AUD/USD

BROKEN H&S

So, What next please?

about 70 pip down.

Got stopped out...AUDCAD played the same direction of course. Still in 2 other trades myself. Future looks bright!

Took a small 1 lot position long @ 1.0080. Would add another lot in 9980-1.000 area if given the chance. Target on 1st trade @ 1.0155. If I got a dip to 1.000, then 2nd target would be 1.0200 at least. Good trades to all.

Regards,

The only thing that could possibly happen to send this currency crashing would be another panic like 07/08, interest rate cuts etc......IMO
Unlikely yes, but i have a gut feeling i never ignore.

oil and gold going crazy, stocks down?

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Large earthquake in NZ, many people killed...

Didn't know the loss of life was involved. Quite sad if so...

Spot on! Couldnt agree more

Been my best day by far :-)
Closed most positions @ 0.9988....lov this pairing.

Hoping it'll jump a tad so I can back in.

http://www.bsdfin.com/wp-content/upl...-AM-1-hour.png

Wander if it will get back above 1.0050...got a guttish feeling, with all the tension globally, & possible uprising in China...this pair could be testing 0.8600 sooner then expected.

I hear what you are saying. I have been leaning SHORT on this pair since it got up to around 1.02 and I have made some Pips but have not maximized them like I should have. Missed out on the drop this evening (EST).

1.0050?

In my opinion ( which might not be saying much ) I think it most certainly will. This drop is a bit of an overreaction so I will wait before I start entering my SHORTS again. 1.0080 is the area I will start get interested again and I do think we will see it by the the end of the week. Then...who knows.

As for me, I will wait till it gets back up there and then start slowly adding SHORTS and shoot for at least near .98.

Some things that might influence the course of this pair possibly over the next couple of weeks is the confluence of bad domestic economic news with bad international news (the Middle East). Likely bad domestic economic news: - Collapse of (another) major retailer to join book retailer Borders Australia - clothing company Colorado - Bad profit reports from other major retailers - The almost certain collapse of Brisbane toll road company RiverCity Motorway. - Bad reports from coal companies who haven't been able to get stuff to market because their mines have been flooded out for the last few months (and are still flooded). - The biggest NZ banks are subsidaries of the major Australian ones so we might hear some bad news from there. - Possible revision downwards of Q3 GDP results to negative (as it was barely positive and only positive due to expected good harvests which have been washed away). - Possible negative Q4 GDP numbers. Those things will likely congregate next week.
I highly suspect there are a bunch of other highly indebted companies, especially those who rely on discretionary spending, who are lurking in the shadows waiting to go into voluntary administration. The ones listed are just the ones I've heard about. Retail has been very dismal for a while now.

There was the just released news that business confidence was sagging even before the floods: http://www.news.com.au/business/busi...-1226009989564

And survey results showing 10% of first home buyers who bought in the last 2 years have either sold or want to sell and 20% would sell if interest rates went up another 1.5 percentage points. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/pro...-1226008703929

Later on in May there is likely to be a harsh austerity budget from the Federal Government (they need to pay for the floods and they are obsessed with returning the budget to surplus). Not sure if that will be positive/negative for the AUD though. It is likely to target "middle class welfare" such as family benefits which probably won't help discretionary spending. Another named target is pushing people off welfare benefits.

As far as I see it, the real question is (from a fundamentals POV) is can the high commodity prices make up for an uncertain international environment, sagging domestic consumer economy, at best stagnating real estate, and almost certain large government cuts in spending? That really is the bet that people are making. That high commodity prices (even if they can't sell the commodities for another couple of months yet) will trump all.

One problem is from watching the Aussie the last couple of months I'm not sure fundamentals will do anything. I mean the AUD *rose* during the worse of the Brisbane floods. Maybe commodity prices really do trump all...I'm losing faith

And no-one seems to agree with me that the fundamentals are bad anyway

Here's hoping I don't lose too much money. Otherwise, it's back to the chocolates.

Excellent summar, if i may say so Anne

Absolutely agree with you on many fronts, if not all.
What might also derail this currency pair, is the possibility they may have to knock the interest down a peg or two, due to floods, business, mortgage payments pressure, household etc!

What has been interesting is, good news sent the Aus$ up, BUT so did the bad news!!
Now in times of genuine global concerns, with high tensions spreading like measles, we're surely set to see the Aussy economy to understand the meaning of the words "Credit Crunch" & "Recession"!

Biggest problem which has been overlooked as far as the Aus$ is concerned, is the China effect. Infact, its been overlooked as Aus$ fair value goes...and now we may have some sort tensions flaring up in China!..

China's revolution is set to pick up with government depts not having any respect for the people with runaway food & house prices and years of loose monetary policies!

This has all the hall marks of retesting 0.6000.
My target remains at 0.8600-0.8900.

"The online protest appeal is likely to compound the apparent concern among Communist Party leaders that the recent uprisings against authoritarian governments in the Middle East and North Africa could inspire similar unrest in China"

http://twurl.nl/u06eqa

While I do appreciate your support ely, I have to say that you are a bit of a contrarian indicator on this forum and I really want the AUD to go down. *ducks rotten tomatoes thrown at me by ely* Er, sorry.

On a serious note, to be perfectly honest I think the Chinese threat to commodities is overrated in the short term. There will be a Chinese handover of government in 2012 and to save face the chinese will pull out all stops to make sure everything looks OK until then. 2012 onwards is fair game especially as I heard the new leadership is not particularly in favour of the current investment bubble in China. The uncertainty about their intentions alone might have a big effect. I think a bigger short-term threat to commodities is when QE2 ends mid-year and there is no QE3 to replace it - remember Ron "End the Fed" Paul is now in charge of the congressional oversight of the Fed. Also given large rises in food and gas prices in the US all it would take is the NY times to link the increasing cost of living of unemployed Americans to QE2 and we will see angry mobs (OK writing their Congressman rather than rioting, but still) who already hate Bernanke's guts for bailing out the banks. Given the Tea Party forced the GOP leadership to propose bigger budget cuts than they originally intended I think they have the power now to prevent QE3. What would happen if all that sweet cheap leverage is pulled out from under the feet of the commodity markets? come to think of it, would the end of QE2 have an effect on the carry trade directly as well?

With Australia's luck just as Gillard implements her harsh austerity budget in May serious doubts about QE3 start emerging. So just as the government implements austerity the commodity boom they were implementing austerity to balance crashes. Oh and if I'm right about a housing bubble just as the March quarter housing results come out negative. Haha. I think someone out there really hates this country.

Still, recent past history has made me paranoid about the AUD *not* going down. I think I might start having nightmares where the world is falling apart and the AUD is there floating above me going "Ha ha sucker". I need more chocolate.

Doesn't matter what the genuine nobular trader does Anne...contrarian to the rampers or long holder?...i've had some recent longs for the day trade on this pair..nothing wrong in that as long as its paying its way into my account

...overall, when you see good aswell as bad news sending this pair up...you know there is dark nippled forces at play, trying to wobble you out of your shorts, via stops, fear...you know and feel this is one pair primed for several weeks of massive price correction.

We wait & see...would still like to short it one more time nearer 1.0150 though!
Wishing............before the whack down to 0.8600-0.8900

Safe trading

Bouught 2 lots overnight @ 1.0000 to go with 1 lot @ 1.0080. Lets's see if we range back to the top!

Regards,