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  • #28,261
  • Feb 24, 2011 5:30am Feb 24, 2011 5:30am
It was just your use of the term "ponzi scheme" that I thought was odd. Correct me if I am wrong but you seemed to imply that all currencies are in one way or another a form of this.

I also thought it was odd that you thought the USD was much more of a ponzi scheme (which I do not agree with) when compared with the AUD.

Why do you think it is a "ponzi scheme"?

Anyway, in post 28,201 I stated my thoughts on this Pair. Worked out pretty well so far.

It is all relative I guess.
  • #28,262
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:25am Feb 24, 2011 6:25am
Quoting JanPoko


There was another one on this thread, shorting all the time and surely blowing his account twice a week or so.
I see he's got some brothers here. Good for real traders, someone has to provide cash for the game...
Yeah, I might blow my account, but thats the risk we all take... I dont know whats gonna happen in an hour, day, week, month.. All I can do, is PREDICT (based on smthing.) and REACT.... "real traders" - Dont think there are such ppl. there are ppl who can predict, react etc better than others, but we are all influenced by the same thing - uncertainty and contingency....

I am a newbie in forex, but I'll develop my skills (some day) and the only way I can do it, is by learning from my mistakes and preferably, by others' mistakes..
Im on a bonus account, so if I blow it up, nothing happens (I just learn from it)

All I can say is, that it goes up, and it goes down...
  • #28,263
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:04am Feb 24, 2011 7:04am
Quoting Astroman
It was just your use of the term "ponzi scheme" that I thought was odd. Correct me if I am wrong but you seemed to imply that all currencies are in one way or another a form of this.

I also thought it was odd that you thought the USD was much more of a ponzi scheme (which I do not agree with) when compared with the AUD.

Why do you think it is a "ponzi scheme"?

Anyway, in post 28,201 I stated my thoughts on this Pair. Worked out pretty well so far.

It is all relative I guess.
It's a matter of dealing with national debt. As far as I know, US FED is buying a significant portion of US Treasury securities paying them with money it is printing.
An interesting article, investigating this practice appeared about two years ago:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24655662/E...cheme-Dec-2009

Practically all nations with big national debt tend to follow the similar techniques. US debt, however is probably the biggest...
  • #28,264
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:42am Feb 24, 2011 8:42am
Longer term direction is bullish. However, price struggles to break major resistance of 1.0200-1.0250 for past few months. Currently going up to test downward trendline and resistance @ 1.02. Sell limit @ 1.0200. RR - 1:2.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FY3qd5Ea3C.../audusd_d7.png

Regards,
suirad
  • #28,265
  • Feb 24, 2011 9:27am Feb 24, 2011 9:27am
Quoting FX-Petra
I was tempted to close above 1.0050 last night---but decided against it. I am going to hold for more upside. If it does not happen, I have triple intrest Wend. to sooth the pain!!

Regards,
Triple intrest Wend. got the party started yesterday around 2 pm est. Momentum continues north. My longs are looking good! I am not going to mess around with this wedge agiain. I will exit my longs near 1.0150. If the wedge breaks to the upside, I will re-enter on a pull back. If the wedge holds, then I will wait for move back to the bottom and re-enter long there. I know ely and others are calling for a big drop, and I'm sure it will happen at some point. However, I am not touching the short button on this pair agian until we break 9800. Good trades to all!

Regards,
  • #28,266
  • Feb 24, 2011 12:51pm Feb 24, 2011 12:51pm
Quoting Astroman
It was just your use of the term "ponzi scheme" that I thought was odd. Correct me if I am wrong but you seemed to imply that all currencies are in one way or another a form of this.

I also thought it was odd that you thought the USD was much more of a ponzi scheme (which I do not agree with) when compared with the AUD.

Why do you think it is a "ponzi scheme"?

Anyway, in post 28,201 I stated my thoughts on this Pair. Worked out pretty well so far.

It is all relative I guess.
Astro...don't take him seriously...never seems to mention his traded position..but seems to be in profit everytime..obviously a daydreamer
I've been out several times today...don't seem to be going on about me profits!!


Anyway...news just out!..they may re-evaluating whether to go through with the whole program of QE2 due to improved economics...that should see this pair back to 0.8600 pdq


http://twurl.nl/xhpdlu

Fed's Bullard says it's time to debate completing QE2
Thu Feb 24, 2011

A senior U.S. Federal Reserve official said on Thursday he thinks it is time to consider tapering off or scaling back a $600 billion bond-buying program because of an improved economic outlook.

"The natural debate now is whether to complete the program or to taper off to a somewhat lower level of assets," St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said at a Chamber of Commerce breakfast held at Western Kentucky University.

Bullard said that he expects the topic to be discussed at a Fed meeting in March. He said he would be ready to scale back the program then.
  • #28,267
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:02pm Feb 24, 2011 2:02pm
I would not put too much faith in what Bullard says. He is the biggest hawk on the board and has been against all this easing from the start. US economy is still very weak. Housing is getting worse, not better. If the Fed were to signal they were fininished with their loose money policy, there would be a huge move. It would, quite frankly, be shocking. Mr. Bernanke continues to repeat, ad nausium, that rates will be exceptionally low for a long, extended time. Yes, Bullard would like to end QE 2 and top it off with a 2% emergency rate hike. It is not happening anytime soon. We may well see a decline in A/U exchange rate.... but it is very doubtful the drop will happen due to rising US intrest rates.

Regards,
  • #28,268
  • Feb 24, 2011 6:26pm Feb 24, 2011 6:26pm
Quoting JanPoko
It's a matter of dealing with national debt. As far as I know, US FED is buying a significant portion of US Treasury securities paying them with money it is printing.
An interesting article, investigating this practice appeared about two years ago:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24655662/E...cheme-Dec-2009

Practically all nations with big national debt tend to follow the similar techniques. US debt, however is probably the biggest...
Big national debt, yes.

But also the biggest economy.

There is more to it than the Fed just authorizing the US Treasury to print notes.
They don't HAVE to print money to buy treasuries.

I understand why one might call it a Ponzi scheme based on the derivative nature of fractional reserve banking, but that's not entirely the case.

Try this on for size

http://www.creditloan.com/blog/2008/...her-countries/
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #28,269
  • Feb 24, 2011 8:09pm Feb 24, 2011 8:09pm
-
  • #28,270
  • Feb 25, 2011 4:38am Feb 25, 2011 4:38am
Quoting Bruce Flea
Big national debt, yes.

But also the biggest economy.

There is more to it than the Fed just authorizing the US Treasury to print notes.
They don't HAVE to print money to buy treasuries.
....
http://www.creditloan.com/blog/2008/...her-countries/
Thanks for the link, Bruce, interesting article. But, eventhough its arguments are pretty soothing, they do not invalidate the assertions in the analysis I mentioned.

And don't forget. US economy is still driven by a massive borrowing, ie. the debt still significantly increases every day. Should the US stop borrowing immediately, the economy would collapse at once. This, however, cannot continue for ever, because there is a limited capacity (and trustfulness) of creditors - result of which is contemporary "ponzi" style of financing the loans.

And yes, of course, FED doesn't have to print money, it was just a "poet hyperbole", with an evident meaning.

But someone has already said it in better wording than me some posts above, bright future of Aussies and US citizens is uncomparable...
  • #28,271
  • Feb 25, 2011 5:33am Feb 25, 2011 5:33am
aud is so bulish....firm and hard while the others r lose and sideway...why?
  • #28,272
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:06am Feb 25, 2011 6:06am
for it doesn't like getting shorted? seems to have (nearly) topped for now. will be waiting for the US data to make up its mind where it wants to go.
  • #28,273
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:39am Feb 25, 2011 6:39am
Something I'm now patiently watching on AUDUSD H4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD.png Size: 66 KB


Cheers
CanuckCT
  • #28,274
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:42am Feb 25, 2011 6:42am
Quoting papaki
for it doesn't like getting shorted? seems to have (nearly) topped for now. will be waiting for the US data to make up its mind where it wants to go.
On Friday?
Any direction is possible and, possibly, short lived...
  • #28,275
  • Feb 25, 2011 6:46am Feb 25, 2011 6:46am
what's happen ???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #28,276
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:33am Feb 25, 2011 7:33am
Aud should break 1.02 next month and punish those who work against trend. Jamie on fxcm called for short aud. lol he is a reliable contrarian indicator. When he shorts, the pair will go up.
  • #28,277
  • Feb 25, 2011 7:44am Feb 25, 2011 7:44am
Quoting mry2001
Aud should break 1.02 next month and punish those who work against trend. Jamie on fxcm called for short aud. lol he is a reliable contrarian indicator. When he shorts, the pair will go up.

dont blame him dude.. thats what happen when u tried to SELL at the highest point possible..

Anyway, the trendline still hold. I expect EU to turn down a bit, probably about 38% retracement before retest the trendline

i will monitor AU closely form there as any rejection / breakout will bring significant move
  • #28,278
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:25am Feb 25, 2011 8:25am
Maybe if those calling for shorts would just keep quiet and stop banging about their prediction which is based on pure Alice-in-Wonderland stuff, AUD would actually make a significant drop below parity. Right now, my grandma's sneeze is causing the AUD to drop more than when those contrarian posts appear.
  • #28,279
  • Feb 25, 2011 8:55am Feb 25, 2011 8:55am
The aud topped out at 1.0256 on December 31st. It then dropped app 4.4% to around the 98 handle. The large speculators position was at a record of 64,000 contracts net long. On February 8 the large specs had a net long position of app 72,000 contracts. So, if and when they decided to take profits the move lower could be substantial. Trading is about probability, so when that many people are net long aussie, it makes further upward progress tougher until some weak longs get cleared out. Just my take.
  • #28,280
  • Feb 25, 2011 9:09am Feb 25, 2011 9:09am
Long 5 Lots.... to the moon we go.
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