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vsa with Malcolm

  • #14,741
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:53am Mar 3, 2011 8:53am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Common 1.4
Not sure I understand.

Come on 1.4? I understand.

Common 1.4? I don't.
Le singe est dans l'arbre
  • #14,742
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:02am Mar 3, 2011 9:02am
Quoting pres78
I would like to see a move down and either a shake out or low volume test in the 3830-3840 area followed by a move up into 3970-3980 high for Thursday.
Got to love it when a plan comes together... I got my long entry off a SO into 3830 and we hit a high so far at 3972.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,743
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:03am Mar 3, 2011 9:03am
Quoting hi6hlander
Not sure I understand.

Come on 1.4? I understand.

Common 1.4? I don't.
lol you are right I wrote to fast. I want to see 1.4 on the Eur today. Jeez we have some English teachers taking up trading now. haha.
  • #14,744
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:03am Mar 3, 2011 9:03am
Can we say that this up move is weak? And it won't go far away?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,745
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:08am Mar 3, 2011 9:08am
hey guys,
i am confused with GU, anyone can explain what's going on now?
here's a chart..
price dropping but on low volume.. looks like a test?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU test.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #14,746
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:08am Mar 3, 2011 9:08am
Quoting willkohsg
hi guys was wondering if the more experienced VSAers
here could explain with a chart what we just saw in EU just now.

I seen stopping volume on M5 on EURUSD just before the rocket move
attached a before and after chart on M5

my question is: how can we use VSA in this case to get in longs before the
price move?
The key here was the background - see my post from late last night. Strength was in the background (monthly, weekly, daily, 2h - you name it) and supply had been dried up (certainly to a manageable level).

With news such as this you were going to see one of two things - a shakeout of the weak holders, or a move up like we did. I think the shakeout was unlikely as we've spent the last few days clearing the last of the supply, and as price was remaining above the POC and not even going down to test it, this morning looked more likely that the SM would use news to move a wide spread to the upside.

All that being said I think with big news days sometimes it is better to sit out of the market on those days and let the setups come to you. If we'd been below resistance when this news came out we could have seen a shakeout which could have hit your stop had you been long. When I started I wanted to catch these big moves - 100 pips in 5 minutes, who wouldn't? But its not as easy as that - the SM doesn't let themselves get shaken out but we retail traders can't afford the same - we need stop losses in place.

If the market had moved down to 1.3820/1.38 and shown signs of strength, with tests or no supplys, I'd have gone long and tried to get my SL to B/E before the news announcement. However it showed SOS around 1.3840 but that wasn't at a big enough resistance level for my liking. Each trader to their own.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,747
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:10am Mar 3, 2011 9:10am
is vsa easier to learn on equities since you'll generally be trading on higher TFs?
  • #14,748
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:14am Mar 3, 2011 9:14am
Quoting rogerdoger
is vsa easier to learn on equities since you'll generally be trading on higher TFs?
Not necessarily. You can use higher time frames in the Forex market as well. You can also trade stocks intra-day with vsa as it shows supply and demand the same as it would on a higher time frame.
  • #14,749
  • Edited 9:23am Mar 3, 2011 9:15am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting willkohsg
hey guys,
i am confused with GU, anyone can explain what's going on now?
probably with charts would be good..
price dropping but on low volume.. a test?
A 2 bar reversal on the hourly where the down bar completely encloses the upbar isn't strength. There was selling on that up bar and clear weakness in the background.

I don't follow GU but I notice the price is back down to the POC. I personally wouldn't be buying right now - I'd be looking at the background on different time frames first. I'd be watching for no demands and upthrusts around 1.6270 right now, to see if they're going to move it back up or not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6b 1h 3rd mar.jpg Size: 192 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #14,750
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:21am Mar 3, 2011 9:21am
In my opinion the GU looks very weak and I would not be buying it until I saw some sort of strength on the 15m time frame and above. However, with the strength in the Eur this morning its possible that it will cap any losses on the GU to a minimum; so for now I would just avoid the pair.

The weakness you see I see as well, look at the 30 min, clear selling from 63400.
  • #14,751
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:25am Mar 3, 2011 9:25am
So now it is all quiet till NFP tomorrow? Where NFP takes us? Anyone?
  • #14,752
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:26am Mar 3, 2011 9:26am
Quoting 1pipperhour
So now it is all quiet till NFP tomorrow? Where NFP takes us? Anyone?
1.41 or 1.37
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,753
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:27am Mar 3, 2011 9:27am
Quoting pres78
1.41 or 1.37
I wouldn't be surprised.
  • #14,754
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:28am Mar 3, 2011 9:28am
Quoting pres78
1.41 or 1.37
Good call
  • #14,755
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:32am Mar 3, 2011 9:32am
Quoting 1pipperhour
So now it is all quiet till NFP tomorrow? Where NFP takes us? Anyone?
1.50 easy.

Been fucking about for too long trying to get 1.40, it'll blow through that and keep going.

You heard it here first.
  • #14,756
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:38am Mar 3, 2011 9:38am
Hello,

Hope you all made pips today. Can anybody tell me which news launched euro two hours ago? US unemployment data or ECB conference? Although it is not vsa related, I am just curious.

polomine
  • #14,757
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:40am Mar 3, 2011 9:40am
Quoting polomine
Hello,

Hope you all made pips today. Can anybody tell me which news launched euro two hours ago? US unemployment data or ECB conference? Although it is not vsa related, I am just curious.

polomine
Since EUR was much more affected than GBP I can only assume the ECB conference. Trichet hinted to possible rate hike next month.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #14,758
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:42am Mar 3, 2011 9:42am
Quoting pres78
Since EUR was much more affected than GBP I can only assume the ECB conference. Trichet hinted to possible rate hike next month.
The US unemployment data was good so I guess selling would have been on the cards if we were to trade the news. Just as well we don't!
  • #14,759
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:44am Mar 3, 2011 9:44am
Quoting pres78
Since EUR was much more affected than GBP I can only assume the ECB conference. Trichet hinted to possible rate hike next month.
I know someone in this thread who would say that he is lying. No names
  • #14,760
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:47am Mar 3, 2011 9:47am
Quoting Steve Gill
A 2 bar reversal on the hourly where the down bar completely encloses the upbar isn't strength. There was selling on that up bar and clear weakness in the background.

I don't follow GU but I notice the price is back down to the POC. I personally wouldn't be buying right now - I'd be looking at the background on different time frames first. I'd be watching for no demands and upthrusts around 1.6270 right now, to see if they're going to move it back up or not.
Hi Steve,
thanks for the advice. I am still noob in my interpretation of the volume.
you're right an hourly engulfing red candle isnt strength.
i guess i was looking at M15 and M30 and thought it was a low volume test looking at the low volume down candles after the up move.

my interpretation of the high volume up candle was wrong too.
initially i thought it was high volume pushing price higher.
but the second Up candle didnt move up and formed a stopping volume and a 2 bar reversal on M15 as shown in the attached chart..

my mistake wasnt too fatal, already closed most of my longs at 1.6286 when i had the chance...

Quoting Sonofsin5
In my opinion the GU looks very weak and I would not be buying it until I saw some sort of strength on the 15m time frame and above. However, with the strength in the Eur this morning its possible that it will cap any losses on the GU to a minimum; so for now I would just avoid the pair.

The weakness you see I see as well, look at the 30 min, clear selling from 63400.
Hi Sono,
thanks for the advice.
attached a chart here.

is the selling into the upmove on the red volume bar here?
i thought that was buyer's pushing the price up.. sorry if i interpret it wrongly
and what is the correct interpretation? thanks in advance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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