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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #501
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:50pm Feb 25, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting dirtytough
I actually thought it was a good idea cgrey cause I don't even know how to use an ea in the first place. So learning to program one and put it to use would benefit me.
Sorry, dt... I know there are a few like yourself that this would have probably worked out for. But, that said, there are a lot of threads right her on FF that can help you get started. And, I'm far from a programmer... We would have developed about the simplest of all possible EAs (from a programming perspective, this system really is a snap), but there would have been a LOT left untouched that someone would have to go seek out if they wanted to continue with more complex EAs someday. Even if I wanted to, I wouldn't have the programming knowledge required to advance that topic very far beyond having a working EA for this system.
  • #502
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:23pm Feb 25, 2011 1:23pm
Hello cgrey. Hello all.

This thread has stayed on topic for the most part. It's refreshing to have a thread where the conversation has been consistent. Big ups to cgrey for policing and for reminding everyone to keep focus on the target. Also big ups to the posters on here for adhering and respect.

This strategy is simple, so it's very easy to make it go off topic. Since none of us want that either, I can see this thread becoming more of a log. A place where we can come post our results and see how it comes to others doing pretty much the same thing. I kinda like that too. Makes it easy to read and catch up. It also makes it unique compared to the other threads on here. No matter where it goes from here, it can at least be a rally point for those who were here from the begininng, hehe.
  • #503
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:25pm Feb 25, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
No matter where it goes from here, it can at least be a rally point for those who were here from the begininng, hehe.
We should get t-shirts made, or a banner or something...
  • #504
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:22pm Feb 25, 2011 2:22pm
N
Quoting cgrey
Sorry, dt... I know there are a few like yourself that this would have probably worked out for. But, that said, there are a lot of threads right her on FF that can help you get started. And, I'm far from a programmer... We would have developed about the simplest of all possible EAs (from a programming perspective, this system really is a snap), but there would have been a LOT left untouched that someone would have to go seek out if they wanted to continue with more complex EAs someday. Even if I wanted to, I wouldn't have the programming knowledge...
It's no problem at all.

You touched on a point about not giving anything back a couple posts back. How would you change your strategy if you traded this manually?

Another note kinda off topic. I started trading live yesterday. I was up 80 pips and gave most of them back. (I know I'm a tard) Anyway your mm in this thread has helped me out a ton besides your system that you shared. Thanks again and I hope to see more posts from everybody in this thread.
  • #505
  • Edited 3:34pm Feb 25, 2011 2:31pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting dirtytough
You touched on a point about not giving anything back a couple posts back. How would you change your strategy if you traded this manually?
The biggest difference would probably be that I'd make a decision at 09:00 whether or not to close the trade based on how price has moved during the 08:00 hour. A while ago I had been trying to come up with some kind of idea to approach this logically so it could be worked in to a "rule", but I've yet to come up with anything that can substitue for instinct and simply "watching" market movement.

I'd probably also find opportunities now and then to close manually before the full 20-pip SL was hit in trades that aren't going our way.

Of course, both of these bring discretion to the system, and there's no guarantee that the end result would be any better...
  • #506
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:43pm Feb 25, 2011 3:43pm
Gotcha. I have also wondered about letting it run but you never know since its forex. I like the cut and dried make/break/or get out rules.

For the guys that can backtest with an ea and not do it manually, have you tested what happens if you stay in the trade 2 hours instead of one?

If nobody has time I understand. If I have time I will try to manually do it this weekend. I do think you will have a lot more sl hit and tp hit. Just depends on the ratio I guess.
  • #507
  • Feb 25, 2011 3:46pm Feb 25, 2011 3:46pm
Quoting dirtytough
Gotcha. I have also wondered about letting it run but you never know since its forex. I like the cut and dried make/break/or get out rules.

For the guys that can backtest with an ea and not do it manually, have you tested what happens if you stay in the trade 2 hours instead of one?

If nobody has time I understand. If I have time I will try to manually do it this weekend. I do think you will have a lot more sl hit and tp hit. Just depends on the ratio I guess.
Just by manually backtesting, I've seen the answer to that is "somewhere in between". There are many times the gain would have been greater. There are as many, or more, times when a winner at 09:00 ends up a loser at 10:00. Would be curious to see some data as opposed to just the visual, though...
  • #508
  • Feb 25, 2011 4:34pm Feb 25, 2011 4:34pm
One more thing about mm.

I am not going to open a separate account if I trade this system. I still haven't decided yay or nay on it.

Since I would be using the same account that I am making other trades on, would you guys suggest going for a pip target or a % target?

I would still up/down my lot size so I wasn't risking more then 1 or 2 percent per trade. (whatever I decide on)

If I went the pip route this is how I was thinking about it. Target of 80 pips. When I reach it I reset and go for another 80 pips. If I dd 80 pips I reset and go for a fresh 80.

Or I set a goal of say 8% if I risk 2%, and every 8 gmt trade I would adjust lot size for my risk of 2%, and keep track of my % profit loss on this trade. If I dd 8% I would reset and start fresh.

Example, if I am up 4.37% on my first trade then I would set my tp for 3.63% of my account balance the next 8 gmt trade. Even if I had a dd of 5% from other trades.

Are there any negatives of trading this on the same account as other trades besides the extra math? And are there any negatives of using either the 80 pips strategy, or the 8% strategy?

I apologize if any of these questions are redundant.

Branden
  • #509
  • Feb 25, 2011 4:58pm Feb 25, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting dirtytough
One more thing about mm.

I am not going to open a separate account if I trade this system. I still haven't decided yay or nay on it.

Since I would be using the same account that I am making other trades on, would you guys suggest going for a pip target or a % target?

I would still up/down my lot size so I wasn't risking more then 1 or 2 percent per trade. (whatever I decide on)

If I went the pip route this is how I was thinking about it. Target of 80 pips. When I reach it I reset and go for another 80 pips. If I dd 80 pips I reset...
Short answer - go for pips instead of % - the math will become WAY too confusing if you try to keep track of %. The trick, then, is that you figure out your lot size at the beginning of the month (or 80-pip cycle), and don't change it for that entire cycle. Keep track of you total pips (+/-) for only this system.

All of this said, I would advise strongly against mixing systems in a single account. With brokers out there that will let you open an account with as little as $50 (or even less) there's no reason to mix them and make things more confusing. Plus, if your other system(s) start to do particularly good (or bad), that will mess with your math, too. In the end, you won't be able to keep accurate records of how this specific system worked for you, and therefore you'll be less able to make an informed decision about whether or not to continue to trade it long-term.
  • #510
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:35pm Feb 25, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting cgrey
We should get t-shirts made, or a banner or something...
LOL. Oh man that was good. Almost pissed my pants.
  • #511
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:58pm Feb 25, 2011 5:58pm
Quoting dirtytough
N

It's no problem at all.

You touched on a point about not giving anything back a couple posts back. How would you change your strategy if you traded this manually?

Another note kinda off topic. I started trading live yesterday. I was up 80 pips and gave most of them back. (I know I'm a tard) Anyway your mm in this thread has helped me out a ton besides your system that you shared. Thanks again and I hope to see more posts from everybody in this thread.
No way to know for sure which way the ball is going to roll. So don't be hard on yourself if you were up and ended with a loss. That 80 pip gain can turn into +150 pips. Truth is you can't take a partial profit because in the long run it will cost you more. If I have one tip for you it is make your trade and walk away from your computer. Come back when it's time to come back. In the case of this strategy, one hour later. Just don't think. That's the beauty of this system - you don't have to think. Hence my earlier analogy that even a person with half a brain can do this. So, set the trade, walk away, then come back when it's time to close. Like my signature says: trade like a machine. I wouldn't always reccomend trading with such rigid parameters, but that's what this system is based on. The combination of rigid parameters with a an edge is what will make this profitable (if it does profit. Recent history suggets it has).

I haven't been trading this system. The hours where I live don't allow me to and I have Oanda so I can't plug in an EA. However, I have taken the core principles of this system and applied it on a "higher" level. By "higher" I mean larger timeframe. Without giving specifics, I'm looking for patterns on daily, weekly and monthly charts upon which to draw an edge. As a result I have widened the stops and take profits (as compared to this hourly system). Hope this helps
  • #512
  • Edited Feb 26, 2011 10:19am Feb 25, 2011 7:14pm | Edited Feb 26, 2011 10:19am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Truth is you can't take a partial profit because in the long run it will cost you more.
I see SOOOOO many threads here: "TP1, TP2, TP3". They're exactly opposite of good money management. When you're up and the trade is moving your way, the last thing you want to do is take $$$ off the table.... If you're going to have TP1, TP2, TP3 - just have one - TP3. Your win will be much bigger. If you are not confident your trade will make it to TP3 (or if TP3 doesn't give you an adequate risk:reward (like 1:2 or higher), then it's not a trade you want to be in. Sit it out and wait for the next one. But don't reduce your profits by scaling out of positions. Let your entire position run until it's time to exit. If you want to "lock in" profits, move your stop accordingly, but when you start taking $$ out of your trade, you're effectively reducing the value of every pip the trade moves further in your direction. You end up needing twice (or more) as many pips to have the same $ profit. Too many people scale out, when they should be scaling IN instead. If you want to be in with one full lot, start by going in with 1/2 (or 1/3). When the trade starts moving your way, add to your position. If it goes against you, you'll be out with a much smaller loss than if you went in with your entire position from the beginning. Another reason why 95% of all retail traders fail. You see these two common mistakes time and time again in systems here - often even from the "good" or "experienced" traders.

I've said it before, and it's worth repeating. It's amazing just how well some of the mediocre systems you see here would do if they had halfway decent money management. Some that have been abandoned as failures only need to apply solid money management concepts to turn them into profitable systems. If you learn anything from this thread, it should be how to apply proper money management in all your trading - not which direction to enter G/U at 08:00.
  • #513
  • Feb 28, 2011 4:39am Feb 28, 2011 4:39am
Today's 45 pip win ends the month of February down just a bit (-0.35%).

Post #1 has been updated.
  • #514
  • Feb 28, 2011 6:01am Feb 28, 2011 6:01am
Cgrey, because of the 9 pips rule I did not trade today. Are you planning to change your thinking on this new rule in light of today's results going forward? I know the same rule would have saved you 26 pips on February 9th.

Kind regards.
  • #515
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:25am Feb 28, 2011 7:25am
Like Rasi, I did not trade because of the 9 pips rule...

Also, if we took the 1.00 candle we would have a short trade...
  • #516
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:37am Feb 28, 2011 7:37am
Quoting Rasi
Cgrey, because of the 9 pips rule I did not trade today. Are you planning to change your thinking on this new rule in light of today's results going forward? I know the same rule would have saved you 26 pips on February 9th.

Kind regards.
No, with both my demo and live trading beginning in March (starting tomorrow), I will be employing the 9-pip rule and not trading if the distance between the two opens is less than 9-pips.
  • #517
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:48am Feb 28, 2011 7:48am
i am planning to go LIVE tomorrow with my oanda mt4
  • #518
  • Feb 28, 2011 7:50am Feb 28, 2011 7:50am
Quoting roundrock
i am planning to go LIVE tomorrow with my oanda mt4
Good luck RR... I'm live as of tomorrow as well - still keeping the demo for (public) record keeping and any tweaks that may still be undiscovered....
  • #519
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:09am Feb 28, 2011 8:09am
Quoting lsousa
Like Rasi, I did not trade because of the 9 pips rule...

Also, if we took the 1.00 candle we would have a short trade...
Hi lousa,

You are correct about the 1 GMT candle. It would have been the wrong call today . Despite not trading today and not making any money, I am going to stick to the rules. I am sure such discipline will pay-off in the long term.

Happy trading.
  • #520
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:12am Feb 28, 2011 8:12am
Quoting Rasi
Hi lousa,

You are correct about the 1 GMT candle. It would have been the wrong call today . Despite not trading today and not making any money, I am going to stick to the rules. I am sure such discipline will pay-off in the long term.

Happy trading.
Of course, if you had chosen to do both (the 9-pip rule and the 01:00 candle), you wouldn't have traded today either, since that difference was also smaller than 9-pips.

But, Rasi is correct - when you choose what rules you will play by, stick to them (disciplne). Don't change the rules in the middle of the game.
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