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GBP/USD - one trade a day

  • #441
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:39pm Feb 20, 2011 6:39pm
New week starts tomorrow morning. With this past Friday being somewhat of a "split' (my IBFX demo gave us a small winner, my OANDA demo stopped us out), for the purposes of whether or not we make the target this month, I am counting Friday's LOSER as the trade.

Below is the current trading journal for February. We have just under 9% remaining to hit our 10% goal for the month.

Beginning in March, I'll be posting a new myfxbook link to track the progress in demo. I'll also be opening a small live account for this system effective March 1st. I also think I'm going to put the "9 pip rule" that we discussed earlier in play for both my live and demo accounts. Finally, more likely than not, I'll also begin to fade away from this thread around then, as there isn't much left to say about this system. I think it's pretty clear, there has been some good discussion and suggestions for improvement.
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  • #442
  • Feb 20, 2011 11:04pm Feb 20, 2011 11:04pm
Regardless of President's Day in the USA, are we still trading today?
  • #443
  • Feb 20, 2011 11:26pm Feb 20, 2011 11:26pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Regardless of President's Day in the USA, are we still trading today?
I was also wondering about holidays. This one is a US holiday therefore not as much impact (if any). How bout if we get a UK or European holiday? I personally won't trade it if it's a UK holiday.
  • #444
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:56am Feb 21, 2011 7:56am
cgrey, in case you already dont know, oanda has started offering MT4 on the fxTrade accounts. i am planning to go LIVE on this from March
  • #445
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:59am Feb 21, 2011 7:59am
Quoting roundrock
cgrey, in case you already dont know, oanda has started offering MT4 on the fxTrade accounts. i am planning to go LIVE on this from March
Thanks. Yeah, I saw they are offering them by invitation only. I requested one on Friday, maybe I'll get one in time

I've also been considering a broker change for my main trading account. One of the new brokers I'm looking at offers somethng similar to OANDA's "sub accounts" which might also work for this.

Thanks for the heads up!
  • #446
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:32am Feb 22, 2011 9:32am
Hi,

I am signing up for this and will do some forward testing. I really like your MM approach.

Maybe I am looking the other way, but I cannot seem to find the link to your Myfxbook. Where have you posted it? Or do you keep a journal at another place or at all?


Regards

Archie
  • #447
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:43am Feb 22, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Archie
Hi,

I am signing up for this and will do some forward testing. I really like your MM approach.

Maybe I am looking the other way, but I cannot seem to find the link to your Myfxbook. Where have you posted it? Or do you keep a journal at another place or at all?


Regards

Achim
There originally was a link in the first post to a myfxbook demo. Unfortunately, IBFX (where that demo was) apparently limits their demos to 30-days now - they used to be unlimited - so the account became disabled). Therefore, I removed the link. I've posted some screenshots of my manual journal for Februrary. Beginning in March, I will post a new link to a myfxbook journal for a new demo I'll be setting up for this system with OANDA (hopefully, that demo will not expire). From now for the rest of Feburary, the only "journal" will be my posts.

Reults of forward testing for 2011 have been clearly documented in this thread thus far. To recap:

January: +6% (this was from 11-January through 31-January) +10% would have already been hit before 11-January had we started from 1-January.

Februrary: currently -1.33%. Depending on the broker, some folks are slightly up for February so far. Last Friday, the 08:00 candle moved just close enough to stop out on some brokers, but not far enough on others and reversed for a small gain.

Early next week, I will be updating the first post to include the final results for January and Februrary, as well as the link to the new myfxbook tracking page.
  • #448
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:51am Feb 22, 2011 9:51am
Looking at the limited charts I have on this computer am at right now, looks like a slight gain on today's trade, +5-10 pips? Is this correct?
  • #449
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:52am Feb 22, 2011 9:52am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Looking at the limited charts I have on this computer am at right now, looks like a slight gain on today's trade, +5-10 pips? Is this correct?
It was another REALLY close day (like Friday). I actualy stopped out, by 0.1 pips.
  • #450
  • Feb 22, 2011 10:29am Feb 22, 2011 10:29am
On my demo it was within about a pip of stopping out. It was still a loss though of about 6 pips at the close of the candle.
  • #451
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:16pm Feb 22, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting cgrey
It was another REALLY close day (like Friday). I actualy stopped out, by 0.1 pips.
Yea I was actually looking at a free internet chart (crappy) earlier and it looked like the wick of the 8 GMT candle got close to -20 pips, but I couldn't tell.

On a side note, currencies were being strongly driven by fundamentals today. The Libya thing had oil skyrocket which carried over to the majors. Kiwi got smashed with the earthquake.
  • #452
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:47pm Feb 22, 2011 1:47pm
Hi all,

Couple of new things to say but please remember the below is only my opinion of how this system can be modified to make it profitable for me. All the below is based on leaving all profits in the account and compounding day by day - an EA makes the maths straight forward and allows testing of any time period with a given monthly target / drawdown.

Anyway I've been having good success with a capped drawdown of 8% and combining this with a 1% risk per trade. This allows more failed days before we hit drawdown, as we know the key seems to be hanging in there for the big candle that will make target for us. This is working for me (in testing) and seems a safer way to play it.

However - a couple of other fun things I have been spending some time on:

Let our winners run - should we close at 9? what if we check for profit / loss before deciding what to do?

How about adding to our winners? - this is where we can up the risk and hopefully the reward - what's to stop us adding lots as we start to see pips?

Hmm so what if we put the two together and maxed the risk out to 6% a day and compounded $10,000 from Jan 1st 2007 to today?

...funny you should ask - see attached!


--------------


Of course the astute will pass this off as nothing more than variables tweeked for best result on a set of fixed historical values. They would be right of course, they would probably also mention we should look at the drawdown and ask if we would trust a strategy to run our accounts down by over 60%? Very true, but they would be missing the point.

In presenting these results I only intend to show what could be possible based only on the 12 / 8 candle relationship and the monthly money management provided to us by cgrey. How the profit and risk is managed is down to each of us.

Are these results going to continue? Nobody can say, this system didn't seem to work at all before 2007, what is important to me is to look at what is happening NOW the same as with any trade we would take.

Spend a couple of days on this and develop something from it that works for you. I think it is worth the time.

So this EA is now available for the first 10 users at the reduced price of only $149 after this I'll be increasing the price to $299, so get in quick <-- that's irony there...


dave.
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Click to Enlarge Name: results.jpg Size: 48 KB
  • #453
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:59pm Feb 22, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
I was also wondering about holidays. This one is a US holiday therefore not as much impact (if any). How bout if we get a UK or European holiday? I personally won't trade it if it's a UK holiday.
I have been thinking about this as well.

Technically, US holidays should not affect the London trading as we are trying to exploit a particular pattern at the London market opening which is the biggest forex trading location in the world. Having said that, the market was quiet yesterday which was presumably due to the US holiday.

Perhaps as an additional rule, we shouldn't trade during US and UK holidays. The UK holidays are usually at the month ends, which means they shouldn't affect the trading much (I'm hoping we would have reached our target by mid month ). For anyone interested, here is a link to the UK holidays:

http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Governme...heUK/DG_073741

Regards,
  • #454
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:37pm Feb 22, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting Rasi
I have been thinking about this as well.

Technically, US holidays should not affect the London trading as we are trying to exploit a particular pattern at the London market opening which is the biggest forex trading location in the world. Having said that, the market was quiet yesterday which was presumably due to the US holiday.

Perhaps as an additional rule, we shouldn't trade during US and UK holidays. The UK holidays are usually at the month ends, which means they shouldn't affect the trading much (I'm hoping we would have reached our target...
This will inevitably become a personal decision. 2+2 said he would not trade UK holidays. I, on the other hand, will trade them. Someone else had mentioned they will not filter trades out due to the "9-pip" rule, where I have already worked it in to my plan for going live.

When I post my update in post 1 for March, I will identify several suggestions (including this one) that have come up along the way, and recommend people make their own decision on what to use and what not to.
  • #455
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:48pm Feb 22, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting cgrey
This will inevitably become a personal decision. 2+2 said he would not trade UK holidays. I, on the other hand, will trade them.
I was thinking it won't be worth trading on UK holidays because price might flatline for the whole hour and since we start in negative (spread), we might not get too far into positive territory. So figured it might not be worth the risk. However, I could be wrong because sometimes when liquidity is low price spikes drastically. Asia will still be in session, so maybe it is worth trading. Or maybe the best course of action is to see how price has acted over the previous 8 hours. If there was a wild swing then maybe sit out the holiday. If it has been flat, then maybe jump in because it is bound to jump (despite holiday). What I normally do is begin by trading the scenario in question and then stopping if I notice a pattern or have overwhelming evidence . I tend to learn and remember things better when they've cost me real money.

(contrary to what I said before about not trading on UK holiday, but on second thought I will at least start out trading it)
  • #456
  • Feb 23, 2011 4:18am Feb 23, 2011 4:18am
Max SL has been hit for me on Tuesday and today
  • #457
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:03am Feb 23, 2011 7:03am
Quoting puntalara
Max SL has been hit for me on Tuesday and today
I suffered maximum loss today as well, despite trading it manually. Yesterday I was able to make a 19 pip profit by not closing the trade at 9:00 GMT.

I guess losses are part of trading and we should accept it.
  • #458
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:02am Feb 23, 2011 9:02am
Hi,

Does anyone know a similiar pattern for another pair in another session?

I am looking into it, but I have not noticed anything yet. The reason is that I would like an alternative trading option, since I am currently unable to trade at 8-9 GMT and I do not wish to use an EA.

Thankful for any help.

Regards

Archie
  • #459
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:50am Feb 23, 2011 9:50am
Quoting Rasi
I suffered maximum loss today as well, despite trading it manually. Yesterday I was able to make a 19 pip profit by not closing the trade at 9:00 GMT.

I guess losses are part of trading and we should accept it.
i am following original rules, got 22 pips profit. max dd only 3 pips
  • #460
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:54am Feb 23, 2011 9:54am
Quoting roundrock
i am following original rules, got 22 pips profit. max dd only 3 pips
Which way did you enter today (long or short)? I stopped out, and it wasn't one of those days that was even close (at least on both of my demos).
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