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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #521
  • Feb 28, 2011 10:04am Feb 28, 2011 10:04am
Very interesting month. Started with small live account of $1000 and 5% risk per trade on daily account balance(this is ok for me as risk tolerance).No 9pip rule. So, 20 trades taken, 9 wins, 11 losses, largest drawdown in month was 15% of starting balance and ended month on +10.9% of starting balance. So all in all not too shabby. On a different note I think the reason this sort of works is because its london open at start of 8am gmt candle, In a couple of weeks when British Summertime starts 8am gmt candle will be one hour after london has opened, I will monitor candle at london open and candle at 8 gmt and let you know results . Good luck to all starting with this live tommorow.
Geoff
  • #522
  • Feb 28, 2011 10:24am Feb 28, 2011 10:24am
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Very interesting month. Started with small live account of $1000 and 5% risk per trade on daily account balance(this is ok for me as risk tolerance).No 9pip rule. So, 20 trades taken, 9 wins, 11 losses, largest drawdown in month was 15% of starting balance and ended month on +10.9% of starting balance. So all in all not too shabby. On a different note I think the reason this sort of works is because its london open at start of 8am gmt candle, In a couple of weeks when British Summertime starts 8am gmt candle will be one hour after london has opened,...
I'm certain London open is the reason this works. The interesting bit is that in my backtesting to 2007, I never made any changes to accomodate for daylight time changes. Several others that backested also mentioned they made no changes around this. I forget exactly how far back, but we did discuss this for a page or so early in the thread.
  • #523
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:34pm Feb 28, 2011 7:34pm
Quoting GEOFFREY62
Very interesting month. Started with small live account of $1000 and 5% risk per trade on daily account balance(this is ok for me as risk tolerance).No 9pip rule. So, 20 trades taken, 9 wins, 11 losses, largest drawdown in month was 15% of starting balance and ended month on +10.9% of starting balance. So all in all not too shabby. On a different note I think the reason this sort of works is because its london open at start of 8am gmt candle, In a couple of weeks when British Summertime starts 8am gmt candle will be one hour after london has...
Hi everyone.

Have you checked to see how much you would be up had you taken the trade opposite direction? I wonder since it was 9 wins vs 11 losses. I know some of the same trades would probably still get stopped out, but just curious.
  • #524
  • Mar 1, 2011 2:57am Mar 1, 2011 2:57am
SL hit today and boy am I having problems with Oanda MT4 platform. Getting off quotes continually
  • #525
  • Mar 1, 2011 3:38am Mar 1, 2011 3:38am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hi everyone.

Have you checked to see how much you would be up had you taken the trade opposite direction? I wonder since it was 9 wins vs 11 losses. I know some of the same trades would probably still get stopped out, but just curious.
I understand where you are coming from. However, one cannot change the trading rules that were devised using around three years of data, because of 20 trades. The interesting point to note is that based on the original rules, the losses were negligible last month (-0.35%). Geoffrey62 made a profit of 10.9% using a 5% risk per trade.

My trade today hit the SL as well by sticking to the rules. The annoying thing is that I knew when watching the charts (I trade manually) that I needed to go "long". Such a trade would have resulted in a 34 pip profit.

Better luck next time I hope.
  • #526
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:01am Mar 1, 2011 4:01am
Quoting Rasi
I understand where you are coming from. However, one cannot change the trading rules that were devised using around three years of data, because of 20 trades. The interesting point to note is that based on the original rules, the losses were negligible last month (-0.35%). Geoffrey62 made a profit of 10.9% using a 5% risk per trade.

My trade today hit the SL as well by sticking to the rules. The annoying thing is that I knew when watching the charts (I trade manually)...

Wasnt todays trade a long? The 00:00 open price was lower than the 08:00 open price? I havent started trading this system yet maybe im missing somethign
  • #527
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:25am Mar 1, 2011 4:25am
Quoting Ngc773
Wasnt todays trade a long? The 00:00 open price was lower than the 08:00 open price? I havent started trading this system yet maybe im missing somethign

Yup, you're missing the 1st post
  • #528
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:27am Mar 1, 2011 4:27am
Today I went with the 01:00 opening so it was long for me, sweet 33 pips
  • #529
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:45am Mar 1, 2011 4:45am
Quoting Ngc773
Wasnt todays trade a long? The 00:00 open price was lower than the 08:00 open price? I havent started trading this system yet maybe im missing somethign
You should be trading back toward the 00:00 opening price. So, when 08:00 open is higher than 00:00, you go short.
  • #530
  • Mar 1, 2011 4:47am Mar 1, 2011 4:47am
Seems like myfxbook doesn't like OANDA MT4 accounts. I don't know if it has something to do with all the "interest" entries, or what the cause is... But, we clearly did not lose 40,000% in the first trade of the month like myfxbook is reporting.

2.5% loss today (SL hit). I'll see if there's anything I can do to fix that...
  • #531
  • Mar 1, 2011 5:19am Mar 1, 2011 5:19am
Quoting Arkpip
Today I went with the 01:00 opening so it was long for me, sweet 33 pips
Hey, that was cheating. Well done .
  • #532
  • Mar 1, 2011 9:23am Mar 1, 2011 9:23am
Quoting Rasi
I understand where you are coming from. However, one cannot change the trading rules that were devised using around three years of data, because of 20 trades. The interesting point to note is that based on the original rules, the losses were negligible last month (-0.35%). Geoffrey62 made a profit of 10.9% using a 5% risk per trade.

My trade today hit the SL as well by sticking to the rules. The annoying thing is that I knew when watching the charts (I trade manually) that I needed to go "long". Such a trade would have resulted in a 34...
I was not suggesting nor implying we change the rules. In fact, I've been a proponent of following the original rules unless there is overwhelming evidence to tweak them. I only asked because I was curious. I know the results are not going to be better (over last few years) because in all the backtesting by cgrey and others, it would of stood out like a sore thumb if it was better to take opposite direction. The edge is the reversal from the 0-8 GMT and I know that. The reason why I'm curious is because if the opposite trades finish the month with a small loss (or slight gain), then its a testament and confirmation of the money management.
  • #533
  • Mar 1, 2011 2:29pm Mar 1, 2011 2:29pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I was not suggesting nor implying we change the rules. In fact, I've been a proponent of following the original rules unless there is overwhelming evidence to tweak them. I only asked because I was curious. I know the results are not going to be better (over last few years) because in all the backtesting by cgrey and others, it would of stood out like a sore thumb if it was better to take opposite direction. The edge is the reversal from the 0-8 GMT and I know that. The reason why I'm curious is because if the opposite trades finish the month with...

I was thinking the exact same thing.

Also the reason why Geoffrey62 and cgreys results are opposite could not be because of using a higher % risk I don't think. It has to be on some of the days cgrey took a full 2.5% loss when it hit his stop, compared to a few of the guys that it came close but didn't stop out and retraced.

I'm not great at math so maybe it is because of the difference in % that they used.

I'm sorry I didn't have time to backtest and see what the results would be if you left the trade open for a full two hours instead of one.

This is the best thread I have read on ff cause its so clean. Not really any bs. Thanks again everybody for your thoughts.
  • #534
  • Mar 1, 2011 6:29pm Mar 1, 2011 6:29pm
Just an update on my results for february, on a couple of trades I was a tiny little bit late getting in on open of 8am candle due to broker giving me "Trade Context Busy" nonsense. so I took price that I got in at not price of open of candle, and used these prices in my trade log. Had I used actually price my results would have been slightly better, but we must live in real world not demo world so my results were as previous post.
Regards
Geoff
  • #535
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:37am Mar 2, 2011 5:37am
we just hit SL and then price moved up !!

started the month with 2 SL
  • #536
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:57am Mar 2, 2011 5:57am
RR, same result for me... And last week this happened to me at least one day...

It seems the market knows where we are, goes there to take us out, then moves away...

The good thing: this is demo...
  • #537
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:59am Mar 2, 2011 7:59am
Not sure what happened to CGrey's GU trade today; his fxbook log shows a 70.5 pip win for a buy trade which lasted nearly 2 hrs ....??

No SL or TP either.
  • #538
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:02am Mar 2, 2011 8:02am
Quoting erwal
Not sure what happened to CGrey's GU trade today; his fxbook log shows a 70.5 pip win for a buy trade which lasted nearly 2 hrs ....??

No SL or TP either.
OANDA's MT4 sucks, is pretty much the short answer. After it accepted the trade, it couldn't be modified or closed. I had to close it manually - when I woke up a few hours later. My EA tried to close the trade literally every tick for a solid hour at 09:00 and kept getting "off quotes". I'm SOOOO glad I didn't decide to go live with OANDA - I think they still have some bugs to work out with their MT4 platform.

In my live account, it was another SL.
  • #539
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:44am Mar 2, 2011 8:44am
I have watched the open a fair few times on the OandA 5 second chart and this is one thing I have found. If price doesn't take off Tony112 style then what it will often do is a quick 5 pip hop one way before continuing the 'right' way. You can sometimes see it on the M1 chart too. Entering at 8:00:30 or 8:01 would give us some more breathing. If price is taking off it shouldn't make a deal of difference on good days. It does improves things this year if we believe mt4 backtesting data and I'm planning to test this over a decent time period when I get chance.

I had a problem with OandA this morning which may or may not be related to the EA I am using - 3 positions were opened at 8:00 this morning. Only one appeared in MT4 but the all showed in fxtrade (I didn't know this at the time as I didn't have it open). The MT4 log showed 2 of them failed to open so they didn't end up with a TP / SL as with OandA you need to do this after you have opened the trade. The end result is that I was running 2 trades I didn't know about with no SL! This could have been a disaster.

I've had the problem with ghost trades appearing in MT4 stopping me opening new trades but this could be a lot more serious.

As it happened it worked out really well for me this morning as trade 1 was stopped out 8:41 probably the same as everyone. But trade 2 and 3 lived on! I only saw them when I looked at the charts around 11:45 and added a tight trailing stop and got out around 1.631.

Has anyone else using OandA found anything like this happening? cgrey in order to keep the thread clean would it be possible to message me with the logic for the open trade snippet from your EA. I'd like to rule out anything I am doing wrong at this end.
  • #540
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:46am Mar 2, 2011 8:46am
just the seen cgrey's above post! looks like they still have some bugs to work out. hmmm.
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