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NZD/USD

  • #201
  • Mar 1, 2011 8:50pm Mar 1, 2011 8:50pm
Quoting kimd
NZ PM says quake will cost 15bn dollars, and to expect a rate cut
Thanks.
  • #202
  • Mar 1, 2011 8:55pm Mar 1, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting kimd
NZ PM says quake will cost 15bn dollars, and to expect a rate cut
At what level do you gather the bulls to charge at the bears again?
  • #203
  • Mar 1, 2011 9:05pm Mar 1, 2011 9:05pm
Quoting zxozzi
At what level do you gather the bulls to charge at the bears again?
Next fib extension (100%) at 7324
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #204
  • Mar 2, 2011 2:45am Mar 2, 2011 2:45am
Quoting jezek5
Daily inside bar on kiwi,demand zone just below.
For me this is a case of buy a break of .7510,
or sell a break of .7420.
I really have no idea which way this could go,
being Friday i might just leave it till next week.
Time to wait and see,if you click through my quote you can see the same
chart several days ago,didn't think we'd make down here but at least i was not in it long,probably no more trades this week on this but you never know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi4.gif Size: 11 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #205
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:34am Mar 2, 2011 6:34am
Ok,after all my bullishness on this pair
i'm just stalking a quick short scalp,
if we could clear 7415 there might be a fast 20 or 30pips,
we'll see i guess.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #206
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:45am Mar 2, 2011 6:45am
short at 20,problem is wrong time of day,15 pip stop.
Looking to retest 7390.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #207
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:49am Mar 2, 2011 6:49am
Needs to stay below 7413
to continue.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #208
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:13am Mar 2, 2011 7:13am
Quoting jezek5
Needs to stay below 7413
to continue.
Out 7408,reasons,moving to slow,
can't read it and news soon.
Yes it might keep going down
but don't like the risk.
I was looking for a faster move.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #209
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:00am Mar 2, 2011 8:00am
Not going to post so much but,if 7400 holds
and we stay above 7418 there should be a long in it.
Still looks a little heavy though.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #210
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:30am Mar 2, 2011 10:30am
Quoting jezek5
Not going to post so much but,if 7400 holds
and we stay above 7418 there should be a long in it.
Still looks a little heavy though.
Cheers.
Well,i took a long at 7420 as planed and got out at 7438,
i know its after the fact and i really don't expect anyone
to believe me but i just wanted to say how wrong i
was to trade the Kiwi today,at the time it just looked
like it had more moves in it,made money but got it very wrong.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #211
  • Mar 3, 2011 7:45am Mar 3, 2011 7:45am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD H4 Bullish Divergence.PNG Size: 63 KB
  • #212
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:37am Mar 3, 2011 9:37am
Ok,this is looking like next stop 7350 or 7325
NFP tomorrow may change that,scalping shorts at present.
Posted weekly chart because its easier to see levels.
Yellow lines are daily fib expansion,
red are weekly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p1.gif Size: 10 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #213
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:25am Mar 3, 2011 11:25am
Despite the fact that Euro, Aussie and Pound is bullish, Kiwi is losing value against dollar massively. This is happening because of fundamental news. Pair did broke weekly support and is trying to break round support (0.9400). Further sell options at downward trendline / WS1. One short position is floating +110 pips.
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-u.../nzdusd_d5.png
Regards
  • #214
  • Edited 3:24am Mar 4, 2011 3:11am | Edited 3:24am
Quoting jezek5
Ok,this is looking like next stop 7350 or 7325
NFP tomorrow may change that,scalping shorts at present.
Posted weekly chart because its easier to see levels.
Yellow lines are daily fib expansion,
red are weekly.
Still going the right way for now,
will check again next week.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #215
  • Edited 1:21pm Mar 5, 2011 4:39am | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting jezek5
Still going the right way for now,
will check again next week.

Break out of inside bar yesterday,a test of lower level
and a small pull back,closing last night right at point of
break out.
Question is was the pull back short covering or real buying.
Price action over the next day or so will give us a better idea.
I think i will be buying dips early in the week but its to early
to know for sure yet.
Cheers.
Oh yea,forgot to say,we are testing a possible demand zone,
hence my preferance to long rather than short,not sure this
one will hold it yet though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p1.gif Size: 10 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #216
  • Mar 5, 2011 5:05am Mar 5, 2011 5:05am
And just for fun this is what the hourly looks like,
big red bar NFP selling and perhaps just short covering
to bring us back to the open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p1.gif Size: 10 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #217
  • Mar 6, 2011 12:49am Mar 6, 2011 12:49am
^agreed, however things might be a different story if there is a 50bp rate cut next week. The market has fully priced in a 25bp cut, if this happens with a slightly hawkish commentary the kiwi might really change its tune with the right risk sentiment in the market.
  • #218
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:51am Mar 6, 2011 5:51am
Quoting gleem
^agreed, however things might be a different story if there is a 50bp rate cut next week. The market has fully priced in a 25bp cut, if this happens with a slightly hawkish commentary the kiwi might really change its tune with the right risk sentiment in the market.
Oh yes Gleem,those bleedin unkowns,
thank goodness for stop losses.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #219
  • Mar 6, 2011 9:54pm Mar 6, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting gleem
^agreed, however things might be a different story if there is a 50bp rate cut next week. The market has fully priced in a 25bp cut, if this happens with a slightly hawkish commentary the kiwi might really change its tune with the right risk sentiment in the market.
Key is tried to manage our expectation at the worst. Maybe rate cut next time.
  • #220
  • Mar 7, 2011 2:27am Mar 7, 2011 2:27am
White flag.....NZD continues to slide.
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