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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #601
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:18am Feb 25, 2011 6:18am
Quoting tgwhbb
certainly looks that way. entry would be somewhere in the 3755-3775 area (yesterday's POC/VAL, and US&London IBL).

EDIT: That entry point assumes yesterday's VAH (around 3800) is breached, which may be difficult since it also represents this weeks developing VAH.

However, I'm not sure what to make of fact EU didn't break the old high today with what seems like high volume on my daily chart.
long entered at 3775. But i have a strange feeling about this one so SL set to BE already. Volume at yesterday's POC not shwoing much buying, and ND earlier on the M15 at today's VAL.
Change is the only constant
  • #602
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:32am Feb 25, 2011 6:32am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Volume is still relatively high in the dIBL area. Could mean an initiative move down..
Good point there..

Yes of coz. For GU i tend to look for those quartery round numbers. that is why plan for the 1.6050 since this level is sitting on previous demand line trigger..
  • #603
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:37am Feb 25, 2011 6:37am
Quoting tgwhbb
long entered at 3775. But i have a strange feeling about this one so SL set to BE already. Volume at yesterday's POC not shwoing much buying, and ND earlier on the M15 at today's VAL.

Wyckoff analysis suggest price is now testing on PSY as we speak (preliminary supply area)...this is distribution. Of coz it could also recovery slightly back up to the 2b reversal point then continue with the distribution..

sry abit off topic here...

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  • #604
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:57am Feb 25, 2011 7:57am
Quoting kave
Sounds good.

A bit OFF topic here but it is interesting to note that the LVN is sitting right on the WRB break out bar of 13th jan... I guess you are in good hands..

Attachment
chop chop.... I set to be +8 when +70 and go out... when i back my sl already touched...
...
  • #605
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:12am Feb 25, 2011 8:12am
I go with this Thursday VAH and today DVAH BO on usdchf.. targeting Wed naked pocv
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...
  • #606
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:03am Feb 25, 2011 9:03am
Quoting bandung
I go with this Thursday VAH and today DVAH BO on usdchf.. targeting Wed naked pocv
Just as i thought too.

I was watching this for the last few days but my focus was more on AU GU & EU today...

I intend to let it break above the fair value then hop in by monday in the hope of capturing it on the VAH.. Mind u i m still a Wyckoff person but learning the ropes on this to gain additional insights..

tks for your post.
  • #607
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:46am Feb 25, 2011 9:46am
Bandung,
Can you share your volume based POC indicator pl?
quote=bandung;4429946]I go with this Thursday VAH and today DVAH BO on usdchf.. targeting Wed naked pocv[/quote]
  • #608
  • Feb 25, 2011 12:25pm Feb 25, 2011 12:25pm
Some interesting observation of Gbp for the last 2 days...

For both the price open within the VA, Initial balance was then met with responsive selling; on Thursday it was on VAH, Friday was near POC. in both cases range of the bars narrows (spread narrows) which usually suggest weak demand.

Subsequent search for buyers was met with selling tails; on Thursday the tail was off POC & on Fridays the tail off was off the VAL.

In both cases price hit unfair low after selloffs & recovery back to the DVAL of the day...
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  • #609
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:01pm Feb 25, 2011 5:01pm
Quoting alexm
Goodness me!!! Look at AU how it bounce from IBL to DIBH.
Yes, the DIBL was a great help today in the market. Thanks to Tgwhbb for bringing it to our attention.

With that said, I ought to be sure I am calculating it right. Lol

A= IB/2 DIBH=IBH+A DIBL=IBL-A

Is that correct?
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #610
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:34pm Feb 25, 2011 8:34pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Yes, the DIBL was a great help today in the market. Thanks to Tgwhbb for bringing it to our attention.

With that said, I ought to be sure I am calculating it right. Lol

A= IB/2 DIBH=IBH+A DIBL=IBL-A

Is that correct?
HG, what you have calculated is essentially the 1.5x factor. DIBH=IBH+IB, DIBL=IBL-IB.

My small indy does not calculate 1.5IBH/L, but it is easily identifiable visually. From what i've read 1.5IBH is also a value to watch, but not as strong as IB or DIB. Of course today was a perfect example of how 1.5IB works well.

On that note, there is also triple IB extension (TIBH/TIBL). This is generally quite rare and acts as supply/demand when there is a large trend type day that obviously extend beyond DIB levels.
Change is the only constant
  • #611
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:45pm Feb 25, 2011 8:45pm
Let's see.

if the IB is 10 then double that would mean 20.

So 10/2=5 IBH+5 and IBL-5 will give you a range twice as large as the starting one or 20.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #612
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:45pm Feb 25, 2011 8:45pm
A quick look at the H4 for weekly profiles. This week's POC is roughly 3685, which is practically identical to the weekly POC from the week of Jan 23. In fact EU has not been able to establish a weekly POC above this level.

My plan is for shorts down to that POC and watch for reaction there. The POC is also near this week's VAL around 3660. This is expected flow since this week's VAH was rejected, so 80% rule dictates price should flow through to the other extreme of value.

This week was a P profile, indicative of short covering - see http://www.profiletraders.com/education/glossary/ - so i expect a continuation up after a bounce near the POC/VAL.

what is your plan for next week?
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Change is the only constant
  • #613
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:51pm Feb 25, 2011 8:51pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Let's see.

if the IB is 10 then double that would mean 20.

So 10/2=5 IBH+5 and IBL-5 will give you a range twice as large as the starting one or 20.
That math is right, but the double initial balance calculates the range extension from the initial balance extremes (H/L) not the extension of the initial balance itself.

refer to http://www.mypivots.com/articles/art...aspx?artnum=32
Change is the only constant
  • #614
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:57pm Feb 25, 2011 8:57pm
http://jamesdaltontrading.com/blog/2...itial-balance/
Change is the only constant
  • #615
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:02pm Feb 25, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting tgwhbb
That math is right, but the double initial balance calculates the range extension from the initial balance extremes (H/L) not the extension of the initial balance itself.

refer to http://www.mypivots.com/articles/art...aspx?artnum=32
Well I not going to fight about it. I will say that you next post proves my idea is better: the IB range matters. Its how MP defines trends, day types, range extention and much more.

**EDIT** I'm Done. It is up to the readers of this thread to understand that when I refer to the DIBH or DIBL I am not refering to the same thing as TGWBB is refering to when he uses the same terms.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #616
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm Feb 25, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Well I not going to fight about it. I will say that you next post proves my idea is better: the IB range matters. Its how MP defines trends, day types, range extention and much more.
yep, don't disagree that the IB range is crucial in determining day types. That is in fact why my indi calculates avg IB range for each session (although the calc seems to be buggy at the moment).

IBH/L, 1.5IBH/L, and DIBH/L simply provide intraday supply/demand lines, the importance of each is determined by the IB range itself.
Change is the only constant
  • #617
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:58pm Feb 25, 2011 9:58pm
interesting, hadn't looked at the monthly profile yet, just now realizing monday is the last day of February.

EU has broken out of VAH and came back to test it today with the lowest 4hr volume in the last 4 days at the same time. monthly VAH is roughly 1.3735.

February is essentially a normal distribution profile, meaning balance is found. that is a good sign for bulls i think since EU balanced lower in December, trended up on January, and re-balanced higher in February.

Plus price was accepted back into November's value area, and this month it tested Novembers VAL and was rejected. So applying the 80% rule states price should make its way to November's VAH, roughly 1.4150. Certainly a longer term target, but a target none the less.

It seems 3735 is key. if it holds then the break out of this month's value will signal higher prices sooner rather than later. That negates my previous post about my plan for next week. Need to think about this some more over the weekend.

Thoughts welcome/encouraged.
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Change is the only constant
  • #618
  • Feb 26, 2011 3:02am Feb 26, 2011 3:02am
EU Monthly MP
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The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #619
  • Feb 26, 2011 5:03am Feb 26, 2011 5:03am
Quoting tgwhbb
http://jamesdaltontrading.com/blog/2...itial-balance/
Thank you for the link...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #620
  • Feb 26, 2011 8:29am Feb 26, 2011 8:29am
Quoting mima
EU Monthly MP
Mima, what does each line represent?
Change is the only constant
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