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Higher low, lower high system

  • #3,941
  • Mar 2, 2011 4:24am Mar 2, 2011 4:24am
Hey V, i took this trade this morning but didnt work out .. whats your opinion on this ? what do you think i did wrong here ?

on the chart i noticed the higher low (first red arrow) and took the long break (horizontal line) ... price poked though then droped quickley in opposite direction ...


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Thanks
Dan
  • #3,942
  • Mar 2, 2011 4:53am Mar 2, 2011 4:53am
Quoting dan89
Hey V, i took this trade this morning but didnt work out .. whats your opinion on this ? what do you think i did wrong here ?

on the chart i noticed the higher low (first red arrow) and took the long break (horizontal line) ... price poked though then droped quickley in opposite direction ...


Attachment



Thanks
Dan
Hi Dan
Its prob just one of those things. Its a clear hl after the news and the 15 min had closed pos with little upper wick.

Price was bouncing between 50% of Y's range and 38% of high/M3 combo. We were undecided (but could just have easily bought where you did) and waited until the next hl that just followed your trade. We waited for a 15 min doji to roll around and another 15 min pos close candle happened.

We got our 2nd trade of the day entry at 6291.

We had a buy on eur 8.40 gmt 3778.

So 2 trades today, no losers (thats always a bonus). Mon 1 trade 1 win, Y did not trade.
  • #3,943
  • Mar 2, 2011 4:56am Mar 2, 2011 4:56am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Dan
Its prob just one of those things. Its a clear hl after the news and the 15 min had closed pos with little upper wick.

Price was bouncing between 50% of Y's range and 38% of high/M3 combo. We were undecided (but could just have easily bought where you did) and waited until the next hl that just followed your trade. We waited for a 15 min doji to roll around and another 15 min pos close candle happened.

We got our 2nd trade of the day entry at 6291.

We had a buy on eur 8.40 gmt 3778.

So 2 trades today, no losers (thats always a bonus)....
Forgot to add stop would have needed to be about 6266 ie the last low, if that was too big either leave trade or adjust trade size. I know I usually say 15-20 but seeing the work on a couple of 1 2 3 type threads I'm looking more at having stop beyond last swing low.
  • #3,944
  • Mar 2, 2011 4:59am Mar 2, 2011 4:59am
Didn't take a pic of gu buy Mrs V wanted my finger on exit button as we would have exited at BE on a quick spike down from 6300 which never happened. A nice little 85-15 trade.

Both trades followed good pos close 15 min candles.
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  • #3,945
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:03am Mar 2, 2011 5:03am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Dan
Its prob just one of those things. Its a clear hl after the news and the 15 min had closed pos with little upper wick.

Price was bouncing between 50% of Y's range and 38% of high/M3 combo. We were undecided (but could just have easily bought where you did) and waited until the next hl that just followed your trade. We waited for a 15 min doji to roll around and another 15 min pos close candle happened.
Mrs V reminded me, we discussed it could just as easily be a lh as hl and we had that big news shooting star on 15 min and thats why we waited for price to settle a little more.
  • #3,946
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:06am Mar 2, 2011 5:06am
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V reminded me, we discussed it could just as easily be a lh as hl and we had that big news shooting star on 15 min and thats why we waited for price to settle a little more.
Of course waiting does mean we miss some trades but we are it seems still prepared to be more patient.
  • #3,947
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:37am Mar 2, 2011 5:37am
Hey V, Thanks for the help ... the trade would have eventually worked out as the stop was below the last swing low. But yeah the stop loss was pretty big ...i try to get 1:2 Risk Reward and this trade would have been difficult for that

Thanks
Dan
  • #3,948
  • Mar 3, 2011 10:49am Mar 3, 2011 10:49am
anyone get any trades on GU today ? ... couldnt find any myself that i liked.
  • #3,949
  • Mar 4, 2011 12:39am Mar 4, 2011 12:39am
Quoting dan89
anyone get any trades on GU today ? ... couldnt find any myself that i liked.
No gu trades, had one eur sell.
  • #3,950
  • Mar 4, 2011 1:38am Mar 4, 2011 1:38am
We are going away in about 2 hours or so for the weekend. Its NFP day, freaky friday (so far) so we might just give a skip. I'll hang around for a while in between packing stuff etc etc.

GU showing supp at 6275 for a poss Frankie half hour reversal, twt.
  • #3,951
  • Mar 4, 2011 9:42am Mar 4, 2011 9:42am
Have a nice weekend V !

Dan
  • #3,952
  • Mar 5, 2011 8:13pm Mar 5, 2011 8:13pm
Quoting dan89
Have a nice weekend V !

Dan
happy weekend,

There I wanted to ask,,
What's wrong with this system can use insider bar?
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #3,953
  • Mar 6, 2011 12:05pm Mar 6, 2011 12:05pm
Quoting andelumut
happy weekend,

There I wanted to ask,,
What's wrong with this system can use insider bar?
Can definitely use an inside bar if its a hl or lh.
  • #3,954
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:00am Mar 8, 2011 3:00am
Posted this on psych levels thread because those levels were important deciding factors in this trade ie Y's low and 50 level.

D chart has a shooting star Y and massive histo div on macd 5 15 for a sell.

In move down through 50 level sold 15 min shooting star, 5 min lh shooting star little/no lower wick. Out +22 when 25 psych level/38% ext of Y's range/M1 combo held for 2nd time.
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  • #3,955
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:42am Mar 8, 2011 4:42am
We had a lh sell 3928, after a couple of attempts to go lower out at -5 after a 15 min hammer.

I'll wait now until after 12 gmt when US should wake up a little.
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  • #3,956
  • Edited 2:36am Mar 10, 2011 2:34am | Edited 2:36am
1hr in downtrend, 15 min had several doji's in a row. 5 min shows numerous candle lower highs suggesting a move down. We waited for solid closes at the bottom with little/no lower wicks to confirm likelihood of move down.

Target was Tues low and I wanted to exit 60% at 25 level and let bal run but had forgotten to change back the lots. So all out +14.

Mrs V not pee'd off with me at all, my anatomy safe from the dreaded blunt spoon.

Oh well pips is pips!
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  • #3,957
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:57am Mar 11, 2011 4:57am
Also posted on psych levels thread. Just showing here to keep thread ticking over.

I was watching the tv, the Japanese earthquake. Mrs V got a sell at 3810 exit for +17. Her target the prev lows around 3790.

1hr pos close was basically all from 1 5 min candle, that push up had no follow through so it was a matter of waiting for the turn around. Lots of 15 min upper wicks, had 15 min neg close, 5 min lh little/no lower wick so a relatively straight forward decision.

We have only had 1 losing trade (yes 5 pips) in the first 2 weeks of the month so we are quite happy. Obviously thats much better than the norm and we'll take it whilst its going!! We looked back at several losing trades over the last few months and stretching the definition of entry candles seems to have been the biggest cause of problems. Still taking significantly fewer trades than several months ago but thats fine. We are really trying to focus on patience and taking the right trades, good 15 min set ups key lately.
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  • #3,958
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:09am Mar 11, 2011 5:09am
We didn't take this hl and perhaps a good example of being selective. 1hr was a hammer and 15 min a pos close, so that certainly suggests buy.

15 min did have an upper wick at the M M3, 38% fib of Y's range D pivot combo around 3830. It was the 2nd move in run, we had a 20+ pip candle just before, against the strong neg close Y. Put it all together and we decided not to take the 1 red candle hl buy at 3833.

Mrs V's mantra lately changing from +20 pips bank to we don't have to take every trade (we are most certainly not doing that) theres a good set up coming.
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  • #3,959
  • Edited 6:22am Mar 11, 2011 5:52am | Edited 6:22am
Hi Vantage, First post here but been following for quite a while and just want to thank you for all you share which I consider to be beyond generous.

I didn't take but wondered if you would have considered this. Was just after news and FH was positive close on 1hr but similar setup to EU ie most of move after LO was in one 5min candle and little follow through. Also trigger took out low of FH.

In summary: 15min neg close, 5min lh little/no lower wick reject of yest. low and entry taking out low of FH bar plus break of 25 psych level..

Poss targets 1.6/S1/low from 16th Feb.

Edit: Apologies for poor quality images.
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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #3,960
  • Edited 7:10am Mar 11, 2011 7:07am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting Ian
Hi Vantage, First post here but been following for quite a while and just want to thank you for all you share which I consider to be beyond generous.

I didn't take but wondered if you would have considered this. Was just after news and FH was positive close on 1hr but similar setup to EU ie most of move after LO was in one 5min candle and little follow through. Also trigger took out low of FH.

In summary: 15min neg close, 5min lh little/no lower wick reject of yest. low and entry taking out low of FH bar plus break of 25 psych level..

Poss...
Welcome Ian. Thankyou for those kind words.

I was watching the tv and Mrs V was already in the eur trade. I didn't see this until afterwards.

Its easy to say after the event but I have to think I'd be selling where you indicated for the exact same reasons you mention in your summary. In addition the daily has clearly been heading down, the 1hr had decent upper wicks and basically (same as Mrs V's eur trade) the prev positive close 1hr candle comprised 1 x 5 min candle that never followed through. So with no move up on news the 15 min neg close 5 min lh little/no lower wick at the prior 1hr candles low certainly suggested down.

If I had been in front of computer and missed that I'd have been and hiding every blunt spoon in the house!!
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