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Ichimoku forever

  • #15,821
  • Feb 10, 2011 11:16am Feb 10, 2011 11:16am
Quoting GeraldFX
Please kindly read the following FREE online materials.

1. Ichi Wiki - http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_w...itle=Main_Page

2. Gabor Ichimoku for beginner - http://www.ichimokuworld.com/1/post/...nload-now.html

By understand ichimoku is the first step that can help you reduce your risk.

Good luck!
thanks..
dont want to burn my RM..
need to monitor other pair also other than EU.
  • #15,822
  • Feb 10, 2011 3:54pm Feb 10, 2011 3:54pm
thank you SanMiguel for ur feedback
GeraldFX,i dont have a specific chart to comment.i just wanna learn from your experience with kumo breakouts.
just an update on my new experiment.i monitor 1h charts and i look for Ks,Ts,Ch and kumo to line in one direction(rising if posible) then i drop to 15m for entry,ether a cross or S/R level.dunno why this approach si giving me better results than what i use to do(monitor 15m charts and using 1h for trend)
comments and corrections are highly appreciated!
  • #15,823
  • Edited 8:47pm Feb 10, 2011 8:45pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting mero
thank you SanMiguel for ur feedback
GeraldFX,i dont have a specific chart to comment.i just wanna learn from your experience with kumo breakouts.
just an update on my new experiment.i monitor 1h charts and i look for Ks,Ts,Ch and kumo to line in one direction(rising if posible) then i drop to 15m for entry,ether a cross or S/R level.dunno why this approach si giving me better results than what i use to do(monitor 15m charts and using 1h for trend)
comments and corrections are highly appreciated!
Yellow box - good breakout
Purple box - fake breakout

What did you see in the ichimoku component telling you if it is a good or fake breakout? Do you understand why the ichi wikipedia says that chikou has to be a clear sky to have a good trade?

Take some time to ponder. It's all in the chart. G'luck.
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  • #15,824
  • Feb 11, 2011 3:41am Feb 11, 2011 3:41am
EURGBP:
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  • #15,825
  • Feb 16, 2011 4:54pm Feb 16, 2011 4:54pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Thx, Gerald. NOt to worry I am sure you will be out performing that very soon. Your style of analysis is very sound..

Also, check out the GBPCHF.

The daily candle is failing at the weekly KS.

Also falling trend line running across the 5th Aug/ 18th Nov 2010 highs seems to have capped price on the daily.

Also, the price action reached perfectly to the 61.8% extension of the most recent ABC bottom formation on the daily chart.

A (swing low), B (recent highs just taken out), C (most recent low).

All suggest that a close today below...
Update on the GBPCHF short trade:

1st position - -40pips on 0.3lots (-40*(US1.04/pip*3)= -US124.80
2nd position - +52pips on 0.4 lots (+52*(US1.04/pip*4)= US216.32
3rd position - +142pips on 0.8 lots (+142*(US1.04/pip*8)= US1181.44

Closed position 3 @ 1.5438 +142pips
Closed position 2 @ 1.5438 +52 pips

Stops moved to 1.5540 on 1st position. Risking 102 pips to target 1.5200 handle.

This is an example of how planning to scale into a position can make you some great money when ichi is not offering any opportunities on large enough timeframes.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #15,826
  • Feb 16, 2011 7:17pm Feb 16, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Update on the GBPCHF short trade:

1st position - -40pips on 0.3lots (-40*(US1.04/pip*3)= -US124.80
2nd position - +52pips on 0.4 lots (+52*(US1.04/pip*4)= US216.32
3rd position - +142pips on 0.8 lots (+142*(US1.04/pip*8)= US1181.44

Closed position 3 @ 1.5438 +142pips
Closed position 2 @ 1.5438 +52 pips

Stops moved to 1.5540 on 1st position. Risking 102 pips to target 1.5200 handle.

This is an example of how planning to scale into a position can make you some great money when ichi is not offering any opportunities on large enough timeframes.

Cheers,

4x....
Curious, when you analyze this trade, did you use multiple timeframe or just a single timeframe?
  • #15,827
  • Feb 17, 2011 6:52am Feb 17, 2011 6:52am
Quoting GeraldFX
Curious, when you analyze this trade, did you use multiple timeframe or just a single timeframe?
Hi Gerald.

I watched this pair on the monthly, weekly and daily.

Monthly shows an established falling trend line
Weekly shows another trend line a little closer and shows confluence resistance with the weekly pivots and ichi KS
Daily confirmed the potential for reversal at these levels with price action and failure at key levels (failure to close above 1.56 for 5 days, RSI (6)divergence and MACD (2/12/4) cross signalling momentum was falling. Those RSI and MACD settings I use for daily GBP charts as I find they track quite well.

Cheers.
  • #15,828
  • Feb 17, 2011 7:37am Feb 17, 2011 7:37am
Potential trade setup on GBPJPY now at 1335GMT.

4Hr above kumo and CS has cleared daily pivot and weekly pivot.
1hr, above kumo and CS has cleared pivots
30min broke above kumo, CS now through kumo and pivots

Small retracement in price action at the moment seeing a retest of daily pivot on 30min chart.

Entering with a small 0.1 lot position and willing to add again with 0.3 lots @ 1.3470 (weekly pivot R1 now supporting)

Hope you're all having a good day.

4x.
  • #15,829
  • Feb 17, 2011 9:18am Feb 17, 2011 9:18am
Quoting 4xAddict
Potential trade setup on GBPJPY now at 1335GMT.

4Hr above kumo and CS has cleared daily pivot and weekly pivot.
1hr, above kumo and CS has cleared pivots
30min broke above kumo, CS now through kumo and pivots

Small retracement in price action at the moment seeing a retest of daily pivot on 30min chart.

Entering with a small 0.1 lot position and willing to add again with 0.3 lots @ 1.3470 (weekly pivot R1 now supporting)

Hope you're all having a good day.

4x.
Hi 4x,

did you already enter the trade with 0.1 lot? if so, how would you set SL for this trade?

I see price is still in the cloud (hourly chart), neutral as of now 15:15GMT. price also closed below daily pivot at this point.

I am trying to learn how you view the market, I started to follow ichimoku a month and half ago, and still catching up on this thread since aug 2009 (on page 80 now)

thanks
  • #15,830
  • Feb 17, 2011 10:02am Feb 17, 2011 10:02am
Moved stops to BE on the GBPCHF remaining position @ 1.5398.

Looks like it may get stopped out off a bounce from the 5th Aug 2010 and 18 Nov 2010 falling daily trend line.

If that happens and it holds above the falling trend line then we may be seeing a retest before moving higher and get a confirmation to head long into this pair again soon.

Nice pin forming on the daily down below the trend line showing a failure to hold below will be interesting. Zero risk now though so all good.

Cheers,

4x.
  • #15,831
  • Feb 18, 2011 1:21am Feb 18, 2011 1:21am
AUDUSD 1hr
Consolidation above the ks - looks like it may go further yet...
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  • #15,832
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:42pm Feb 18, 2011 10:42pm
Hey 4x,
Are you using the CS on the previous pivot points, because otherwise you could just use the price on the current pivot points. Maybe i'm missing something. :-s Thanks for all your posts.

Cpt

Quoting 4xAddict
Potential trade setup on GBPJPY now at 1335GMT.

4Hr above kumo and CS has cleared daily pivot and weekly pivot.
1hr, above kumo and CS has cleared pivots
30min broke above kumo, CS now through kumo and pivots

Small retracement in price action at the moment seeing a retest of daily pivot on 30min chart.

Entering with a small 0.1 lot position and willing to add again with 0.3 lots @ 1.3470 (weekly pivot R1 now supporting)

Hope you're all having a good day.

4x.
  • #15,833
  • Feb 20, 2011 2:27pm Feb 20, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting captaincol
Hey 4x,
Are you using the CS on the previous pivot points, because otherwise you could just use the price on the current pivot points. Maybe i'm missing something. :-s Thanks for all your posts.

Cpt
Hi CapitalCol & Stinghurt,

I will answer your posts tomorrow when I have a little more time between trading sessions.

Hope you've all had a great weekend.

Cheers.

4x.
  • #15,834
  • Feb 22, 2011 12:16am Feb 22, 2011 12:16am
just another question.

we see quite often that kijun and teken overlap each other. what does this indicate?

Should we anticipate a trade (if it's in our favor and in good area, ie above, below kumo)?

or does it show a very strong resistance or support? (since both line showing same level)

i guess i want to know what to react when i see this. a breakout or a pullback.

hope this makes sense
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  • #15,835
  • Feb 22, 2011 3:04am Feb 22, 2011 3:04am
Quoting stinghurt
just another question.

we see quite often that kijun and teken overlap each other. what does this indicate?

Should we anticipate a trade (if it's in our favor and in good area, ie above, below kumo)?

or does it show a very strong resistance or support? (since both line showing same level)

i guess i want to know what to react when i see this. a breakout or a pullback.

hope this makes sense
Is that EURJPY? They will usually only overlap when the calculations in the averages make it that way. As you can see this is a strong momentum move that you can't always anticipate.
The best way is to watch for momentum moves and wait for a retrace or consolidation area to gt into the trade. Strong momentum moves often result in a continuation of that momentum after the first wave of profit takers.
  • #15,836
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:00am Feb 22, 2011 5:00am
hi everyone,my summary so far
ive missed eur/aud 15m kbreakout.i was expecting retrace back to flat kumo,but instead it went even further
got 30pips from that usd/chf move..but what caused these moves in almost all euro pairs??
any news? because i cant see anything interesting in the calendar
  • #15,837
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:04am Feb 22, 2011 5:04am
Quoting mero
hi everyone,my summary so far
ive missed eur/aud 15m kbreakout.i was expecting retrace back to flat kumo,but instead it went even further
got 30pips from that usd/chf move..but what caused these moves in almost all euro pairs??
any news? because i cant see anything interesting in the calendar
Risk off in most FX pairs due to conflicts in Libya.
EUR then moved up largely as short covering and also due to Spanish bond auction.
It is not always scheduled news that causes the moves.
  • #15,838
  • Feb 22, 2011 5:10am Feb 22, 2011 5:10am
hmm,i see.i guess thats another unpredictable thing in FX trading.it could happen any time,during any session

thank you,helpful as usual
  • #15,839
  • Feb 22, 2011 9:36am Feb 22, 2011 9:36am
looking at today's ej.
there was a big down move followed by another upmove.

when i looked at hourly chart, price was below kumo and have strong tendancy of retrace after it past S3 (pivot)

How would you trade this pair on the market today?

the market moved 400pips, but i don't know how to take advantage of it.

thanks for your help.
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  • #15,840
  • Edited 10:49am Feb 22, 2011 10:30am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting stinghurt
the market moved 400pips, but i don't know how to take advantage of it.

thanks for your help.
How did you get 400 pips movement? I didnt see that in my EJ H1 chart.

-----------

As much as i am learning as i write, let us get to basic:
1. TS = KS usually happens when there is a big movement.
2. With chikou breaking KS and Price breaking kumo means price requires big momentum to break such important S&R. Usually this will lead to a big price movement.
3. When chikou and price broke the strong S&R, we also know it will head down furthur because of the thin kumo. Thin kumo is usually easily broken.
4. Chikou was in clear sky.
5. Price next support level to watch out is at S1 and S2.

Market psychology:
When that big move broke the TS and kumo support, I will always wait for a pullback. Why do i expect for a pullback is because most short term traders will have taken their profit. This will cause the pullback. I would then re-enter upon the pullback.

Now the question lies at, when the price pullback, where should we enter the market again? TS? KS? Kumo? How can we decide which level will it pullback until?

Another question, how do we determine it was save to long at support 2? Did you see something at support 2 that double confirm you can do a counter trend position with lower risk?

That i leave you to ponder awhile. This is a good discussion.
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