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Question to Swing Traders...

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 21, 2011 10:59am Feb 21, 2011 10:59am
That is H4, and D1 traders. How did you do in 2009? My H4 method, traded manually, produced about 215 pips/mo./net on E/U in 2010, and about 1K pips/net YTD. Yet, when I backtested 2009 it was chopped to bits, and I mean to bits. So, was 09' just a bad year for longer TF trading, or was 10' just a good year?? Of course, I could just go back and test 10 years or so manually, but the thought of it gives me hives. Any ansewrs greatly appreciated.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #2
  • Feb 21, 2011 12:39pm Feb 21, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
That is H4, and D1 traders. How did you do in 2009? My H4 method, traded manually, produced about 215 pips/mo./net on E/U in 2010, and about 1K pips/net YTD. Yet, when I backtested 2009 it was chopped to bits, and I mean to bits. So, was 09' just a bad year for longer TF trading, or was 10' just a good year?? Of course, I could just go back and test 10 years or so manually, but the thought of it gives me hives. Any ansewrs greatly appreciated.
you are already turned off by manually backtesting ONE pair for 10 years on the H4 and D1 time-frame? How many trades will you have? maybe 100 to 500 trades? You should be able to log them in within a day. A day's work is too much? Well, with your attitude you are not gonna make it far in this game.

Any answers from other traders will not be worth a lot, cause you trade your own system, and they trade theirs. They might have totally different rules with regards to swing trading giving them a different outcome.
  • #3
  • Edited 4:32pm Feb 21, 2011 12:55pm | Edited 4:32pm
Quoting Custos
you are already turned off by manually backtesting ONE pair for 10 years on the H4 and D1 time-frame? How many trades will you have? maybe 100 to 500 trades? You should be able to log them in within a day. A day's work is too much? Well, with your attitude you are not gonna make it far in this game.

Any answers from other traders will not be worth a lot, cause you trade your own system, and they trade theirs. They might have totally different rules with regards to swing trading giving them a different outcome.
100-110 trades/year on H4. I have been profitable (quite!) 5 yrs. running and off to a good start this year.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #4
  • Feb 21, 2011 1:24pm Feb 21, 2011 1:24pm
Quoting Pippopotamus
100-110 trades/year on H4. I have been profitable (quite!) 5 yrs. running and off to a good start this year.
Okay, sounds good. Well, if I were you I would still just test your system yourself for longer periods. As you may know, such backtests can reveal lots of weaknesses about the system(s) traded and can give you insight why 2009 was a loser with that system.
This is by far better than looking for experiences from other traders in my opinion.

cheers
  • #5
  • Feb 21, 2011 2:09pm Feb 21, 2011 2:09pm
Bro every strategy have good and bad months, for swing and elliot wave traders i think this month and a half in new year 2011 are really bad, for example our company produce for clients 5 losses and 3 wins but its still a profit, some other traders have a bad streak of 8 losses so we must be careful , market is in some consolidation and still looking for a trend, these days scalping is better...

Regards
  • #6
  • Feb 21, 2011 2:53pm Feb 21, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting Custos
Okay, sounds good. Well, if I were you I would still just test your system yourself for longer periods. As you may know, such backtests can reveal lots of weaknesses about the system(s) traded and can give you insight why 2009 was a loser with that system.
This is by far better than looking for experiences from other traders in my opinion.

cheers
regarding 09' from other swing traders. I know there will differences based on method. Yet, it is reasonable to expect some commonality of experience within same category/type of trading. A passing thought turned into this thread. I spend about 60 hrs./wk testing and retesting in an effort to refine my methods... With respect to the method in question, it lost in 09' because it got chopped to pieces on H4 charts(not much better on D1). It is essentially a stop and reverse method with large SLs. 2009 was a bad year for banks. Many failures, or near failures. This chaos was reflected in E/U PA on H4, with quick starts and equally quick reversals throughout much of the year. I will backtest 10 years to get an idea of the variability of results.
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #7
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:30pm Feb 21, 2011 7:30pm
I went back and looked at my 2009 results trading on the daily chart. There were 7 total trades. 1 losing trade, 6 winning trades. Total 2263 pips on EU. While looking at it candle by candle makes it look like it was choppy, EU trended very nicely in 2009. The zoom out button is your friend. The results were in line with most other years.

2010 was a fantastic year and may show up as a great year on your system because it started with a really nice downtrend that continued for about 6 months of the year and 1 trade could have netted 2000+ pips. It turned back around mid year and gave another 3000+ pips (from 2 trades) before going into a wandering mode late in November which continued all through December. 2010 was indeed an exceptional year netting me around 5100 pips for the year.

I am not sure how your trading system operates. Entry and exit rules for example. Although not 100% sure it sounds like you are not holding trades long enough to realize the full benefit of the trend. You have to be incredibly patient on the longer time frames. Thank goodness for EA's otherwise I would probably second guess my trades and jump out too early thinking I know the market better. LOL!
  • #8
  • Edited 5:17am Feb 22, 2011 5:01am | Edited 5:17am
staying power. W1 Supertrend on D1 chart. 45 pd. Donchian Channel with .25, and .75 of channel width indicated. When price is above ST and Heiken Ashi candle body closes above .75 level of channel, Buy. SL, a touch of .25 level. Of course, reverse proceedure for a Sell.
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Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #9
  • Last Post: Feb 22, 2011 5:37am Feb 22, 2011 5:37am
Gbp/Chf, shredded for about 18 months.
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Vincit qui se vincit.
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