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  • #421
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:40am Feb 25, 2011 5:40am
I am focusing energy on finding longer term trades and this nzdusd short may be one of them if it behaves
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #422
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:45am Feb 25, 2011 5:45am
Quoting deepleo
Olu,

Agree NZDUSD is long term short but it seems to lost the steam for this week as it got support at weekly S2[0.7458], S3[0.7412] and monthly S2[0.7418]. If it closes below 0.7400 then it may go till 0.7300. But for now it may go up till 0.7550 area

I did miss this one.. this week.....[02.23.11]
As expected it did held at the weekly/monthly support area and it may close above 0.7500 this week. Hope to get short entry next week.
  • #423
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:51am Feb 25, 2011 5:51am
And it seems all the pairs have reached either their support or resistance levels for the week. So will wait for next week for the new support/resistance levels to be drawn.

And I wish you all good weekend.
  • #424
  • Edited 6:05am Feb 25, 2011 5:51am | Edited 6:05am
hi.
there could be a short between the 2 horizontal lines on my chart,
but im gonna wait now as were in a bit of no mans land with the 100 sma and 200 ema not far below. would like a decent close below these and short on retest with stop above the 100sma.
also could be support around 0.8530, horizontal line from 9/2/11 daily candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp daily.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #425
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:58am Feb 25, 2011 5:58am
nzd/usd is supported by 200ema at moment, and resistance at around 0.7500- 0.75200
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd usd daily.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #426
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:59am Feb 25, 2011 6:59am
Quoting jimbo86
hi.
there could be a short between the 2 horizontal lines on my chart,
but im gonna wait now as were in a bit of no mans land with the 100 sma and 200 ema not far below. would like a decent close below these and short on retest with stop above the 100sma.
also could be support around 0.8530, horizontal line from 9/2/11 daily candle
Jimbo,

As you said it may retrace a little but I'm Long biased on EG.
  • #427
  • Feb 25, 2011 10:27am Feb 25, 2011 10:27am
This pair is showing strength where I expected weakness. I am allowing for more retracement to around 7650 for a longer term short.

Thanks Jimbo for contributing to the thread.

Just leaving work. More analysis and postings to continue when I get home
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #428
  • Edited 1:34pm Feb 25, 2011 1:18pm | Edited 1:34pm
kept out of GBPCAD +175 by the news like you Olu
only consolation is getting the analysis right

wonder if its worth risking some pips next time,
with this particular news release there didnt appear to be much downward slippage if any,
catch is, you never can know how much there will be, to ponder

Quoting PeterE
I agree.

I have no set-up yet, but am watching for a short down to 1.5800ish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-26_0733.png Size: 24 KB
  • #429
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:17pm Feb 25, 2011 5:17pm
Quoting PeterE
kept out of GBPCAD +175 by the news like you Olu
only consolation is getting the analysis right

wonder if its worth risking some pips next time,
with this particular news release there didnt appear to be much downward slippage if any,
catch is, you never can know how much there will be, to ponder
I think we need to still put on the trade - maybe with half the size. Lost twice today (not lost - just not made) because of the belief of not trading on big news day. I still cannot handle non-farm payroll though

Yes it does help that the analysis is right. It gives one emotional equity. We are stronger a bit more each time we are right and our belief in our system grows.

So we live to fight another day.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #430
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:25pm Feb 25, 2011 5:25pm
we are nearing a breakout upwards on this pair as I have shown on the uploaded chart. I for one, was expecting a breakout to the downside but hey expectations are just that. We trade reality.

Price just about breaking out of a symmetrical triangle to the upside
Stoch - depicting momentum has crossed upwards
Price above the 100sma on the daily chart
If we breakout then the target is 300pips or so from exit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-daily-26022011-0105uk.jpg Size: 100 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #431
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:53pm Feb 25, 2011 5:53pm
Short the beast from 135.25 from last week ...1st time back to cloud.

Stop was 136.50 now b/e and we let it run.

I'll be watching 126.50 and then 122.00 then new lows maybe.

Just following the trend.


golfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy weekly.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #432
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:19pm Feb 25, 2011 6:19pm
Quoting PeterE
kept out of GBPCAD +175 by the news like you Olu
only consolation is getting the analysis right

wonder if its worth risking some pips next time,
with this particular news release there didnt appear to be much downward slippage if any,
catch is, you never can know how much there will be, to ponder
BTW: I dont believe this trade has finished to the downside. Weekly chart is bearish i.e a reversal to true trend. 5300 might be on the cards.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #433
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:47pm Feb 25, 2011 6:47pm
Cant help keeping an eye on the dollar index.

It seemed we had a bit of a recovery today as 7700 held. There is bullish divergence on the daily chart (uploaded). Next wee will prove interesting. But this pair might recover some more next week. But if 7700 breaks then lookout 7560 area. Not to be alarmist if that breaks then we are in a new currency dimension where gold will go to the moon and there is financial collapse in the USA.

We cant allow ourselves to get carried away - we are technical traders and right now it might just head up towards 7885
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-daily-26022011-0234uk.jpg Size: 54 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #434
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:06pm Feb 25, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting golferfx
Short the beast from 135.25 from last week ...1st time back to cloud.

Stop was 136.50 now b/e and we let it run.

I'll be watching 126.50 and then 122.00 then new lows maybe.

Just following the trend.


golfer
Thanks for the analysis. That's me thinking I was done on this pair when I nailed 80pips or so from the breakout from a wedge. Perspectives eh?

The chart is very bearish - my analysis (non-ichimoku) is screaming sell or rather 'why did you exit your shorts?'

RSI below the 50 line and not oversold
MACD has turned down
Price is moving down impulsively

Would love a retracement to enter short

Thanks for highlighting this trade Golfer

Have a nice weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-daily-26022011-0301uk.jpg Size: 79 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #435
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:23pm Feb 25, 2011 7:23pm
Profit was made this week. Thank God

Also did a monthly report on metatrader for feb and it reported profit too.

The good thing is I traded fewer trades than january and almost made similar pip profits. The icing on the cake was that the trade size increased according to the trading plan I am following.

For march the plan is to be more selective in my trades, try a bit of 'set and forget' and hold my trades for longer - past that initial gratification stage. In the scheme of things what is 50pips when the trade is worth 850pips. And you dont have to hold till you are 80!

Thanks to GolferFx, Heliodz, PeterE, DeepLeo and Jumbo for contributing to this thread. When I started it I never knew it would be so beneficial to me and you guys. I am really grateful for your input. 'Iron Sharpeneth Iron...'

Thanks to all the readers who nip in and out too.

Have a nice weekend. See you Sunday night UK time.

BTW: Keep posting...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #436
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:51pm Feb 25, 2011 7:51pm
i'm finding the thread helpful, cross-referencing others' analysis with my own, makes me think some more, and can even generate opportunities

thanks all, shall return next week for another round

Quoting Olu
Thanks to GolferFx, Heliodz, PeterE, DeepLeo and Jumbo for contributing to this thread. When I started it I never knew it would be so beneficial to me and you guys. I am really grateful for your input. 'Iron Sharpeneth Iron...'
  • #437
  • Feb 26, 2011 2:15pm Feb 26, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting deepleo
As you said it may retrace a little but I'm Long biased on EG.
eur/gbp has closed below the 100 sma, but still above the 200ema. i am short biased over longer term, but dont feel comfortable entering short or long here, would rather short with daily close below 200 ema and enter on a retest with a stop above 100 sma

thanks for starting this thread Olu, it is very usefull
  • #438
  • Feb 26, 2011 3:12pm Feb 26, 2011 3:12pm
Since we are all discussing about eurgbp I thought I'll add my take to the soup pot. Perhaps if we 'stir' vigorously we'll come up with something tradable

You need to know, first and foremost, that I am bearish this pair and it is unlikely that I will take longs on this pair. I believe that we are going to 8150 area

I remember that I warned that an inverse hammer candle pattern was forming on the daily chart. Price actually closed at the low of the candle which does not bode well for the start of the next full session.

I have uploaded a 4hr and a daily chart and I see both timeframes in a bearish way.

Stoch on both timeframes bearish - more so on the 4hrly
bearish candle paterns on both timetfames
price below the 100sma on the daily

Depending on the open sunday night I would like to sell the 50% height of the daily candle around 8560 trying to hold for days. If I see weakness though I will not hesitate to jump in right away

That's my take...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-4h-26022011-2256uk.jpg Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp-daily-26022011-2253uk.jpg Size: 73 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #439
  • Feb 27, 2011 12:52am Feb 27, 2011 12:52am
EURAUD is looking good to buy around present prices, for +80ish pips,
but will wait and see how the start of week goes, would like to see AUDUSD find resistance and reverse
  • #440
  • Feb 27, 2011 4:00pm Feb 27, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting PeterE
EURAUD is looking good to buy around present prices, for +80ish pips,
but will wait and see how the start of week goes, would like to see AUDUSD find resistance and reverse
PeterE, Aud fell right out of the gate - giving possible credance to your buy theory. I have a sell on this pair which will still be a sell till price croses the 100sma at around 1.3600 area. So your buy here might work and my sell higher might work as well...


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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