but just shy of 1.4 for the NY day - there is a lot of buying pressure behind us, and the likelihood of a further pop/high is fairly good IMO (for today's NY session), plus more action during Asia and London.

I had unfortunately tuned in US Bloomberg (online) and stupid me was wondering where the Trichet conference was, and then realized EU Bloomberg was carrying it.

I got in way too late, but have taken a lesson from it and been reminded: CB talk of a bank rate rise, or the actual event is good for a few hundred pips, and buy limits are employable. It is one of the few news events I (try) to trade.
  • #14,775
  • Edited 11:09am Mar 3, 2011 11:00am | Edited 11:09am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Your analysis seems sound but if some of the hierarchy here could shed some light on it that'd be good. I had a 20min entry (shown below) and very nearly got stopped out. Was I right to go long in the first place or did I get lucky?
My only problem with your entry is that it (and prior price action in the previous few hours) wasn't at a big enough support level. The price had what I'd describe as 'ranging potential'. I'd have waited until the price showed strength and testing closer to 1.3800 through 1.3820, or taken the trade where you did but widened your stop (and reduced your lot size accordingly) until it was below this support level.

Stops should really be below support when going long.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,776
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:08am Mar 3, 2011 11:08am
Quoting Steve Gill
My only problem with your entry is that it (and prior price action in the previous few hours) wasn't at a big enough resistance level. The price had what I'd describe as 'ranging potential'. I'd have waited until the price showed strength and testing closer to 1.3800 through 1.3820, or taken the trade where you did but widened your stop (and reduced your lot size accordingly) until it was below this resistance level.

Stops should really be below resistance when going long.
Cool, cheers, i think i'm still having a few issues identifying all the different areas of resistance/support. Something to work on anyway. Thanks for the feedback.
  • #14,777
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:09am Mar 3, 2011 11:09am
Quoting KinsaleForex
Cool, cheers, i think i'm still having a few issues identifying all the different areas of resistance/support. Something to work on anyway. Thanks for the feedback.
Just realised I wrote resistance when I meant support! Sorry LOL
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,778
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:12am Mar 3, 2011 11:12am
Quoting polomine
Hello,

Hope you all made pips today. Can anybody tell me which news launched euro two hours ago? US unemployment data or ECB conference? Although it is not vsa related, I am just curious.

polomine
BOTH the news, especially both are RED, gave the BB a GOOD EXCUSE to Rocket the EUR/USD.

Both Red means "Double Whammy" or "Double Bang", depending on whether your are short or long.

Even if one news bring it down temporarily, the other news will bring it up.

In that respect it is relevant to VSA when just observe the Daily Background Strength and the Overall Volume and Tight Price Range for today from Asia till US where 1.3830 was tested yesterday and again twice tested today.
Then knowing got 2 Red News at critical same time, means market will explode one way or the other.
  • #14,779
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:15am Mar 3, 2011 11:15am
Quoting pres78
Question to those more experienced in VSA than me (which is most on here) could one trade High Impact news and Press Conferences based on the clues the big boys through into the charts?...
Great analysis. And hopefully you don't mind my throwing some different perspective on this.

The setup prior to the 95 pip M5 bar is there. BUT, I think we see that set up fairly frequently, and, it doesn't usually return 95 pips or the ~130 we saw. Sometimes, it goes the wrong way. I mention that because, had Trichet not said anything about a rate hike, or threw cold water on it, we could well have been looking at 50-100 pips down.

My only point is that the news here launched us up, & took Buy Stops up with it. Sure there was an inkling of Trichet to handle things as he did, but it could almost have easily have gone the other way, and the setup would have been negated.

Bottom line, fundamentals fit the VSA play here, but they don't always. That's the nature of the beast(s). My humble input is that the (downwards) reach for the DPP with what ended up being that 95pip M5 bar was a better sign that we were going up - in concert with the previous chart strength. I tried to outline that buying on the way up (per my previous note) is as good if not safer a strategy, once the trend is underway (and news is out there).

It of course happens incredibly quickly, and with that VSA principle of pros selling into strength, I personally find huge mental blockage in pressing the buy button - I need to work on reiterating the meaning and strength behind that bottom support (in this case DPP) bounce. And maybe wake up earlier than 3 minutes before the news.
  • #14,780
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:20am Mar 3, 2011 11:20am
Quoting polomine
For those who want to see HLC bars chart with more timeframe options.

polomine
Where have these been all my life
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