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Phantom 6 System

  • #1,001
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:55pm Feb 23, 2011 7:55pm
for the accounts with only 1000s or less, i'd make a bet, hoho, no hard feeling, just a bet that you will have a margin call within 2 months at most.

just for fun, no hard feeling

Quoting xxl205
I will start diversifying with additional accounts when balance reaches around 3000 Euros, due to Alpari UK limits (2.0 lots total and 100 trades) on the pennys.
  • #1,002
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:09am Feb 24, 2011 2:09am
Quoting charvo
for the accounts with only 1000s or less, i'd make a bet, hoho, no hard feeling, just a bet that you will have a margin call within 2 months at most.

just for fun, no hard feeling
No offense taken, Charvo. I have the same bet running against my fellows

So, let's make this official a bit, wanna take you on ... you bet on a margin call on one of my seen accounts until 30th of April ? I'm in, just for fun ;-)
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #1,003
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:07am Feb 24, 2011 3:07am
Quoting xxl205
So, let's make this official a bit, wanna take you on ... you bet on a margin call on one of my seen accounts until 30th of April ? I'm in, just for fun ;-)
Now this thread is back life. Good to see your confidence.
C'mon charvo, accept the challenge.
I remember someone was mentioning a few days ago about this EA as the holy grail
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,004
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:22am Feb 24, 2011 3:22am
Quoting xxl205
No offense taken, Charvo. I have the same bet running against my fellows

So, let's make this official a bit, wanna take you on ... you bet on a margin call on one of my seen accounts until 30th of April ? I'm in, just for fun ;-)
In my testing of 500:1 accounts, margin calls only lead to a 10-20% drop (can't remember the exact figures I've deleted my last bad test). Psychologically that might be hard to trade, but if there's a margin call every few months and the accounts are accruing at 30-50% per month, it's still a great system. And with 50:1 leverage I haven't seen a margin call in my 3 months of testing multiple accounts. And 50:1 can still give you 15-20% profit per month.
  • #1,005
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:09am Feb 24, 2011 6:09am
Ok, I herewith bet that each of the accounts will make at least around 15 basket closures equaling 300-400 Euro in total until the 30th of April 2011

That is a nice challenge. My friends will get me toasted ^^ glad they do not speak english that good to understand this thread ;-)
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #1,006
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:06am Feb 24, 2011 8:06am
O ye, glad to take it, dude. i'll watch it close, and don't remove your data from myfxbook,please.

of coz, if you get no margin call, your account will be quite doubled or tripled.

Quoting xxl205
So, let's make this official a bit, wanna take you on ... you bet on a margin call on one of my seen accounts until 30th of April ? I'm in, just for fun ;-)
  • #1,007
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:09am Feb 24, 2011 8:09am
Yes, that, still think it is now, but it does need some smart and systematic management.

I don't think that we've figured out enough of it.

actually, I will double theMaxx's trading size, if go LIVE. that'll be easier for my heart.

Quoting IamTHAT
C'mon charvo, accept the challenge.
I remember someone was mentioning a few days ago about this EA as the holy grail
  • #1,008
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:19am Feb 24, 2011 8:19am
Quoting charvo
Yes, that, still think it is now, but it does need some smart and systematic management.

I don't think that we've figured out enough of it.
So if that's all thats remaining, let's discuss smart systematic management. The Cut Loser (CL) mod with CutLoserMultiplier (CLM) has already been discussed. You could close the basket based on number of trades, length of time the basket has been open, or a function of free margin. What do you think will work the best? What are people testing?
  • #1,009
  • Feb 24, 2011 10:15am Feb 24, 2011 10:15am
the cut loser in my mind is not a very smart idea, although it DOES meet "cut the loser, run the winner" logic (this makes it at least not a bad idea).

why not very smart? because the DD is usually caused by "many positions have a similar floating loss", NOT by "one position has many floating negative pips". do you agree? if so, then it seems not quite reasonable just blindly cut one biggest loser.

i still think this cut-loser is effective, and long-term good. however, i have not tried it.

recently, jcs and the others discuss cutting some positions with negligible floating p/l. that's a better idea. MB also presented concise logic on how to code it. that's great. however, this is dealing with the problem----too many redundant positions. we might also think about how to deal with the ORIGIN of this problem. In other words, many positions were entered in a wrong time (or frequency).

please let me elaborate:

we all agree that Asia is less active than London or NY. but does Asia move or trend? yes, it also does, it just does not move as much as london or NY. so why "use hours" to only trade London, but NOT trading Asia? I'll definitely trading Asia! if you "use hours" not trading Asia, it might bring in more risk in fact. In 2008 meltdown, Asian session also runs like falling off a cliff. therefore, a logical method to deal with lazy Asia, to me, is enter one pos every 2 hours, so this way does meet the market's own rythm: less in Asia, more in London & NY. I feel that it can significantly reduce DD. I've been doing this manually (though it's easy to code) on my tiny LIVE account. If i didn't do it, i will have a margin call every 2 or 3 days.

all these above are only tiny issues in fact, not really affecting the system's power. the only important thing so far we know for sure is the sufficiently large margin.

it is surprising that all thru 70 pages, people rarely discussed the difference of various versions of EA, and advantages and disadvantages of their fundamental logic. those are the essential issues. this EA is not a tech analysis system. it wins because of its logic. we need thoughts on that. why reset? why 6 pairs? why 'X', what if yes, and what if no. the answers might be in fact simple, just people wouldn't think them over.

Quoting TheMaxx
So if that's all thats remaining, let's discuss smart systematic management. The Cut Loser (CL) mod with CutLoserMultiplier (CLM) has already been discussed. You could close the basket based on number of trades, length of time the basket has been open, or a function of free margin. What do you think will work the best? What are people testing?
  • #1,010
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:07pm Feb 24, 2011 1:07pm
Just a quick question
I have been running both the Six_2a and the 01a
All day and neither seem to be making any trades?
Is there something i'm missing?
Comparing my account to xxl205 's there should have been trades by now?
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  • #1,011
  • Edited 4:37pm Feb 24, 2011 4:26pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting neosynx
Just a quick question
I have been running both the Six_2a and the 01a
All day and neither seem to be making any trades?
Is there something i'm missing?
Comparing my account to xxl205 's there should have been trades by now?
Yes Neosynx, there should have been some trades, at least from the 01a version which still is supposed to open one each hour.

But on my 5 accounts there is also some kind of mystery. Despite I have switched them on all at same time and they close the baskets quite at the same time, they often do not trade exactly the same trades afterwards.

Does someone know, where Phantom "stores" its phantom trades ? I have tried cleaning variables with F3 after a full closure, but that and fresh restarts of MT4 did not solve my problem yet. They still run well though ;-)

Try closing MT4 and restarting it if you see that 01a isn't opening trades at the new hour. My Alpari demo accounts seem to be offline quite frequently around 5 minutes at the :00, especially at evening / night. The live accounts though are stable.
"We are all just prisoners ... of our own device ..." (Hotel California)
  • #1,012
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:54pm Feb 24, 2011 6:54pm
Quoting neosynx
Just a quick question
I have been running both the Six_2a and the 01a
All day and neither seem to be making any trades?
Is there something i'm missing?
Comparing my account to xxl205 's there should have been trades by now?
Two things to check.

1. your broker has all 14 pairs used in the EA(some brokers dont have nzd/jpy) that will cause the EA to not function.

2. Go to market watch, right clk on "symbol" then click "show all".

These are the 2 common problems seen in past if EA doesnt take trades.
  • #1,013
  • Feb 25, 2011 1:46am Feb 25, 2011 1:46am
Quoting charvo
it is surprising that all thru 70 pages, people rarely discussed the difference of various versions of EA, and advantages and disadvantages of their fundamental logic. those are the essential issues. this EA is not a tech analysis system. it wins because of its logic. we need thoughts on that. why reset? why 6 pairs? why 'X', what if yes, and what if no. the answers might be in fact simple, just people wouldn't think them over.
Some very valid points mentioned there.
Why 6pairs? By adding any more pairs is it possible to have variety to the possible winners? This EA feeds on volatility. Are existing pairs enough to reflect all the volatility in the market?
If we observe major contributors in this aspect, I think so. We have USD, GBP, JPY and CHF (which is only due to present market sentiments). JPY was the major mover sometime back but not so much now. What about AUD NZD or CAD? May not add much value?
What about Max.Margin? How to optimize the lotsize or does it really make or break this EA? I like xxl's theory of needing certain no. open positions needed to get the final push.
Profit Pc chosen is also of critical value. I have seen 3 % value easily reached during volatile times. When this EA can produce 5% drawdown, it can also produce similar profit.
Having a large account will nullify all this and is it the only essential requirement?
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #1,014
  • Feb 25, 2011 2:24am Feb 25, 2011 2:24am
Quoting thorn
Two things to check.

1. your broker has all 14 pairs used in the EA(some brokers dont have nzd/jpy) that will cause the EA to not function.

2. Go to market watch, right clk on "symbol" then click "show all".

These are the 2 common problems seen in past if EA doesnt take trades.
Thanks guys it was the "show all symbol" thing

Yes another point >> We do need to understand the logic behind this strategy
Anyone who can shed some light on the reason this strategy works.
I believe Basket 14 EA System was the original thread behind it?
It would be great. It will help us understand where the flaws are.
And if profit can be made in the long run with margin calls?

No system is perfect we just need an edge in our favor , to make money.

I have made a hybrid grid EA it works very well. But yes will blow your account in the end. The question is if you can split 1000 small account every time u double them . You have an awesome geometric progression. So blowing up accounts long the line wont hurt your profit making.
  • #1,015
  • Edited 12:10pm Feb 25, 2011 10:30am | Edited 12:10pm
Hi All, and in particular Roundrock,

I am reporting on the DD EA Basket Closures for the week ending 25 Feb 2011:-



OOTB settings on EA Phantom6_01DD
100:1 Leveraged Account.
Running only during London and NY sessions.


1st Basket:
First trade entered at 9.15 GMT on 17 Feb.
Basket closed at 8.35 GMT on 22 Feb.
Trades: 37
Largest Floating DD -2.16%

2nd Basket:
First trade entered at 13.53 GMT on 22 Feb.
Basket closed at 14.07 GMT on 22 Feb.
Trades: 8
Largest Floating DD -0.13%

3rd Basket:
First trade entered at 16.32 GMT on 22 Feb.
Basket closed at 11.42 GMT on 24 Feb Feb.
Trades: 84
Largest Floating DD -13.83%
Lowest Margin = 99.86
38% of the expected PP was lost in the 90 seconds or so it took to close the basket



4th Basket:
First trade entered at 14.55 GMT on 24 Feb.
Basket still open as at 16.00 GMT on 25 Feb.
Trades: 64
Largest Floating DD -15.98%
Basket is left alone over the week-end closedown.


Roundrock, while the DD EA has outperformed my basic running of Phantom6_01R, in my view it is adding too many trades for its own good and slow to get to closure once a basket is opened.

Would it be possible to test on the basis that it adds trades [Edit: at] every predetermined minute past each hour AND that it adds trades of all the winning phantoms – not just the highest winning phantom. This I think will enhance the performance of the DD EA.

Finally, I noticed that the comment on some of the DD trades is: “Moving from buffer to a long ph” while on others is the usual “Adding a Long (or short) phantom winner” Is there any significance of this?



The EA Phantom6-01xR had a basket open at 13.15 GMT on 18th Feb and has not closed since. This has been trading without CL or Recovery trades. It has had a horrendous week to contend with. Margin level is down to 196% and no margin call. I am trying my best to break this EA – its resilience is outstanding. It is running on a 500:1 leveraged account with MMTU of 2.1% and PP of 0.8%
  • #1,016
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:46am Feb 25, 2011 10:46am
Quoting Nicastro
Hi All, and in particular Roundrock,

I am reporting on the DD EA Basket Closures for the week ending 25 Feb 2011:-



OOTB settings on EA Phantom6_01DD
100:1 Leveraged Account.
Running only during London and NY sessions.


[color=black][size=3][font=Times New Roman]1st...

hi Nicastro, thanks for testing this. excellent report

whats OOTB ? u didnt mention the PP, DrawDownToEnter values. considering the PP is way over other EAs, this seems doing well

you mentioned its adding too many trades and at same time you wanted to add all winners each hour. i am confused.
  • #1,017
  • Feb 25, 2011 11:14am Feb 25, 2011 11:14am
Quoting roundrock
whats OOTB ?
Out of the box
  • #1,018
  • Feb 25, 2011 11:57am Feb 25, 2011 11:57am
Quoting roundrock
hi Nicastro, thanks for testing this. excellent report

whats OOTB ? u didnt mention the PP, DrawDownToEnter values. considering the PP is way over other EAs, this seems doing well

you mentioned its adding too many trades and at same time you wanted to add all winners each hour. i am confused.

Hi Roundrock,

OOTB means "out of the box" . So the settings were the ones that came with the EA posted by you.

Currently, the EA is adding trades every 15 minutes. At this interval it is adding the highest winning phantom. By adding all winning phantoms every hour, we should get to a pop faster and with anything upto 40% less trades.
Regards
Nicastro
  • #1,019
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:18pm Feb 25, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting charvo
the cut loser in my mind is not a very smart idea, although it DOES meet "cut the loser, run the winner" logic (this makes it at least not a bad idea).

why not very smart? because the DD is usually caused by "many positions have a similar floating loss", NOT by "one position has many floating negative pips". do you agree? if so, then it seems not quite reasonable just blindly cut one biggest loser.

i still think this cut-loser is effective, and long-term good. however, i have not tried it.

recently, jcs and the others discuss cutting...
I have been testing many of the phantoms posted as well as my own mods and creations since sept of last year, so about 6 months now. Im not a coder but I have learned enough to change things and copy/paste code from one EA to another. Since I have a little experience I will share some of my thoughts on what Charvo posted.

why not very smart? because the DD is usually caused by "many positions have a similar floating loss", NOT by "one position has many floating negative pips". do you agree? if so, then it seems not quite reasonable just blindly cut one biggest loser.

i still think this cut-loser is effective, and long-term good. however, i have not tried it.

OK, I somewhat agree with this. What I have found is CL option works well while the basket remains small (less than 20 trades) and when most of your traded pairs are trending. The bigger and longer the basket the less this works, as Charvo says cutting one trade while there are many with floating loss does not much good. Also in very choppy market it doesnt work well. The whole phantom concept doesnt work well in choppy market IMO.

recently, jcs and the others discuss cutting some positions with negligible floating p/l. that's a better idea. MB also presented concise logic on how to code it. that's great.

A good idea and one I use in my manual phantom system. But the way I do it is way beyond my coding abilities. But I can tell you in limited testing this works very well.

however, this is dealing with the problem----too many redundant positions. we might also think about how to deal with the ORIGIN of this problem. In other words, many positions were entered in a wrong time (or frequency).

This has always been my biggest problem/complaint with the phantom logic. It takes too may trades that after looking at the chart I think man there is no way I would take that trade on that pair. This happens alot after phantom reset or restart. Only solution I can think of is to have a wait period between phantom start and actual trade maybe 3-4 hours?
To me the problem is most of your pairs are usually in some kind of trend up or down. may be longer term trends or maybe only 2-3 day trends, and I just see too many counter trend trades taken. Now thats not a problem when you can get a quick basket close but if the basket gets extended these seem to be the anchors that slow it down. And the longer the basket runs the more chance you have getting more anchors.

Asian session also runs like falling off a cliff. therefore, a logical method to deal with lazy Asia, to me, is enter one pos every 2 hours, so this way does meet the market's own rythm: less in Asia, more in London & NY. I feel that it can significantly reduce DD.

Another decent idea, I like it. I checked a while back and found that 80% of my basket closures were during london/ny trading hours. Very few in asia and only when there was big move in yen or aud.

it is surprising that all thru 70 pages, people rarely discussed the difference of various versions of EA, and advantages and disadvantages of their fundamental logic.

Well, kinda what Im doing now . Didnt always discuss, but tested most of them.

we need thoughts on that. why reset? why 6 pairs? why 'X', what if yes, and what if no. the answers might be in fact simple, just people wouldn't think them over.

Reset

advantage- Allows you to trade the best pair within the last few hours, which may be moving alot,getting you to that basket pop.

disadvantage- 1.best phantom may be pair that is in small retrace, get a few trades, then pair resumes original trend trapping you with garbage. If this happens few times in basket it will be big drawdown. 2. Pair is a steady mover that could make you pips but not always the best phantom so EA misses some potential good trades.

No-reset

advantage- Longer term, will keep you with the strongest phantom pairs, less counter trend trades.

disadvantage- The best phantom from start might not now be the best, newer stronger pairs will be delayed in getting trades until they take over the top spot.

Im still up in the air a little on this one, but I seem to favor a reset every 12 hours. The newer mod from roundrock(I think it was him) that resets before each session has worked ok so far too but only been testing short time.

"X" factor- always use it, keeps out redundant trades or trades on a phantom that may be weakening. Dont see any disadvantage in using it.

6-Pairs- Ive tested every number from 3 to 14 pairs (as long as they could be hedged) I like 4 pair, 6 pair and 8 pair best, with 4 pair probably my favorite. My manual system I use 22 pairs, but I couldnt code an EA to handle that kind of logic.

OK, thats some of my thoughts. Would love to hear comments from some of you other guys who have been testing for awhile.

I have to admit these phantoms have kind of got me addicted to them, only problem is I dont know if I will ever get real comfortable trading real money with any of the EA's as they stand now. So thats why I developed my own manual system with the phantom concept as its base but using my own ideas and logic based on the things I have seen, to manage the baskets.

Good luck to everyone..
  • #1,020
  • Feb 25, 2011 11:59pm Feb 25, 2011 11:59pm
Quoting thorn
I developed my own manual system with the phantom concept as its base but using my own ideas and logic based on the things I have seen, to manage the baskets.

Good luck to everyone..
A good post outlining the major issues which need to be addressed.
Can you please elaborate on your manual system? Do you enter based on any particular indicator or logic? How do you close your orders? All at once?
Very Interesting concept. Do you use any stoploss or just hedge with any other pair?
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
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