AUD/USD | Page 1415 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #28,281
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:09am Feb 25, 2011 9:09am
Still holding 2 lots long from 1.000 and 1 lot from 1.0080. Hope for a push through the upper wedge line. If it does not break through on the next push up, I will take some profit. Good trades to all.

Regards,
  • #28,282
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:25am Feb 25, 2011 9:25am
Quoting FX-Petra
Still holding 2 lots long from 1.000 and 1 lot from 1.0080. Hope for a push through the upper wedge line. If it does not break through on the next push up, I will take some profit. Good trades to all.

Regards,
Moving stop on the 1 lot up to 1.0130 to lock up some profit. Moving stop up to 1.0050 on the 2 lots---holding Tp on both till 1.0220.

Regards,
  • #28,283
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:28am Feb 25, 2011 10:28am
Quoting Amanda2
Maybe if those calling for shorts would just keep quiet and stop banging about their prediction which is based on pure Alice-in-Wonderland stuff, AUD would actually make a significant drop below parity. Right now, my grandma's sneeze is causing the AUD to drop more than when those contrarian posts appear.


LOL, prepare to be nobjockulated by the slowest laughing person on Earth...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,284
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:50am Feb 25, 2011 10:50am
Quoting mrbandwidth


LOL, prepare to be nobjockulated by the slowest laughing person on Earth...
Sorry, but what's the meaning of "nobjockulation"?
My dictionary doesn't contain the word...
  • #28,285
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:57am Feb 25, 2011 10:57am
trade is at break even with 15% of my position closed so i get paid something. 85% i let run and will close entire position at 3pm est.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd-trade.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #28,286
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:20pm Feb 25, 2011 12:20pm
Little short of making the daily average range. Hopefully we can get one more push up before close. Still holding longs for 1.0220.

Regards,
  • #28,287
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:18pm Feb 25, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting CanuckCT
Something I'm now patiently watching on AUDUSD H4

Attachment

Cheers
CanuckCT
You are watching the red one, I am watching the green one

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #28,288
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:51pm Feb 25, 2011 1:51pm
Quoting peyman
aud is so bulish....firm and hard while the others r lose and sideway...why?
Because Aussie girls are sexy???
I can post a chart if you want..
Biggest joker
  • #28,289
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:53pm Feb 25, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting baron193
Because Aussie girls are sexy???
I can post a chart if you want..
Less charts, more picks plz.

Oh, and peyman... I've been harping on about a bull wedge on the daily all week. Not much left to pop this sucker.
  • #28,290
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:03pm Feb 25, 2011 2:03pm
looks like there were not a lot of stops above 1.0160. Hard to see how this would not be pushed above 1.0200 to try and run stops there. Then up for the big prize.... likely above 1.0300. We'll see what next week holds. If 1.0200 gives way, very likely we will test 1.0300, simply based on momentum. If 1.0300 pops, I hope Ely abandons his longs.

Regards,
  • #28,291
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:05pm Feb 25, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting FX-Petra
looks like there were not a lot of stops above 1.0160. Hard to see how this would not be pushed above 1.0200 to try and run stops there. Then up for the big prize.... likely above 1.0300. We'll see what next week holds. If 1.0200 gives way, very likely we will test 1.0300, simply based on momentum. If 1.0300 pops, I hope Ely abandons his longs.

Regards,
From this wedge, I have an ultimate target of 1.08-1.09'ish. Of course we will need to see the breakout, pullback, and continuation.
  • #28,292
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:13pm Feb 25, 2011 6:13pm
Quoting JanPoko
But someone has already said it in better wording than me some posts above, bright future of Aussies and US citizens is uncomparable...

You sure?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_...ations?slide=1

Pay close attention to #18.

As for the Aussie's current high level of value, it is almost solely related to a positive carry trade for longs.

It is being propped up at the moment by big money making that interest.

I don't want to say NEVER, but I don't see it breaking much more above parity. It just isn't feasible for their economy to sustain growth being that far out of whack from the Aussie's mean average against the USD. And we haven't seen the hurting from the floods/hurricane start to effectively show up in the fundamental data yet.

With that being said, growing steadily like it did put a lot of money in speculator's pockets.

The carry trade, and the wafting in range will become tiresome, and they will start unplugging those longs. It will fall fast, and hard, and the same players will jump on the long train again. So a weekly range will turn into a monthly range...

Watch those longs, but the shorts are way worse with that bigass hurtin' from the swap rate.

To high for me to be comfortable in a buy, and too expensive to make a nice position trade for a short.

So hands off for me for a while
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #28,293
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:52pm Feb 25, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
You sure?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_...ations?slide=1

Pay close attention to #18.

As for the Aussie's current high level of value, it is almost solely related to a positive carry trade for longs.

It is being propped up at the moment by big money making that interest.

I don't want to say NEVER, but I don't see it breaking much more above parity....

To balance the books we shall also look at the mayor creditors for US Treasury Security's.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

Of course anything can happen but in my view too many people have lost confidence in the US Dollar meaning it will eventually loose its status as reserve currency. The bright side is that the export industry will grow for the US, heaps of people buy stuff in the US because of the weak dollar.
The Japanese, Germany, France,Switzerland,Chinese the list goes on are so pissed off with Beni Heli its not funny anymore think about.

Cheers
  • #28,294
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm
maybe next week ausie will be to 1.02 again .lol.
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #28,295
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting Pipstrumpf
To balance the books we shall also look at the mayor creditors for US Treasury Security's.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

Of course anything can happen but in my view too many people have lost confidence in the US Dollar meaning it will eventually loose its status as reserve currency. The bright side is that the export industry will grow for...
Not a valid point..... the US is an import nation, export values pale in comparison to imports. Numbers don't lie, analysts do.

A weaker dollar serves 7 purposes:

1) Political Tool
2) (perhaps not intentional) To diminish the quality of life for ex-pats
3) Make foreign debts more serviceable
4) Give as much traders margin calls as possible
5) Give other nations bragging rights
6) Afford supra-nationals mega-supa-dupa profits

oh, and ---> 7) To set my wallet on fire, I feel it shrinking as the days pass.

Apache Ben is an idiot, that's a given. As much as I dislike Trichet - If only he could head the Federal Reserve....

Geithner doesn't follow far behind, with him at the post I could see the DYX breaching 50 with ease. 30 seems like good support.


One doesn't even need a stop loss trading the AUD/USD from the long side, thats when we know markets are out of sync.
  • #28,296
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:17pm Feb 25, 2011 9:17pm
Quoting Warwick
Not a valid point..... the US is an import nation, export values pale in comparison to imports....
I guess that is exactly one (1) of the many problems the US has.

Cheers
  • #28,297
  • Feb 26, 2011 1:10am Feb 26, 2011 1:10am
Quoting Pipstrumpf
I guess that is exactly one (1) of the many problems the US has.

Cheers

Ironically, we could shut the doors and do it all ourselves.

And should.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #28,298
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:53am Feb 26, 2011 4:53am
Hope this helps a bit. Simple and not complicated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.jpg Size: 255 KB
  • #28,299
  • Feb 26, 2011 3:14pm Feb 26, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
You sure?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_...ations?slide=1

Pay close attention to #18.

...

Watch those longs, but the shorts are way worse with that bigass hurtin' from the swap rate.

To high for me to be comfortable in a buy, and too expensive to make a nice position trade for a short.

So hands off for me for a while
Thanks for the link. Very informative reading (and eye opener for me).

As for your further remarks, I can only agree with it.
  • #28,300
  • Edited 1:37am Feb 27, 2011 1:14am | Edited 1:37am
Fundamental Data Points Down as Timing Comes Into Play

We would not pay too much attention to the stronger Aussie data and warn that an overall softening in economic data out of Australia over the past few months, more balanced RBA monetary policy, devastation from the Aussie floods, and the threat of a slowdown in China on the back of tighter PBOC policy, will all prove to be too tough to ignore over the coming weeks, with the Australian dollar seen more at risk.

It seems as most of the larger institutional bets over the past several years have been built on long Aussie positions and once these players decide to book profits, the Australian dollar could fall hard and fast.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-232741 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS
Australian Dollar Bullish Extreme on CFTC Net Traders Positions

The Australian Dollar continues to hold firm at 28 year highs on stock market strength and risk appetite but the latest CFTC Net Traders positions warn of a break to the downside as speculators hold an extreme net long position.
The large speculators hold over 7 times as many longs as shorts and the small speculators, hold nearly 3 times as many longs as shorts which is opposed by commercial hedgers, who hold nearly 9 times as many shorts as longs and they have continued to sell into the rally.

We now have a bullish extreme in terms of sentiment and this is reflected in the positions and we expect a big downside break.
30 traders viewing now